More On Monthly Death Counts In Iraq

The Brookings Institution recently updated their Iraq Index in mid-September 2009. The newest edition includes updated monthly death statistics. At first, Brookings relied upon several sources, including their own analysis of Iraq Body Count's statistics, and the United Nations. Currently, they use U.S. government numbers based upon occasional briefings and reports by the State and Defense Departments. These come in the form of charts, which Brookings then interprets. That's the reason why the numbers are rounded to the nearest tens.

The Iraq Index figures are presented alongside the other major sources on casualties, Iraq Body Count, icasualties.org, the Iraqi Ministries, and the Associated Press. All five sources follow the same general pattern. First, 2009 has not been as deadly as 2008. According to Brookings there were an average of 386.6 deaths per month in the last six months of 2008 compared to 276.6 deaths per month in the first half of this year. If looked at in quarters, Brookings, and the other counts all go up and down over the last five quarters. The Iraq Index shows a decline from an average of 450.0 deaths in the third quarter of 2008, to 323.3 in the fourth quarter, and 253.3 in the first three months of 2009, before deaths go back up to 300.0 in the second quarter. Brookings does not have statistics for September 2009, but the other sources show deaths going down in the third quarter of the year compared to the second.

Iraqi Deaths

	Brookings Institution	Iraq Body Count	icasualties	Iraqi Ministries	Associated Press
2008
July	500	584	419	465	510
Aug.	450	592	311	431	475
Sep.	400	535	366	440	503
Oct.	350	528	288	318	446
Nov.	270	473	317	340	360
Dec.	350	522	320	316	393
2009
Jan.	270	276	187	191	242
Feb.	230	343	202	258	288
March	260	416	278	252	335
April	340	484	347	355	371
May	240	332	188	165	225
June	320	488	367	438	447
July	220	395	240	275	309
Aug.	300	537	439	456	425
Sep.	N/A	296	158	203	238
Averages
3rd Qtr. 2008	450.0	570.3	365.3	446.3	496.0
4th Qtr. 2008	323.3	507.6	308.3	324.6	379.6
1st Qtr. 2009	253.3	345.0	222.3	233.6	288.3
2nd Qtr. 2009	300.0	434.6	300.6	319.3	347.6
3rd Qtr. 2009	N/A	409.3	279.0	311.3	324.0
Last 6 months of 2008	386.6	539.0	336.8	385.0	447.8
First 6 months of 2009	276.6	389.8	261.0	276.5	317.5

SOURCES

Associated Press, “Iraq: Key figures since the war began,” 11/3/08
- “Iraq: Key figures since the war began,” 1/2/09
- “Iraq: Key figures since the war began,” 10/1/09

Gamel, Kim, “U.S. monthly toll new low for Iraq,” Associated Press, 8/1/08

O’Hanlon, Michael Campbell, Jason, “Iraq Index,” 9/22/09