Friday, February 5, 2010

2009 Pattern of Violence In Iraq Continues Into 2010

Despite predictions that violence would increase before the March 2010 elections, casualties in January followed the same pattern that was set in 2009. Beginning in April 2009 to the present, the number of fatalities has gone up and down each month. Iraq Body Count for example, recorded 205 deaths in November 2009, 426 in December, and 236 in January 2010. All the other groups that follow Iraqi violence have reported the same pattern.

Large bombings in Iraq resulting in ten or more casualties were also down for the month with only ten in January resulting in 100 dead and 407 wounded. That compares to December when there were 25, causing 246 deaths, and 851 wounded. Since August 2009, those bombings have followed the same pattern as fatalities overall, going up and down each month.

As usual, Baghdad province had the most casualties last month with 50 attacks, 94 deaths, and 318 wounded. Ninewa was second with 69 attacks, 42 dead, and 101 wounded, followed by Anbar, Diyala, and Tamim as the five most violent governorates for January. Baghdad has been the center of politics and fighting since the U.S. invasion. In Anbar, Al Qaeda is trying to get revenge for the tribes turning on them, and the sheikhs have on going political battles that sometime result in violence. The other three provinces have mixed Sunni, Shiite, Kurdish, and minority populations, and insurgents and Islamists have been trying to exploit these divisions for their own gain.

Violence and deaths are down overall to their lowest levels since the overthrow of Saddam in 2003. The main cause was large Sunni participation in the January 2009 provincial elections. That was the culmination of tribes and insurgents turning against Al Qaeda in Iraq, and the Sunnis wanting to join the political process after boycotting the 2005 vote. There has been little change in the country since the local balloting, which is probably why violence has hit a plateau, and not gone down any more. The 2010 elections were originally seen as another chance for Sunnis to join the government, but the recent turn of events in the campaign with the banning of candidates and accusations of Baathist plots, may derail that. The one good thing about the casualty pattern is that it means the March voting will be relatively peaceful, but February will probably have a high number of attacks.

Iraqi Deaths – January 2010
Iraq Body Count: 245
Press Reports: 213
Associated Press: 177
Icasualties: 135 
Iraqi Ministries: N/A

Attacks/Incidents – January 2010

The numbers before each province correlate to the numbers on the map

1. Baghdad
Attacks: 50
Dead: 94 + 1 Iranian
Wounded: 318 + 5 Iranians

14. Ninewa
Attacks: 69
Dead: 42
Wounded: 101 + 1 American

13. Anbar
Attacks: 13
Dead: 17
Wounded: 28

3. Diyala
Attacks: 13
Dead: 13
Wounded: 53

17. Tamim
Attacks: 26
Dead: 13
Wounded: 35

2. Salahaddin
Attacks: 8
Dead: 4
Wounded: 36

Southern Iraq: Attacks: 11
10. Babil: 3
5. Maysan: 2
12. Najaf: 2
9. Qadisiyah: 2
6. Basra: 1
4. Wasit: 1
Dead: 30
Wounded: 124

Likely Special Group Attacks In Southern Iraq
1/1/10 U.S. camp rocketed in Qadisiyah
1/9/10 IED hits U.S. patrol in Qadisiyah
1/11/10 U.S. base in Hilla mortared

Mass Casualty Bombings – January 2010
Bombings: 10
Dead: 100
Wounded: 407

SOURCES

Associated Press, “Iraq: Death toll in Baghdad blasts rises to 41,” 1/26/10
- “Iraq: Key figures since the war began,” 2/1/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 bodies found in Talafar,” 1/4/10
- “2 bombs go off in Mosul,” 1/19/10
- “2 civilians killed separately in Mosul,” 1/17/10
- “2 civilians wounded in Baghdad blast,” 1/13/10
- “2 civilians wounded in Mosul blast,” 1/21/10
- “2 civilians wounded in second southern Baghdad attack,” 1/30/10
- “2 cops killed in Baghdad,” 1/22/10
- “2 killed, 19 wounded in Samarra bombing,” 1/30/10
- “2 persons wounded in blast near Kirkuk,” 1/9/10
- “2 gunmen killed in mortar blast in Mosul,” 1/9/10
- “2 IEDs, 1 bomb wound 3 civilians – BOC,” 1/31/10
- “2 Iraqi soldiers wounded in Saadiya blast,” 1/16/10
- “2 pilgrims injured in 3rd Baghdad blast,” 1/31/10
- “2 policemen gunned down in Baghdad attack,” 1/16/10
- “2 rockets hit house in Kirkuk without casualties,” 1/15/10
- “2 soldiers wounded by gunmen in western Mosul,” 1/29/10
- “3 Christians wounded in Mosul Uni. Blast,” 1/10/10
- “3 civilians wounded by sticky bomb in Baghdad,” 1/27/10
- “3 cops injured in Hit,” 1/7/10
- “3 killed, 6 wounded in Kirkuk blasts,” 1/4/10
- “3 killed, 7 injured in armed robbery in Baghdad,” 1/20/10
- “3 soldiers, kid wounded in Mosul blast,” 1/10/10
- “3 wounded in IED blast south of Kirkuk,” 1/30/10
- “4 civilians killed, wounded in Diala blast,” 1/6/10
- “4 civilians wounded in Baghdad blast,” 1/9/10
- “4 civilians wounded in blast near Baaquba,” 1/18/10
- “4 cops killed, wounded in Falluja blast,” 1/24/10
- “4 people wounded by mortar shell in Kirkuk,” 1/28/10
- “5 civilians injured in thermal bomb blast in Mosul,” 1/4/10
- “5 killed or wounded separately in Mosul,” 1/31/10
- “6 civilians wounded in IED blast in Baghdad,” 1/10/10
- “6 civilians wounded in Wassit blast,” 1/17/10
- “10 wounded in Mosul explosion,” 1/4/10
- “11 civilians killed, wounded in several blasts in Anbar,” 1/7/10
- “12 killed, 20 wounded in Najaf blasts,” 1/14/10
- “Al-Saadiya car bomb casualties up to 4, dead, 3 wounded,” 1/12/10
- “Army forces kill gunman in Mosul,” 1/4/10
- “Army kills suicide bomber west of Mosul,” 1/21/10
- “Baghdad blast kills civilian, wounds 3,” 1/24/10
- “Basketball coach killed in Baghdad attacks,” 1/25/10
- “Blast inside a restaurant northern Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Body found, man wounded in mortar blast in Mosul,” 1/3/10
- “Bomb explodes in Kirkuk without casualties,” 1/21/10
- “Bomb kills boy in Mosul,” 1/9/10
- “Bomb leaves 3 wounded in southern Baghdad,” 1/16/10
- “Bomb wounds civilian in Kirkuk,” 1/27/10
- “Bus attack foiled in Mosul,” 1/16/10
- “Child killed, 4 others wounded near Kirkuk,” 1/6/10
- “Christian shot dead by gunmen in Mosul,” 1/17/10
- “Civilian gunned down in eastern Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Civilian gunned down in Mosul,” 1/11/10
- “Civilian killed, 2 wounded by roadside bomb west of Baghdad,” 1/13/10
- “Civilian killed, 4 wounded in Baghdad blast,” 1/17/10
- “Civilian killed, 20 wounded in Baghdad blasts,” 1/2/10
- “Civilian killed, another wounded by grenade in Basra,” 1/12/10
- “Civilian killed in Mosul Christian – source,” 1/11/10
- “Civilian shot down by gunmen fire near Kirkuk,” 1/30/10
- “Civilian, soldier wounded in checkpoint attack,” 1/16/10
- “Civilian wounded in blast in Anbar,” 1/23/10
- “Civilian wounded in blast near Kirkuk,” 1/16/10
- “Civilian wounded in Mosul attack,” 1/26/10
- “Civilian wounded in shooting inside Mosul restaurant,” 1/14/10
- “Cop gunned down in popular cafĂ© in Mosul,” 1/20/10
- “Cop killed in Babel,” 1/21/10
- “Cop wounded in mortar attack in Mosul,” 1/23/10
- “Eastern Mosul blast casualties up to 36,” 1/20/10
- “Former Iraqi army officer gunned down in Mosul,” 1/26/10
- “Goldsmith kidnapped in Mosul,” 1/14/10
- “Green Zone mortared, says eyewitness,” 1/19/10
- “Grenade hits MNF patrol in Kirkuk,” 1/16/10
- “Gunman injures cop in Baghdad,” 1/28/10
- “Gunman killed by IED in Falluja,” 1/31/10
- “Gunman throws hand grenade at police vehicle in Mosul,” 1/4/10
- “Gunmen arrested after attacking patrol in Mosul,” 1/18/10
- “Gunmen attack humanitarian org. kill 5 employees in Baghdad,” 1/18/10
- “Gunmen blow up house of policeman in Falluja,” 1/20/10
- “Gunmen kidnap civilian west of Mosul,” 1/7/10
- “Gunmen kill 3 guards in Mosul,” 1/3/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 1/23/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 1/27/10
- “Gunmen kill cops in Kirkuk,” 1/25/10
- “Gunmen kill mosque’s Imam in Baghdad,” 1/28/10
- “Gunmen kill woman, daughter in Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Gunmen open fire on gunmen south of Mosul,” 1/19/10
- “Gunmen shoot bank employee in western Mosul,” 1/18/10
- “Gunmen shoot down Iraqi army officer in Baghdad,” 1/2/10
- “Gunmen wound party member in Kirkuk,” 1/2/10
- “Health employee kidnapped in Kirkuk,” 1/26/10
- “Heet blast wounds suburb’s deputy sheriff – source,” 1/7/10
- “House blast kills 2 kids, wound another in Mosul,” 1/6/10
- “IED blast kills civilian, wounds 3 in Baghdad,” 1/2/10
- “IED explodes, another defused in Kirkuk,” 1/19/10
- “IED explodes in southern Ramadi,” 1/21/10
- “IED hits U.S. patrol vehicle in Diwaniya,” 1/9/10
- “IED injures 4 soldiers in Baghdad,” 1/29/10
- “IED wounds 2 civilians in Baghdad,” 1/26/10
- “IED wounds 2 cops in Mosul,” 1/6/10
- “Interior Ministry adviser dies of wounds from Baghdad blast,” 1/23/10
- “Iraqi soldier wounded, IED defused in Mosul,” 1/7/10
- “Iraq soldier wounded in IED blast in Mosul,” 1/14/10
- “Iraqi soldier wounded in Mosul blast,” 1/2/10
- “Joint patrol kills gunman southwest of Kirkuk,” 1/18/10
- “Karada blast casualties rise further; 18 killed 80 wounded,” 1/26/10
- “Katyusha rocket hits a house in southern Mosul,” 1/12/10
- “Khanaqin blast wounds 21,” 1/7/10
- “Kirkuk blast wounds 7 policemen,” 1/28/10
- “Kirkuk’s asayesh deputy chief escapes attempt with IED,” 1/15/10
- “Landmine wounds shepherd south of Kirkuk,” 1/14/10
- “Mayor gunned down in Mosul,” 1/27/10
- “Missan emergency contingents HQ rocketed,” 1/12/10
- “Missan emergency police official escapes attempt on life,” 1/12/10
- “MP’s security personnel wounded in Baghdad blast,” 1/11/10
- “Najaf governor survives assassination attempt,” 1/22/10
- “Officer, civilian wounded in Baghdad blast,” 1/18/10
- “Officer killed, 2 bodyguards wounded by roadside bomb in Kirkuk,” 1/20/10
- “Pilgrim killed, 2 wounded in grenade attack in Baghdad,” 1/30/10
- “Policeman killed, 3 civilians wounded in Falluja blast,” 1/1/10
- “Policeman wounded in small arms attack in Talafar,” 1/1/10
- “Provincial council deputy chief escapes assassination attempt,” 1/17/10
- “Second attack on Christians in Mosul in less than 24 hours,” 1/18/10
- “Soldier wounded by gunmen fire in Kirkuk,” 1/9/10
- “Soldier wounded in IED attack near Kirkuk” 1/21/10
- “Sticky bomb kills cop in Mosul,” 1/20/10
- “Sticky bomb kills, injures 2 civilians in Falluja,” 1/14/10
- “Sticky device kills civilian in Mosul,” 1/24/10
- “Suicide bomber wounds 5 people northwest of Mosul,” 1/27/10
- “Suicide explosion leaves 9 casualties,” 1/13/10
- “U.S. base hit by rockets,” 1/20/10
- “U.S. base in Hilla mortared,” 1/11/10
- “U.S. Camp Echo rocketed in Diwaniya,” 1/1/10
- “U.S. forces kill 4 gunmen in Mosul,” 1/8/10
- “Unknown body found in Kirkuk,” 1/11/10
- “URGENT/Civilian wounded, 4 suspects arrested in Touz Khormato,” 1/31/10
- “Woman killed inside her house in Mosul,” 1/31/10
- “Young man found dead near Kirkuk,” 1/10/10

Canadian Press, “Iraq election worker killed, another kidnapped in run-up to March vote, official says,” 1/11/10

Carter, Chelsea, “US: Key al-Qaida leader killed in Iraq,” 1/28/10

Dawn.com, “Suicide blast kills seven in Iraq’s Anbar,” 1/13/10

DPA, “Toll in Iraq bombing rises,” 1/15/10
- “Two policemen killed, Christian man kidnapped in Iraq,” 1/2/10

Al Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Thursday 07 January 2010,” 1/7/10

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 17 January, 2010,” McClatchy Newspapers, 1/17/10
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 13 January, 2010,” McClatchy Newspapers, 1/13/10
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 20 January, 2010,” McClatchy Newspapers, 1/20/10

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 1,” 1/1/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 2,” 1/2/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 7,” 1/7/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 11,” 1/11/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 16,” 1/16/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 14,” 1/14/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 18,” 1/18/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 22,” 1/22/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 23,” 1/23/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 26,” 1/26/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 27,” 1/27/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 30,” 1/30/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 31,” 1/31/10

Schreck, Adam, “Iraqi President Orders Probe on Elections,” Associated Press, 1/20/10

Trend, “Four killed in attacks by Iraqi militants,” 1/21/10

Xinhua, “9 wounded in Baghdad bombings,” 1/11/10
- “Civilian killed, 7 wounded in Iraq’s Diyala province,” 1/10/10
- “Civilian killed in Iraq’s Diyala violence,” 1/13/10

Yacoub, Sameer, “Al-Qaida group claims hotel blasts in Baghdad,” Associated Press, 1/27/10

2 comments:

amagi said...

I'm trying not to get my hopes up. There is still a month to go

Joel Wing said...

This month already has some large bombings so the pattern appears to be holding up.

Also the March election will be at the beginning of the month and they usually do things like impose a vehicle ban so there shouldn't be as many attacks.

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