Thursday, June 17, 2010

Casualties In Mosul Only Slightly Down In 2010

Mosul remained as violent as ever in May 2010. In that month there were 57 attacks for an average of 1.83 per day. That was an increase from the previous month when there were 47 attacks, for an average of 1.56 per day. The number of deaths stayed at just about the same level for the two months however at 41 in May and 43 in April. The number of wounded almost doubled from 94 in April to 192 in May. That was largely due to a dual car and roadside bomb that targeted Christian students going to Mosul University on May 2 that killed one, and left 90 wounded. There were a total of 223 casualties last month, the highest amount for the year, and the largest dead and wounded since 273 in August 2009.
Overall, despite a drop in attacks and deaths over the last year in Mosul, the number of casualties in the city has not much changed. From June to December 2009 there were an average of 68.0 attacks per month, 2.22 per day. That compared to 58.2 attacks per month from January to May 2010, 1.92 per day. The city also saw a decline in deaths, going from 63.5 per month, 2.07 per day in the second half of 2009, to 43.0 per month, 1.42 per day in the first five months of 2010. That was offset by a small increase in wounded. The last seven months of 2009 saw 112.0 wounded per month, averaging out to 3.66 per day. 2010 has seen 119.8 wounded per month, and 3.96 per day. That has meant the total number of casualties has not really changed in the last year. In the second part of 2009 there were 175.5 casualties per month, 5.75 per day. That only went down a small amount to 162.8 casualties per month in 2010, 5.39 per day.

Attacks and Casualty Statistics for Mosul

Month Attacks/
Avg. Per
Day 
Deaths/Avg.
Per Day 
Wounded/
Avg. Per
Day 
Casualties
Overall/
Avg. Per Day 
Jun. 
73/2.43 
58/1.93 
123/4.1 
181/6.03 
Jul. 
73/2.35 
79/2.54 
169/5.45 
248/8.00 
Aug. 
77/2.48 
102/3.29 
171/5.51 
273/8.80 
Sep. 
72/2.40 
65/2.16 
60/2.00 
125/4.16 
Oct. 
66/2.12 
60/1.93 
82/2.64 
142/4.58 
Nov. 
55/1.83 
37/1.23
71/2.36 
108/3.60 
Dec. 
60/1.93 
44/1.41 
108/3.48 
152/4.90 
Jan. 10 
59/1.90 
38/1.22 
89/2.87 
127/4.09 
Feb. 
61/2.17 
66/2.35 
109/3.89 
175/6.25 
Mar. 
67/2.16 
27/0.87 
125/4.03 
152/4.90 
Apr. 
47/1.56 
43/1.43 
94/3.13 
137/4.56 
May 
57/1.90 
41/1.36 
182/6.06 
223/7.19
Averages 
May-Dec. 09 
68.0/2.22 
63.5/2.07 
112.0/3.66 
175.5/5.74 
Jan.-May 10 
58.2/1.92 
43.0/1.42 
119.8/3.96 
162.8/5.39 

The violence in the city appears to be largely self-sustaining, regardless of national events. In recent months, Al Qaeda in Iraq's leadership was rounded and killed in Ninewa, of which Mosul is the provincial capital, and in Iraq as a whole. That has not really changed the casualty figures in the city however as Mosul remains the only urban center for the country's insurgency. The Arab-Kurd divide is the main reason why the militants still hold sway with the local inhabitants. There is little coordination between the Kurdish peshmerga that patrol half the city and the Iraqi army and police that are in the other, which allows security gaps that are exploited by insurgents. The province also has two separate administrations since the January 2009 provincial elections, one led by the victorious Arab-led al-Hadbaa party, and the other by the Kurdish Ninewa Brotherhood list. Mosul also has a large number of minorities such as Christians, who are caught in the middle of the dispute between the two main ethnicities. As a result, neither has been willing to make the effort necessary to protect minorities, but instead has tried to exploit them in the larger power struggle. There appears to be no resolution on the horizon over this issue, which means that Mosul will remain the deadliest city per capita in Iraq.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, "1 killed, 90 wounded in attack on Christian students in Mosul," 5/2/10
- "1 policeman, 1 civilian killed in Mosul," 5/5/10
- "2 civilians wounded by stun bomb in Mosul," 5/8/10
- "2 cops killed, child injured in Mosul," 5/31/10
- "2 female bodies found in southeastern Mosul," 5/31/10
- "2 Iraqi soldiers wounded in Mosul," 5/27/10
- "2 security guards killed in Mosul," 5/25/10
- "2 Peshmerga fighters killed in suicide bombing in Mosul," 5/10/10
- "2 women injured by IED in Mosul," 5/17/10
- "5 wounded in blast targeting policeman in Mosul," 5/13/10
- "10 civilians wounded in grenade attack in Mosul," 5/1/10
- "11 civilians wounded in blast in Mosul," 5/4/10
- "Al-Iraqiya Alliance candidate dies of wounds in Mosul," 5/24/10
- "Al-Iraqiya member's driver dies of wounds," 5/28/10
- "Attack on police patrol injures 2 civilians in Mosul," 5/3/10
- "Attack on senior police officer's motorcade in Mosul," 5/5/10
- "Army forces kill gunman in Mosul," 5/9/10
- "Army soldier, child wounded in two attacks in Mosul," 5/15/10
- "Blast wounds 2 Iraqi soldiers in Mosul," 5/15/10
- "Car bomb kills soldier, wounds civilian in Mosul," 5/31/10
- "Civilian killed by gunmen in Mosul," 5/18/10
- "Civilian wounded in eastern Mosul," 5/17/10
- "Civilian wounded in eastern Mosul," 5/25/10
- "Civilian wounded in mortar attack in Mosul," 5/1/10
- "Gunmen blow up house in Mosul," 5/13/10
- "Gunmen kill 2 cops in Mosul," 5/20/10
- "Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul," 5/5/10
- "Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul," 5/9/10
- "Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul," 5/27/10
- "Gunmen kill civilian in western Mosul," 5/11/10
- "Gunmen kill Iraqi army soldier in Mosul," 5/8/10
- "Gunmen kill officer in western Mosul," 5/26/10
- "Gunmen kill policewoman in Mosul," 5/4/10
- "Gunmen kill student, injure civilian in Mosul," 5/10/10
- "Gunmen kill woman in Mosul," 5/18/10
- "Gunmen shoot dead guard north of Mosul," 5/7/10
- "Hand grenade wounds civilian in Mosul," 5/3/10
- "IED wounds policeman in Mosul," 5/11/10
- "IED wounds tribal notable's wife in Mosul," 5/27/10
- "Iraqi soldier wounded in blast in Mosul," 5/11/10
- "Kidnapped student found dead in Mosul," 5/6/10
- "Mosul blast casualties up to 95," 5/2/10
- "Old woman gunned down in central Mosul," 5/24/10
- "Police find decayed body in Mosul," 5/5/10
- "Police say gunmen kill civilian in western Mosul," 5/24/10
- 'Roadside bomb kills policeman in Mosul," 5/29/10
- "Roadside bomb wounds 2 soldiers in Mosul," 5/24/10
- "Roadside bomb wounds woman in Mosul," 5/24/10
- "Satellite channel's employee killed in Mosul," 5/12/10
- "Suicide attack kills cop, wounds 10 in Mosul," 5/20/10
- "Two bodies found in Ninewa," 5/29/10

DPA, "Al-Qaeda leader arrested, Imam killed by gunmen in Iraq," 5/4/10
- "Six dead, 23 arrested in string of attacks in Iraq," 5/26/10

Issa, Sahar, "Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq Friday 21 May 2010," 5/21/10
- "Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq Monday 10 May 2010," 5/10/10

Reuters, "FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, May 19," 5/19/10
- "FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, May 27," 5/27/10

Xinhua, "13 wounded in car bombing in northern Iraq," 5/4/10

No comments:

Violence Continues Its Winter Decline In Iraq

Since 2003 insurgent violence has almost always declined in Iraq during the winter. This year is no different as Islamic State attacks have ...