Iraq saw a bloody summer this year as insurgent groups
launched their annual offensive. In three out of the four months during the
season, there were double-digit deaths per day. That now appears to have ended
with a large reduction in casualties in October 2012.
Both Iraq Body Count and Iraq’s ministries reported declines
in the number of monthly deaths in October. Iraq Body Count had 253 fatalities in its initial count for the month. That was over one hundred fewer than
September’s 356, and the second lowest since 230 were killed in May.
Likewise, Iraq’s Defense, Interior, and Health Ministries announced 144 deaths last month, down from 365 in September. For more than a year now, Baghdad’s
reporting on violence has been incredibly low most months, probably because of
politicization by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki who controls both the Interior
and Defense Ministries. The government’s drop in deaths in October then could
be the result of the authorities returning to their poor reporting on the
situation. In comparison, Iraq Body Count has been one of the most reliable
organizations tracking deaths in Iraq using multiple sources, and constantly
updates its statistics as well.
Deaths In Iraq 2011-2012
|
Month
|
Iraq Body Count
|
Iraqi Ministries
|
Avg. Monthly Deaths
|
Avg. Daily Deaths
|
|
Jan. 2011
|
387
|
259
|
323
|
10.4
|
|
Feb.
|
250
|
167
|
208
|
7.4
|
|
Mar.
|
307
|
247
|
277
|
8.9
|
|
Apr.
|
285
|
211
|
246
|
8.2
|
|
May
|
378
|
177
|
277
|
8.9
|
|
Jun.
|
385
|
271
|
328
|
10.9
|
|
Jul.
|
305
|
259
|
282
|
9.0
|
|
Aug.
|
398
|
239
|
318
|
10.2
|
|
Sep.
|
394
|
185
|
289
|
9.6
|
|
Oct.
|
355
|
258
|
306
|
9.8
|
|
Nov.
|
272
|
187
|
229
|
7.6
|
|
Dec.
|
386
|
155
|
270
|
8.7
|
|
2011 Mo. Avg.
|
341
|
217
|
279
|
9.1
|
|
Jan. 2012
|
492
|
151
|
321
|
10.3
|
|
Feb.
|
316
|
150
|
233
|
8.3
|
|
Mar.
|
347
|
112
|
229
|
7.4
|
|
Apr.
|
330
|
126
|
228
|
7.6
|
|
May
|
230
|
132
|
181
|
5.8
|
|
Jun.
|
504
|
131
|
317
|
10.5
|
|
Jul.
|
419
|
325
|
372
|
12.0
|
|
Aug.
|
398
|
164
|
281
|
9.0
|
|
Sep.
|
356
|
365
|
360
|
12.0
|
|
Oct.
|
253
|
144
|
198
|
6.4
|
|
2012 Mo. Avg.
|
364
|
180
|
272
|
8.9
|
In July 2012, Al Qaeda in Iraq’s front organization the Islamic State of Iraq announced its Breaking Walls offensive. The campaign
actually started the month before in June. That can be seen in the average
daily deaths per day based upon Iraq Body Count and the government figures.
Deaths jumped from 5.8 per day in May to 10.5 in June, followed by 12.0 in
July, 9.0 in August, and 12.0 in September. October appears to mark the end of
the campaign, which resulted in daily casualties dropping to 6.4. Insurgents
have been picking up their operations during the middle of every year since
2003. Originally, that coincided with the beginning of Ramadan, but now it is
timed with the arrival of summer. In 2011 for instance, deaths went from 8.9 in
May to 10.9 in June, 9.0 in July, 10.2 in August, 9.6 in September, and 9.8 in
October, before falling to 7.6 in November. These offensives are noted for
increases in media grabbing mass casualty bombings, which account for most of
the jumps in casualties. Fortunately for Iraq, militants can only keep up the
pace of these operations for a few months, before they have to refit and rearm.
That’s what happened in October.
Mortality rates in Iraq have fallen into a predictable
pattern. Shiite pilgrimages at the beginning of the year are targeted, causing
a jump in deaths, then go down until the summer arrives, and casualties usually
soar. That brings about press reports that security is deteriorating in the
country, and a few comments about a renewed civil war. Then the winter comes,
and attacks drop off, only to be repeated the next year. Because much of the
reporting on Iraq lacks context, this annual ebb and flow in violence is
unfortunately overlooked. Instead, the impression is given that Iraq remains a
chaotic country, and misses the dramatic changes that have occurred since the
end of the civil war. Daily attacks are commonplace in the nation, but it has
changed to the point where most average Iraqis can go about living their daily
lives, which is their main concern now, rather than the insurgency.
SOURCES
Agence France Presse, “Iraq violence drops off sharply in
October,” 11/1/12
Iraq Body Count
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