2013 Ends With Deaths And Violence Going Up In Iraq

 

2013 ended on a bad note for Iraq. The open rebellion in Anbar province against the central government was just the latest sign of the decline in the country’s security. Overall, violence increased last year as the insurgency, especially the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant saw a revival. That led to deaths being two to three times as high at the end of the year as the beginning. 2014 looks to be just as bad if not worse.

Last year saw a dramatic increase in violence and fatalities in Iraq. For the year, Iraq Body Count (IBC) recorded 9,475 deaths, Baghdad reported 6,843-7,016, the United Nations had 8,948, and Agence France Presse (AFP) found 6,818. For the first three organizations, those were the highest number of fatalities since 2008, which marked the last year of the civil war. Unlike that time however, 2013 saw deaths pick up in the second half of the year. IBC for example, averaged 11.5 deaths per day in January, 12.7 in February, and 13.0 in March. By the end of the year that had jumped to 35.3 in October, 30.1 in November, and 31.7 in December. For the year IBC averaged 25.9 fatalities per day, which puts it exactly at the same level as 2008 when it was at 26.9. The other three groups followed the same trend with the U.N. going from 10.2 deaths per day in January to 24.4 in December, and AFP increasing from 7.9 per day in January to 21.5 by December. Iraqi government figures saw just as dramatic a rise, but it seemed to be purposely keeping its statistics down at the beginning of the year, and only in the last few months did it release anything that seemed remotely realistic.

Deaths In Iraq 2003-2013

Month/Year	Iraq Body Count	Avg. Daily Deaths	Iraqi Ministries	Avg. Daily Deaths	United Nations	Avg. Daily Deaths	Agence France Presse	Avg. Daily Deaths
2003	4,675	19.0	-	-	-	-	-	-
2004	11,608	31.8l	11,313	30.99	-	-	-	-
2005	16,186	44.2	15,817	43.3	-	-	-	-
2006	29,144	79.8	32,622	89.3	34,452	94.3	-	-
2007	25,519	69.9	19,155	52.4	-	-	-	-
2008	9,839	26.9	9,046	24.7	11,536	31.6	-	-
2009	5,132	14.0	3,682	10.0	4,611	12.6	-	-
2010	4,109	11.2	3,949	10.8	4,855	13.3	-	-
2011	4,147	11.3	2,781	7.6	4,150	11.3	-	-
2012	4,573	12.5	2,174	5.9	3,878	10.6	1,531 (7 mo.)	7.1
Jan. 2013	357	11.5	177	5.7	319	10.2	246	7.9
Feb.	360	12.7	136	4.8	418	14.9	220	7.8
Mar.	403	13.0	163	5.2	456	14.7	271	8.7
Apr.	545	18.1	208	6.9	712	23.7	461	15.3
May	888	28.6	681	21.9	1,045	33.7	614	19.8
Jun.	659	21.9	240	8.0	761	25.3	452	15.0
Jul.	1145	36.9	989	31.9	1,057	34.0	875	28.2
Aug.	916	29.5	365	11.7	804	25.9	693	22.3
Sep.	1,221	40.7	971	32.3	979	32.6	880	29.3
Oct.	1,095	35.3	964	31.0	979	31.5	743	23.9
Nov.	903	30.1	948/1,121	31.6/ 37.3	659	21.9	693	23.1
Dec.	983	31.7	1,001	32.2	759	24.4	668	21.5
2013 Totals	9.475	25.9	6,843/ 7,016	18.7/ 19.2	8,948	24.5	6,818	18.6

Days With 30 Or More Fatalities Per Month In 2013, Iraq Body Count

January 2013 – 5 Total

1/3/13 – 34 killed

1/16/13 – 46 killed

1/17/13 – 31 killed

1/22/13 – 34 killed

1/23/13 – 46 killed

February 2013 – 3 Total

2/3/13 – 40 killed

2/8/13 – 38 killed

2/17/13 – 59 killed

March 2013 – 3 Total

3/14/13 – 34 killed

3/19/13 – 73 killed

3/29/13 – 30 killed

April 2013 – 7 Total

4/1/13 – 55 killed

4/6/13 – 34 killed

4/15/13 – 62 killed

4/18/13 – 30 killed

4/23/13 – 71 killed

4/24/13 – 32 killed

4/29/13 – 34 killed

May 2013 – 10 Total

5/1/13 – 31 killed

5/15/13 – 40 killed

5/17/13 – 93 killed

5/18/13 – 33 killed

5/20/13 – 134 killed

5/21/13 – 46 killed

5/27/13 – 81 killed

5/28/13 – 45 killed

5/29/13 – 35 killed

5/30/13 – 34 killed

June 2013 – 7 Total

6/10/13 61 killed

6/16/13 49 killed

6/18/13 39 killed

6/23/13 36 killed

6/24/13 46 killed

6/25/13 45 killed

6/27/13 34 killed

July 2013 – 14 Total

7/1/13 43 killed

7/2/13 59 killed

7/11/13 59 killed

7/12/13 49 killed

7/13/13 37 killed

7/14/13 66 killed

7/19/13 36 killed

7/20/13 80 killed

7/21/13 41 killed

7/23/13 38 killed

7/24/13 37 killed

7/25/13 48 killed

7/29/13 60 killed

7/30/13 50 killed

August 2013 – 11 Total

8/6/13 – 50 killed

8/7/13 – 34 killed

8/10/13 – 94 killed

8/12/13 – 37 killed

8/15/13 – 42 killed

8/20/13 – 34 killed

8/23/13 – 46 killed

8/25/13 – 55 killed

8/28/13 – 98 killed

8/29/13 – 41 killed

8/31/13 – 30 killed

September 2013 – 18 Total

9/1/13 73 killed

9/2/13 33 killed

9/3/13 87 killed

9/10/13 34 killed

9/11/13 57 killed

9/13/13 50 killed

9/14/13 54 killed

9/16/13 67 killed

9/17/13 50 killed

9/19/13 33 killed

9/20/13 33 killed

9/21/13 116 killed

9/22/13 39 killed

9/23/13 46 killed

9/25/13 47 killed

9/26/13 49 killed

9/29/13 85 killed

9/30/13 62 killed

October 2013 – 14 Total

10/5/13 100 killed

10/6/13 46 killed

10/7/13 59 killed

10/10/13 30 killed

10/12/13 41 killed

10/13/13 68 killed

10/17/13 69 killed

10/20/13 80 killed

10/23/13 74 killed

10/25/13 33 killed

10/26/13 30 killed

10/27/13 74 killed

10/30/13 39 killed

10/31/13 39 killed

November 2013 – 13 Total

11/4/13 – 50 killed

11/7/13 – 33 killed

11/13/13 – 39 killed

11/14/13 – 54 killed

11/17/13 – 48 killed

11/20/13 – 82 killed

11/21/13 – 58 killed

11/23/13 – 48 killed

11/25/13 – 38 killed

11/27/13 – 75 killed

11/28/13 – 38 killed

11/29/13 – 55 killed

11/30/13 – 30 killed

December 2013 – 13 Total

12/1/13 – 44 killed

12/3/13 – 76 killed

12/8/13 – 58 killed

12/9/13 – 30 killed

12/10/13 – 30 killed

12/13/13 – 49 killed

12/14/13 – 29 killed

12/16/13 – 82 killed

12/19/13 – 65 killed

12/20/13 – 33 killed

12/25/13 – 56 killed

12/26/13 – 31 killed

12/30/13 – 31 killed

Bombings like this one in Salahaddin’s Tuz Khurmato on Nov. 24 have unfortunately become the norm in Iraq (EFE/EPA)

Security in Iraq really changed during the summer. There was a steady increase in deaths for the first half of 2013, but in July there was a dramatic jump. IBC had 659 fatalities in June and then 1,145 in July. Likewise the U.N. went from 761 in June to 1,057 in July, and Baghdad had 240 in June and 989 in July. Many commentators and news reports pointed to the government raid upon the Hawija protest site in April as the starting point for the breakdown in stability in the country. July however was the start of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant’s Soldiers’ Harvest campaign. That was characterized by an increase in suicide and car bombs, which cause the greatest number of casualties. The difference between the two halves of the year can been seen with the number of days per month with at least 30 deaths. From January to June there were 35 such days, compared to 83 in the last six months. That pointed the dramatic increase in operations by the insurgency, especially the Islamic State. The Islamists are also attempting to gain control and hold territory, which was seen during the summer when it declared the State of North al-Jazeera encompassing the Mosul area of Ninewa, and the State of South al-Jazeera in Anbar. There were even reports that it established a branch in Kurdistan. The on going rebellion in Anbar can only provide more opportunities for the Islamic State to expand its influence. The fighting in the West also points to the rebirth of the general insurgency, which will only cause more fatalities in the coming months.

Gunmen in Fallujah, Jan. 2014 show the rebirth of the non-Islamic State of Iraq insurgency (AP)

If 2013 ended badly, 2014 looks like it could be deadlier. Parts of Anbar are now in open rebellion against the government, which can only bode ill for the future. If the government is able to regain control of cities like Fallujah and Ramadi, the non-Islamic State insurgency has been revived by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s blunder to try to end the protests in the province. That means months more of hard fighting for the Iraqi security forces, and more and more attacks through western, northern and central Iraq. It was not that long ago that it appeared like the militants were broken, and that most of them would turn to mafia style crime to sustain themselves. The failure of the elite to compromise with each other has led many Sunnis to feel like politics is not a feasible way to address their demands. Now more and more are turning towards violence instead, and Iraq is heading backwards instead of forward as a result.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq casualties from violence (2013)

Dunlop, W.G., “Iraq suffers worst year of violence since 2008,” Agence France Presse, 1/1/14

Iraq Body Count

Al Rayy, “Security expert: Daash establish a new mandate in Kurdistan,” 12/21/13

Salaheddin, Sinan, “UN: Iraq sees highest annual death toll in years,” Associated Press, 1/1/14

Al-Salhy, Suadad, “Al Qaeda Tightens Grip on Western Iraq in Bid For Islamic State,” Reuters, 12/11/13