Iraq Reaches Post-03 High In Oil Exports In February 2014

 

Iraq’s oil industry has been stuck on a 23-month plateau. After two new single point mooring stations were opened in Basra in early 2011 the country’s exports flat-lined. Finally, in February 2014 Iraq reached a new post-03 high in foreign sales with nearly 2.8 million barrels a day in exports. The question now is whether that was a one off event or whether the Oil Ministry is capable of sustaining that effort.

In February Iraq reached a new mark in exports. It averaged 2.799 million barrels a day. The previous high was 2.62 million barrels, which was first achieved in October 2012, and repeated in November and April 2013. The cause of the increase was a huge jump in exports through the southern Basra line. It reached 2.507 million barrels a day up from 2.036 million in January. The northern Kirkuk line exported an average of 292,000 barrels the most since November’s 309,000 barrels. It was quite an achievement to reach this new level since it had been so long since there was any real growth in exports. The problem as ever is whether Iraq is able to sustain anything near this new high. As the numbers since 2011 show just because the nation hits a new mark does not mean that it will be able to maintain it. In fact there’s a good chance that exports will take a dip, rise, and dip again. That’s because the flow of oil is affected by a number of factors outside of the Oil Ministry’s control. Those include bad weather in the winter months that prevent tankers from docking in the south to terrorists and oil smugglers attacking the northern pipeline. Iraq has to establish some consistently to make this new high meaningful, more so because it hopes to reach 3.4 million barrels in exports this year. 

Iraq Oil Exports And Profits 2011-2013

Month	Avg. Exports (Mil/ Bar/ Day)	Avg. Price Per Barrel	Revenue (Bill)
Jan. 11	2.16	$90.78	$6.082
Feb.	2.20	$98.44	$6.064
Mar.	2.15	$107.13	$7.167
Apr.	2.14	$114.26	$7.342
May	2.22	$108	$7.47
Jun.	2.27	$105.17	$7.173
Jul.	2.16	$108.79	$7.311
Aug.	2.18	$104.91	$7.124
Sep.	2.10	$104.89	$6.619
Oct.	2.08	$104.04	$6.742
Nov.	2.13	$106.59	$6.833
Dec.	2.14	$106.18	$7.061
2011 Avg.	2.16	$105.00	$6.913
Jan. 12	2.10	$109.08	$7.123
Feb.	2.01	$112.92	$6.595
Mar.	2.31	$117.99	$8.472
Apr.	2.50	$116.79	$8.795
May	2.45	$103.03	$8
Jun.	2.40	$90.09	$6.453
Jul.	2.51	$97.14	$7.577
Aug.	2.56	$106.22	$8.445
Sep.	2.59	$107.59	$8.371
Oct.	2.62	$105.51	$8.578
Nov.	2.62	$104.32	$8.200
Dec.	2.34	$103.72	$7.551
2012 Avg.	2.41	$106.20	$7.846
Jan. 13	2.35	$104.92	$7.672
Feb.	2.53	$107.66	$7.644
Mar.	2.41	$103.76	$7.772
Apr.	2.62	$98.70	$7.764
May	2.48	$97.23	$7.477
Jun.	2.32	$97.40	$6.799
Jul.	2.32	$101.00	$7.272
Aug.	2.57	$104.45	$8.356
Sep.	2.07	$104.87	$6.511
Oct.	2.25	$102.57	$7.169
Nov.	2.381	$102.57	$7.238
Dec.	2.341	$102.89	$7.471
2013 Avg.	2.388	$102.33	$7.428
Jan. 14	2.228	$102.40	$7.07
Feb	2.799	$101	$7.9

Oil Exports Through Basra 2012-2013
January 2012 1.711 mil/bar/day

February 1.639 mil/bar/day

March 1.917 mil/bar/day

April 2.115 mil/bar/day

May 2.086 mil/bar/day

June 2.085 mil/bar/day

July 2.216 mil/bar/day

August 2.252 mil/bar/day

September 2.178 mil/bar/day

October 2.172 mil/bar/day

November 2.122 mil/bar/day

December 2.022 mil/bar/day

2012 Avg. 2.042 mil/bar/day

January 2013 2.093 mil/bar/day

February 2.196 mil/bar/day

March 2.1 mil/bar/day

April 2.31 mil/bar/day

May 2.19 mil/bar/day

June 2.13 mil/bar/day

July 2.32 mil/bar/day

August 2.30 mil/bar/day

September 1.90 mil/bar/day

October 2.06 mil/bar/day

November 2.281 mil/bar/day

December 2.081 mil/bar/day

2013 Avg. 2.16 mil/bar/day

January 2014 2.036 mil/bar/day

February 2.507 mil/bar/day

Oil Exports Through Kirkuk 2012-2013

January 2012 393,500 bar/day

February 375,800 bar/day

March 400,000 bar/day

April 393,300 bar/day

May 364,500 bar/day

June 316,600 bar/day

July 300,000 bar/day

August 312,900 bar/day

September 420,000 bar/day

October 451,600 bar/day

November 426,600 bar/day

December 325,800 bar/day

2012 Avg. 373,300 bar/day

January 2013 264,500 bar/day

February 339,200 bar/day

March 316,100 bar/day

April 306,600 bar/day

May 283,800 bar/day

June 193,300 bar/day

July 180,600 bar/day

August 270,900 bar/day

September 250,000 bar/day

October 193,000 bar/day

November 309,00 bar/day

December 260,000 bar/day

2013 Avg. 264,200 bar/day

January 2014 192,000 bar/day

February 292,000 bar/day

Oil prices took a dip in February. One barrel of Iraqi crude went for $101 last month, down from $102.40 in January. Thanks to the new level of exports however Iraq was still able to earn $7.9 billion for the month. That was the most since August when the country made $8.356 billion. Iraq needs to hope that prices stay at over $100 million otherwise its budget might be threatened. The 2014 draft budget is for $151 billion, the most in Iraqi history, and 97% of that will come from petroleum revenues.

Iraq hit an impressive level of exports in February 2014. 2.799 million barrels was the most since the 2003 invasion. Iraq needs to maintain this level and hopefully expand upon it, because new oil production is due to come on line this year. Because Iraq lacks adequate storage capacity to hold much excess petroleum if it can’t export it out has to be cut. These are the types of major structural setbacks that the country has been plagued with as it tries to implement its strategic plan for its energy industry. Iraq still has a long way to go, but at least there are some positive signs

SOURCES

Iraq, Ali Abu, Lando, Ben, “Iraq exports rebound,” Iraq Oil Report, 3/4/14

Joint Analysis Unit, “Iraq Budget Execution,” U.N. Iraq, February 2014

Mohammed, Aref, “UPDATE 4-Iraq oil exports hit record 2.8 mln bpd in February,” Reuters, 3/1/14