Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is facing a
political crisis over what to do with President Massoud Barzani. His term ended
on August 20, 2015, but he remains in office. His Kurdistan Democratic Party
(KDP) is pushing for a political deal between party bosses to extend his term
for a second time, while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) and the Change
list wants to limit the president’s powers and change the KRG to a
parliamentary system. The two sides refuse to budge from their positions leading
to a deadlock, which work’s to Barzani’s advantage.
The KDP, PUK and Change List are at loggerheads over
President Barzani. Even though his term expired the KDP insists
that he is still the president, especially now as the region faces
the dual threat of the Islamic State and a financial crisis. The PUK and Change
counter by pointing out the law says the speaker of parliament Yousif Mohammed
should be the acting president for 60 days until a solution is found. This has
led to two dilemmas. First, the KRG like the rest of Iraq has weak rule of law,
so what it says on the books is often ignored, which is why Mohammed will
unlikely be recognized as the interim president. Second, the two sides can’t
agree on what to do next. The KDP wants a deal between the parties like
the one that extended his term for two years back in 2013. If one is not
made the party claims
that Barzani should stay in office until the next elections in 2017. The PUK
and Change want a new presidency
law passed, which would dramatically curtail the powers of the office and
make the president elected by parliament instead of the public. Neither side
appears willing to budge.
The reason why the parties cannot move forward is that they
have almost the same number of seats in parliament. In 2013 the KDP won 38
seats. The smaller parties such as the Communists, the Turkmen, Christians and
Armenians could be in its camp as well giving Barzani up to 14 additional
votes. The PUK and Change List have 42 seats together. That leaves the three
Islamic parties, the Kurdistan Islamic Union, 10 seats, the Kurdistan Islamic
Group, 6 seats, and the Kurdistan Islamic Movement, 1 seat as the swing votes.
The opposition has claimed that the Islamists are in its camp, but that doesn’t
appear to be completely true. The KDP has lobbied the Islamic Union extensively,
and that seems to have split the party. Only
3 out of the party’s 10 parliamentarians signed a petition calling for a
special session of the legislature on August 19 to discuss Barzani’s future.
Then on that day only half of the Islamic Union members showed up meaning there
was no quorum to conduct business. As long as those parties are split there’s
unlikely to be any progress on the matter, which suits Barzani.
Barzani is likely to remain president of the KRG no matter
how this drama plays out. For now he holds de facto power, and can play divide
and conquer with the Islamist parties until he reaches a favorable outcome. If
the KDP wins the argument Barzani will agree to some nominal reforms to appease
the other parties and go about his business as usual. If the PUK and Change win
he can still probably pull off a majority in parliament to remain in office,
while working around any limitations the two parties try to place upon him. As
of now there are no term limits on the presidency. The draft constitution calls
for only two terms for the office, but that has not passed. Barzani has used
that as well to stay in power showing his great agility to play the system to
achieve his goals, which is to stay in power until he feels like stepping down.
This whole affair shows how limited democracy is in Kurdistan, and how laws can
be bent and broken to suit the powerful.
SOURCES
Abdulrahman, Kareem and Zagros, Roman, “Iraqi Kurdistan
democracy tested in presidency row,” BBC, 8/21/15
Coles, Isabel, “As Iraq splinters, Kurds’ own unity put to
test,” Reuters, 7/9/15
eKurd, “Iraqi Kurdistan Parliament fails to convene a
meeting for lack of quorum,” 8/19/15
Millet, “PUK Approves Barham Salih’s Project,” 8/11/15
NINA, “The leadership of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
(PUK) rejects the project solution by Barham Salih,” 8/12/15
Osgood, Patrick and Tahir, Rawaz, “Barzani remains in office
after term expires,” Iraq Oil Report, 8/20/15
- “Kurdistan presidency controversy deepens,” Iraq Oil
Report, 8/18/15
- “Presidency crisis
engulfs Kurdistan,” Iraq Oil Report, 8/10/15
Salih, Hemin, “Kurdish Parties to Establish Supreme
Political Council to Solve Presidential Crisis,” Bas News, 8/18/15
Shafaq News, “KDP: Barzani will remain in office with full
powers after August 20,” 8/11/15
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