Stalemate In Anbar As Islamic State Carries Out Mass Executions In North Iraq

The major security news in Iraq at the start of August 2015 was that the operation to clear Anbar had stalled. Despite government reports that the Islamic State’s defenses in the province were collapsing, the security forces, Hashd al-Shaabi and tribes found themselves fighting over the same towns that they had cleared just a few weeks or days before. The Islamic State also carried out mass executions in Kirkuk and Ninewa costing the lives of over 450 people, and there were setbacks in Salahaddin as well. Despite the insurgents being on the defense, the overall situation has not changed, as the war in Iraq remains in a rough stalemate.

Musings On Iraq counted 154 security incidents in Iraq from August 1-7, 2015. That was just a bit higher than the amount of attacks seen in July. Anbar and Baghdad were tied for the most incidents during the week with 46 each, followed by 24 in Ninewa, 16 in Salahaddin, 8 in Diyala, 7 in Kirkuk, 6 in Babil, and 1 in Irbil. There are always more attacks in the country than what gets reported in the press.

There were 650 reported deaths and 298 wounded during the start of August. The dead were made up of 3 fighters from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), 9 Sahwa, 40 Hashd al-Shaabi, 70 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 528 civilians. The wounded consisted of 8 Sahwa, 25 ISF, and 265 civilians. Iraqi security and medical sources also reported on executions carried out by the Islamic State in Mosul since it took the city in June 2015. When compared to what was already in the press that added another 760 killed by the Islamic State. There are always far more casualties then what gest in the media due to a lack of national coverage and the government suppressing losses.

By province, Ninewa was the deadliest during the week with 374 killed due to IS executions. After that 76 died in Anbar, 64 in Kirkuk, 57 in Baghdad, 47 in Salahaddin, 15 in Diyala, 12 in Irbil, and 5 in Babil.  

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	189	466	464
Jan 8-14	172	733	518
Jan 15-21	189	403	528
Jan 22-28	195	492	899
Jan 29-31	91	306	568
JAN	836	2,400	2,977
Feb 1-7	155	408	688
Feb 8-14	177	443	566
Feb 15-21	169	592	383
Feb 22-28	171	391	705
FEB	672	1,834	2,342
Mar 1-7	176	373	595
Mar 8-14	137	398	656
Mar 15-21	146	1,304	505
Mar 22-28	174	273	406
Mar 29-31	72	205	219
MAR	705	2,553 + 4	2,381 + 150
Apr 1-7	127	218	422
Apr 8-14	137	676	542
Apr 15-21	172	729	717
Apr 22-28	163	497	483
Apr 29-30	50	162 + 7	182 + 299
APR	649	2,282	2,346
May 1-7	154	626	450
May 8-14	154	420	549
May 15-21	124	963	387
May 22-28	108	341 + 1,499	348
May 29-31	38	66	164 + 646
MAY	578	2,416 + 1,499	1,898 + 646
Jun 1-7	132	431	476
Jun 8-14	126	522 + 405	394
Jun 15-21	141	365	373
Jun 22-28	162	306	474
Jun 29-30	61	122	189
JUN	622	1,804	2,012
Jul 1-7	162	436	725
Jul 8-14	140	384	570
Jul 15-21	109	359	597 + 4,024
Jul 22-28	145	527	590
Jul 29-31	53	453 + 8	603
JUL	609	2,167	3,085 + 4,024
Aug 1-7	154	650 + 760	298

Violence In Iraq August 2015 by Province

Provinces	August 1-7
Anbar	46 Incidents 76 Killed: 5 Hashd, 6 Sahwa, 22 ISF, 43 Civilians 42 Wounded: 5 Sahwa, 17 ISF, 20 Civilians 22 Shootings 4 IEDs 3 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Mortars 4 Suicide Bombers Killed 12 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 2 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	6 Incidents 5 Killed: 2 Sahwa, 3 Civilians 15 Wounded: 1 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 12 Civilians 3 IEDs 2 Sticky Bomb
Baghdad	46 Incidents 57 Killed: 1 Sahwa, 3 ISF, 53 Civilians 154 Wounded: 1 Sahwa, 2 ISF, 151 Civilians 9 Shootings 22 IEDs 7 Sticky Bombs 2 Car Bombs 1 Rocket 3 Car Bombs Destroyed
Diyala	8 Incidents 15 Killed: 1 Hashd, 3 ISF, 11 Civilians 29 Wounded: 29 Civilians 1 Shooting 4 IEDs 2 Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Irbil	1 Incident 12 Killed: 3 PKK, 9 Civilians 13 Wounded: 13 Civilians 1 Turkish Air Strike
Kirkuk	7 Incidents 64 Killed: 7 ISF, 57 Civilians 2 Wounded: 2 Civilians 6 Shootings 1 Grenade
Ninewa	24 Incidents 374 Killed: 30 ISF, 344 Civilians + 760 Civilians 4 Wounded: 4 Civilians 12 Shootings 2 Rockets
Salahaddin	16 Incidents 47 Killed: 5 ISF, 8 Civilians, 34 Hashd 39 Wounded: 5 ISF, 34 Civilians 11 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb 1 Suicide Bomber Killed

Car Bombs In Iraq, August 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Aug 1	Saqqara, Anbar – 8 destroyed
Aug 2
Aug 3
Aug 4	Balladries, Diyala	7	10
Aug 5	? x3, Anbar Sadr City x2, Baghdad Khalkis, Diyala Anbar Unit, Saqlawiya, South of Fallujah, Anbar – 6 destroyed Amiriya, Husseiniya & Sadiya, Baghdad – 3 destroyed	32	40
Aug 6
Aug 7
Totals	7 & 17 Destroyed	39	50

The Islamic State’s new car bomb campaign continued into August, but with less frequency. After 29 straight days of bombings from July 4 to August 1 there was a two day break. Then a bombing in Diyala on August 4, followed by 14 on August 5, only five of which were successful. There were a total of 7 car bombs that hit their target and another 17 that were dismantled or destroyed during the week.

After steady progress in Anbar, the operation to retake the province stalled in its fourth week. The government’s forces found themselves fighting for many of the same towns and districts in the Fallujah, Ramadi, and Garma area that they had just cleared. Sjar to the northeast of Fallujah was declared freed on July 13, but then fighting broke out there again on July 15. The government pushed out the insurgents again on July 24, only to have a new operation start there on August 2. Humaira, which is outside Ramadi was cleared on July 14, but then the joint forces had to go back in on August 2. Sakhr was liberated on July 15, and then attacked by government forces again on August 1. Subhait, which is on the eastern outskirts of Anbar between Garma and Abu Ghraib, was cleared on July 15, but then the joint forces had to return on August 4. Saqlawiya to the west of Fallujah was liberated twice on July 19 and August 4. Finally, East Husaiba, which is in between Ramadi and Fallujah has been fought over two times as well. The Anbar offensive is beset by two major problems. First, it was launched with roughly half of the forces used to take back Tikrit even though it encapsulates a much larger area. Second, Baghdad wanted to retake Ramadi after it fell to the Islamic State in May. After IS aired a video of it executing a soldier from Baghdad the Hashd unilaterally said they were going to attack Fallujah instead. Not wanting to look in disarray the government announced that it would focus upon both cities and all the towns in between simultaneously. That has split the forces between two targets and exacerbated the manpower issues. The effect has been that Baghdad lacks the forces to hold many of the areas that it clears, which is resulting in the repeated operations in the same towns. That means even if central Ramadi and Fallujah were to be reached, the joint forces will probably not be able to hold them. Instead, IS will be able to move its forces in and out of the two cities and surrounding towns as it has for the last year and half keeping the government off balance.

In Baghdad the insurgents continued its weekly routine of deadly bombings. As in July most of these were concentrated in eastern and southern parts of the province. There were a total of 17 attacks in the east including two car bombs and 15 in the south. They were the main cause of the 57 killed and 154 wounded during the week. 3 car bombs were also dismantled before they exploded.

Attacks In Baghdad August 2015

Center: 2 – 2 IEDs

East: 15 – 1 Sticky Bomb, 2 Car Bombs, 4 Shootings, 8 IEDs

Outer East: 2 – 1 Kidnapping, 1 Shooting

North: 4 – 2 IEDs, 2 Shootings

Outer North: 3 – 1 IED, 1 Sticky Bomb, 1 Car Bomb Dismantled

South: 8 – 1 Rocket, 1 Sticky Bomb, 1 Shooting, 1 Car Bomb Dismantled, 4 IEDs

Outer South: 7 – 1 Shooting, 1 Sticky Bomb, 4 IEDs

West: 4 – 1 Sticky Bomb, 1 Car Bomb Dismantled, 2 IEDs

Outer West: 1 – 1 IED

The Islamic State picked up its executions in northern Iraq. During the week 61 people were killed in the southern section of Kirkuk province, while IS did away with another 392 in Ninewa. That included a mass shooting of Election Commission workers.

The latest effort to free Baiji in northern Salahaddin faced a setback as well. The security operation has been going on there since the start of July. By July 30 it was said that only one neighborhood of the town was still under IS control. On August 6, however it was reported that the militants moved back into two new neighborhoods. IS controls the surrounding towns and rural areas allowing it to continually threaten Baiji and the refinery there since the summer of 2014. Like in Anbar that means that even if Baiji and the facility is liberated it will not lesson the threat to them posed by IS.

SOURCES

Al Forat, "Casualties of Sadr bombing increased," 8/6/15

Independent Press Agency, "A car bomb and another dismantled north and south Baghdad," 8/5/15

- "Killing and wounding 29 people by double car bomb attacks in eastern Baghdad," 8/5/15

Al Masalah, "Foiled two suicide attacks on a military headquarters south of Fallujah," 8/5/15

Newsmedia, "2 suicide attacks kill at least 12 Iraqi troops near Is-held," 8/8/15

NINA, "An attempt to blow up a car bomb in a residential neighborhood Foiled in eastern Baghdad," 8/5/15

- "Eight vehicle bombs driven by suicide bombers detonated, four houses destroyed and 199 explosive devices detonated west of Haditha," 8/1/15

- "A number of people killed and wounded in Diyala," 8/5/15

Parker, Drew, "Car bomb kills seven in Iraq's Diyala: Local official," News Fulton County," 8/5/15

Shafaq News, "13 ISIS elements killed in outskirts of Saqlawiyah and cut supply road of the organization between Khalidiya and Fallujah," 8/5/15

Sotaliraq, "Foiled an attempt to target al-Anbar University with car bombs south of Ramadi," 8/5/15

Sowell, Kirk, “The Islamic State’s Eastern Frontier: Ramadi and Fallujah as Theaters of Sectarian Conflict,” Perspectives On Terrorism, August 2015