Violence In Iraq Levels Off

The security situation in Iraq has slightly improved since the spring. There are fewer attacks now then the start of the year. Casualties have also gone down, but because so many of those do not get reported or are suppressed by the authorities they are not a good measure for the country anymore. The change is largely the result of the Islamic State being thrown on the defensive.

Security incidents have been going down in Iraq since the start of the year. There were 862 in January compared to 569 in October. The change is better shown with averages that went from over 20 a month for the first four months starting with 27.8 in January, 24.6 in February, 24.9 in March, and 22.1 in April, before slowly decreasing to 19.3 in May, 20.7 in June, 19.6 in July, 19.9 in August, 19.1 in September, and 18.3 in October. The cause of this decline is the fact that the Islamic State has been on the defensive since it took Ramadi in May.

Avg. Attacks Per Day 2015

Jan 27.8

Feb 24.6

Mar 24.9

Apr 22.1

May 19.3

Jun 20.7

Jul 19.6

Aug 19.9

Sep 19.1

Oct 18.3

By province there were 214 attacks in Baghdad, 117 in Salahaddin, 88 in Anbar, 43 in Diyala, 36 in Ninewa, 33 in Kirkuk, 29 in Babil, 5 in Basra, 2 in Kurdistan and 1 each in Maysan and Qadisiyah.

In October there were 1,079 deaths and 1,568 wounded. The dead were made up of 1 U.S. soldier, 6 Sahwa, 32 Peshmerga, 35 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fighters, 82 Hashd al-Shaabi, 98 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), and 825 civilians. The injured were 9 sahwa, 34 Peshmerga, 136 Hashd, 150 ISF, and 1,219 Civilians. Those figures were the lowest for the year. Unfortunately, so many casualties are either not reported, or are censored by the government that they cannot adequately capture the security situation in Iraq anymore.

Violence In Iraq By Week 2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jan 1-7	205	466	464
Jan 8-14	176	733	518
Jan 15-21	193	403	528
Jan 22-28	197	492	899
Jan 29-31	91	306	568
JAN	862	2,400	2,977
Feb 1-7	159	408	688
Feb 8-14	178	443	566
Feb 15-21	175	592	383
Feb 22-28	178	391	730
FEB	690	1,834	2,367
Mar 1-7	186	373	595
Mar 8-14	156	398	656
Mar 15-21	170	1,304	505
Mar 22-28	186	273	406
Mar 29-31	76	205	219
MAR	774	2,553 + 4	2,381 + 150
Apr 1-7	130	218	422
Apr 8-14	140	674	531
Apr 15-21	175	729	717
Apr 22-28	167	497	483
Apr 29-30	51	162 + 7	182 + 299
APR	663	2,280	2,335
May 1-7	159	627	450
May 8-14	161	420	549
May 15-21	128	963	387
May 22-28	115	341 + 1,499	348
May 29-31	38	66	164 + 646
MAY	601	2,417 + 1,499	1,898 + 646
Jun 1-7	133	431	476
Jun 8-14	126	522 + 405	394
Jun 15-21	141	365	373
Jun 22-28	162	306	474
Jun 29-30	61	122 + 58	189 + 106
JUN	623	1,804	2,012
Jul 1-7	161	435	719
Jul 8-14	140	384	570
Jul 15-21	109	359	597 + 4,024
Jul 22-28	145	527	590
Jul 29-31	53	193 + 260	203 + 400
JUL	608	2,158	3,079 + 4,024
Aug 1-7	154	650 + 760	298
Aug 8-14	133	756	640
Aug 15-21	135	345	354
Aug 22-28	136	342	296
Aug 29-31	59	112	169
AUG	617	2,205 + 760	1,757
Sep 1-7	139	285	352
Sep 8-14	144	368	394
Sep 15-21	123	323	488
Sep 22-28	128	190	258
Sep 29-30	39	106 + 19	147 + 8
SEP	573	1,291 + 314	1,647 + 3,003
Oct 1-7	105	291	398
Oct 8-14	144	254	389
Oct 15-21	142	208	279
Oct 22-28	129	216	366
Oct 29-31	49	110	116 + 1
OCT	569	1,079	1,549

Security by Province Oct 2015

Provinces	Oct
Anbar	88 Incidents 164 Killed: 21 ISF, 47 Hashd, 96 Civilians 95 Wounded: 23 ISF, 23 Civilians, 49 Hashd 29 Shootings 6 IEDs 3 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Car Bombs 7 Mortars 1 Artillery 1 Rockets 38 Suicide Bombers Killed 27 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 65 Car Bombs Destroyed
Babil	29 Incidents 27 Killed: 10 ISF 17 Civilians 115 Wounded: 3 Hashd, 32 ISF, 80 Civilians 4 Shootings 20 IEDs 3 Car Bombs 1 Grenade 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Baghdad	214 Incidents 311 Killed: 2 Hashd, 6 Sahwa, 8 ISF, 295 Civilians 839 Wounded: 6 Hashd, 9 Sahwa, 34 ISF, 790 Civilians 49 Shootings 112 IEDs 21 Sticky Bombs 2 Suicide Bombers 2 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Car Bombs 3 Grenades 2 Rockets 1 Mortar 2 Suicide Bombers Killed 1 Car Bomb Destroyed
Basra	5 Incidents 11 Killed: 11 Civilians 30 Wounded: 30 Civilians 1 Shooting 1 IED 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Sound Bomb 1 Car Bomb
Diyala	43 Incidents 105 Killed: 2 ISF, 4 Hashd, 99 Civilians 166 Wounded: 1 Hashd, 165 Civilians 10 Shootings 10 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Car Bomb 13 Mortars 2 Car Bombs Destroyed
Kirkuk	33 Incidents 51 Killed: 1 Hashd, 1 U.S. Soldier, 3 Hashd, 4 Peshmerga, 42 Civilians 18 Wounded: 3 Peshmerga, 15 Civilians 12 Shootings 7 IEDs 2 Rockets 1 Mine
KRG	2 Incidents 35 Killed: 35 PKK 2 Turkish Air Strikes
Maysan	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting
Ninewa	36 Incidents 213 Killed: 18 ISF, 28 Peshmerga, 167 Civilians 31 Wounded: 31 Peshmerga 15 Shootings 11 IEDs 1 RPG 1 Grenade 3 Rockets 2 Mortars
Qadisiyah	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Sticky Bomb
Salahaddin	117 Incidents 160 Killed: 28 Hashd, 36 ISF, 96 Civilians 255 Wounded: 61 ISF, 77 Hashd, 117 Wounded 37 Shootings 28 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs 2 Suicide Bombers 9 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Car Bombs 5 Mortars 1 Rockets 8 Suicide Bombers Killed 3 Suicide Motorcycle Bombers Killed 1 Boat Bomb Destroyed 18 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed 39 Car Bombs Destroyed

Anbar had 164 dead and 95 wounded. The disparity between those two figures when the latter should be 3-4 times higher points to the under reporting on casualties going on in Iraq. There were many days during October when no dead or wounded were reported even though there was heavy fighting going on every day.

During the month the joint forces continued to make progress moving into northern and southern Ramadi. The Anbar Operations Command and the government center, which are near the middle of the city were within reach by the end of the month. The fighting in Fallujah, which is led by the Hashd, has seen far fewer advances. The major problem since the offensive started in July is that there is a manpower shortage so many of the towns surrounding Ramadi and Fallujah continue to switch hands. Government propaganda also fogs the situation as many towns are declared freed even though fighting never stops there.

The Islamic State’s main response to the on going Anbar operations is the use of suicide and car bombs. There were 38 suicide bombes and a whopping 97 vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) launched in October. All of the suicide bombers were killed, and only 5 car bombs got through the defenses. The vast majority of VBIEDs are destroyed by anti-tank missiles, which have been flowing into the country mostly from the U.S. and its allies.

Babil had 27 dead and 115 wounded. Violence in the province remains at a very low level. There are usually only about one incident per day there. There were four car bombs there when there were none in September. It is one of the new targets of IS’s on going car bomb campaign. IS is also using Babil to launch attacks into southern Baghdad and neighboring Anbar.

As the fighting in Iraq has leveled off Baghdad has re-emerged as the main target of insurgents. The 214 incidents there in October led to 311 dead and 838 injured. While there were four successful car bombs in the capital province during the month, the real cause of most casualties were the 112 IEDs and 21 sticky bombs. There were also four suicide bombers, two of which were killed, who attempted to attack Shiite crowds celebrating Ashura.

Southern Baghdad had the most attacks with 70, followed by 53 in the east, 44 in the north, 28 in the west and 17 in the center. Much of the violence in the south is based upon the outlaying towns and Babil. IS is active in towns in the outer north and east as well along with the rural areas just outside of the city. It also funnels in car bombs, weapons and explosives from neighboring Salahaddin and Diyala. Despite IS’s strong presence in Anbar it does not appear to be focused much on western Baghdad. There are a reported 80,000 members of the security forces and more Hashd in Baghdad and its belts, but these units have not been able to break up IS’s networks leading to the capital.

Violence In Baghdad Oct 2015

Center: 17 – 1 Shooting/Robbery, 2 Kidnappings, 4 Sticky Bombs, 10 IEDs

East: 46 – 1 Shooting/Robbery, 1 Grenade, 2 Stabbings, 3 Robberies, 3 Sticky Bombs, 3 Kidnappings, 16 IEDs, 17 Shootings

Outer East: 7 – 1 Shooting, 6 IEDs

North: 31 –1 Car Bomb, 1 Car Bomb Dismantled, 1 Grenade, 1 Strangling, 1 Stabbing, 2 Suicide Bombers Killed, 2 Suicide Bombers, 2 Suicide Car Bombs, 2 Kidnappings, 4 Shootings, 6 Sticky Bombs, 10 IEDs,

Outer North: 13 – 1 Car Bomb, 1 Kidnapping, 3 Shootings, 8 IEDs

South: 42 – 2 Sticky Bombs, 3 Kidnappings, 12 Shootings, 26 IEDs,

Outer South: 28 – 1 Stabbing, 1 Grenade, 1 Mortar, 1 Kidnapping, 1 Sticky Bomb, 8 Shooting, 16 IEDs

West: 22 – 1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed, 1 Kidnapping, 1 Robbery, 2 Rockets, 4 Sticky Bombs, 13 IEDs

Outer West: 6 – 1 Sticky Bomb, 5 IEDs

Unknown: 3 – 1 Shooting, 2 IEDs

IS finally smuggled in a car bomb into southern Iraq hitting Basra in October. This was the first car bomb in that region of the country in a year. That VBIED attack was responsible for all of the month’s casualties in Basra, 11 fatalities and 30 injured.

Violence in Diyala has slowly been climbing upwards in 2015. There were 105 killed and 166 wounded there in October compared to 67 dead and 86 injured in September. A main cause of casualties during the month was a constant rain of mortar fire throughout central Diyala. IS has also become more active in Abu Saida and the surrounding area, which is one of the group’s bases in the governorate. On the other hand there were only 3 car bombs in October, only one of which hit its target compared to seven in September where one was launched almost every week of that month.

Kirkuk is relatively stable. IS still has a stronghold in the Hawija district in the south where it executed 28 people during October. Otherwise there are occasional shootings and IEDs.

Turkey carried out a number of air strikes on northern Kurdistan in October. According to Ankara it killed 169 Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) fighters in four bombing runs during the month.

In Ninewa there were 319 fatalities and 50 wounded. 195 people were executed by IS mostly in Mosul. The majority of the other casualties were Peshmerga who were killed or injured in probing attacks by the IS, which occur every week.

Salahaddin was the other major battlefield in Iraq. The joint forces scored a major victory there taking back Baiji, the refinery and some of the surrounding towns like Siniya, which served as IS bases to threaten the area. There were 160 killed and 255 wounded in the province, but like Anbar, the majority of casualties are being suppressed by the authorities. Also like Anbar IS has launched a huge number of suicide and car bombs against the joint forces. There were 10 suicide bombers, 68 car bombs, 3 suicide motorcycle bombers and 1 boat bomb. Only two suicide bombers and 11 car bombs reached their targets with the rest being destroyed.

There were 178 car bombs in October. 153 were destroyed or dismantled and only 25 were successful. There were 21 straight days of VBIED attacks from October 9 to 29. The current car bomb campaign started in May and has been characterized by over 100 bombings per month.

 

Car Bombs In Iraq, October 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Oct 1
Oct 2
Oct 3	Hurriya & Kadhimiya x2, Baghdad Ramadi & Rashad, Anbar – 7 destroyed	29	74
Oct 4	Subhait, Anbar – 1 destroyed
Oct 5	Husseiniya, Baghdad Zubayr, Basra Khalis, Diyala Bawih, Diyala – 1 destroyed	63	124
Oct 6
Oct 7	Ramadi, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Totals	6 – 12 Destroyed	92	198
Oct 8
Oct 9	Garma, Anbar – 2 destroyed
Oct 10	Tarmiya, Salahaddin Husaiba, north of Ramadi & Thar Thar, Anbar – 15 destroyed	3	10
Oct 11	Albu Jilab, Anbar Univ, Ramadi, Anbar – 8 destroyed Baquba, Diyala – 1 destroyed
Oct 12	Mahmudiya, Babil Baiji x4, Salahaddin North of Ramadi, Anbar – 1 destroyed	3	30
Oct 13	Baiji & Siniya, Salahaddin – 8 destroyed
Oct 14	West of Baiji & Siniya, Salahaddin – 10 destroyed
Totals	6 – 45 Destroyed	6	40
Oct 15	Albu Aetha & Albu Faraj, Anbar – 7 destroyed Baiji & Siniya, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed
Oct 16	Baghdadi, Anbar – 3 destroyed
Oct 17	Baghdadi & Thar Thar, Anbar – 2 destroyed Jbala, Babil – 1 destroyed Sheikh Hamad, Baghdad – 1 destroyed Sukariat, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed
Oct 18	Albu Faraj, Albu Risha, Garma, Anbar – 4 destroyed Siniya, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Oct 19	Yusifiya x2, Babil Baghdadi & Hit, Anbar – 3 destroyed Siniya, Salahaddin – 3 destroyed	2	12
Oct 20	Albu Jalib, Amiriya, East Husaiba, Anbar – 6 destroyed Baiji, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Oct 21	Albu Gleb & Amiriya Fallujah, Anbar Albu Gleb, Amiriya Fallujah & ?, Anbar – 4 destroyed Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed	6
Totals	4 - 42 Destroyed	8	12
Oct 22	Tuz Kharmato, Salahaddin Makhoul, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed	3	42
Oct 23	?, Anbar – 2 destroyed Baiji & Makhoul, Salahaddin – 6 destroyed	5	12
Oct 24	Jeraishi, Anbar Tarmiya x2, Salahaddin Amiriyah Fallujah Garma & Subaihat, Anbar – 3 destroyed Sharif Abbas, Salahaddin – 2 destroyed	8	25
Oct 25	Albu Aetha & Albu Aziz, Anbar Amiriyah Fallujah, Anbar – 9 destroyed	25	34
Oct 26	Baghdadi, Anbar – 2 destroyed Baiji, Salam & Siniya, Salahaddin – 11 destroyed
Oct 27	Thar Thar, Salahaddin Anbar Univ, Baghdadi, Garma & Thar Thar, Anbar – 9 destroyed	2	10
Oct 28	Hawish, Salahaddin Hawish & Thar Thar, Salahaddin – 5 destroyed	10	6
Totals	8 – 51 Destroyed	53	129
Oct 29	Samarra Desert, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed
Oct 30
Oct 31	West Samarra, Salahaddin Abbasid Bridge, Salahaddin – 1 destroyed		3
Totals	1 – 2 Destroyed	-	3
TOTALS	25 – 153 Destroyed	159	382