Iraq Playing Chicken Over Maliki Nomination For Prime Minister

  

Iraq is currently trying to form a new government and is playing a high stakes game of chicken with the United States at the same time.

 

The ruling Coordination Framework chose Nouri al-Maliki as its candidate to be prime minister. President Trump then posted on social media that the U.S. would not support Maliki.

 

Maliki was PM from 2006-2014. He became an autocrat when he was last in office going after his opponents, and was blamed for the Islamic State taking Mosul in 2014. Most importantly for Washington he is aligned with Iran. This is putting the political parties into a bind over what to do next.

 

First, Maliki rejected Trump’s statement saying the United States was interfering in Iraq’s affairs. The Framework reportedly came up with two alternatives either stick with Maliki or allow him to pick another candidate. According to Al Mada Maliki is not giving up on becoming PM again.

 

Maliki and others may also be wondering what exactly the U.S. will do if he takes power once again. The White House has reportedly threatened an array of actions from sanctioning pro-Iran groups and politicians to blocking Iraq’s oil revenues which are deposited in the U.S. Federal Reserve.

 

On the other hand the U.S. has not carried out its previous threats. In December Congress passed a new National Defense Authorization Act which said 50% of aid to Iraq would be withheld until the pro-Iran Resistance is disarmed. There is no word that has happened. In March 2025 the U.S. also ended Iraq’s exemption from sanctions for buying electricity from Iran but that continues. Given that the political class may be questioning how far the U.S. is willing to go to stop Maliki.

 

Second, opponents to Maliki have enough votes to derail his election in parliament if they are able to unite. This is called the “blocking third” where one third of parliamentarians can stop the vote for premier. Currently Maliki has the support of his own State of Law (29 seats), the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) (26 seats), Badr (21 seats), and the Azm Alliance (15 seats) which has a total of 91 seats in the legislature. Against him is former Speaker Mohammed Halbusi’s Progress Party (27 seats), Asaib Ahl Al-Haq (27 seats), the National State Forces Alliance led by Ammar Hakim (18 seats), the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) (15 seats), the Sovereignty Alliance (9 seats), the Services Alliance (5 seats), the National Masses (3 seats) and New Generation (3 seats) with a total of 107 seats. The problem as ever is if all these parties can actually cooperate or will some of them abstain or switch sides.

 

There is also a third possibility. The two main Kurdish parties the KDP and PUK are split over who will become the next president which is required before a prime minister is voted on. The KDP wants the position which has traditionally held by the PUK. Some parties are worried that if the Democratic Party’s candidate current Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein is elected he will not name Maliki because of U.S. pressure. The Framework gave the two parties until this Thursday to decide upon the presidency but there is no sign that will happen since the differences between the two are wide with the KDP attempting to monopolize all the major Kurdish positions in government.

 

The Iraqi parties were hoping that forming a new government would be quick this time but it is running into all kinds of problems as usual. Who will come out on top and how much the Trump administration is able to influence events to its liking is still unclear.

 

SOURCES

 

Agence France Presse, “Iraq PM candidate al-Maliki denounces Trump’s ‘blatant interference,’” 1/28/26

 

Al Alam, “The Framework in the Region to Break the Kurdish Deadlock with a Final deadline and Guarantees to Pass its Candidate,” 2/3/26

- “US Law Pressures Iraq: Security Support Contingent on Resolving the Militias Issue,” 12/17/25

 

Al Mada, “The truck engine breaks down … Loyalists in Kurdistan are working to save Maliki’s nomination,” 2/3/26

 

The National Context, “Trump’s Veto Throws Iraq’s Prime Minister Race Into Turmoil,” 1/30/26

 

Taqi, Ghassan, “Iraqi Government Adviser Tells Alhurra: U.S. Threatened Iraq with Sanctions,” Al Hurra, 1/23/26

- “”The Al-Maliki Problem”: Two Options Facing Iraqi Leaders After Trump’s Threats,” Al Hurra, 1/29/26