U.S. policy towards Iraq under the second Trump administration seems straight forward but it’s not. The main focus is to reduce Iran’s influence in Baghdad. Following that policy has been chaotic however as the U.S. government does not speak with one voice due to the lack of Trump’s leadership.
The second Trump administration continued its Maximum Pressure campaign against Iran. As soon as it took office in January 2025 it began sending messages to Iraq that it wanted the pro-Iran Resistance factions of the Hashd al-Shaabi to be put under state control or Baghdad would face sanctions.
As part of that stance the president selected Michigan businessman Mark Savaya to be his special envoy to Iraq. Savaya immediately began posting on social media that the Resistance needed to be disbanded. Savaya also began working with the Treasury Department to investigate corruption amongst the Iraqi elite.
In July and September 2025 the U.S. sanctioned six companies and an Iraqi businessman for oil smuggling for Iran. That was followed by similar action against the head of the Iraqi Olympic Committee, three bank owners for laundering money, and the Al Muhandis Company which is run by Kataib Hezbollah and receives government contracts for having ties with Tehran.
Finally in January 2026 Trump posted on his Truth Social that he opposed Nuri al-Maliki becoming prime minister again. If he returned to office the president threatened to cut all aid.
This all seems straight forward and that Washington is working towards opposing Iranian influence in Iraq. It’s implementation however has been anything but clear.
Mark Savaya was suddenly dismissed with no official announcement at the end of January. He was replaced by Tom Barrack who is the U.S. representative to Syria and ambassador to Lebanon. Like Savaya he has no diplomatic experience and got his position for being a Trump supporter. There is also no U.S. ambassador to Baghdad. If Iraq is one of the frontlines in Washinton’s Maximum Pressure campaign then why is there no ambassador? That’s because Trump delegates duties to his followers rather than following traditional lines of authority. Since Trump is also largely ignorant of foreign affairs they have large leeway in how policy is implemented.
Savaya for instance, never went to Baghdad. Instead he relied upon social media posts, public announcements and phone calls with Iraqi officials to carry out his duties.
Savaya might have also taken money from Iraqi parties. In October Al Mada reported that Savaya received $5 million from Iraqi officials before he was appointed special envoy to Iraq and after his dismissal Al Alam mentioned that claim as well. The second Trump administration has been involved in blatant corruption so it should be no surprise if these stories prove true.
Another problem with Trump’s policy is that his special envoys and the White House are not apparently working with other agencies. In March the U.S. ended Baghdad’s exemption from sanctions on buying electricity from Iran but the trade continues. In December Congress passed a new National Defense Authorization Act that was supposed to cut aid to Iraq by 50% until the Resistance was disarmed. There is no word that this has been implemented. If Washington hasn’t carried out these threats what’s to say that it will carry out others?
Just as important was the ruling Coordination Framework was caught by surprise by Trump’s social media post that he opposed Maliki. Shiite officials were told that Washington didn’t like Maliki but there was no warning that the president would publicly come out against him. In fact they believed that the U.S. would be fine if he returned to office. Again, this points to the chaotic nature of foreign policy under Trump. The embassy was likely saying one thing to Iraqis and then someone got Trump’s ear and he posted on Truth Social that he was against Maliki. This has been trademark of the president who can surprise his own administration by making a remark on social media that had never been approved or gone through official channels.
At the same time American domestic politics has come into play with Iraq. In January the State Department suspended visas from 75 countries including Iraq. The reason was that they were worried that Iraqis would get on welfare. This was spurred by false stories about fraud by Somali immigrants in Minnesota. State is supposed to do a review before visas are issued again. When that will happen is an open question as Trump and some of his advisors are trying to limit legal immigration to the U.S. This means little to the Iraqi political class as most of them go to Europe and the Middle East rather than America but it’s another sign that Washington doesn’t speak with one voice.
Under a normal administration the president and all his agencies would approve a policy and work together to carry it out. That is not what happens under Trump. Rather people are given special positions because of their connections to the president and can largely act on their own because Trump doesn’t really know about the issue. That means what one part of the government says may not be carried out by others. In Iraq’s case at least it’s clear that the main objective is to counter Iranian influence. Baghdad’s problem is dealing with all the contradictions and uncertainty that is the trademark of Trump.
SOURCES
Agence France Presse, “Iraq PM candidate al-Maliki denounces Trump’s ‘blatant interference,’” 1/28/26
- “Rubio warns Iraq on ties with Iran as al-Maliki sets return,” 1/26/26
Al Aalm, “America begins dismantling the “deep state” in Iraq, and the struggle for influence with Iran enters a new phase,” 10/30/25
- “Middle East Storms Hit Iraq: What Does Tom Barrack’s Arrival in Baghdad Mean?” 2/5/26
- “Trump Drops a Bombshell: Sudani Nominated Me for Nobel Prize, and Our Missiles Halted Iran’s Bullying of Iraq,” 12/3/25
- “US Law Pressures Iraq: Security Support Contingent on Resolving the Militias Issue,” 12/17/25
Bas News, “Trump Expected to Impose Sanctions on Iraq Amid PMF Controversy,” 1/14/25
- “US Sanctions Iraqi Businessman Over Iranian Oil Smuggling,” 9/2/25
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Buratha News, “New details emerge regarding the cancellation of US visas for Iraqis,” 1/14/26
El Dahan, Maha, Azhari, Timour and Pamuk, Humeyra, “US threatens to starve Iraq of its oil dollars over Iranian influence, sources say,” Reuters, 1/23/26
Iraq Oil Report, “Iraq faces political disarray after Trump opposes Maliki’s return,” 2/5/26
Iraqi News, “U.S. targets Iraq corruption, warns over Maliki return,” 1/28/26
- “US sanctions Iraq’s Olympic Chief,” 10/10/25
- “US sanctions network funding Iran-linked militias in Iraq,” 10/10/25
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Kurdistan 24, “Trump Advisor Warns Baghdad: Disarm Militias or Face ‘Severe’ Penalties and Embargoes,” 12/9/25
- “US Warns Iraq Over Oil Smuggling Ties to Iran,” 7/12/25
Al Mada, “Savaya received $5 million and will rebuild the economy and protect minorities,” 10/21/25
- “US Sanctions: Dismantling the State of the Factions … and Western Officials Implicated,” 10/11/25
Al Masalah, “Fuad Hussein: Mark Savaya is no longer Trump’s envoy to Iraq,” 2/1/26
The National, “US envoy says disarming Iraqi militias must involve binding national framework,” 12/22/25
Al Rafidain, “Al-Sudani receives a “special” message from Trump: Disband the militias and support the new Syrian government,” 1/5/25
Reuters, “U.S. special envoy for Iraq Mark Savaya no longer in the post, sources say,” 2/1/26
Rudaw, “US envoy warns Iran-backed militias threaten Iraq’s stability,” 12/12/25
- “US sanctions Iraqi company, bankers tied to pro-Iran militias,” 10/10/25
Shafaq News, “US threatens aid cutoff if Al-Maliki returns to power,” 2/6/26
Taqi, Ghassan, “Iraqi Government Adviser Tells Alhurra: U.S. Threatened Iraq with Sanctions,” Al Hurra, 1/23/26
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