Another Female Suicide Bomber Strikes Baquba, Diyala Province

Another female suicide bomber attacked Iraqi forces today, August 11, in Diyala province’s capitol of Baquba. The woman walked up to a checkpoint near a market and detonated her explosives. One policeman was killed and fourteen others were wounded. The attack came during an Iraqi offensive in the province that started on July 29.

This is either the 27th or 28th female bombing this year. The last incident occurred when three women attacked Shiite pilgrims in Baghdad on July 28. Its been unconfirmed, but the attack the same day against Kurds demonstrating in Kirkuk against the election law also could have been carried out by a woman. Diyala has seen more female bombers than any other province in 2008. Fourteen other attacks have happened there.

There are apparently two main motivations behind women bombers. One is the woman are acting out of family honor. Many of them have had a male relative killed, captured or wounded by U.S. or Iraqi security forces. The women see their act as part of revenge for their family’s name. The other factor is that the insurgency is losing its wind. The number of attacks its able to organize has dropped dramatically, to the point where there is little organized resistance. Islamist groups like Al Qaeda in Iraq are also unable to recruit as many foreign fighters as before that would traditionally carry out these types of suicide attacks. These militants have therefore turned to women out of desperation, and because it is easier for them to get through security. Female attacks also garner more publicity for the insurgents to show that they are still active and capable of sowing chaos. It is a growing tactic as only eight were used in 2007.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Bombs kill six in Iraq’s dangerous Diyala province,” 8/11/08

Juhi, Bushra, “Iraqis suspend military operations in Diyala,” Associated Press, 8/11/08

The Security Situation In Mosul

Operation Lion’s Roar/Mother of Two Springs

On May 10, 2008 Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki launched Operation Lion’s Roar to clear the northern city of Mosul in Ninewa province of insurgents. The second half of the offensive was later named Mother of Two Springs, and resulted in the arrests of over 1,000 suspects, including Al Qaeda in Iraq’s emir of Mosul Ahmad Umar Nasir al-Sabawi, and the capture of various weapons stashes. During the Surge many of Al Qaeda’s fighters and other insurgents had been pushed north and congregated in Mosul, which was considered their last urban stronghold. The city was also a way station for foreign fighters traveling from Syria into central Iraq and Baghdad, and a major source of funding for the insurgency. Maliki had been talking about clearing the city since at least December 2007, but after two large bombings in January 2008 that killed the provincial police chief, the prime minister announced an offensive would be pending. U.S. and Iraqi forces began moving into insurgent strongholds in early February. By the time the actual offensive was announced in May, most of the troops and tactics were already in place such as building a berm around the city and creating outposts within it. After ten days, the Lion’s Roar/Mother of Two Spring was ended and declared a success. The U.S. commander for northern Iraq said attacks were down 85% from 40 per day down to 4-6. A major flaw was that the offensive was made public so far in advance that many insurgents fled before it started.

Still Violent

A cursory look at press accounts of attacks shows little change over the last seven months. In fact, the number of attacks is slightly up in recent months. Here is a breakdown of the number of the violence in Mosul from the four months before Operations Lion’s Roar/Mother of Two Springs and the two months afterwards. “Incidents” are things like finding dead bodies, which is quite common in the city.

January 2008:

• 32 attacks/19 incidents – 1.03 attacks/day – 1.65 attacks & incidents/day
• 109 killed – 3.52 deaths/day
• 362 wounded – 11.68 wounded/day

February 2008:

• 47 attacks/8 incidents 1.62 attacks/day – 1.9 attacks & incidents/day
• 86 killed – 2.97 killed/day
• 80 wounded 2.76 wounded/day
• 6 kidnapped

March 2008:

• 54 attacks/13 incidents – 1.74 attacks/day – 2.16 attacks & incidents/day
• 97 killed – 3.13 killed/day
• 147 wounded – 4.74 wounded/day
• 3 kidnapped

April 2008:

• 53 attacks/10 incidents – 1.77 attacks/day – 2.1 attacks & incidents/day
• 71 killed 2.37 killed/day
• 209 wounded 7.0 wounded/day
• 42 kidnapped

June 2008:

• 49 attacks/incidents – 1.63 attacks/day – 1.97 attacks & incidents/day
• 100 killed 3.33 killed/day
• 279 wounded 9.3 wounded/day
• 4 kidnapped

July 2008:

• 67 attacks/7 incidents – 2.16 attacks/day – 2.39 attacks & incidents/day
• 96 killed 3.1 killed/day
• 111 wounded 3.58 wounded/day
• 2 kidnapped

January had the highest death and wounded because of two huge bombings. One on January 23 that killed ten and wounded 70, and then the next day that killed 34, including Ninewa’s police chief, and wounded 224, that led Maliki to announce a crackdown in the city. In February U.S. and Iraqi forces began their operations to clear the city and attacks and incidents rose from 51 in January, to 55 in February, to 67 in March and 63 in April. Since Operation Lion’s Roar/Mother of Two Spring there has been a slight increase in the number of attacks or killed with 59 attacks and incidents in June, followed by 74 in July. More importantly, the average number of daily attacks actually increased from 1 attack per day in January to an average of around two from February to July. The number killed remained just around 3 per day from February to July, with the lowest being 2.37 killed/day in April and the highest at 3.33 killed/day in June. While the U.S. commander for northern Iraq said that overall attacks were down in the city from 2007 to 2008, their numbers have not changed much this year at all,either before or after the security operation.

Underlying Issues Not Addressed

The reasons why Mosul remains violent before and after the security operation is that the underlying causes of the conflict in the city have not been addressed. Mosul is Iraq’s second largest city with a multi-ethnic population. Sunni Arabs are the majority, approximately 60-70%, but there are also a large number of Kurds, 25%, Shiites 5%, and other minorities such as Christians, Yezidis, Turkomen, and Shabacks. The city itself is divided by the Tigris River that meanders through the middle. In the west is mostly Sunni Arab, while the east is mostly Kurdish. The east and north are mostly Sunni as well because of an Arabization policy carried out by Saddam Hussein who pushed Arabs to move northwards during his reign. Today they are turning more Kurdish however. During the Saddam years Mosul was a Baathist stronghold with many army officers.

After the U.S. invasion, the city fell into chaos with looting and violence that brought up the ethnic divisions. Most importantly, Arabs fought Kurds, and the two main Kurdish parties moved their Peshmerga militiamen into city as a power grab to try to annex it. There were too few U.S. troops to contain this brewing conflict until General David Petraeus and the 101st Airborne Division moved in. General Petraeus set up a local government, started reconstruction projects, and just as importantly forced the Peshmerga out. He was able to maintain a rough balance of power between the contending forces that led to relative stability.

After the 101st was withdrawn however in 2004 the city once again descended into chaos. Many insurgents began moving into the city and joined with the large number of Baathists that were still there. In November 2004 hundreds of fighters stormed the police stations and only 200 of 5,000 remained on duty. The insurgents were able to take over western Mosul and parts of the east. Again faced with too few troops, the U.S. had to call in the Kurdish Peshmerga to restore security. This time, they never left. The Kurdish militia were later given formal recognition as the 2nd Iraqi Army Division.

By 2007 western Mosul was becoming an insurgent and Al Qaeda in Iraq stronghold as many fled the U.S. Surge. Al Qaeda and others posed as the protectors of Arabs against Kurdish expansion. The Islamists also tried to steer away from their previous actions such as killing civilians and their rivals that had alienated Sunnis in other parts of the country. Attacks steadily increased as a result, with Ninewa province being one of the few were deaths and attacks went up during 2007. In November the U.S. launched Operation Iron Hammer that was partly aimed at Mosul, but attacks still increased. This all led up to the January 2008 bombings that led Prime Minister Maliki to announce a new crackdown there. This latest operation, just like the previous one, did not deal with the Arab-Kurdish problem. General Petraeus was the only one that was able to find a rough balance between the two, something that’s never been achieved since.

Conclusion

There are no signs that the Maliki government plans on addressing the ethnic tensions now either. Maliki promised $100 million for reconstruction after Lion’s Roar, and that tribal Sons of Iraq forces outside the city and members of Saddam’s security forces would be integrated into the local security, but there was nothing about addressing the Kurdish intentions to annex the city, or the Arabs opposition to it. Without taking care of the underlying causes of the divisions in Mosul, the city will remain one of the most violent areas in Iraq as attacks are dramatically decreasing in much of the rest of the country. It also puts into question the spate of government crackdowns this year. Basra, Sadr City, and Maysan province are involved in the Shiite struggle for power, and Maliki has been active there trying to sway people to his cause. In northern Iraq however, the struggle is between Sunnis and Kurds, and has gotten little attention after Operation Lion’s Roar. The Prime Minister is trying to portray himself as the nationalist leader of the country, but Mosul may point out that he is only really interested in being the Shiite leader of Iraq.

SOURCES

Adas, Basil, “Al Qaida ‘will put up fierce fight to keep last Iraqi stronghold,’” Gulf News, 5/16/08

Affleck, John, “US Says 7 Militants Killed in Iraq Raids,” Associated Press, 2/15/08

Agence France Presse, “Death toll from bombing in Iraq’s Mosul rises to 13,” 6/3/08
- “Suicide bomber kills 10 in Iraq market attack,” Turkish Press.com, 2/20/08

Ali, Fadhil, “Iraqi Government Launches Operation to Expel al-Qaeda from Mosul,” Terrorism Focus, Jamestown Foundation, 5/20/08

Alsumaria, “New operation against terrorism in Mosul,” 8/9/08

al-Ansary, Khalid, “Iraq offers amnesty in northern Qaeda stronghold,” Reuters, 5/16/08

Areef, Slaem, “Mosul a ghost city as troops press ahead with offensive,” Azzaman, 5/15/08

Associated Press, - “Female bomber kills 3 near bus stop in Iraq,” 3/19/08
- “Iraq: al-Qaeda leader in Mosul arrested,” 5/19/08
- “Iraq: Suicide car bomb targets military convoy, killing 5 civilians,” 7/9/08
- “Police: Female suicide bomber kills 3 in Iraq,” 2/17/08
- “Rocket and mortar attacks kill at least 4 in Baghdad,” 2/18/08
- “US kills 4 suspected militants, captured 5,” 6/7/08

Boot, Max, “We Are Winning. We Haven’t Won,” Weekly Standard, 1/28/08

Brown, Drew, “U.S. troops setting down roots in Mosul,” Stars and Stripes, 2/23/08

Burns, Robert, “The story of Mosul: Few jobs, lots of trouble,” Associated Press, 7/9/08

CNN, “Iraqi militia leader: My influence is waning,” 3/8/08

Cockburn, Patrick, “’Ghost city’ Mosul braces for assault on last bastion of al-Qa’ida in Iraq,” Independent, 5/12/08

Colvin, Marie, “Al-Qaeda is driven from Mosul bastion after bloody last stand,” Sunday Times of London, 7/6/08

DPA, “At least 10 killed, 15 injured in attacks in Iraq,” 2/25/08
- “At least five killed, three wounded in Iraq violence – Summary,” 2/3/08
- “Governor of Iraq’s Nineveh escapes assassination attempt – Update,” 6/7/08
- “Nine injured in suicide bombing in northern Iraq,” 3/16/08
- “Plane engines, explosives, and another grave found in Iraq – Summary,” 3/9/08
- “US troops kill nine suspected al-Qaeda members in Iraq,” 1/18/08

Al Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Monday 11 February 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 2/11/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 01 July 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 7/1/08
- “Round-up Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 26 February 2008,” 2/26/08

Gamel, Kim, “Bombing in Kirkuk kills 2 Iraqi soldiers,” Associated Press, 8/1/08
- “US: Mosul attacks down 85 percent,” Associated Press, 5/21/08

Gordon, Michael, “Pushed Out of Baghdad, Insurgents Move North,” New York Times, 12/6/07

Hammoudi, Laith, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Tuesday 22 April 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 4/22/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Tuesday 29 April 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 4/29/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Wednesday 5 March 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 3/5/08

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Friday 14 March 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 3/14/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Sunday 20 July 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 7/20/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Thursday 7 February 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 2/7/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Thursday 10 April 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 4/10/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Thursday 20 April 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 3/20/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Thursday 24 July 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 7/24/08

Kadhim, Hussein, “Round-up of Daily Violence – Monday 9 June 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 6/9/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence – Monday 14 June 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 1/14/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence – Thursday 6 March 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 3/6/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence – Tuesday 01 April 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 4/1/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence – Tuesday 12 February 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 2/12/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence – Wednesday 23 February 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 2/23/08
- “Round-up of Daily Violence – Wednesday 23 January 2008,” McClatchy Newspapers, 1/23/08

Keath, Lee, “Iraqi military: al-Qaida fleeing Mosul,” Associated Press, 5/25/08

al-Khurafi, Abdulhussain, “Troops mass as attack on Mosul looms,” Azzaman, 5/3/08

Kukis, Mark, “Is Mosul on the Mend?” Time, 3/9/08

Kuwait News Agency, “Attack in Mosul leads to injury of 17 people,” 6/22/08

Lannen, Steve, “Mosul, the next major test for the U.S. military in Iraq,” McClatchy Newspapers, 1/31/08

Levinson, Charles, “Al-Qaeda tries to salvage image,” USA Today, 2/6/08
- “Mosul offensive illustrates U.S. challenges,” USA Today, 2/11/08

Middle East Online, “Mosul bomber kills Iraq police chief,” 1/24/08

Monsters & Critics, “Al-Qaeda suspects, tribal policemen, TV presenter killed in Iraq,” 6/17/08
- “At least 12 killed in Iraq violence,” 3/11/08
- “Christians, churches attacked in Iraq during celebrations,” 1/7/08
- “Female students kidnapped, US soldier dies in Iraq,” 7/6/08
- “Three killed, 13 injured in blasts in northern Iraq (2nd lead,” 4/23/08

Moore, Solomon, “In Mosul, New Test of Rebuilt Iraqi Army,” New York Times, 3/20/08

Multi-National Force – Iraq, “MND-N Soldiers attacked in Ninevah Province (Mosul),” 2/20/08

Nagpal, Sahil, “Governor of Iraq’s Nineveh province survives assassination attempt,” TopNews.in, 6/7/08

Paley, Amit, “Iraqis Joining Insurgency Less for Cause Than Cash,” Washington
Post, 11/20/07

Parker, Ned, “A battle for land in northern Iraq,” Los Angeles Times, 4/5/08

Partlow, Joshua, “In Mosul, a Hopeful Parternship,” Washington Post, 2/24/08

Partlow, Joshua and Tyson, Ann Scott, “Five U.S. Soldiers Are Killed When Convoy Is Hit in Mosul,” Washington Post, 1/29/08

Press TV, “Separate attacks kill 3 in Iraq,” 2/6/08

Quinn, Patrick, “US Military Kills al-Qaida Leader,” Associated Press, 3/2/08

Reuters,
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, April 1,” 4/1/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, April 4,” 4/4/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, April 5,” 4/5/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, April 6,” 4/6/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, April 11,” 4/11/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, April 12,” 4/12/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, April 13,” 4/13/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, April 15,” 4/15/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, April 22,” 4/22/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, April 23,” 4/23/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, April 25,” 4/25/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, April 30,” 4/30/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 1,” 2/1/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 5,” 2/5/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 6,” 2/6/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 7,” 2/7/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 8,” 2/8/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 9,” 2/9/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 11,” 2/11/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 19,” 2/19/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 21,” 2/21/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 23,” 2/23/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 24,” 2/24/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 25,” 2/25/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 27,” 2/27/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 28,” 2/28/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, February 29,” 2/29/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, March 4,” 3/4/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, March 10,” 3/10/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, March 12,” 3/12/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, March 13,” 3/13/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, March 16,” 3/16/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, March 19,” 3/19/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, March 21,” 3/21/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, March 25,” 3/25/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, January 1,” 1/1/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, January 2,” 1/2/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, January 7,” 1/7/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, January 8,” 1/8/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, January 13,” 1/13/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, January 16,” 1/16/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, January 17,” 1/17/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, January 20,” 1/20/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, January 23,” 1/23/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, January 30,” 1/30/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 5,” 7/5/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 7,” 7/7/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 8,” 7/8/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 9,” 7/9/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 11,” 7/11/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 12,” 7/12/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 14,” 7/14/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 15,” 7/15/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 16,” 7/16/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 18,” 7/18/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 19,” 7/19/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 20,” 7/20/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 22,” 7/22/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 23,” 7/23/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 24,” 7/24/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 25,” 7/25/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 28,” 7/28/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, July 31,” 7/31/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 2,” 6/2/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 8,” 6/8/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 9,” 6/9/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 14,” 6/14/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 16,” 6/16/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 17,” 6/17/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 19,” 6/19/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 22,” 6/22/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 24,” 6/24/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 26,” 6/26/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 29,” 6/29/08
- “FACTBOX – Security developments in Iraq, June 30,” 6/30/08

Roggio, Bill, “Operation Loin’s Roar nets more than 1,000 suspects,” Long War Journal.org, 5/16/08
- “US Military denies al Qaeda leader al Masri is in custody,” Long War Journal.org, 5/9/08
- “Walling Mosul,” Long War Journal.org, 3/11/08

Samuels, Lennox, “Al Qaeda Nostra,” Newsweek, 5/21/08

Sudarsan, Raghavan, “Hundreds Held in Iraqi Sweep,” Washington Post, 5/18/08

Tomlinson, Chris, “Iraqi PM visits Mosul to review anti-Qaida campaign,” Associated Press, 5/14/08

Tyson, Ann Scott and Raghavan, Sudarsan, “Gates Cautiously Upbeat on Iraq,” Washington Post, 12/6/07

U.S. Department of Defense, “DoD Identifies Army Casualty,” 1/21/08

Voices of Iraq, “1 gunman killed, 3 corpses found in Mosul,” 4/5/08
- “2 car bombs leave 7 casualties in Mosul,” 7/15/08
- “2 civilians injured by bomb blast in Mosul,” 7/16/08
- “2 civilians killed, 1 wounded in attacks in Mosul,” 4/27/08
- “2 civilians killed, 2 wounded in attacks near mosul,” 4/8/08
- “2 civilians killed by gunmen in Mosul,” 6/10/08
- “2 civilians wounded in IED blast in Ninewa,” 6/2/08
- “2 cops killed, wounded in Mosul,” 3/20/08
- “2 gunmen killed, another wounded in Mosul by helicopter fire,” 3/30/08
- “2 gunmen killed while planting IED in estern Mosul – army,” 1/14/08
- “2 individuals killed in Ninewa,” 7/20/08
- “2 Iraqi soldiers killed in attack in Mosul,” 6/30/08
- “2 killed in Mosul car bomb attack,” 7/20/08
- “2 policemen, student wounded in Mosul blast,” 4/7/08
- “2 policemen wounded in Mosul,” 6/28/08
- “2 soldiers injured by bomb blast in Mosul,” 3/21/08
- “2 students killed on Mosul campus,” 6/16/08
- “2 unknown bodies found in Mosul,” 4/11/08
- “2 women killed in armed attack in Mosul,” 7/15/08
- “3 blasts target U.S. patrols in Mosul,” 3/1/08
- “3 bodies found in Mosul,” 1/1/08
- “3 civilians wounded in clashes between U.S. forces, gunmen in Mosul,” 1/28/08
- “3 cops injured as bomb explodes in Mosul,” 6/13/08
- “3 cops injured by bomb blast in Mosul,” 7/7/08
- “3 cops wounded in 2 attacks in Mosul,” 1/2/08
- “3 soldiers wounded in IED in Mosul,” 6/23/08
- “3 wounded in house bomb in Mosul,” 2/22/08
- “4 civilians wounded in Mosul,” 3/12/08
- “4 cops killed, injured in Mosul,” 1/28/08
- “4 people killed, injured in Mosul,” 6/23/08
- “4 soldiers, 3 civilians wounded in mortar attack in Mosul,” 1/19/08
- “4 wounded in car bomb attack in Mosul,” 4/22/08
- “5 mortar shells hit 2 channels’ building in Ninewa,” 7/31/08
- “8 civilians injured in car bomb explosion in Mosul,” 6/18/08
- “9 killed, 5 wounded until Wednesday afternoon,” 6/4/08
- “10 killed, 18 wounded in Iraq violence,” 4/5/08
- “10 killed, injured in acts of violence in 24 hours,” 6/30/08
- “13 killed, 29 wounded in Iraq violence until Sunday noon,” 4/27/08
- “14 killed, wounded in Iraq until Wednesday afternoon,” 7/30/08
- “19 wounded in 2 simultaneous explosions in Mosul,” 4/15/08
- “92 targets achieved during operations’ first day – Ninewa operations commander,” 5/10/08
- “Academic gunned down in northern Mosul,” 6/15/08
- “Army force mistakenly shoots ‘mentally ill’ man – authorities,” 6/14/08
- “Army officer killed, 18 wounded in separate incidents in Ninewa,” 3/23/08
- “Beheaded corpse found in Mosul,” 4/12/08
- “Blast in Mosul leaves no casualties,” 1/6/08
- “Blast in Mosul leaves vehicle ablaze,” 1/7/08
- “Car bomb attack leaves 10 casualties south of Mosul,” 1/21/08
- “Car bomb explosion leaves 12 casualties in Ninewa,” 4/9/08
- “Car bomb in Ninewa leaves no casualties,” 7/9/08
- “Car bomb injures 6 Iraqi soldiers in Mosul,” 7/9/08
- “Car bomb injures 6 persons in western Mosul,” 3/17/08
- “Car bomb kills woman, wounds 4 cops in Mosul,” 4/2/08
- “Charred body found in Mosul,” 6/6/08
- “Civil status dept. head gunned down in Ninewa,” 7/10/08
- “Civilian gunned down in Mosul,” 2/18/08
- “Civilian injured by car bomb in Mosul,” 3/3/08
- “Civilian killed, 2 cops injured, body found in Mosul,” 4/21/08
- “Civilian killed, 3 unknown bodies found in Mosul,” 1/8/08
- “Civilian killed, 5 wanted persons captured in Mosul,” 7/13/08
- “Civilian killed, hostage freed in Mosul,” 2/19/08
- “Civilian killed in armed attack in Mosul,” 7/10/08
- “Civilian killed in explosion in Mosul,” 2/12/08
- “Civilian killed, two corpses found in Mosul,” 3/31/08
- “Cop, civilian gunned down in 2 attacks in Mosul,” 1/17/08
- “Female government official gunned down in Mosul,” 7/28/08
- “Five civilians wounded by car bomb blast in Mosul,” 3/24/08
- “Former minister brother kidnapped in Ninewa,” 3/30/08
- “Gunmen kidnap 4 university students in Mosul,” 6/24/08
- “Gunmen kill 2 Iraqi soldiers in Mosul,” 7/23/08
- “Gunmen kill cop in Mosul,” 6/17/08
- “Gunmen kill morgue employee in Mosul,” 3/25/08
- “Gunmen kill municipality director in northern Mosul,” 6/25/08
- “Gunmen kill woman at her house in Mosul,” 3/28/08
- “Gunmen kill woman inside her home in Mosul,” 7/25/08
- “Gunmen kill, wound 2 fishermen near Mosul,” 4/24/08
- “Gunmen killed, two bodies found in Mosul,” 1/30/08
- “Gunmen set eight communication towers ablaze in Mosul,” 2/7/08
- “Gunmen shoot down Sunni mosque imam in Mosul,” 7/27/08
- “IAF presents plan to recruit 7 thousand Mosul residents into security forces – MP,” 5/18/08
- “IED injures policeman in Mosul,” 6/9/08
- “IED leaves 4 casualties in Mosul,” 4/24/08
- “IED leaves 4 casualties in Mosul, 2/25/08
- “IED wounds 3 policeman in Ninewa,” 3/4/08
- “Iraq army detonates car bomb west of Mosul,” 3/24/08
- “Iraqi army forces kill gunman in Mosul,” 1/22/08
- “Iraqi soldier killed, 3 wanted men captured in Mosul,” 4/28/08
- “Kidnapped civilian found dead in Mosul,” 1/15/08
- “Life returns to normal in Mosul after 10-day curfew,” 5/20/08
- “Maliki allocates $100 million for Mosul projects,” 5/18/08
- “Man, daughter killed by U.S. army in Ninewa,” 4/16/08
- “More than 142 gunmen arrested during Mosul’s operations,” 5/13/08
- “Mortar shell wounds 6 in Mosul,” 2/17/08
- “Mosul attack leaves 7 police casualty,” 1/3/08
- “Mosul blast casualties up to 43,” 3/18/08
- “Mosul car bomb attack leaves no casualties,” 7/15/08
- “Mosul car bomb wounds 5 civilians,” 1/16/08
- “One civilian wounded in Mosul,” 3/10/08
- “Police find 2 bodies in Ninewa,” 3/3/08
- “Police find prosecutor, lawyer bodies in Ninewa,” 2/29/08
- “Police forces discover three female bodies in Mosul,” 7/31/08
- “Police kill al-Qaeda gunman in Ninewa,” 2/5/08
- “Policeman killed in clashes with gunmen in Mosul,” 7/26/08
- “Roadside bomb kills man, son in Mosul,” 2/29/08
- “Second bombing wounds three persons in Mosul,” 6/26/08
- “Senior police officer killed in Mosul clashes,” 3/30/08
- “Senior police officer survives attempted assassination in Mosul,” 2/21/08
- “Southern Mosul blast wounds cop, civilian,” 1/22/08
- “Suicide attack wounds five policemen in Mosul,” 6/20/08
- “Suicide bomber killed in Mosul,” 3/4/08
- “Suicide bomber wounds 6 civilians in Mosul,” 7/16/08
- “Suicide truck bomb kills 2, injures 70 in Mosul,” 6/25/08
- “Three civilians wounded in western Mosul blast,” 7/20/08
- “Toll from Mosul bombing rises to 18,” 4/14/08
- “Turkish tanker driver killed by bomb blast in Mosul,” 7/10/08
- “Twin car bombing leaves 13 casualties,” 3/14/08
- “Two coordinated car bombs wound 9 individuals in Mosul,” 7/31/08
- “Two Iraqi soldiers wounded in 2 attacks in Mosul,” 7/9/08
- “Two roadside bombings leaves 2 wounded in Mosul,” 6/12/08
- “Two tank drivers wounded in Mosul armed attack,” 6/12/08
- “U.S. army discovers 4 bodies in Ninewa,” 6/10/08
- “U.S. chopper kills, injures 3 cops – source,” 1/21/08
- “U.S. forces kill 3 family members in Mosul,” 6/24/08
- “Unidentified gunmen kill two cops in eastern Mosul,” 2/28/08
- “Unknown body found in Mosul,” 3/24/08
- “Unknown gunmen kill a 12-year boy in Mosul-spokesman,” 2/1/08
- “Woman wounded in eastern Mosul blast,” 6/14/08

Weaver, Matthew, “Police chief killed by suicide bomber in Iraq,” Guardian, 1/24/08

Xinhua, “Car bomb hits police patrol in northern Iraq,” 1/14/08
- “Gunmen blow up 4 houses in N Iraq, child killed,” 6/16/08
- “Iraq soldiers foil suicide bomb attack in Mosul,” 4/29/08
- “Suicide car bomb injuring 14 in N Iraq,” 6/23/08
- “Three policemen killed in insurgents’ attack in Iraq,” 1/4/08
- “Twin bomb attack kills 8 in northern Iraq,” 6/28/08

Baghdad Issues Ultimatum To Squatters

Baghdad is moving ahead with the most controversial part of its refugee program, forcing out squatters. On Wednesday, August 6, the central government announced that squatters have one month, from August 1 to August 30, to vacate any houses or government buildings they illegally occupy under Decree Number 83. The authorities also threatened legal action against those that did not leave by saying that they consider squatters parties to the forced removal of any families’ homes they occupy, and that they can be punished for it. As compensation, the government has offered $250 per month for six months for squatters who leave. Maliki’s office has also said that any families that return to their homes can collect $840, petition for damages, and receive help with airplane tickets. It is believed that there are up to 3,000 homes that squatters refuse to vacate from.

This is not the first time the government has tried to move against squatters. Earlier this year officials made similar announcements, which led to such strong protests that parliament suspended any evictions in June 2008. As a sign of Iraq’s dysfunctional government, squatters were still told to leave across the country despite parliament’s action. On July 16 for example, squatters in Baghdad’s Al Jamia and Al Adel districts were told they had three days to vacate their premises.

The move by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki to remove squatters and return displaced families poses large questions. Iraqis, the Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, the International Crisis Group, and the head of Parliament’s Migration and Displacement committee have all complained that Baghdad lacks adequate planning, funding and expertise to handle such a large task. In order to get the money the government has promised, citizens must go through a slow and arduous bureaucracy and even then they may not get their compensation. The money offered also may not be adequate. Another problem, is that the government has no real plans to integrate families that want to return to their neighborhoods, many of which have been ethnically cleansed and are now controlled by a single armed sect, such as Dora in Baghdad discussed earlier. So far, the International Organization for Migration found that only 3 in 100 Iraqis have returned to their original homes. There is no guarantee that squatters will be able to find a new home as well, so they could become displaced all over again if they are forced out. Still, the government hopes that 60,000-100,000 families will return by the end of 2008. This could prove to be little more than wishful thinking.

SOURCES

Adas, Basil, “More than 11,000 displaced families return to Baghdad,” Gulf News, 8/4/08

Alsumaria, “Iraq gives 3 day deadline to evacuate displaced houses,” 7/16/08

Associated Press, “Iraq encourages displaced people to return home,” 8/6/08

Fadel, Leila, “Squatters in Iraqi buildings fear they’ll soon be on the street,” McClatchy Newspapers, 8/4/08

International Crisis Group, “Failed Responsibility: Iraqi Refugees In Syria, Jordan and Lebanon,” 7/10/08

IRIN, “Iraq announces incentives to encourage return of IDPs, refugees,” 7/23/08

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 7/30/08

Voices of Iraq, “Iraqi premier gives one month ultimatum for displaced houses’ occupiers,” 8/6/08
- “Lack of services, financial support make life difficult for returnees,” 7/31/08

The Arab Opening To Iraq

Since the U.S. invasion, Iraq has been one of the black sheep of the Arab world. The government was not only installed under the aegis of the U.S., but it was Shiite and Kurdish led in a Sunni Arab world. Add to that a series of terrorist attacks against the diplomats of neighboring countries, and one can see why Iraq had few ties to the Gulf region and the rest of the Middle East. That’s why it was no minor event when Arab states began forgiving Iraq’s debt and announcing a new range of diplomatic relationships during the summer of 2008.

New Relations

In the last few months a number of Arab governments have begun opening up towards Iraq. Kuwait was the latest to announce that it was naming an ambassador to Iraq in mid-July 2008. Kuwait originally closed its Iraqi embassy when Saddam invaded in1990. In 2003 it was re-opened, but only with a charge d’affaires. At the beginning of the month, Jordan announced that it would be sending an ambassador to Baghdad as well. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) canceled the $7 billion that Iraq owed it, and said it too was going to send an ambassador soon. These last two announcements came after Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki traveled to those countries. In early June Bahrain also said that it was going to open an embassy and send an ambassador. Saudi Arabia promised one back in September 2007, but hasn’t sent one yet.

One of the major reasons why so many of Iraq’s neighbors have not had full diplomatic relations was that insurgents attacked them. In 2003 the Jordanian embassy was bombed in Baghdad by Al Qaeda in Iraq, one of its first large-scale terrorist acts in the country. The UAE had one of its diplomats kidnapped around the same time. Egypt, Algeria, Bahrain, Sudan, and Morocco have had staff members killed, wounded or kidnapped as well. The lack of security is still a major concern for many countries.

A larger and more important issue is that the Arab, and most of the Muslim world, is run by Sunnis. Iraq is not only run by Shiites, but also has a powerful Kurdish element as well in the ruling coalition. Many of Iraq’s neighbors believe that Maliki’s government is controlled by Iran, another Shiite led regime that they see as one of the main destabilizing forces in the region. In turn, some of Iraq's Shiite politicians are hostile towards the Arab states for not helping them during Saddam’s rule.

Relations are not perfect between Iraq and its neighbors, but the recent changes are significant. Iraq still owes Kuwait $15 billion. The main Gulf state, Saudi Arabia, still has no ambassador, and Iraq owes them $15 billion as well. What is more important is that Arab countries are finally coming to accept Iraq’s government. Before, Baghdad only had two major friends, the U.S. and Iran. Many of Iraq’s leaders have long standing ties with Iran because Tehran took them in and supported them during the Saddam years. The lack of relations with the rest of the Middle East after the U.S. invasion meant Baghdad could only look towards Iran in the region. Perhaps now Iran’s influence can eventually be countered if Iraq becomes more integrated into the Middle East.

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim, “Kuwait names 1st ambassador to Iraq since Gulf War,” Associated Press, 7/17/08
- “UAE cancels Iraq debt, names new ambassador,” Associated Press, 7/6/08

Altman, Alex, Cruz, Gilbert, Goodman, Adam, Pickert, Kate, Sharples, Tiffany, Stephey, M.J., Suddath, Claire, “3. United Arab Emirates,” 7/21/08

Adas, Basil, “Absence of Arab missions raises questions,” Gulf News, 4/29/08

Associated Press, “Bahrain getting ready to open Baghdad embassy,” 6/8/08

Black, Ian, “Jordan appoints ambassador to Iraq after five-year absence,” Guardian, 7/2/08

DeYoung, Karen, “Iraq Finds Its Arab Neighbors Are Reluctant to Offer Embrace,” Washington Post, 5/16/08

Lynch, Marc, “Arabs stepping up in Iraq … because they expect US drawdown?” Abu Aardvark Blog, 7/7/08

Stack, Liam, “Arab states still wary of investing in Iraq,” Christian Science Monitor, 5/29/08

Yacoub, Sameer, “United Arab Emirates to name ambassador to Baghdad,” Associated Press, 6/5/08

Drought Update II

Farmer in Qadisiyah province showing his dried out fields

As reported earlier, Iraq is facing one of the worst droughts in recent history. This is especially devastating for Iraq because farming is the second largest business after oil. and its major employer. The drought is also affecting the country’s electrical supply as hydroelectric power from dams has dropped with the decrease in water. The drought has hit areas across Iraq from the three northern provinces of Kurdistan, and Tamim, to the east in Diyala, and into central Iraq’s Qadisiyah province as well. The lack of water has hit so hard that many farmers are abandoning their fields and migrating to other places in search of work. In the village of Fatamia in Diyala U.S. and Iraqi forces came across only three to four families in a village that once held thirty to forty. A resident said they had all fled the drought. Iraq’s Water Minister said a similar pattern is happening in northern sections of the country. The U.S. commander of northern Iraq said that the American military, United States Agency for International Development, the State Department, and experts from American colleges are all trying to come up with plans to modernize Iraq’s water system and use to alleviate the drought. The Water Ministry is also working to get farmers to ration their water use and limit planting, and working with neighboring countries such as Turkey, Syria, and Iran that control rivers and dams that control the water flow into Iraq. Those nations as well, are facing a drought.

16. Irbil, 17. Tamim, 3. Diyala, 9. Qadisiyah, 14. Ninewa have been some of the provinces hit hardest by the drought

SOURCES

Haynes, Deborah, “Iraqi’s hunt for insurgents in Diyala unearths only ghost towns and drought,” Times of London, 7/29/08

Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction, “Quarterly and Semiannual Report to the United States Congress,” 7/30/08

Zavis, Alexandra, “First violence, now drought threatens Iraq farmers,” Los Angeles Times, 6/26/08

Motivations Behind Female Suicide Bombers

On Saturday, the New York Times had an op. ed. piece by Lindsey O’Rourke, a PhD candidate at the University of Chicago who is studying female suicide bombers. (1) She looked at every female bomber from around the world since 1981. Her piece disputed some of the common ideas people have for why these attacks are carried out, and believes that they will only increase in the foreseeable future.

First, O’Rourke went through some of the conventional wisdom people have for why women carry out these bombings. She said that Islam, mental illness, rape, and force are not the motivations. Islamists were very reluctant to use women in attacks because of their interpretation of their religion. Most of them adopted the tactic after secular groups used them first. In fact, 85% of the female bombers since 1981 have come from secular, not religious groups. Second, there were many reports that Iraqi women have been raped and sexually disgraced to force them into these attacks. There was also a lot of press that two women that carried out market bombings in Baghdad in January 2008 were mentally ill. All of these stories proved to be false.

From O’Rourke’s analysis, women suicide bombers carry out their attacks for the same reasons men do. The three major similarities between all such attacks are a foreign military occupation, nationalism, and complaints about the local security forces and government. On a tactical level, women are used because it is easier for them to get through security because men do not see them as threats. Female attacks also generate much more publicity, which is always a goal of terrorist and insurgent groups.

In Iraq, O’Rourke believes that female bombers cannot be deterred and will only increase. The U.S. is trying to form a Daughters of Iraq program that recruits women to work security. The program is very small with only 30 women graduating from the first training course. They are also expected to only work part time. This is hardly a plan that will work in a country the size of Iraq. She also feels that as long as Iraq remains poor, there will always be disputes that will lead to violence. Finally, the Islamists have proven to be extremely adaptable, so even if women bombers can be stopped somehow, the insurgents will just change tactics to something else. Together, O’Rourke believes that there will only be an increase in such attacks until the Islamists come up with something else to use.

O’Rourke’s views fit in with what has been reported here, and by others. A common feature amongst Iraqi women bombers is that they had a family member killed or arrested by the U.S. or government forces. Their act was then part of revenge or maintaining family honor. All of the female attacks in 2008 have been against other Iraqis as well, which shows how the conflict has changed since the Surge. The insurgency has been greatly diminished by the work of the Sons of Iraq (SOI) and by the Iraqi forces. These are now the main targets of groups like Al Qaeda in Iraq that is believed to be behind the vast majority of female bombers, perhaps out of a sense of betrayal because many SOI fighters are former insurgents themselves. 27 known female attacks have been carried out this year compared to only 8 in 2007, so O’Rourke’s assertion that this trend will only increase in the near term is being proven right now. As insurgent attacks continue to decline throughout Iraq, it’s only logical that they turn to the one means that has proven effective. At the same time it is a sign of their decline because they can no longer carry out their traditional tactics with any frequency.

SOURCES

O’Rourke, Lindsey, “Behind the Woman Behind the Bomb,” New York Times, 8/2/08

No Compromises on Election Law

Both the New York Times and Voices of Iraq are reporting that Iraq’s parliament adjourned for its summer break without voting on the provincial election law. The legislature will not come back until September 9. The Speaker of Parliament Mahmoud Mashhadani said that a special committee would be formed to try to work out a deal over the bill during the break with the assistance of the United Nations. Mashhadani also said that if any breakthroughs were made parliament could have a special session.

SOURCES

Robertson, Campbell, “Iraqis Fail to Agree on Provincial Election Law,” New York Times, 8/7/08

Voices of Iraq, “Parliament forms election bill committee, to resume sessions on September 9,” 8/6/08