Tuesday, October 9, 2012

Meeting Between Change List And Patriotic Union Of Kurdistan Spurred By Increasing Power Of Kurdish President Barzani


The Change list is the largest opposition party in the Kurdistan Regional parliament. Nishurwan Mustafa, one of the co-founders of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), created Change in 2009 after becoming disillusioned with the path the PUK was following. In the last year, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and PUK have both courted Mustafa as the balance between the two ruling parties has shifted in favor of the former. In September 2012, President Jalal Talabani and Mustafa met in an attempt to forge a new relationship after the two had become bitter rivals. What brought them together was their growing apprehension about the power that Kurdish President Massoud Barzani of the KDP has been able to amass.
Change List head Mustafa (left) and PUK chief Pres. Talabani (right) during their meeting in Sep. 2012 (NINA)

On September 24, 2012, President Jalal Talabani, the head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and Nishurwan Mustafa the chief of the Change List held a summit. Afterward the two proclaimed a new relationship between their parties. They agreed to form a joint committee that would work out how they could cooperate in the future. This was the first time the two had met in six years. In the past, they were allies as they co-founded the PUK in 1975. Mustafa became Talabani’s deputy, but they eventually drifted apart, and in 2009, the Change List was formed as a result. The new friendly relations between the two were not widely appreciated. The spokesman for Change for example, resigned afterward. The Kurdistan Tribune reported that one faction of the list wanted a formal alliance with the PUK, while another wanted to remain independent. This was quite a change in Kurdish politics. The Change List had directly competed with the PUK in the 2009 regional parliamentary elections, with the Change List coming out on top in Talabani’s home province of Sulaymaniya. The two relentless attacked each other afterward. Now they were trying to reconcile.

Beforehand, both the KDP and PUK were courting Change. New Kurdish Premier Nechirvan Barzani of the KDP re-instated government officials who were sacked by the PUK for supporting Change after he took office in February. He and President Barzani also had conferences with Change List officials. Then on June 1, at the PUK’s 37th anniversary President Talabani gave a speech, which mentioned the Change List and Mustafa 29 times. Later that month, Talabani’s deputy, Barham Salah met with the Change List leader. At the time, Change claimed the visit was a personal one, not political. This was all due to the changing power relations between the two ruling parties. Until recently, the two parties were relatively equal. Now however, the KDP is in the ascendency, in part due to the PUK’s poor showing in the 2009 regional elections, and the emergency of the Change List. Many believe that the PUK will do even worse in the future, and was fragmenting as a result. It’s for this reason that the KDP and PUK were trying to win over Mustafa. Whoever did so could help their cause in future balloting.

The reason why Talabani seemed to win this contest was the PUK and Change’s growing apprehensions about President Barzani. This became public when Barzani was leading the charge for a no confidence vote against Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. During that process the PUK remained on the sideline, while the Change List refused to sign the no confidence letter. Then in July, Barzani created a new Security Council, and put his son Masrour Barzani at its head. The Change List claimed this was a step towards authoritarianism, and a sign that the Barzani clan was attempting to take control of the region. The PUK has been just as critical, complaining about President Barzani following a unilateral Syrian policy, and the Natural Resource Ministry promoting the KDP. This has led Patriotic Union members to increasingly call for revising the power sharing agreement with the KDP. As a sign of their growing confluence of opinion, both the PUK and Change List have recently called for amending the Kurdish draft constitution, and a parliamentary system of government to replace the current presidential one. Before, Change was opposed to both the ruling parties in Kurdistan. It accused the PUK and KDP of corruption, and the domination of the regional government for their own gain. Now that power has shifted in favor of the KDP, Mustafa and Talabani are afraid that Barzani will come to run the entire region on his own. As a result, they have opened to a new alliance between them.

Whether Change and the PUK can make this work is not known yet. The two have a lot of bad blood, and some are obviously unhappy with improving relations. On the other hand, their fear of President Barzani may be enough to bring them together. Whatever the case, it does show that politics in the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) are not just about the ruling parties anymore. With its showing in the 2009 elections, Change has set itself apart from the rest of the opposition parties in the KRG parliament. What comes next is the big question. Will Mustafa and Talabani be able to work out their differences, and provide an opposition to Barzani or will the PUK simply co-opt Change?

SOURCES

Abdulla, Mufid, “COMMENTARY: KDP and PUK – end of the love affair?” Kurdistan Tribune, 5/8/12

Agence France Presse, “Opponents decry nepotism in Iraq Kurd council,” 7/10/12

Ahmad, Zanko, “hidden motives? campaign to oust Iraqi pm sees old enemies reunite,” Niqash, 6/7/12
- “jobs for the kids: is Iraqi Kurdistan a democracy or a monarchy?” Niqash, 8/16/12

Ahmed, Hevidar, “Gorran Threatens to Withdraw from Political Process,” Rudaw, 7/30/12
- “KDP and PUK Reviewing Strategic Agreement,” Rudaw, 8/18/12
- “Kurdistan Opposition Groups Drifting Apart,” Rudaw, 7/12/12
- “Party Insiders Warn of Divisions Inside PUK,” Rudaw, 9/10/12
- “PUK & KDP Feel Sidelined by Each Other in Their Provinces,” Rudaw, 9/4/12
- “PUK and Gorran Meet for First Time in Six Years,” Rudaw, 9/26/12
- “PUK on Board with Opposition Push for Parliamentary System,” Rudaw, 10/3/12
- “PUK Wants Strategic Agreement to Correct balance of Power,” Rudaw, 9/28/12
- “Senior KDP Official: Strategic Agreement with PUK Stands Firm, But Needs Modern Reassessment,” Rudaw, 9/23/12
- “Senior PUK Official: Strategic Agreement is Needed Now More than Ever,” Rudaw, 9/30/12

Aswat al-Iraq, “Call for civilian constitution and transparency in oil revenues, Change Movement,” 10/2/12

Azzaman, “Iraqi Political Divisions Spread to Kurdish Leaders,” 9/27/12

Dagher, Sam, “Strong Showing Seen for Kurdish Challengers,” New York Times, 7/27/09

Haji, Aso, “Launch of Kurdistan Security Council paves way for development of police authority in region, says Gorran,” AK News, 7/10/12

Karem, Harem, “Kurdistan Region provincial elections delayed – why?” Kurdistan Tribune, 6/6/12

Kurdistan Tribune, “Gorran spokesman Shaho Saeed resigns,” 10/4/12

Mahmoud, Nawzad, “Contradictory Views on PUK-Gorran Relations,” Rudaw, 6/14/12
- “Opposition Looks for Alternative Means of Influence,” Rudaw, 8/2/12

Mohammed, Fryad, “Islamic parties concerned about tensions between Gorran and ruling party,” AK News, 8/2/12

National Iraqi News Agency, “Talabani and Nawshirwan Mustafa agree to normalize relations between their parties,” 9/24/12

Monday, October 8, 2012

Fallout In Iraq Over Tikrit Prison Escape


At the end of September 2012, Iraq witnessed the largest prison break in recent history. Over 100 inmates allegedly got out of the Tasfirat prison in Tikrit, Salahaddin province. Iraq has seen a number of escapes before, but nothing of this magnitude. Al Qaeda in Iraq later took responsibility, while Iraq’s political class argued over who was responsible.
Tasfirat Prison in Salahaddin after the detainee escape (Iraqi News)
Al Qaeda in Iraq said it was behind the Tasfirat prison escape. Its front organization, the Islamic State of Iraq posted a comment on an Islamist website in October that it was responsible. That was predictable given the nature of the operation. The jailbreak started with a car bomb going off outside of the facility, with three more found close by. This pointed to coordination with outside insurgents. Prisoners were said to have gotten weapons smuggled into the prison during family visits as well. It was no surprise then that Al Qaeda would be behind such a bold attack. Of the 100 or so detainees that got out, 70 are still supposedly at large, although a few are being picked up here and there. Al Qaeda in Iraq is in the midst of its Breaking Walls campaign that it announced during the summer. This is being marked by an increase in security incidents, and headline grabbing operations like the one seen in Tikrit.

Such a daring and successful attack has led to recriminations amongst Iraqi officials and politicians. For one, Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani’s representative in Karbala, Abdul Mahdi al-Karbali condemned the escape, stating that it happened all too often in Iraq. An Iraqi security analyst told Al-Mada paper that he thought the local security forces colluded with the insurgents, since they did nothing when the car bomb went off outside of the prison. A lawmaker from the Iraqi National Movement (INM) stated that the guards at Tasfirat were corrupt, and likely bought off by militants. Deputy Interior Minister Adnan Asadi confirmed that the Tasfirat staff were involved, and said that all the officials at the facility had been arrested for interrogation. Two parliamentarians from the National Movement were also accused of helping prisoners get out. Allegedly after the legislature failed to pass the Amnesty Law, some of the detainees at Tasfirat lost their chance to be legitimately released, so they decided to escape instead. Finally, the Iraqi cabinet announced that they would segregate the general prison population from terrorists, and have the latter guarded by the Federal Police. All of these comments showed how dysfunctional Iraq’s prison system is. Its guards and staff cannot be trusted. Politicians have regularly been accused of colluding with militants, and helping them escape. As a result, breakouts have become a common occurrence in the country.

In a way, Iraq’s prison system is symbolic of the state of the country. They are corrupt, inefficient, and dangerous. In the last three years there have been five major prison breaks, but nothing like what happened at Tasfirat. Getting around 100 inmates out was a huge coup for Al Qaeda in Iraq. That was a big embarrassment for the authorities. Unfortunately, the accusations that followed are likely the only thing that’s likely to happen as a result. Iraq’s government is full of problems, few of which it has the capability to fix at this time. Its prisons are just a striking example of that.

SOURCES

AIN, “Alwani: Prisoners’ escape from prisons reflects big defect in security system,” 10/1/12
- “CoM decides to isolate detainees of terrorism charges in special prisons,” 10/2/12

Shafaq News, “Interior Ministry: 70 fugitives from Tikrit prison free,” 10/6/12
- “Joint forces of the army and police arrest two fugitives from Tikrit prison,” 10/6/12

Al-Tamimi, Iyad, “Sources for the “long”: two deputies were involved smuggling Iraqi prisoners Tikrit,” Al-Mada, 10/6/12

Yacoub, Sameer, “Al-Qaida claims attack wave and jailbreak in Iraq,” Associated Press, 10/5/12

INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY VIDEO: Iraq Energy Outlook Special Report


ASSOCIATED PRESS VIDEO: Fast Food Becoming Big News In Iraq


Thursday, October 4, 2012

Iraq Oil Exports See Slight Increase In September 2012, While Profits Stay The Same


Iraq’s oil industry continues to see incremental, yet sometimes inconsistent growth. September saw a small increase in exports, which still marked the highest level since 2003. That was in part due to Kurdistan re-starting its foreign sales. At the same time, revenues for last month were nearly the same as August. The problem as ever is the lack of adequate infrastructure. That remains the largest impediment to Iraq achieving its energy goals.

September 2012 saw another post-invasion high in Iraq’s oil business. For the month, the country exported an average of 2.600 million barrels a day. That was slightly up from the 2.564 million barrels seen in August. Exports have been going up for the last three months starting in July. Before that they were heading up and down. Still, September’s mark was the largest amount of petroleum sent abroad since the 2003 invasion. Iraq is now the second largest exporter amongst OPEC countries as a result, having surpassed Iran. The Oil Ministry stated that it hopes to reach 2.9 million barrels a day in exports by 2013. That seems a reasonable goal. The issue is how much the nation’s pipelines and port can handle.

Iraq Oil Exports And Profits 2011-2012
Month
Avg.
Exports
(Mil/
Bar/
Day)
Avg. Price Per Barrel
Revenue (Bil)
Jan. 11
2.16
$90.78
$6.082
Feb.
2.20
$98.44
$6.064
Mar.
2.15
$107.13
$7.167
Apr.
2.14
$114.26
$7.342
May
2.22
$108
$7.45
Jun.
2.27
$105.17
$7.173
Jul.
2.16
$108.79
$7.311
Aug.
2.18
$104.91
$7.124
Sep.
2.10
$104.89
$6.619
Oct.
2.08
$104.04
$6.742
Nov.
2.13
$106.59
$6.833
Dec.
2.14
$106.18
$7.061
2011 Avg.
2.16
$105.00
$6.913
Jan. 12
2.10
$109.08
$7.123
Feb.
2.01
$112.92
$6.595
Mar.
2.31
$117.99
$8.472
Apr.
2.50
$116.79
$8.795
May
2.45
$103.03
$7.831
Jun.
2.40
$90.09
$6.487
Jul.
2.51
$97.14
$7.577
Aug.
2.56
$106.22
$8.442
Sep.
2.60
$107
$8.4

Oil Exports Through Basra 2012
January 1.711 mil/bar/day
February 1.639 mil/bar/day
March 1.917 mil/bar/day
April 2.115 mil/bar/day
May 2.086 mil/bar/day
June 2.085 mil/bar/day
July 2.216 mil/bar/day
August 2.252 mil/bar/day
September 2.180 mil/bar/day

Oil Exports Through Kirkuk 2012
January 395,000 bar/day
February 375,000 bar/day
March 400,000 bar/day
April 393,000 bar/day
May 366,000 bar/day
June 318,000 bar/day
July 294,000 bar/day
August 313,000 bar/day
September 410,00 bar/day

Iraq’s two major pipelines saw opposing trends last month. Basra, the mainstay of the industry, exported an average of 2.180 million barrels a day in September. That was down from August’s 2.252 million barrels, and July’s 2.216 million. The northern line from Kirkuk to Turkey on the other hand saw 410,000 barrels a day of exports in September. That was the highest amount since March when it handled 400,000 barrels a day. The increase was due to Kurdistan restarting its oil exports in August. It pumped around 120,000-140,000 barrels a day last month. The reason for the decline in southern output was not detailed. It could be due to any number of issues from technical problems to bad weather, which usually beset Basra.

Despite the slight increase in exports from the south, the oil fields there have been showing steady expansion. By the middle of September, they were producing around 2.5 million barrels. The only setback has been the Majnoon field, which shut down in June for maintenance, and won’t restart until the beginning of next year. Iraq could be exporting even more if not for the lack of infrastructure. The southern fields are actually producing far more than the country can handle presently. The government is slowly dealing with this problem. Last month for instance, the Oil Ministry and Italy’s Eni signed a $358.8 million deal with SICIM to install new pipelines at the Zubayr field. After years of war and sanctions, Iraq needs everything for its oil industry to see further progress from new lines, to pumping stations, to storage facilities, to refineries. Unfortunately, planning is sometimes based upon short-term goals, and there is always the red tape and bureaucracy, which slows everything down.

On the other hand, Iraq is still benefiting from high petroleum prices due to instability in the world market. In September, the average price of Iraqi crude sold for $107 a barrel. That was up from $106.22 seen in August. For two months this year, prices dipped below $100 for the first time since February 2011, but now they have gone back up, because of the fighting in Syria, and sanctions on Iran. As a result, Iraq earned $8.4 billion in September, which was basically the same as August. As long as there is conflict going on in the Middle East, and so far there has not been a shortage of that, Iraq will be reaping the profits. This is important for the country as a whole, as oil provides over 90% of the government’s revenues, and fuels the budget and gross domestic product.

Iraq’s oil output is always a little unpredictable. There can be months of growth, only to see a decline. For three months now exports, prices, and profits have been going up. Before that, there was a two-month decline. That’s simply the nature of Iraq’s petroleum business. Until it builds all of the infrastructure that it needs there will always be these ups and downs as one little setback can affect the entire network, and cause a drop. Still, the long-term looks bright. It’s just a matter of how long will it take to put together all of the necessary parts for Iraq to reach its full potential.

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq September oil exports slightly higher,” 10/1/12

Ajrash, Kadhim, “Iraq Crude Output Rises to Highest Since 1979, Oil Ministry Says,” Bloomberg, 9/25/12

Hafidh, Hassan, “Italy’s SICIM Secures $358.8 Million Iraq Zubair Oil Field Deal – Spokesman,” Dow Jones, 9/18/12

Mohammed, Aref, “UPDATE 1-Iraq’s southern oil output at 2.5 mln bpd – SOC oil chief,” Reuters, 9/11/12

Rasheed, Ahmed, “UPDATE 2-Kurdistan warns Baghdad it will halt oil exports again,” Reuters, 8/28/12

Razzouk, Nayla, “Iraq’s Kurds Say Crude Exports Rise to 140,000 Barrels a Day,” Bloomberg, 9/20/12

Republic Of Iraq Ministry of Oil, “Crude Oil Exports”

Sabri, Abdullah, “Kurdistan may increase its oil exports to more than 250,000 bpd,” AK News, 9/19/12

Shafaq News, “Oil Ministry: rate of exports for September rose,” 10/2/12

Yackley, Ayla Jean, “Shell sees Majnoon resuming oil output in Q1,” Reuters, 9/18/12

UNHCR VIDEO: Iraq: Angelina Jolie Visits Baghdad


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