Mosul Campaign Day 177, Apr 11, 2017

The grey area in the east along the Tigris River is the Old City, where the police have been holding down the Islamic State. The bulges in the middle of the front are where the Golden Division has been making its advances in recent weeks. Green = Liberated, White = IS Control, Blue = Tigris River. (Nineveh Media Center)

Both the police and Counter Terrorism Forces (CTF) – Golden Division were at work in west Mosul. On April 10 the Golden Division was fighting in Tanak, Abar, Aruba, and Matahen. That last neighborhood was declared freed the day before. On April 11, the unit was said to be clearing Matahen, Yarmouk and Maghreb. Maghreb was liberated on April 5, and Yarmouk on April 10. These are all areas in the center and western sections of the city, where the CTF have been making steady advances. The Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division on the other hand, have claimed they were pushing towards the Grand Mosque in the Old City section in the east each day, but in reality they were not making any serious movement. This was continuously denied over the last few weeks, but was finally admitted in an announcement that they re-started their attack upon the Old City. The Federal Police assaulted three strongpoints of the Islamic State near the Grand Mosque. IS was said to be retreating from the district, and forcing civilians to go with them as human shields. The operation against the Old City quickly ground to a halt due to the dense layout, narrow streets, and tough Islamic State defenses. That forced a re-think of tactics and strategy. Reports of heavy civilian casualties caused more delays as well.

Mosul Campaign Day 176, Apr 10, 2017

There was little activity in west Mosul again as the Iraqi forces (ISF) were preparing a new offensive against the Old City district along the Tigris River. The Yarmouk and Sakak neighborhoods were officially declared freed by the Golden Division. The unit took the first half of Yarmouk on April 3 and then the second half on April 6. Despite the announcement there was heavy fighting in both areas. The Golden Division have moved up into the western and central sections of the city, while the Federal Police and Rapid Reaction Division have held down Islamic State units in the Old City. That area is to be surrounded and then attacked. This operation is behind schedule however due to heavy civilian casualties.

Mosul Campaign Day 174-175, Apr 8-9, 2017

Palm Sunday services held for first time in three years in church in Qaraqosh, Ninewa, which was burned by Islamic State (Reuters)

The Iraqi forces (ISF) are only carrying out minimal operations in west Mosul in preparation for an impending big push to seize the Old City district. On April 8 the Federal Police claimed it achieved a breakthrough in the Zinjali neighborhood in the Old City. The police said this cut off some Islamic State supply routes to the area. The next day Federal Police commander General Shakir Jawadat stated that 60% of the defenses around the Grand Mosque in the Old City were destroyed. Iraqi propaganda is anything but consistent since Golden Division General Abdul Wahab al-Saadi was quoted in the press a week before that all the defenses were breached. Whatever the percentage is the Iraqi police have been inching towards the mosque for weeks now. Finally the Golden Division seized the Matahen neighborhood in central west Mosul. That unit has been moving up the western and central section of the city to try to encircle the Old City, which is now surrounded on two sides by the ISF with a third running along the Tigris River. The final push into this area should be coming soon. According to Al Mada the operation was supposed to have already started, but was delayed due to heavy civilian casualties.

Musings On Iraq In The News

I was mentioned by Ben Watson and Kevin Baron in “Trump leans on China, North Korea; Dunford takes Kushner to Iraq; Egypt at the WH; #SAS2017 livestream; Q&A on Space War; And a bit more” for Defense One. I was cited in "A house divided, Political relations and coalition-building between Iraq's Shi'a" by Erwin van Veen, Nick Grinstead, Floor El Kamouni-Janssen for the Netherlands Institute of International Relations, and in "Trump's strike on Syria: A convenient distraction" by Ibrahim al-Marashi for Al Jazeera. My interview with Charlie Winter on how the Islamic State is dealing with its defeat in Mosul was reprinted by the International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation and Political Violence.

6,732 Dead and Wounded In Iraq In March 2017

6,732 people died or were wounded in Iraq in March 2017. That compared to 4,290 casualties in February. It was the highest figure since 13,184 dead and injured were reported in December 2016. The cause of the huge increase was the fighting in Mosul. In the middle of February the government re-started its campaign by assaulting the western half of the city. The dense layout, the use of human shields by the Islamic State and its indiscriminate attack upon civilians, and an increase in air strikes, mortars and artillery by the Coalition and Iraqi forces have all contributed to the rising number of fatalities and injured. At the same time, because the government is not reporting casualties and there is only limited access to the front in Mosul the recorded numbers should be considered a minimum.

Mosul Campaign Day 172-173, Apr 6-7, 2017

Most of the Iraqi advances in Mosul have been in the west such as Yarmouk (far left), which was just captured by the Golden Division (Institute for the Study of War)

The Iraqi forces (ISF) have been preparing for a new offensive in west Mosul. That has resulted in a relative pause in operations. On April 6 the Golden Division did take Yarmouk 2 in the western side of the city. Otherwise the ISF were preparing to storm the Old City in the east along the Tigris River. General Najim Abdullah al-Jabouri of the Ninewa Operations Command said that the attack upon the Old City would rely less on airstrikes due to civilian casualties.

Next Phase Against The Islamic State Cutting Its Finances, Interview With RAND’s Patrick Johnston

The Islamic State is on its way to being defeated in the Battle of Mosul. Afterward it is likely to lose its remaining territory in Iraq. It is already transitioning back to an insurgency however. To finally stamp out the group its funding needs to be cut off. That can’t be done on the battlefield however, but through intelligence and law enforcement. Recently the RAND Corporation published a report on the group’s finances entitled “Financial Futures of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.” To talk about the next step against the Islamic State is one of the paper’s authors Patrick Johnston. He can be followed on Twitter @JOHNSTON.