Mosul Campaign Day 64, Dec 19, 2016

The Mosul campaign has slowed down considerably. The Iraqi forces (ISF) were still trying to take the Salam Hospital in the Wahda district of southeast Mosul and attacked a neighboring area. The ISF also killed four suicide bombers. In the west, the Hashd were attacked twice and the Tal Afar airport hit by mortar fire. The decrease in operations is due to exhaustion, the ISF stalling in the north, south and west, and the Iraqi command revising its game plan. Part of the new strategy is to shift forces from the north and south to the east to assist the Golden and 9^th Divisions. Federal Police units for example are being sent to the east to hold territory taken by the Special Forces and army. Southern Mosul is also being shelled in preparation for a new push on the city.

Inside Mosul the situation continues to deteriorate. In the last ten days a reported 12 people died due to a lack of medicine in areas of the city held by the militants. That was a mix of old and newborns. Not only are stocks running low but Islamic State fighters are taking all the supplies at hospitals. 4 people were executed as well for trying to escape IS held territory. In liberated areas of east Mosul there are increasing robberies. Locals are calling for police to come in and secure areas that have been freed as the Golden Division and army moved forward.

Outside the city things are also growing more difficult. There are a series of aid stations and hospitals in eastern Mosul run by the Iraqi government, the military and aid groups that do triage on the hundreds of people being killed and injuring in the fighting. They then have to take an ambulance to Irbil to enter a proper hospital. Those frontline aid stations are being overwhelmed by the number of people they are treating. A parliamentarian criticized Baghdad for not better preparing for this predictable situation. As part of the campaign plan, the government called on the residents of Mosul to stay in their homes because the authorities had no way of taking care of them. Now that they are embroiled in the middle of combat, the government still does not have the resources to deal with them. Aid groups also lacked the ability to deal with the situation. The United Nations for example has never gotten all of the funds that it has requested for its efforts in Iraq since 2014.

Finally, Musings On Iraq has counted 1,968 people killed and 3,383 wounded in Mosul from October 17 to December 14. The vast majority of the dead, 1,046 were reportedly executed by the Islamic State. 922 have been killed in the fighting in the city, consisting of 99 soldiers and 823 civilians have died in the fighting, and 142 soldiers and 3,241 civilians have been injured. The real numbers are much higher.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "Iraqi forces kill 14 IS members east of Mosul," Iraqi News, 12/19/16

- "Islamic State attack kills 4 Shia militans near Mosul," Iraqi News, 12/19/16

Face Iraq, “Government source: At least 4,000 civilians killed and wounded since the start of the battle of Mosul,” 12/19/16

Al Forat, "Destroyed a Daesh car bomb in frustrated attack west of Mosul," 12/19/16

- "Popular crowd kills two snipers west of Tal Afar after infiltrating deep into enemy territory," 12/19/16

Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul, Dec. 19, 2016,” 12/19/16

Al Mada, “Promises to change the military plans to free the left coast are not rigid,” 12/19/16

Al Masalah, "Daesh executed four civilians in Mosul who tried to escape from its control," 12/19/16

Rojkan, Mira, “12 Civilians Died After Lack of Drugs in Mosul,” Bas News, 12/19/16

Ryan, Missy and Salim, Mustafa, “Iraq is unable to treat the huge numbers of people wounded in Mosul,” 12/19/16

Shafaq News, “iraqi forces shelled Daseh sites in preparation for incurstion into Right Bank for first time,” 12/19/16

Mosul Campaign Day 63, Dec 18, 2016

On December 18 the Iraqi forces (ISF) were still trying to capture the Wahda area of east Mosul. Since December 14 elements of the 9^th and Golden Division along with police units have been attempting to recapture the Salam Hospital in the Wahda neighborhood. Overall operations in the city have slowed in preparation for a second phase. Islamic State resistance, dealing with the civilian population caught in the middle of the fighting, and heavy losses have also hindered the pace of the campaign. Part of the new push will be reinforcements to the eastern section of the city known as the Left Bank. A new army brigade for example is being sent to support the 9^th Division.

The United States is also shifting its tactics to help the ISF. U.S. air strikes are trying to hit roads along the lines of advance by the Iraqi forces to try to hamper car bombs. The Americans are also targeting car bomb factories. A drawback to this policy is the fact that the ISF is travelling through the city in columns made up of HUMVEES and tanks so cratering roads may impede them as well.

Human Rights Watch (HRW) released a new report on abuses committed by a Sunni tribal force known as the Hashd al-Jabour. Residents of the village of Shayalat al-Imam surrendered themselves to the Iraqi forces when they entered. A unit from the Hashd al-Jabour then arrived and ordered the residents to assemble. The Hashd divided the men from the women, and then took four of the former away and executed them accusing them of being Islamic State sympathizers. The ISF watched on during these events and did not intervene. This was the second time HRW has documented Sunni tribal forces committing violations during the Mosul campaign. Many of these units were trained by the Americans and were supposed to hold territory cleared by the army, police and special forces. It appears that some of them are poor quality and undisciplined.

Finally, the Mosul campaign was launched two months ago. It has been an extremely costly one for the security forces, Hashd, Peshmerga, and civilians. While the figures are incomplete due to government censorship and lack of access to the frontline the press and the United Nations have tried to document some of the losses. So far there has been 4,006 deaths reported and 4,699 wounded in the fighting from October 17 to December 17. Of those, the Islamic State executed 2,677 with another 238 killed and 117 injured in Coalition and Iraqi air strikes.

Mosul Campaign Security Statistics, Oct 17-Dec 17, 2016

4,006 Killed

1 U.S. Sailor

1 Hashd al-Watani

2 Kurd CT

3 Police

4 ISF

67 Peshmerga

78 Hashd

188 Soldiers

3,662 Civilians

4,699 Wounded

2 Hashd al-Watani

4 Police

59 Hashd

253 Peshmerga

353 ISF

441 Soldiers

3,587 Civilians

119 Shootings

35 IEDs

23 Suicide Bombers

55 Suicide Car Bombs

30 Car Bombs

9 Rockets

61 Mortars

2 Artillery

1 Grenade

15 Motorcycle Bombs Destroyed

99 Suicide Bombers Killed

73 Suicide Car Bombs Destroyed

377 Car Bombs Destroyed

SOURCES

Arango, Tim and Callimachi, Rukmini, “Hungry, Thirsty and Bloodied in Battle to Retake Mosul From ISIS,” New York Times, 12/18/16

Face Iraq, “A military source: a new army brigade is being sent to strengthen the forces in Mosul in preparation for the start of the second phase of the operation,” 12/18/16

Human Rights Watch, “Iraq: Executions by Government-Backed Militia,” 12/18/16

- “Iraq: Militias Held, Beat Villagers,” 11/20/16

Mostafa, Mohamed, "Iraqi army attack IS locations in Mosul neighborhood," Iraqi News, 12/18/16

Musings On Iraq In The News

I was cited in “Bataille de Mossoul: Les Djihadistes De Daech Resistent Avec Acharnement Et Infligent De Lourdes Pertes Aux Troupes Irakiennes” in France Soir and in "Ortadogu'daki Bolgesel Aktorlerin Mosul Politikalari" by Kemal Inat, Mustafa Caner, Recep Tyyip Gurler, Abdullah Erboga, Veysel Kurt for SETA.

Mosul Campaign Day 62, Dec 17, 2016

More units were shifting into east Mosul to assist the Golden Division free that section of the city. The Aafara area in the southeast was freed by elements of the 9^th Division and Ninewa police. Other units from the 9^th now backed by the Golden Division and police were still attempting to re-take the Salam Hospital in the Wahda neighborhood. The 9^th Division originally seized the facility on December 6, while attempting a pincer movement in the eastern section, but they ended up being ambushed by the Islamic State, and had to make a costly retreat. Since December 14 they have been trying to recapture it. There have also been the usual deadly IS counterattacks throughout the Left Bank. On December 16 eight neighborhoods were attacked with eight car bombs being destroyed. On December 17 13 neighborhoods were involved in fighting with 3 car bombs hitting their targets, and another 7 destroyed. Early reports had 61 civilians being killed, and 15 wounded. IS also beheaded 2 individuals. As the southern, northern and western fronts have stalled the government has began moving units from the first two to the east where the Golden Division initially entered the city by itself on orders from Baghdad. Without pressure on the other sides the Islamic State has been able to concentrate all its forces on the east with deadly consequences. That along with the government’s decision to tell the population to stay in their homes because it could not handle an outflow of displaced has meant the fighting has been extremely difficult and slow. Despite that the Iraqi forces are in roughly 40% of the east side of the city with more than half freed.

In the west, the Hashd repulsed an IS attack, while in the south the Iraqi forces were preparing to finally move. West of Tal Afar the insurgents launched an attack led by car bombs and other vehicles. 9 car bombs were destroyed as the attempt was turned back. The Hashd are holding ground and clearing towns in the district waiting for the Iraqi army and federal police to take Tal Afar, but there is no sign when that will happen. In the west, the Federal Police shelled the town of Abu Saif. That is the first goal before they move on the Mosul airport and the city itself. This front has been stalled for over a month, but now there are initial signs that they are going to get back into the fight, hopefully sooner rather than later.

In the Gogjali suburb in east Mosul a police station was re-opened. This was the first in the area as the Baghdad is attempting to re-establish some form of governance in Mosul.

There are continued reports of shortages and displacement within the city. Food is running law, markets have little to nothing, and what there is keeps going up in price. This is putting an added strain on the civilian population who either can’t go elsewhere due to the militants or are stuck in the fighting. Even areas that have been freed are facing a lack of supplies and services. 200 people did escape IS and fled to Gogjali. This is part of the on going internal displacement within the city. Some people have decided to get out overall, but most appear to be moving within the sprawl of Mosul attempting to find safe places to get away from the violence.

Finally, an officer from the Golden Division talked with the press about how the campaign was going. He said that Mosul was unlike Ramadi and Fallujah where many of the IS fighters fled. Another difference was that the Iraqi forces were having to balance fighting to clear areas and dealing with the civilian population. Finally he said the fighting was a war of streets with slow progress.

SOURCES

AIN, "The popular crowd destroyed 11 vehicles including car bombs in frustrated Daesh attack west of Tal Afar," 12/17/16

Al Alam, "Battle VIDEO: Iraqi Forces Repel 4 ISIS Attacks in Mosul, Killing 174 Terrorists," 12/17/16

- "Iraqi Forces Establish Control over Key Hospital in Western Mosul," 12/6/16

Bas News, "27 IS Militants, Including Commanders, Killed in Mosul,"

- "IS Takes Revenge on Civilians in Mosul," 12/17/16

Buratha News, “Recent developments in the field during liberation operations until 10:20 pm Saturday, 17 12 2016,” 12/17/16

Face Iraq, "Medical sources: the martyrdom and wounding of more than 40 civilians by unknown artillery fire targeting central and southern Mosul," 12/17/16

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul, Dec. 17, 2016," 12/17/16

Al Maalomah, "Anti-Terrorism forces repel Dash attack and killed eight of them east Mosul," 12/17/16

Mostafa, Mohamed, "5 soldiers, tens of ISIS dead in eastern Mosul battles," Iraqi News, 12/14/16

Shafaq News, “Dozens of residents fleeing from the grip of Daesh towards the Iraqi forces,” 12/17/16

- “Golden Division announces details on the front and the quality of Daesh gunmen in Mosul,” 12/17/16

- "Statement: Killing of 174 Daesh repelleing attacks," 12/16/16

Xinhua, "Iraqi forces repel 4 IS attacks in Mosul, killing 174 extremists militants," 12/17/16

Mosul Campaign Day 61, Dec 16, 2016

News came out about developments in east Mosul on December 15. The Sukar area was declared freed for the second time. On December 16 four neighborhoods were liberated, two of which Falah 1 and 2 have been gone through several times before. The Islamic State also attacked five areas with car bombs, all of which were reportedly destroyed. In the southeast the 9^th Division was still clearing the same five neighborhoods it has been doing for weeks now.

On the northern, southern, and western fronts the 9^th and 16^th Divisions, Federal Police and Hashd were still caught up in several villages clearing IEDs, and fighting off occasional IS attacks. Two car bombs and a bulldozer bomb were destroyed to the south and two vehicle bombs in the north. The Hashd were busy securing the areas around Tal Abta. The southern forces are finally organizing to attack Mosul, but there are no apparent moves in the north or in the west towards Tal Afar.

Mark Perry for Politico interviewed several U.S. officers at Central Command who were worried about the toll the fighting was taking on the Golden Division, which is leading the fight in east Mosul. One officer said that the unit was facing a 50% casualty rate, and was afraid that it might be rendered combat ineffective at that rate. Another source told Perry that the Iraqi forces (ISF) were turning to more artillery, tanks and air strikes to take care of IS fighters despite the higher civilian toll. Fears of the Golden Division being worn down have been expressed before. The Mosul campaign is the toughest fighting so far though. One Golden Division unit has been taken off the line and replaced with another likely because of its losses and exhaustion. With only around 40% of east Mosul occupied so far there is still a long fight ahead.

The United Nations and International Organization for Migration (IOM) provided more information on the displacement crisis. The U.N. said 96,864 people had been displaced in Ninewa since October 17. Around 57,000 are in U.N. sponsored camps. There are six in operation with three more being built. All together they will have a capacity of 102,000. The organization asked for $196.2 million in donations for the Mosul campaign, but has only received 57% of that. Since 2014 the U.N. has never gotten the amounts it has requested for its humanitarian work in Iraq. The IOM reported that around 106,400 people had been displaced in total, with more than 9,500 having gone home. In recent weeks there has been large jumps in people fleeing with roughly 5,800 leaving their homes in just three days spanning from December 13 to 16. Right now it’s impossible for many to return to their homes east and south of the city since they have not been cleared of IEDs meaning that this crisis will continue for several more months. That combined with the on going fighting will mean the number of displaced will continue to rise, and the return rate will remain low.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "Counter-Terrorism forces free 2 neighborhoods in Mosul," Iraqi News, 12/13/16

AIN, "Urgent counterterrorism liberate Kafat neighborhood on the left coast of Mosul," 12/3/16

Buratha News, “Recent developments in the field during the liberation process until 18:35 pm Friday 16 12 2016,” 12/16/16

International Organization for Migration, “Two Months into Mosul Operations, Over 96,800 Iraqis Displaced,” 12/16/16

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul, Nov. 27, 2016," 11/27/16

NINA, "Security Forces Liberate Sukkar Area North Of Mosul," 12/15/16

Perry, Mark, “How Iraq’s Army Could Defeat ISIS in Mosul-But Lose Control of the Country,” Politico, 12/15/16

Shafaq News, "Statement: Killing of 174 Daesh repelling attacks," 12/16/16

- "Urgent..Iraqi forces stormed two districts east Mosul amid light clashes," 12/15/16

Sotaliraq, "100 Daash killed in frustrated attack inside left coast of Mosul," 12/16/16

UN High Commissioner for Refugees, “Into Mosul’s Third Month, UNHCR Bolsters Response to Help Newly Displaced,” 12/16/16

Mosul Campaign Day 60, Dec 15, 2016

There was not much news on the Mosul campaign on December 15. The Hashd were still attempting to maintain control of the highway between Tal Afar and Tal Abta. The goal is to cut off the Islamic State’s routes from Mosul to Syria. Tal Abta was freed at the start of the second week of December, and the Hashd have been trying to hold the surrounding roads since then.

The number of displaced caused by the campaign took another jump. On December 15 the International Organization for Migration reported 96,864 people had fled their homes since the start of the operation. As the Iraqi forces have moved deeper into Mosul the number of displaced has doubled. On November 20 there were 45,294. That went up to 58,716 on November 10, 58,716 on November 17, 68,964 on November 24, 77,046 on December 1, 82,698 on December 8, before passing the 90,000 mark. Soon there will be more than 100,000. This is not the one million that aid groups were worried might happen, but it is still a steady flow of people out of the mostly the surrounding towns and the eastern half of Mosul. One of the big problems is that there are not enough people to clear all of these villages of IEDs, which means these people might be displaced for a while.

The Director General of the Displacement Ministry noted that some people were already going back. He said approximately 13,000 had returned, but that included people going to Salahaddin, so it was unclear how many were from Ninewa.

SOURCES

Al Alam, "Iraqi Popular Mobilization Units Liberate 10 Villages in tal Afar from ISIS + VIDEO," 12/15/16

International Organization for Migration, “Emergency Tracking Factsheet 7# - Mosul Operations From 17 October To 15 December,” 12/15/16

Al Maalomah, “Popular crowd frees Tal Abta fully west of Mosul,” 12/8/16

Rudaw, “13,000 Mosul IDPs have returned to their homes, Iraqi official,” 12/15/16

Mosul Campaign Day 59, Dec. 14, 2016

There was fierce fighting in eastern Mosul. The 9^th Division tried to recapture the Salam Hospital in the Wahda district in the southeast section of the city. It took the facility on December 6, but it turned out to be an ambush by the Islamic State and it was forced out. Reinforcements were sent to back up the division as well. The 9^th and 16^th Divisions also attacked the Quds and Karama sections, both of which have been declared freed multiple times. The Golden Division and units from the 16^th Division were surrounding the Sukar area. The Golden Division claimed it liberated that neighborhood on December 3, but that now appears to have been an exaggeration. The insurgents also launched suicide car bombs on four neighborhoods, and shelled five with mortars. An IED went off in a home as well. In total, 54 civilians were killed and 9 wounded along with 13 soldiers dying or being injured.

There was more news that the Iraqi forces (ISF) were finally going to attack southern Mosul. Units from the 20^th and 5^th Division joined the 15^th Division. In recent days the Mosul airport has been bombed and the southern neighborhoods of the city shelled. The ISF were supposed to move on the city from that direction more than a month ago, but halted being busy clearing and holding areas.

In the west the Hashd continued to move through the towns of the Tal Afar district. Four more were taken. They will continue with this work until the Iraqi army and police take Tal Afar, which does not appear to be any time soon.

There was another report on the strain the operation is putting on medical facilities in Irbil. Many of the casualties from east Mosul are being sent to that city. The governor of the province said that the hospitals are running out of supplies. He called on Baghdad to deliver some. According to the United Nations hundreds of people have gone through the city’s hospitals already so they must be stressed.

Finally, Kurdish officials continue to go back and forth on whether they will surrender the territory they have taken during the campaign. Baghdad and Irbil signed an agreement that they would give up the land, but contradictory statements are constantly given. Bas News interviewed Peshmerga commander Hamid Afandi who stated that Kurdish blood had been spilled clearing Ninewa province, so they would not retreat. This is one of many political issues that will have to be resolved after Mosul is taken.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "Security forces kill IS suicide bombers who attacked 3 neighborhoods in Mosul," Iraqi News, 12/14/16

AIN, “Urgent counterterrorism liberate Kafat neighborhood on the left coast of Mosul,” 12/3/16

Al Alam, "Iraqi Forces Establish Control over Key Hospital in Western Mosul," 12/6/16

Bas News, “Erbil Running Out of Medical Supplies Due to Mosul Casualties,” 12/14/16

Al Forat, "Popular crowd destroyed four Daesh car bomb west of Tal Afar," 12/14/16

Hawrami, Karzan, “Peshmerga not Committed to Orders of Withdrawal by Baghdad: Commander,” Bas News, 12/14/16

Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul, Dec. 14, 2016,” 12/14/16

- “Inside Mosul, Nov. 1, 2016,” 11/1/16

- “Inside Mosul, Nov. 5, 2016,” 11/5/16

Al Maalomah "The death of 12 civilians from one family bombed by Daesh in central Mosul," 12/14/16

Al Masalah, “Freed three neighborhoods in Mosul and two villages in Tal Afar,” 11/26/16

Mostafa, Mohamed, "5 soldiers, tens of ISIS dead in eastern Mosul battles," Iraqi News, 12/14/16

- "40 civilians killed as ISIS-security battles rage on in Mosul:newspaper," Iraqi News, 12/14/16

Rudaw, "Shiite paramilitaries say strategic town, two villages taken from ISIS west of Mosul," 12/14/16

Shafaq News, "International alliance thwarts Daesh car bomb attack in Mosul," 12/14/16

- "Killed a university professor by a bomb inside his home northeast Mosul," 12/14/16

- "Killing and injuring four civilians in the fall of Daesh mortar shells on east Mosul," 12/14/16

- “Military reinforcements arrived form the south to east Mosul in anticipation of possible attacks,” 12/14/16

Xinhua, “Iraqi forces free more districts in eastern Mosul,” 11/4/16