Monday, July 19, 2010

Attacks and Casualties In Mosul Unchanged By Al Qaeda’s Losses

Mosul is the insurgency’s last urban stronghold in Iraq. Recently Al Qaeda, and its umbrella organization, the Islamic State of Iraq, has lost some of its top leadership in the city. On April 20, 2010 Ahmed al-Obeidi, aka Abu Shuhabi, the head of Al Qaeda’s military operations in Tamim, Ninewa, and Salahaddin was killed by a joint U.S.-Iraqi patrol. A few weeks later on May 6, the Iraqi Army captured Mahmoud Mohammad Salama, Al Qaeda’s leader for Mosul. Then in early June, Abdul Kareem al-Hamadani, the Islamic State of Iraq’s emir of Mosul was also captured.

The decimation of Al Qaeda and the Islamic State in Mosul, has had no lasting impact upon violence there. In February and March 2010 there were 61 and 67 attacks respectively. That dropped to 47 in April, but then climbed back up to 57 in May and 65 in June. Casualties have gone up and down the entire year. In January there were an average of 4.09 a day. That shot up to 6.25 per day in February, the highest of the year, before dropping to 4.90 in March, 4.56 in April, then climbed back up to 7.19 in May, and then declined to 5.33 in June. Overall, the first six months of 2010 is not much different from the last half of 2009, except for deaths. In the last half of 2009 there were an average of 2.19 attacks per day and 5.69 casualties, compared to 1.96 attacks and 5.38 casualties in 2010. Only deaths are noticeably down from 2.10 per day in the end of 2009, compared to 1.42 this year.

The insurgency in Mosul is largely self-sustaining today, and does not appear to be affected by events in the rest of the country. Not even the loss of Al Qaeda’s top leadership for the city seems to have slowed down attacks, but then again the Islamists have always been a minority of Iraq’s Sunni militants. The insurgency is deeply entrenched in Mosul, with its own funding operations, and have infiltrated the local forces. They also prey upon the population’s distrust of the Army and federal police who are largely Shiites from central and southern Iraq, while Mosul is a majority Sunni area. Those are all reasons why violence has hardly changed in the city for the last three years.

Attacks and Casualty Statistics for Mosul

Month Attacks/
Avg. Per
Day 
Deaths/Avg.
Per Day 
Wounded/
Avg. Per
Day 
Casualties
Overall/
Avg. Per Day 
Jul. 
73/2.35
79/2.54
169/5.45
248/8.00
Aug.
77/2.48
102/3.29
171/5.51
273/8.80
Sep.
72/2.40
65/2.16
60/2.00
125/4.16
Oct.
66/2.12
60/1.93
82/2.64
142/4.58
Nov.
55/1.83
37/1.23
71/2.36
108/3.60
Dec.
60/1.93
44/1.41
108/3.48
152/4.90
Jan. 10
59/1.90
38/1.22
89/2.87
127/4.09
Feb.
61/2.17
66/2.35
109/3.89
175/6.25
Mar.
67/2.16
27/0.87
125/4.03
152/4.90
Apr.
47/1.56
43/1.43
94/3.13
137/4.56
May
57/1.90
41/1.36
182/6.06
223/7.19
Jun.
65/2.16
49/1.63
111/3.70
160/5.33
Averages             
July-Dec. 09 
67.1/2.19
64.5/2.10
110.1/3.59
175.6/5.69
Jan.-May 10 
59.3/1.96
44.0/1.42 
118.3/3.92
162.3/5.38

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “1 killed, 27 wounded in blast in Mosul,” 6/14/10
- “2 civilians wounded by hand grenade in Mosul,” 6/23/10
- “2 cops, civilian wounded in eastern Mosul,” 6/3/10
- “2 cops killed by gunmen in Mosul,” 6/13/10
- “2 cops wounded as sticky bomb explodes in Mosul,” 6/16/10
- “2 IEDs target security forces in Mosul,” 6/10/10
- “3 army soldiers wounded in IED blast in Mosul,” 6/4/10
- “3 killed, wounded by sticky bomb in Mosul,” 6/22/10
- “4 policemen wounded in Mosul blast,” 6/20/10
- “5 mortar shells hit court in Mosul,” 6/29/10
- “6 wounded in two separate blasts in Mosul,” 6/19/10
- “7 Syrian gunmen captured in Mosul,” 6/3/10
- “14 wounded in suicide bombing in Mosul,” 6/16/10
- “Civilian shot dead by gunmen in Mosul,” 6/27/10
- “Cop killed, civilian injured by sticky bomb in Mosul,” 6/30/10
- “Dual blast hit army patrol in Mosul,” 6/7/10
- “Former army general wounded in Mosul,” 6/13/10
- “Gunmen kill 3 policemen in Mosul,” 6/24/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 6/7/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 6/7/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 6/21/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in western Mosul,” 6/21/10
- “Gunmen kill, injure 2 brothers in Mosul,” 6/29/10
- “Gunmen kill Iraqi soldier inside his home in Mosul,” 6/26/10
- “Gunmen kill woman in western Mosul,” 6/1/10
- “Gunmen shoot down civilian in Mosul,” 6/27/10
- “Al-Hadbaa Faculty mortared in Mosul,” 6/21/10
- “Hand grenade wounds army officer in northern Mosul,” 6/9/10
- “IED blast kills 2 civilians, wounds 4 in Mosul,” 6/4/10
- “IED kills soldier, injures 3 in Mosul,” 6/15/10
- “IED wounds 3 persons in Mosul,” 6/8/10
- “IED wounds civilian in Mosul,” 6/24/10
- “IED wounds civilian in Mosul,” 6/30/10
- “IED wounds cop in Mosul,” 6/28/10
- “Key ISI member netted, arms cache seized in Mosul,” 6/4/10
- “Kidnapped soldier found dead in Mosul,” 6/2/10
- “Man, his son wounded in blast in Mosul,” 6/7/10
- “Mortar shell wounds soldier in Mosul,” 6/15/10
- “Ninewa official survives assassination,” 6/13/10
- “Officer killed, 5 policemen wounded in Mosul,” 6/26/10
- “Police find bullet-ridden body in Mosul,” 6/16/10
- “Police kill gunman in western Mosul,” 6/16/10
- “Policemen find unknown body in Mosul,” 6/18/10
- “Policeman wounded in IED blast in Mosul,” 6/3/10
- “Policeman wounded in Mosul blast,” 6/17/10
- “Al-Qaeda leader captured in Mosul,” 5/6/10
- “Soldier killed, another wounded in Mosul,” 6/6/10
- “Soldier killed, officer wounded in Mosul blast,” 6/27/10
- “Sticky bomb hits civilian car in Mosul,” 6/14/10
- “Unidentified body found in Mosul,” 6/3/10
- “Unknown gunmen kill cop in eastern Mosul,” 6/8/10
- “Woman killed, 2 wounded in Mosul,” 6/29/10
- “Woman killed inside her house in Mosul,” 6/12/10
- “Woman shot down by gunmen in Mosul,” 6/13/10
- “Woman wounded in blast in Mosul,” 6/8/10
- “Worker’s body found in Mosul,” 6/28/10

DPA, “Nine killed, six injured in string of Iraq violence – Update,” 6/8/10

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Friday 11 June 2010,” McClatchy Newspapers, 6/11/10

Meyer, Sebastian, “Iraq withdrawal: A US unit prepares Mosul police for self-rule,” Christian Science Monitor, 7/9/10

Mosuli, Saad, “Al-Qaeda Turns to Mafia Tactics in Mosul,” Institute for War & Peace Reporting, 6/7/10

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, June 4,” 6/4/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, June 12,” 6/12/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, June 15,” 6/15/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, June 25,” 6/25/10
- “Suicide bombers target Iraq troops, police; kill 5,” 6/24/10

Williams, Timothy, “Wider Recount of Iraq Ballots Is Requested by Vote Leader,” New York Times, 4/20/10

2 comments:

Maury said...

Joel, I think Allawi has gained the stronger hand in negotiations. Maliki was said to have met with Allawi to pressure the INA.

Now, Allawi has met with Moqtada in Syria, after seeming to come to terms with the Kurds last week. Hakim said months ago that any ruling coalition would have to include Iraqiya.

Maliki is starting to look like the odd man out. It's not too late for State of Law to chuck him overboard, and maybe be part of the next coalition. But, it looks like Maliki got rid of anyone who could challenge his hold on the party, and surrounds himself with a bunch of yes men.

Joel Wing said...

Maury there are reports saying the exact opposite. Several Iraqi papers said that Sadr and Maliki have come to an agreement, but that the Supreme Council is still against any deal, and that the Syria meet was to tell Allawi about it and offer his list positions if he wanted in.

I'm still not convinced there's been any breakthrough yet though.

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