Iraqi Deaths Continue To Climb In 2010

While the Associated Press has not published its count for Iraqi deaths for August 2010, the other three organizations that follow casualties show that they continue to climb this year. Iraq Body Count had deaths going up from 418 in July to 501 in August, while icasualties and Iraq's ministries had declines from 534 to 363 and 535 to 426 respectively. When the four groups' numbers are averaged out they show a steady increase. January 2010 saw an average of 6.1 Iraqis killed per day, one of the lowest counts since the war began. That went to 10.1 in February, 8.7 in March, 10.7 in April, 10.3 in May, 9.4 in June, 14.8 in July, and 13.8 in August. 2010 could end up like 2009 when deaths increased in the first part of the year, and then slowly declined beginning in the Autumn.

Click on image for larger view

The increase in average deaths is due to an up-tick in attacks by insurgents in response to the American withdrawal. Security incidents leveled off at the end of 2009, but there has been a spike in the last several weeks as U.S. forces dipped below 50,000. These operations have been punctuated by a number of high profile, mass casualty attacks such as the September 5 assault upon an Iraqi military headquarters in Baghdad, and shootings and bombings in 13 Iraqi cities on August 28, which were meant to garner headlines and show that the militants have outlasted the Americans.

Click on image for larger view
Source: Office of the Director of National Intelligence

 Security Incidents in Iraq 2004-2010

Click on image for larger view
Source: Office of the Director of National Intelligence 

 Security Incidents in Iraq mid-2007-2010

In the past, the insurgents have not been able to sustain these operations for more than a month at a time. If they are able to maintain their pace into September and casualties continue to increase that could mark an end to the ten-month long dip in attacks that have been the lowest since the war began. At the same time, if the average number of deaths and incidents stays at this level, they will only be at the rate of the first half of 2009, which is a fraction of what they were at the height of the conflict.

Monthly Death Counts

Month	Iraq Body Count	Icasualties	Iraqi Ministries	Associated Press	Avg. # Of Deaths Per Day
Jan. 10	258	135	196	177	6.1
Feb.	296	236	352	255	10.1
Mar.	311	183	367	230	8.7
Apr.	376	259	328	321	10.7
May	370	279	337	278	10.3
June	353	176	284	294	9.4
July	418	534	535	356	14.8
August	501	363	426	N/A	13.8

SOURCES

CNN, "Hundreds of civilians killed in Iraqi violence in August," 9/1/10

Cordesman, Anthony, "Update On US Withdrawal From Iraq," Center for Strategic and International Studies, 9/2/10

Icasualties.org

Iraq Body Count

Myers, Steven Lee, "Attack Shows Lasting Threat to U.S. in Iraq," New York Times, 9/5/10

Reuters, "Iraq civilian deaths dip as U.S. combat mission ends," 9/1/10

Shadid, Anthony, "Qaeda in Iraq Says It Was Behind Latest Attacks," New York Times, 8/28/10