Did Iraq Lead To The Arab Spring? Public Opinion Poll Says Probably Not

The Arab Spring has swept across large swaths of the Middle East, and is still playing out today. Starting in Tunisia in December 2010 with protests and riots by youth, the surge for change against the old autocratic and dictatorial governments of the Arab world was launched. Some politicians and pundits in the United States eventually claimed that the revolutions occurring in the region were due to the 2003 invasion of Iraq. They argued that the democracy that the U.S. established there was an inspiration to Arabs around the region. A recent public opinion poll released by Zogby Research Services however, found that respondents in a number of Arab countries and Iran did not think that Iraq benefited from the American presence, undermining a cause and affect relationship between the transformation in Baghdad and other Arab capitals.

Former Vice President Dick Cheney and Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut were two prominent American politicians who claimed that Iraq was behind the Arab Spring. In August 2011 for instance, Cheney appeared on Fox News stating that the United States creating a democracy in Iraq was affecting the rest of theArab world. In December, Senator Joseph Lieberman told reporters that the overthrow of Saddam Hussein showed the entire Middle East that dictators could fall. Both Cheney and Lieberman were supporters of the Iraq War, so they obviously wanted to promote the positive affects the invasion might have brought to the Arab world. The question was did their ideas have any support from the region, or were they just trying to prop up their policies?

A public opinion poll by Zogby Research conducted in November 2011, found few Arabs or Iranians had a positive opinion about the Iraq invasion. The survey questioned people in Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Lebanon, Tunisia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and Iran. When asked were Iraqis better or worse off today compared to Saddam’s time. Egyptians had the most favorable view with 37% thinking that Iraqis were better off, compared to 41% who said they were worse, and 13% who said they were the same. Saudis had the poorest opinion of Iraq, with only 16% saying Iraqis were better off, and 66% saying their were doing worse. In Jordan, 25% had positive responses, 61% negative, and 14% thought Iraqis were the same. In Lebanon, 22% felt that Iraqis were doing better, compared to 57% who thought they were worse off. In the UAE, 30% believed that Iraqis were doing well, 48% said they were doing worse, and 17% said they were the same. In Iran, 25% thought Iraqis were better off, 18% thought they were doing worse, and 20% thought they were the same. Finally, 31% of Tunisians thought Iraqis were doing well, 20% said they were doing worse, and 49% said they were the same. With Iraq going through looting, an eight-year American occupation, an insurgency, and a civil war, it’s no wonder that many in the region thought that Iraq was worse off after the 2003 invasion. There was little that could inspire other Arabs or Iranians from Iraq’s experiences.

Are Iraqis better or worse off today compared to before 2003 invasion?

	Egypt	Saudi Arabia	Jordan	Lebanon	UAE	Iran	Tunisia
Better	37%	16%	25%	22%	30%	25%	31%
Worse	41%	66%	61%	57%	48%	51%	20%
Same	13%	16%	14%	3%	17%	20%	49%
Not Sure	9%	2%	-	18%	6%	3%	-

 

Respondents had a similar poor view of the 2007 Surge policy of the United States. This time, Egyptians had the worst view with only 5% saying that Iraq was better off after the Surge, compared to 76% who said it was worse, and 20% who said it was the same. The UAE were the most positive with 33% stating that Iraq was better, 51% saying it was worse, and 16% saying it was the same. 30% of Jordanians believed that Iraq was better, 48% worse, and 22% the same. Amongst Saudis questioned, 25% claimed Iraq was better, 42% stated that it was worse, and 23% the same. In Lebanon, 28% felt that the Surge was good, 42% said it was bad, 10% said it was the same. A majority of Iranians, 53%, believed that Iraq was worse off after the Surge, 26% said it was better, 21% said it was the same. Tunisia was different from the rest with 65% responding that Iraq was the same after the Surge, compared to 26% who thought it was better, and 9% who though it was worse. People in the region did not approve of the 2003 invasion, and majorities in each country felt that the Surge either made things worse like in Egypt and Iran, or had no real effect overall such as in Tunisia. The best that the Surge could do was roughly one-third approving in the UAE and Jordan. This was different from the United States as well, where the change in strategy is widely believed to have turned Iraq around. The overall negative opinion of the invasion in the first place, probably made people in the region see the subsequent policies as failures as well.

Is Iraq better or worse off today compared to before the surge?

	Egypt	UAE	Jordan	Saudi Arabia	Lebanon	Iran	Tunisia
Better	5%	33%	30%	25%	28%	26%	26%
Worse	76%	51%	48%	42%	42%	53%	9%
Same	20%	16%	22%	23%	10%	21%	65%

When asked who benefited from the Iraqi war, most thought that the U.S. did. 88% of Egyptians, 86% of Lebanese, 81% of Tunisians, 66% of Jordanians 58% of Saudis, 50% of Iranians, and 47% of Emiratis had that opinion. Israel got the second most responses with 72% in Lebanon, 56% in Egypt, 46% in Iran, 37% in Saudi Arabia, 35% in the UAE, 30% in Jordan, and 23% in Tunisia. Many American pundits now believe that Iran will take over Iraq after the U.S. withdrawal. That was shared with some, but not all respondents in the survey. 54% of Tunisians thought that Iran came out on top after the 2003 invasion, followed by 35% in Egypt, 28% in Jordan, 27% in Saudi Arabia, 25% in the UAE, and only 10% in Lebanon. When asked if the Iraqi people won in the war, opinions were split. 35% in the UAE and 21% in Iran felt that way, but that was only shared with 16% in Saudi Arabia, 8% in Lebanon, and 2% in Egypt and Jordan. This was another piece of information that would disprove the argument that Iraq was an inspiration to the Middle East and North Africa. If only small amounts believed that the Iraqi people benefited from the war, they would not think of it was an inspiration for change in their own countries. Instead, large amounts seemed to feel that the United States acted out of its own interests.

Who benefited the most from the Iraq war?

	Egypt	Lebanon	Tunisia	Jordan	Saudi Arabia	UAE	Iran
Iraqi People	2%	8%	-	2%	16%	35%	21%
Iraqi elites	5%	8%	32%	15%	21%	25%	22%
U.S.	88%	86%	81%	66%	58%	47%	50%
Iran	35%	10%	54%	28%	27%	25%	-
Israel	56%	72%	23%	30%	37%	35%	46%
Al Qaeda	11%	6%	10%	44%	28%	12%	11%
Saudis	2%	3%	-	5%	6%	8%	27%
Turkey	1%	2%	-	10%	11%	12%	21%
No one	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Respondents could pick two groups

Overall, the people polled did not have a favorable opinion of the United States, and Iran did not fare much better. 55% in Tunisia, 70% in the UAE, 73% in Lebanon, 80% in Iraq, 82% in Saudi Arabia, 89% in Egypt, and 92% in Jordan thought that America had a negative affect upon Iraq. Iran received the next most negative responses with 40% in Lebanon, 49% in Egypt, 56% in Tunisia, 59% in the UAE, 66% in Jordan, and 82% in Saudi Arabia. All of these countries, with the exception of Iran were friendly with the U.S., showing the negative impact that the 2003 invasion had upon that relationship. Many Arabs also fear the growing influence and interference of Iran in the region, which accounts for the bad opinion of that country.

Did the following have a negative or positive impact upon Iraq? Positive/Negative

	Egypt	Jordan	Saudi	Lebanon	Tunisia	UAE	Iran
U.S.	4%/89%	5%/92%	14%/82%	15%/73%	12%/55%	25%/70%	10%/80%
Iran	8%/49%	17%/66%	3%/82%	31%/40%	2%/56%	31%/59%	37%/4%
Saudis	31%/13%	23%/44%	39%/5%	21%/43%	26%/7%	33%/41%	27%/54%
Turkey	37%/8%	7%/70%	13%/64%	26%/25%	14%/9%	28%/44%	28%/58%
China	6%/14%	20%/4%	31%/7%	14%/11%	5%/3%	43%/12%	30%/43%
UAE	18%/10%	11%/21%	40%/8%	27%/13%	34%/-	55%/3%	26%/56%

Numbers do not add up to 100%, because no impact was not included

Those questioned were all over the place when asked about what would happen in Iraq after the 2011 U.S. withdrawal. 68% of Jordanians feared a civil war, compared to only 18% in Tunisia. 52% of Saudis and 49% of Jordanians worried that Iraq could split apart, but that feeling was not shared in the UAE, 14%, and Tunisia, 20%. Terrorism was also a top concern in Jordan, 62%, but again, not in the UAE, 19%, and Tunisia 19%. Jordan was again the most pessimistic when asked about economic collapse with 48% saying they were concerned. 46% of Lebanese felt the same way. Only 12% in Tunisia picked that topic however. 52% in Jordan, and 49% in Saudi Arabia felt that Iraq could be dominated by another country, but only 7% of respondents in Tunisia felt that way. This question was about all the negative things that could happen to Iraq after 2011. The responses showed that there was no consensus amongst those questioned.

How concerned are you about the following issues once the U.S. withdraws from Iraq? Concerned/Not Concerned

	Egypt	Jordan	Saudi	Lebanon	Tunisia	UAE	Iran
Civil War	30%/ 43%	68%/ 7%	47%/ 29%	46%/ 34%	18%/ 34%	22%/ 67%	44%/ 45%
Split apart	27%/ 52%	49%/ 13%	52%/ 27%	43%/ 39%	20%/ 36%	14%/ 75%	41%/ 43%
Terrorism	25%/ 50%	62%/ 9%	41%/ 35%	44%/ 37%	19%/ 63%	18%/ 63%	39%/ 45%
Economic deterioration	27%/ 38%	48%/ 14%	39%/ 33%	46%/ 32%	12%/ 54%	27%/ 54%	38%/ 48%
Lose religious freedom	27%/ 44%	36%/ 28%	25%/ 49%	33%/ 44%	19%/ 36%	19%/ 62%	42%/ 41%
Dominated by another country	21%/ 59%	52%/ 20%	49%/ 19%	29%/ 50%	7%/ 75%	25%/ 55%	42%/ 45%

Respondents could pick two topics

In comparison with the last question, most felt that Iraq would be doing better in the next two years. Majorities in Lebanon, 55%, Iran, 60%, Egypt, 66%, Jordan 67%, Saudi Arabia, 75%, and the UAE, 76%, were hopeful about Iraq. Tunisia was the only exception with 80% there being pessimistic. Perhaps those questioned believed that without the U.S. military presence, Iraq could finally begin to pull itself together. Despite their negative opinion about the American invasion, the Surge, and who benefited from the war, optimism was alive and well.

 

Opinion of Iraq in next two years?

	Tunisia	Lebanon	Iran	Egypt	Jordan	Saudi	UAE
Optimistic	20%	55%	60%	66%	67%	75%	76%
Pessimistic	80%	24%	29%	23%	18%	11%	14%
Not sure	-	21%	11%	11%	15%	12%	8%

The poll showed that few thought that the invasion of Iraq or the United States did much good for the country. A majority of respondents felt that Iraq was worse off after 2003, and that the Surge made things worse or did not change the country. A majority in all but one country also felt that the United States was the greatest beneficiary of the war, not the Iraqi people, and large numbers in each country felt that America had the worst impact on Iraq. All together that meant few in the survey believed that Iraq was a good example to follow. That undermined the belief of some that Iraq was an inspiration for the Arab Spring. With all the problems that beset the country after the fall of Saddam, that was understandable. Despite all these negative opinions however, most thought that Iraq could finally prosper after the U.S. withdrawal. This view was shared by Iraqis themselves, leading to some hope for the country.

SOURCES

Crabtree, Susan, “Lieberman: Iraq war was initial spark for Arab Spring,” Washington Times, 12/13/11

Reuters, “Witness report rioting in Tunisian town,” 12/19/10

Seitz-Wald, Alex, “Cheney Credits Iraq War For Helping To Start Arab Spring,” Think Progress, 8/31/11

Zogby, James, “Iraq: The War, Its Consequences & the Future,” Zogby Research Services, 11/20/11