Security Slightly Improved In Iraq In 2011

2011 just came to a close, and the end of the year statistics for deaths and attacks in Iraq showed a slight improvement from the previous year. The number of casualties, attacks, and averages all went down from 2010 to 2011. Baghdad and the surrounding provinces remained the center of violence in the country, and improvised explosive devices (IEDs) were the weapons of choice for militants. All of this showed the changed security situation in Iraq. No longer is the country in the middle of a civil war. In fact, it’s barely an insurgency anymore, but more of a major terrorist threat. The situation may improve even more this coming year, as some groups appear willing to give up their arms now that the United States has withdrawn its forces.

Death statistics in Iraq were lower in 2011 compared to the previous two years. In 2011, there was an average of 299 deaths per month, and 9.8 per day. That was down from 350 per month and 11.5 per day in 2010 and 347 a month in 2009 and 11.4 in 2009. The three main agencies that track Iraqi casualties had divergent totals for the year. Iraq Body Count had deaths slightly up from 4,045 in 2010 to 4,125 in 2011. The other two groups, the United Nations and the Iraqi ministries saw declines. The U.N. recorded 4,855 deaths in 2010, going down to 4,056 in 2011. The Iraqi ministries’ deaths were cut in half from 3,713 in 2010 to 1,591 in 2011. The Iraqi government’s figures have been consistently lower than other counts. Whether that’s because officials had not finished their tallies by the time they had to report at the end of each month, or they were told to keep their numbers down for political reasons is unknown. Despite the large number of bombs that went off in Baghdad on December 22, which gave the impression that the security situation in Iraq was deteriorating, it was actually getting better overall. The averages for casualties by month and by the day were down nearly 15% from 2010 to 2011.

Comparing Deaths In Iraq 2009-2011

Month	Iraq Body Count	Iraqi Ministries	United Nations	Avg. Monthly Deaths	Avg. Daily Deaths
Jan.	387	259	265	303	9.7
Feb.	250	167	267	228	8.1
Mar.	307	247	268	274	8.8
Apr.	285	211	279	258	8.6
May	378	177	319	291	9.3
Jun.	385	271	424	360	12.0
Jul.	305	259	381	315	10.1
Aug.	398	239	455	364	11.7
Sep.	394	185	405	328	10.9
Oct.	355	258	416	343	11.0
Nov.	272	187	264	241	8.0
Dec.	409	155	313	292	9.4
TOTALS	4,125	1,591	4,056	-	-
2011 Mo. Avg.	343	217	338	299	9.8
2010 Mo. Avg.	337	309	404	350	11.5
2009 Mo. Avg.	392	291	358	347	11.4

There was also a reduction in attacks in Iraq in 2011. According to the United Nations, there were a total of 5,470 security incidents in 2011, for an average of 455.8 per month. In 2009, there were a total of 8,909 attacks, and a monthly average of 742.4, while in 2010, there were 9,213 incidents, breaking down to 742.4 per month. For 2011, the main device used in these operations was the improvised explosive device (IED). IEDs were used 3,624 times last year, 66% of all attacks. After that the other means were far less frequent with small arms fire being second with 892, 16% of the total, followed by 530 indirect fire incidents using rockets and mortars, 9%, 259 sticky and car bombs, 4%, 135 grenades, 2%, and 30 rocket propelled grenades (RPGs), 0.5%. The use of IEDs has been the modus operandi of militants for the last two years. Before that, car bombs and small arms fire played a larger role in their operations. That shows a change in tactics, as insurgents and militias are using smaller bombs, and more indirect tactics. The overall numbers for attacks, also showed a rough correlation with the number of deaths the country has faced, as both went down in 2011. Security incidents on average dropped 311 per month from 2010 to 2011, a 40% decline.

Total Number Of Attacks In Iraq 2009-2010

2009: 8,909 attacks, avg. 742.4 per month

2010: 9,213 attacks, avg. 767.7 per month

2011: 5,470 attacks, avg. 455.8 per month

Most of 2011’s attacks were concentrated in central Iraq, with far fewer in the rest of the country. Baghdad had 1,801 attacks, accounting for 32% of the total. Ninewa was second at 803, then Salahaddin with 695, Diyala with 551, Anbar with 419, followed by Tamim 417, Babil 283, Basra 125, Wasit and Qadisiyah with 83, Maysan with 70, Dhi Qar with 68, Karbala with 33, Sulaymaniya with 18, Najaf with 14, Muthanna had 4, Irbil had 3, and Dohuk 1. The southern and northern governorates accounted for just over 7% of attacks. Baghdad has always been at the center of the conflict in Iraq as it has the largest population, and is the seat of government. The surrounding provinces, Ninewa, Salahaddin, Diyala, Anbar, Tamim, and Babil either have mixed populations of Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds like Ninewa and Diyala, which militants are trying to exploit, or had large number of Baathists and former soldiers such as Salahaddin and Anbar. These elements are still playing out it in the country, although at lower levels than before as already noted.

Attacks In Iraq By Province 2011

Baghdad 1,800 – 32%

Ninewa 803 – 14%

Salahaddin 695 – 12%

Diyala 551 – 10%

Anbar 419 – 7%

Tamim 417 – 7%

Babil 283 – 5%

Basra 125 – 2%

Wasit 83 – 1%

Qadisiyah 83 – 1%

Maysan 70 – 1%

Dhi Qar 68 – 1%

Karbala 33 – 0.6%

Sulaymaniya 18 – 0.3%

Najaf 14 – 0.2%

Muthanna 4 – 0.007%

Irbil 3 – 0.005%

Dohuk 1 – 0.001%

During the course of 2011, deaths and attack did not always correlate, because a few well planned mass casualty bombings could keep the former high. In April for instance, there was an average of 258 deaths and 486 attacks. The next month both went up to 291 deaths and 581 attacks. In June, there were almost as many incidents at 576, but deaths jumped to 360, because of four mass casualty attacks that month. On June 3, a bomb went off outside a mosque in Tikrit, Salahaddin, killing 19. When the victims were taken to a local hospital, and officials went to visit them, a suicide bomber attacked the facility killing another 17. On June 21, 27 were killed outside the governor’s residence in Diwaniya, Qadisiyah, by a number of suicide car bombs. Then two days later, a series of bombs went off in a market in Jihad Shurt al-Rabaa in southwestern Baghdad, killing 34. In July and August, attacks went down to 433 and 389 respectively, while casualties remained high at 315 and 364. Again, a few deadly bombings led to a large number of deaths in August. By the end of the year, deaths were going down from 343 in October, to 241 in November, and 292 in December, while attacks remained high at 438, 536, and 422 respectively. 

Details Of Attacks And Deaths In Iraq 2011 (Deaths: Iraq Body Count/Attacks: U.N.)

January 2011
 Deaths, Attacks, Types

	Deaths	Attacks
Anbar	8	34
Babil	3	15
Baghdad	125	180
Diyala	36	45
Dohuk	3	-
Irbil	1	1
Karbala	89	8
Maysan	2	6
Ninewa	34	53
Salahaddin	74	31
Tamim	8	13
Wasit	3	1
Qadisiyah	0	19
Basra	0	5
Dhi Qar	0	4
Muthanna	0	1
TOTAL	386	416
Type		Number
IEDs		246
Small Arms Fire		67
Sticky/Car Bombs		48
Indirect Fire		45
Grenades		6
RPGs		4

February 2011

Deaths, Attacks, Types

	Deaths	Attacks
Anbar	41	38
Babil	6	13
Baghdad	24	107
Basra	2	8
Diyala	22	36
Irbil	3	-
Karbala	1	2
Ninewa	36	49
Qadisiyah	4	5
Salahaddin	67	52
Sulaymaniya	10	3
Tamim	28	33
Wasit	4	4
Dhi Qar	0	6
Maysan	0	2
TOTAL	249	358
Type		Number
IEDs		199
Indirect Fire		57
Small Arms Fire		57
Stick/Car Bombs		36
Grenades		5
RPGs		4

March 2011

Deaths, Attacks, Types

	Deaths	Attacks
Anbar	28	60
Babil	24	22
Baghdad	63	229
Basra	10	9
Dhi Qar	1	6
Diyala	23	52
Maysan	2	7
Najaf	2	2
Ninewa	60	76
Qadisiyah	1	13
Salahaddin	79	43
Sulaymaniya	2	-
Tamim	11	37
Wasit	1	8
Muthanna	0	1
TOTAL	305	565
Type		Number
IEDs		381
Small Arms Fire		78
Indirect Fire		68
Grenades		24
Sticky/Car Bombs		12
RPGs		2

April 2011

Deaths, Attacks, Types

	Deaths	Attacks
Anbar	43	45
Babil	13	14
Baghdad	60	170
Dhi Qar	1	5
Diyala	75	32
Maysan	2	11
Ninewa	46	61
Qadisiyah	1	6
Salahaddin	13	41
Sulaymaniya	1	1
Tamim	25	50
Wasit	4	12
Basra	0	14
Najaf	0	8
Karbala	0	4
Muthanna	0	2
TOTAL	193	486
Type		Number
IEDs		335
Small Arms Fire		68
Indirect Fire		63
Grenades		9
Sticky/Car Bombs		6
RPGs		5

May 2011

Deaths, Attacks, Types

	Deaths	Attacks
Anbar	51	57
Babil	41	24
Baghdad	101	229
Basra	1	16
Dhi Qar	12	3
Diyala	27	38
Irbil	1	1
Karbala	3	-
Muthanna	1	-
Ninewa	51	68
Qadisiyah	4	9
Salahaddin	25	65
Sulaymaniya	1	-
Tamim	49	45
Wasit	1	9
Maysan	0	17
TOTAL	371	581
Type		Number
IEDs		398
Small Arms Fire		81
Indirect Fire		74
Grenades		12
Sticky/Car Bombs		9
RPGs		7

June 2011

Deaths, Attacks, Types

	Deaths	Attacks
Anbar	33	41
Babil	31	34
Baghdad	116	202
Basra	2	35
Diyala	34	53
Ninewa	80	79
Qadisiyah	27	12
Salahaddin	55	54
Tamim	10	31
Wasit	1	12
Dhi Qar	0	18
Maysan	0	4
Sulaymaniya	0	1
TOTAL	384	576
Type		Number
IEDs		365
Small Arms Fire		95
Indirect Fire		74
Sticky/Car Bombs		22
Grenades		18
RPGs		2

July 2011

Deaths, Attacks, Types

	Deaths	Attacks
Anbar	22	28
Babil	8	25
Baghdad	52	122
Dhi Qar	1	14
Diyala	49	64
Dohuk	1	1
Karbala	14	9
Maysan	3	5
Ninewa	55	53
Salahaddin	59	29
Tamim	33	42
Wasit	1	16
Basra	0	14
Qadisiyah	0	8
Sulaymaniya	0	3
TOTAL	300	433
Type		Number
IEDs		273
Small Arms Fire		86
Indirect Fire		36
Sticky/Car Bombs		28
RPGs		6
Grenades		4

August 2011

Deaths, Attacks, Types

	Deaths	Attacks
Anbar	14	28
Babil	23	28
Baghdad	49	103
Basra	4	5
Diyala	75	63
Irbil	1	-
Karbala	8	1
Najaf	8	3
Ninewa	37	51
Salahaddin	11	36
Sulaymaniya	3	3
Tamim	11	55
Wasit	41	7
Maysan	0	3
Qadisiyah	0	2
Dhi Qar	0	1
TOTAL	305	389
Type		Number
IEDs		253
Small Arms Fire		66
Indirect Fire		31
Sticky/Car Bombs		29
Grenades		10

September 2011

Deaths, Attacks, Types

	Deaths	Attacks
Anbar	71	20
Babil	31	24
Baghdad	71	60
Diyala	56	36
Irbil	3	-
Karbala	18	5
Ninewa	42	63
Qadisiyah	5	5
Salahaddin	51	30
Sulaymaniya	2	2
Tamim	19	18
Maysan	0	8
Wasit	0	5
Dhi Qar	0	4
TOTAL	389	280
Type		Number
IEDs		171
Small Arms Fire		71
Grenades		16
Sticky/Car Bombs		11
Indirect Fire		11

October 2011

Deaths, Attacks, Types

	Deaths	Attacks
Anbar	24	30
Babil	5	20
Baghdad	175	114
Diyala	28	63
Karbala	1	4
Ninewa	92	75
Qadisiyah	2	2
Salahaddin	12	59
Tamim	6	28
Wasit	3	5
Basra	0	15
Maysan	0	7
Dhi Qar	0	3
Irbil	0	1
Najaf	0	1
Sulaymaniya	0	1
TOTAL	348	428
Type		Number
IEDs		258
Small Arms Fire		118
Indirect Fire		26
Sticky/Car Bombs		19
Grenades		7

November 2011

Deaths, Attacks, Types

	Deaths	Attacks
Anbar	23	21
Babil	10	11
Baghdad	69	89
Basra	35	2
Diyala	27	34
Ninewa	54	119
Salahaddin	37	229
Tamim	8	25
Dhi Qar	0	2
Qadisiyah	0	2
Sulaymaniya	0	1
Wasit	0	1
TOTAL	241	536
Type		Number
IEDs		451
Small Arms Fire		44
Indirect Fire		26
Sticky/Car Bombs		12
Grenades		3

December 2011

Deaths, Attacks, Types

	Deaths	Attacks
Anbar	28	17
Babil	31	43
Baghdad	156	195
Basra	2	2
Diyala	45	35
Dohuk	1	-
Ninewa	77	56
Salahaddin	22	26
Sulaymaniya	2	3
Tamim	22	40
Wasit	0	3
Dhi Qar	0	2
TOTAL	387	422
Type		Number
IEDs		294
61		71
Sticky/Car Bombs		27
Grenades		21
Indirect Fire		19

With the United States having withdrawn its ground forces in December, some militant groups are coming forward to join the political process, which could continue the improvement in the country’s security situation in the new year. At the end of December, an adviser to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki said that two of the largest Iranian-backed Special Groups, the League of the Righteous and the Hezbollah Brigades were ready to join the reconciliation process and politics. (1) Just a few days later, the head of the League, Qais Khazali announced that with the United States forces out of Iraq, there was no longer a need for armed resistance. He went on to state that his group was ready to join politics, but that they may not lay down their weapons right away. Then just before the end for the year, the Reconciliation Minister went on to tell the press that six insurgent groups were also giving up their fight after the U.S. withdrawal. That included the Islamic Army and members of Ansar al-Sunna. That left a few other small insurgent groups left, and Al Qaeda in Iraq and the Baathist Naqshibandi group, which Baghdad refuses to negotiate with. With the groups coming forward to talk with the government there could be another decline in violence in 2012.

Overall, security was better off in Iraq in 2011 compared to the previous years. Both attacks and deaths saw a steady decline from 2010. It’s important to look at the overall trends in security going on within the country, because Al Qaeda will continue with their media grabbing attacks at least once a month. That often gives the impression that Iraq is unraveling, but taking those events in context, shows that the insurgents are actually in the decline. Hopefully, with the departure of the U.S., more militants will lay down their arms, and join politics, as happened during the 2009 provincial elections, and Iraq can be even more secure in the coming years. 

FOOTNOTES

1. Radio Nawa, “Hezbollah Brigades and the League of the Righteous Andon today under the banner of national reconciliation,” 12/24/11 

SOURCES

Zahra, Hassan Abdul, “Iraqi Shiite militia ‘ready to lay down arms,’” Agence France Presse, 12/26/11

Gutman, Roy and Issa, Sahar, “Car bombs kill 65 in Baghdad, worsening crisis,” McClatchy Newspapers, 12/22/11

Inter-Agency Information and Analysis Unit, “Security in Iraq,” United Nations

Iraq Body Count

Al-Mawsawi, Ali, “Six armed groups lay down arms in Iraq,” Azzaman, 1/1/12

National Iraqi News Agency, “Sadr accuses “Asa’ib Ahil al-Haq” of being ‘Seat lovers’, describes them of being killers,” 12/27/11

Radio Nawa, “Hezbollah Brigades and the League of the Righteous Andon today under the banner of national reconciliation,” 12/24/11

Reuters, “Iraqi civilian deaths in December lowest level in 2011,” 1/1/12

Yasin, Nazim, “Outcome of the violence in Iraq for 2011 show declining numbers of victims,” Radio Free Iraq, 1/1/12

Zahra, Hassan Abdul, “Iraqi Shiite militia ‘ready to lay down arms,’” Agence France Presse, 12/26/11