Deaths In Iraq Increased In May 2014

 

Most of the agencies that track deaths in Iraq saw an increase from April to May 2014. The differences arise from the sources that each organization uses. For those groups that did record an uptick, May turned out to be the deadliest month of the year.

Four out of five groups had fatalities going up in Iraq in May. Iraq Body Count went from 1,013 deaths in April to 1,027 in May. The United Nations along with the Anbar Health Directorate had 885 in April and 994 in May. Agence France Presse had the largest jump from 796 to 1,075, while Musings On Iraq counted 1,456 fatalities in April up to 1,468 in May. The only group that dissented was the Iraqi government that reported 1,009 deaths in April down to 938 in May. For Iraq Body Count, the U.N., and Agence France Presse last month was the costliest of the year in terms of lives lost.

The bigger difference between the groups was not the recent monthly totals, but the trends throughout the year. Iraq Body Count for example has had deaths at the same level throughout the year at 33.4 per day. The Iraqi ministries have been around the same range as well with a dip in February to 28.2, but the other four months were at around 32 deaths per day. The United Nations’ numbers are harder to compare because for the first two months of 2014 they did not include Anbar due to the violence there. From March to May they mentioned figures from the Anbar Health Directorate instead of ones they independently collected. Together those two have seen a steady increase from 24.1 in March to 32.0 in May. Agence France Presse has seen the most variation throughout 2014. Deaths went down from January’s 26.6 to a nadir in March at 16.5 per day when the group recorded only 512 fatalities the lowest of any organization the entire year, and then they increased from April to May from 26.5 to 34.6. Musings On Iraq has also seen variations going from 47.8 in January to 45.5 in February then reaching a high of 51.8 in March before seeing a decline for the next two months. The reason for the variations in totals and averages is that each organization relies upon different sources. Iraq Body Count uses media reports from international news agencies and Iraqi papers that are in English. The Iraqi government figures are based upon the Interior, Defense, and Health Ministries. The two security agencies always have lower figures than the Iraqi press however. At the same time Baghdad has been releasing much more realistic numbers over the past several months after consistently having some of the lowest deaths counts in previous years. The U.N. uses its own field offices, the press, and the Iraqi government. Agence France Presse relies upon its reporters and government and medical sources as confirmation. Musings On Iraq uses English language sources such as the press agencies and both the English and Arabic versions of the Iraqi press. None of these collections are comprehensive as there are plenty of attacks and casualties that are missed by the government or press. At the same time they all agree that violence is going up in the country.

 

Deaths In Iraq 2003-2013

Month/Year	Iraq Body Count	Avg. Daily Deaths	Iraqi Ministries	Avg. Daily Deaths	United Nations	Avg. Daily Deaths	Agence France Presse	Avg. Daily Deaths	Musings On Iraq	Avg. Daily Deaths
2003	4,675	19.0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2004	11,608	31.8l	11,313	30.99	-	-	-	-	-	-
2005	16,186	44.2	15,817	43.3	-	-	-	-	-	-
2006	29,144	79.8	32,622	89.3	34,452	94.3	-	-	-	-
2007	25,519	69.9	19,155	52.4	-	-	-	-	-	-
2008	9,839	26.9	9,046	24.7	11,536	31.6	-	-	-	-
2009	5,132	14.0	3,682	10.0	4,611	12.6	-	-	-	-
2010	4,109	11.2	3,949	10.8	4,855	13.3	-	-	-	-
2011	4,147	11.3	2,781	7.6	4,150	11.3	-	-	-	-
2012	4,573	12.5	2,174	5.9	3,878	10.6	1,531 (7 mo.)	7.1	-	-
Jan. 2013	357	11.5	177	5.7	319	10.2	246	7.9	-	-
Feb.	360	12.7	136	4.8	418	14.9	220	7.8	-	-
Mar.	403	13.0	163	5.2	456	14.7	271	8.7	-	-
Apr.	545	18.1	208	6.9	712	23.7	461	15.3	-	-
May	888	28.6	681	21.9	1,045	33.7	614	19.8	-	-
Jun.	659	21.9	240	8.0	761	25.3	452	15.0	-	-
Jul.	1,145	36.9	989	31.9	1,057	34.0	875	28.2	-	-
Aug.	1,012	32.6	365	11.7	804	25.9	693	22.3	-	-
Sep.	1,221	40.7	971	32.3	979	32.6	880	29.3	-	-
Oct.	1,095	35.3	964	31.0	979	31.5	743	23.9	-	-
Nov.	903	30.1	948/ 1,121	31.6/ 37.3	659	21.9	693	23.1	-	-
Dec.	983	31.7	1,001	32.2	759	24.4	668	21.5	-	-
2013 Totals	9,571	25.9	6,843/ 7,016	18.7/ 19.2	8,948	24.5	6,818	18.6	-	-
Jan. 2014	1,076	34.7	1,013	32.6	733*	23.6	991	31.9	1,483	47.8
Feb.	930	33.2	790	28.2	703*	25.1	747	26.6	1,274	45.5
Mar.	1,009	32.5	1,004	32.3	748	24.1	512	16.5	1,606	51.8
Apr.	1,013	33.7	1,009	33.6	885	29.5	796	26.5	1,456	48.5
May	1,027	33.1	938	30.2	994	32.0	1,075	34.6	1,468	47.5
2014 Totals	5,055	33.4	4,754	31.4	4,063	26.9	4,121	27.2	7,287	48.2

* Figures do not include Anbar

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq casualties from violence (2014)”

Faraj, Salam, “Attacks kill 16 as May toll tops 900,” Agence France Presse, 6/1/14

Iraq Body Count, “Database”