Musings On Iraq Security Report May 2014 Over 1,400 Killed 2600 Wounded

 

May 2014 saw almost as many casualties in Iraq as April despite almost 100 fewer attacks. The cause for the decrease was the insurgency having to re-load and re-supply. It was able to make up for the loss in activity by launching a wave of car bombs that left behind a huge number of dead and wounded. This has happened before and represents the current flow of insurgent activity in Iraq right now as security incidents climb for a month, then go up and down the next, and then increase again. Despite these fluctuations the pace of violence has remained relatively stable so far this year.

April and May showed the pattern of militant attacks. In the first two weeks of April there were 238 and 223 security incidents followed by 251 from April 15-21. Attacks then declined to 226 in the fourth week and finished off with 61 in the last two days. The next month started off with 158 attacks, up to 257 May 8-14, down again to 183 from May 15-21, and then rose to 204 May 22-28, before finishing with 63 May 29-31. In total there were 999 attacks in April compared to 905 in May. That averaged out to 33.3 per day in April followed by 29.1 in May. Despite that decline the number of casualties remained consistent. There were 1,456 dead in April and 1,468 in May. There were slightly fewer wounded however going from 2,905 to 2,610. The militants followed this same patter from February to March. They increased their operations throughout February, then had to re-stock their supplies in March resulting in a dip in attacks, and then picked up again in May. That means that any weekly or monthly decline in deaths and attacks is likely only temporary, and more importantly points to an increase the following month.

Security Incidents In Iraq 2014

Date	Security Incidents	Killed	Wounded	Shootings	Bombs	Car Bombs	Suicide Bombs
Jan 1-7	245	363	736	121	111	19	7
Jan 8-14	273	364	683	127	131	23	12
Jan 15-21	205	358	616	85	111	33	4
Jan 22-28	236	305	618	106	121	13	10
Jan 29-31	57	93	237	29	28	8	7
Jan	1,016	1,483	2,890	468	502	96	40
Daily Avg.	32.7	47.8	93.2	15.0	16.1	3.0	1.2
Feb 1-7	204	296	700	107	104	33	17
Feb 8-14	226	258	505	93	126	9	10
Feb 15-21	264	346	703	132	124	22	8
Feb 22-28	251	374	618	110	112	9	8
Feb	945	1,274	2,526	442	466	73	43
Daily Avg.	33.7	45.5	90.2	15.7	16.6	2.6	1.5
Mar 1-7	253	412	702	116	172	21	11
Mar 8-14	206	324	612	86	101	9	13
Mar 15-21	216	423	736	87	134	27	11
Mar 22-27	211	279	580	83	113	13	4
Mar 28-31	110	168	271	47	59	3	4
Mar	996	1,606	2,901	419	579	73	43
Daily Avg.	32.1	51.8	93.5	13.5	18.6	2.3	1.3
Apr 1-7	238	259	550	95	134	18	12
Apr 8-14	223	362	646	96	119	26	9
Apr 15-21	251	406	786	98	132	20	16
Apr 22-28	226	347	744	79	143	14	24
Apr 29-30	61	82	179	8	55	1	8
Apr	999	1,456	2,905	376	583	79	69
Daily Avg.	33.3	48.5	96.8	12.5	19.4	2.6	2.3
May 1-7	198	246	483	88	82	13	9
May 8-14	257	469	752	102	148	25	10
May 15-21	183	256	426	85	94	10	6
May 22-28	204	407	817	71	155	25	14
May 29-31	63	90	132	24	36	3	-
May	905	1,468	2,610	370	515	76	39
Daily Avg.	29.1	47.3	84.1	11.9	16.6	2.4	1.2
Total	4,861	7,287	13,832	2,075	2,645	397	234
Daily Avg.	32.1	48.2	91.6	13.7	17.5	2.6	1.5

In May each dip in the number of attacks was followed by a jump in casualties caused by a surge in car bombs. Deaths went from 246 May 1-7 to 469 May 8-14 then down to 256 May 15-21, up again to 407 May 22-28, before finishing with 81 May 29-31. 469 was the most fatalities in any week of the year so far. The main cause was a string of car bombings every other week. For the four weeks of the month they went from 13 to 25 to 10 to 25. These represented the last three waves of vehicle borne IEDs (VBIEDs) by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIS). The first wave started May 3 with a bombing in Jazeera, Salahaddin. May 4 four VBIEDs went off in Anbar, Ninewa and Salahaddin, and then three more the next day, followed by four in Anbar on May 6. That wave ended with two bombs in Anbar and Ninewa on May 7. There was a two day break until the next campaign was started with car bombs in three parts of Baghdad and Dujail in Salahaddin on May 10. There were two more on May 11, and then four on May 12. This all culminated on May 13 with bombs in 12 parts of Baghdad along with Kirkuk and Salahaddin that left 54 dead and 128 wounded. There was a slight dip with just one VBIED in Ninewa on May 14, but then six the next day with 24 killed and 78 injured. That wave slowly faded with two car bombs in Ninewa on May 16, and then one each on May 17 and 18 in Mosul. May 20 marked the next wave with explosions in Anbar, Babil and Salahaddin. There was just one in Ninewa on May 21, but then seven across Anbar, Baghdad, Ninewa and Salahaddin on May 22 costing 42 lives and 84 wounded. May 23 two bombs went off in Mosul, and then three in Anbar, Kirkuk and Salahaddin, three in Ninewa and Salahaddin May 25, with a nadir on May 26 with one in Anbar and two in Mosul on May 27 before seven in Baghdad and Ninewa May 28 resulting in 55 killed and 118 wounded. Finally May 31 marked the start of a new campaign with bombings in Baghdad, Ninewa and Tikrit. In total there were 289 fatalities and 687 injured from these attacks, which were some of the deadliest incidents of the entire year. Again the number of VBIEDs is only part of the story. Where they are placed can determine the number of casualties they cause. The repeated penetrations into the capital city are usually the costliest because they are often placed in highly populated areas like markets or aimed at the Shiite pilgrimages that occur throughout the year such as the one in May to Kadhimiya. They also highlight the capabilities of ISIS to penetrate the city’s security apparatus. Reaching Baghdad is the ultimate goal of the Islamic State and other insurgent groups. ISIS has been able to move its fighters into the periphery so far, but not into the city itself in any large numbers. Until then it will continue sending wave after wave of car bombs aimed at the capital.

Car Bombs In Iraq May 2014

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
5/1/14	Ramadi Anbar
5/2/14
5/3/14	Jazeera Salahaddin
5/4/14	Ramadi Anbar, Mosul Ninewa, Siniya & Samarra Salahaddin	4	16
5/5/14	Ramadi Anbar, Mosul Ninewa, Tuz Khormato Salahaddin	6	19
5/6/14	3 x Hit & Ramadi Anbar,	4	8
5/7/14	Hit Anbar, Mosul Ninewa	5	10
5/8/14
5/9/14
5/10/14	Husseiniya, Meshahda, Tarmiya Baghdad, Dujail Salahaddin	30	40
5/11/14	West Baghdad, Mosul Ninewa	4	10
5/12/14	Shaab & Tarmiya Baghdad, Mosul Ninewa, Baiji Salahaddin	18	27
5/13/14	Amil, Arab Jabour, Baladiyat, Dora, Ghaziliya, Karrada, Maamil, Sadr City x3, Tarmiya, Ur Baghdad, Riyad Kirkuk, Balad Salahaddin	54	128
5/14/14	Rabia Ninewa		3
5/15/14	Karrada Sadr City & Wahda Baghdad, Hamam al-Aleel & Mosul x2 Ninewa	24	78
5/16/14	Mosul x2 Ninewa	5	8
5/17/14	Mosul Ninewa	4	8
5/18/14	Mosul Ninewa	4	2
5/19/14
5/20/14	Baghdadi Anbar, Hillah & Iskandiriya Babil, Baiji Salahaddin	6	23
5/21/14	Zangili Ninewa		5
5/22/14	Ramadi Anbar, Mansour, Husseiniya, Meshahda, Baab al-Sharqi Baghdad, Mosul Ninewa, Baiji Salahaddin	42	84
5/23/14	Mosul x2 Ninewa		13
5/24/14	Haditha Anbar, Wasti Kirkuk, Baiji Salahaddin	14	44
5/25/14	Mosul & Hamam al-Aleel Ninewa, Tikrit Salahaddin	7	34
5/26/14	Hit Anbar		4
5/27/14	Mosul x2 Ninewa	3	3
5/28/14	Amin, Jihad, Kadhimiya & Sadr City Baghdad, Mosul x3 Ninewa	55	118
5/29/14
5/30/14
5/31/14	Sina St Baghdad, Mosul Ninewa, Tikrit Salahaddin		2

When broken down by province central Iraq remained the center of the conflict. Baghdad had 244 attacks in May with 493 killed and 1,020 wounded. Ninewa, Salahaddin, and Anbar were next with 183, 180, and 139 incidents respectively. Of those three, Anbar had the most casualties with 301 deaths and 560 injured. Government shelling of Fallujah, which cost the lives of 211 and injured another 420, however caused approximately two-thirds of those. Salahaddin had 237 deaths and Ninewa had 204 as well. After that Babil and Diyala had roughly the same number of incidents with 56 and 59 each. Babil has exploded since the security forces unsuccessfully tried to clear the northern section of the governorate back in February. There are still on going operations there, but they haven’t shown much more success than the previous ones. Rather there are more and more casualties there with the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) feeling the brunt of them with 59 out of 85 dead and 123 out of 170 wounded in May. Diyala on the other hand had 79 deaths and 89 injured. After that Tamim has remained largely out of the fighting although insurgent groups are active there. There were only 24 incidents, 42 killed and 64 wounded there last month. Those were the fewest figures in each category seen this year. After that there were a few scattered attacks in Basra, Dhi Qar, Karbala, Maysan, Qadisiyah and Wasit, which represent southern Iraq. There were two IEDs amongst those six governorates, but most incidents were shootings, and could have arisen from disputes between political parties, gangs or militias.

Security Incidents Across Iraq 2014

Province	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Anbar	241 Attacks 300 Killed 730 Wounded	173 Attacks 184 Killed 437 Wounded	213 Attacks 343 Killed 627 Wounded	181 Attacks 271 Killed 555 Wounded	139 Attacks 301 Killed 560 Wounded
Babil	27 Attacks 11 Killed 51 Wounded	41 Attacks 110 Killed 260 Wounded	40 Attacks 117 Killed 269 Wounded	49 Attacks 89 Killed 197 Wounded	56 Attacks 85 Killed 170 Wounded
Baghdad	251 Attacks 557 Killed 1,187 Wounded	204 Attacks 363 Killed 851 Wounded	233 Attacks 384 Killed 947 Wounded	215 Attacks 424 Killed 924 Wounded	244 Attacks 493 Killed 1,020 Wounded
Basra	4 Attacks 3 Killed 1 Wounded	7 Attacks 6 Killed	7 Attacks 7 Killed	16 Attacks 15 Killed 1 Wounded	15 Attacks 15 Killed 1 Wounded
Dhi Qar	2 Attacks 1 Killed 1 Wounded	1 Attack 1 Killed 4 Wounded	1 Attack 1 Killed	-	1 Attack 1 Killed
Diyala	70 Attacks 156 Killed 150 Wounded	65 Attacks 72 Killed 138 Wounded	71 Attacks 113 Killed 159 Wounded	70 Attacks 117 Killed 233 Wounded	59 Attacks 79 Killed 89 Wounded
Karbala	-	2 Attacks 5 Killed 5 Wounded	1 Attack 4 Killed 15 Wounded	1 Attacks 3 Killed	1 Attack 1 Killed
Maysan	3 Attacks 2 Killed	2 Attacks 2 Killed	1 Attack 1 Killed	2 Attacks 6 Killed 17 Wounded	1 Attack 1 Killed
Muthanna	1 Attack 1 Killed	-	-	1 Attack 7 Killed 35 Wounded	-
Najaf	-	-	-	-	-
Ninewa	170 Attacks 171 Killed 191 Wounded	184 Attacks 206 Killed 277 Wounded	180 Attacks 192 Killed 260 Wounded	186 Attacks 243 Killed 358 Wounded	183 Attacks 204 Killed 372 Wounded
Qadisiyah	1 Attack 1 Killed	-	-	-	1 Attack 1 Wounded
Salahaddin	190 Attacks 239 Killed 420 Wounded	193 Attacks 283 Killed 466 Wounded	192 Attacks 406 Killed 508 Wounded	204 Attacks 190 Killed 362 Wounded	180 Attacks 237 Killed 330 Wounded
Tamim	50 Attacks 37 Killed 151 Wounded	71 Attacks 40 Killed 85 Wounded	52 Attacks 29 Killed 102 Wounded	68 Attacks 70 Killed 176 Wounded	24 Attacks 42 Killed 64 Wounded
Wasit	6 Attacks 4 Killed 8 Wounded	2 Attacks 2 Killed 3 Wounded	5 Attacks 9 Killed 14 Wounded	6 Attacks 21 Killed 47 Wounded	1 Attack

May highlighted the abilities of the insurgency, and specifically ISIS to cause a huge amount of casualties despite dips in their operations. The ups and downs week to week during the month meant that the averages for attacks and casualties were all down, but the total number of dead and wounded was about the same as the previous month. That was due to the three waves of car bombs launched by ISIS. The group shows no slowing down meaning that the coming months are likely to be just as deadly if not more so.

SOURCES

AIN, "3 Car bombs explode in Heet," 5/6/14

- "11 persons killed, injured southern Mosul," 5/12/14

- "13 persons killed, injured due to car bombing in al-Baladiyat area," 5/13/14

- "Car bomb explodes in Salah-il-Din," 5/25/14

- "Car bomb explodes in Samarra," 5/4/14

- "Casualties of eastern Tikrit bombing rise to 60 deaths, injuries," 5/5/14

- "Urgent…Tarmiya bombing casualties increase," 5/12/14

Associated Press, "Attacks in Iraq kill at least 29 people," 5/22/14

- "Car bomb blasts kill 34 as Iraqis await vote count," 5/13/14

Aswat al-Iraq, "3 soldiers killed, 9+ wounded in north Tikrit," 5/20/14

- "5 soldiers, Sahwa killed, 6+ wounded south Beiji," 5/13/14

Buratha News, "Martyrdom and wounding at least 20 people in a suicide bombing south of Tikrit," 5/10/14

Farj, Salam, "Iraq attacks kill 38 as 2014 toll tops 4,000," Agence France Presse, 5/28/14

Al Forat, "2 civilians killed northern Babel," 5/20/14

- "2 citizens killed in Mosul," 5/21/14

- "2 injured in car bombing hits eastern Mosul," 5/15/14

- "2 persons injured in Amil's neighborhood bombing," 5/13/14

- "4 IAs injured northern Salah il-Din," 5/5/14

- "5 Policemen killed, wounded northern Ramadi," 5/5/14

- "Anbar: Suicide bombing followed by violent clashes," 5/1/14

- "Car bomb explodes in Baiji," 5/22/14

- "Car bomb goes off in Tikrit," 5/31/14

- "Car bombing injures 7 in Baiji," 5/24/14

- "IA force kills Suicide bomber in Mosul," 5/5/14

- "Tuz Khurmatu bombing death toll hits 18 deaths, injuries," 5/5/14

Iraq Times, "13 injured in two car bombs in central Mosul," 5/23/14

- "The death and wounding of 20 policeman in an explosion targeting the federal police headquarters in Mosul," 5/26/14

- "The death of six soldiers and the kidnappings of four others in armed attack southwest of Kirkuk," 5/13/14

- "Toll rises car bomb attack in Sadr City in eastern Baghdad," 5/28/14

- "Wounding four soldiers detonated a car bomb west of Ramadi," 5/26/14

Al Jazeera, "Many dead in fresh wave of violence in Iraq, "5/10/14

- "Shia pilgrims killed in Iraq bombings," 5/22/14

Karim, Ammar, "25 killed in Iraq as Shiites throng Baghdad for rituals," Agence France Presse, 5/24/14

Al Mada, "100 killed or wounded in the bombing of the nine car bombs in Baghdad," 5/13/14

- "Kadhimiya bombing toll rises to 68 dead and wounded," 5/28/14

- "Killing and injuring six policemen detonation of a suicide car bomb north of Ramadi," 5/4/14

- "Killing and wounding 13 members of the army and the police in a suicide car bomb attack in Tarmiya," 5/12/14

- "Killing and wounding 23 people in explosion of two car bombs east of center of Baghdad," 5/13/14

- "Killing and wounding nine people, a car bomb west of Baghdad," 5/13/14

- "Killing and wounding nine people in detonation of a car bomb northeast of Baghdad," 5/12/14

- "Killing and wounding seven soldiers in a suicide bombing that targeted a checkpoint north of Tikrit," 5/20/14

- "Toll rises in bombing of the al-Jihad neighborhood in western Baghdad to 21 people dead and wounded," 5/28/14

- "Toll rises in car bombing in Sadr City to 29 dead and wounded," 5/27/14

- "Toll rises in suicide bombing in Mosul to eight dead and wounded," 5/16/14

- "Wounded three policemen by a car bomb targeting their headquarters west of Mosul," 5/14/14

- "Wounding five soldiers, including a civilian in detonation of a car bomb targeting an army patrol west of Mosul," 5/28/14

NINA, "4 civilians killed and wounding three policemen, west of Anbar," 5/24/14

- "Army kills a suicide bomber in Baghdad," 5/11/14

- "Breaking News…/7/ soldiers killed and wounded by a car bomb driven by a suicide bomber western Anbar," 5/6/14

- "Breaking News…A second car bomb driven by a suicide bomber in Anbar," 5/6/14

- "A car bomb was trying to break into a security checkpoint detonated in Ramadi," 5/22/14

- "Death Toll of the suicide attack in Mosul rose to 21 policemen and civilians killed and wounded," 5/25/14

- "Four civilians wounded in northern Mosul," 5/7/14

- "Four police injured in Anbar," 5/20/14

- "Four policemen wounded by a roadside bomb south of Mosul," 5/15/14

- "Interior Ministry: The explosion north of Baghdad, targeted a vehicle of the army and led to the killing of 5 soldiers and wounding others, including civilians," 5/10/14

- "Nine people killed, three others wounded in a suicide bomber north of Tikrit," 5/12/14

- "Suicide bomber attack a hospital in Anbar, kills and injures 11 soldiers and police," 5/7/14

- "A suicide bomber was targeting visitors of Imam Ali al-Hadi killed in Salhuddin," 5/3/14

- "Toll of victims of the bombing of Balad up to 27 killed and wounded," 5/13/14

- "Toll of victims of the two attacks in Karrada area up to 56 killed and wounded," 5/15/14

- "Two civilians killed, seven injured in a car bomb explosion in Baghdad," 5/15/14

- "Two policemen and a civilian killed and wounding three civilians, west of Mosul," 5/27/14

- "Two soldiers, a civilian killed, two civilians wounded in a car bomb in Mosul," 5/15/14

Radio Nawa, "The end of the outcome of the bombing in the center of Mosul at four dead and ten injured," 5/11/14

Al Rafidayn, "Tight security measures in the vicinity of the Green Zone after the fall of about 70 people dead and wounded," 5/13/14

Al Rayy, "The death of one soldier and sounding seven others, and an officer in a car bombing west of Mosul," 5/4/14

- "Martyrdom and wounding 14 people in a car bomb explosion in the granular," 5/10/14

- "Martyrdom and wounding eight people, including police officers in two separate incidents in Mosul," 5/22/14

- "Martyrdom and wounding five policemen by a car bomb south of Mosul," 5/16/14

- "Martyrdom and wounding seven soldiers, including an officer in bomb west of Mosul," 5/5/14

- "Wounding a civilian by a car bomb in eastern Mosul," 5/31/14

- "Wounding a civilian by a car bomb targeting the house of police officer in central Baghdad," 5/31/14

Salah, Amjad, "Officer was killed and a policeman and wounding a policeman proceeds of a suicide bombing west of Mosul," Alsumaria, 5/28/14

Salman, Duraid, Ammar, Tarek, "Two civilians injured by a car bomb amidst Babylon," Alsumaria, 5/20/14

Techsonia, "9 Killed In Two Separate Bombings In Iraq," 5/17/14

Yacoub, Sameer, "Attacks around Iraq's capital kill 29 people," Associated Press, 5/15/14

- "Bombing, shootings kill 5 people in Iraq," Associated Press, 5/5/14

- "Bombings, shooting kill 13 people northern in Iraq," Associated Press, 5/20/14

- "Officials say attacks across Iraq kill 14," Associated Press, 5/18/14

Xinhua, "29 killed in wave of attacks across Iraq," 5/4/14

- "59 people killed in attack across Iraq," 5/29/14