Iraqi National Census Returns

In the summer of 2009 Iraq announced that it would have its first national census since 1987. The date was set for October 24, 2009, but the government was afraid that it would cause tensions in provinces like Tamim and Ninewa where there are disputed territories. In those areas, the make up of the population is a major point of contention. Whoever has the largest numbers has an immediate advantage in its claims for control. This led to a delay in the poll.

Now, in the beginning of October Iraq has announced that it is officially restarting the census. The government has one year to complete the task, and it is starting right where the controversy began, Ninewa and Tamim, as well as the three Kurdish provinces of Dohuk, Irbil, and Sulaymaniya. The main difference between the first census date, and the new one is that it will now finish after the January 2010 parliamentary election. Iraqi politicians worried that the census would cause trouble in the run-up to the vote, and now don’t have to worry about that for the short term. When the results are announced however that could be another story.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Iraq prepares for census,” 10/5/09

Reuters, “Citing Tensions, Iraq Abandons Census Plans,” 8/16/09

More On Monthly Death Counts In Iraq

The Brookings Institution recently updated their Iraq Index in mid-September 2009. The newest edition includes updated monthly death statistics. At first, Brookings relied upon several sources, including their own analysis of Iraq Body Count's statistics, and the United Nations. Currently, they use U.S. government numbers based upon occasional briefings and reports by the State and Defense Departments. These come in the form of charts, which Brookings then interprets. That's the reason why the numbers are rounded to the nearest tens.

The Iraq Index figures are presented alongside the other major sources on casualties, Iraq Body Count, icasualties.org, the Iraqi Ministries, and the Associated Press. All five sources follow the same general pattern. First, 2009 has not been as deadly as 2008. According to Brookings there were an average of 386.6 deaths per month in the last six months of 2008 compared to 276.6 deaths per month in the first half of this year. If looked at in quarters, Brookings, and the other counts all go up and down over the last five quarters. The Iraq Index shows a decline from an average of 450.0 deaths in the third quarter of 2008, to 323.3 in the fourth quarter, and 253.3 in the first three months of 2009, before deaths go back up to 300.0 in the second quarter. Brookings does not have statistics for September 2009, but the other sources show deaths going down in the third quarter of the year compared to the second.

Iraqi Deaths

	Brookings Institution	Iraq Body Count	icasualties	Iraqi Ministries	Associated Press
2008
July	500	584	419	465	510
Aug.	450	592	311	431	475
Sep.	400	535	366	440	503
Oct.	350	528	288	318	446
Nov.	270	473	317	340	360
Dec.	350	522	320	316	393
2009
Jan.	270	276	187	191	242
Feb.	230	343	202	258	288
March	260	416	278	252	335
April	340	484	347	355	371
May	240	332	188	165	225
June	320	488	367	438	447
July	220	395	240	275	309
Aug.	300	537	439	456	425
Sep.	N/A	296	158	203	238
Averages
3rd Qtr. 2008	450.0	570.3	365.3	446.3	496.0
4th Qtr. 2008	323.3	507.6	308.3	324.6	379.6
1st Qtr. 2009	253.3	345.0	222.3	233.6	288.3
2nd Qtr. 2009	300.0	434.6	300.6	319.3	347.6
3rd Qtr. 2009	N/A	409.3	279.0	311.3	324.0
Last 6 months of 2008	386.6	539.0	336.8	385.0	447.8
First 6 months of 2009	276.6	389.8	261.0	276.5	317.5

SOURCES

Associated Press, “Iraq: Key figures since the war began,” 11/3/08
- “Iraq: Key figures since the war began,” 1/2/09
- “Iraq: Key figures since the war began,” 10/1/09

Gamel, Kim, “U.S. monthly toll new low for Iraq,” Associated Press, 8/1/08

O’Hanlon, Michael Campbell, Jason, “Iraq Index,” 9/22/09

Kurds Will Suspend All Oil Exports

As reported before, after the Kurd’s row with the Norwegian oil company DNO blew up in their faces over a secret stock purchase from 2008, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) has now announced they will suspend all oil exports. In mid-September 2009, the KRG stopped DNO’s operations for six weeks until it cleared the regional government’s name in an investigation by the Oslo Stock Exchange. The Exchange was investigating a $29.7 million transaction between DNO and Turkey’s Genel Enerji in October 2008 in which the KRG’s Natural Resource Minister acted as a middleman. The Kurdish minister did nothing wrong, and DNO’s suspension was lifted. However, in a letter to the Natural Resource Minister, DNO apologized, but then said that it would stop working on exports from the Tawke field, one of two selling petroleum internationally from Kurdistan, until they were paid. The Tawke and Taq Taq fields began exporting crude in June 2009, but no compensation plan was worked out with Baghdad. DNO and the other companies operating the fields had been working for four months without getting any money. The Resource Minister announced on October 9, that the KRG would now end all exports until a deal was worked out with the central government.

The opening of exports from the KRG was seen as a symbolic victory for the Kurds in their long-running dispute with Baghdad over who has control of oil contracts, and exploitation of petroleum fields. It was a short lived victory, as the regional government never had the ability to compensate the companies doing the work. The KRG’s over reaction to the DNO stock investigation did not help the situation, and now the foreign sales have ended, and are not likely to resume as the KRG and the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki can agree upon little.

SOURCES

DNO International ASA, Letter To Minister of Natural Resources, Kurdistan Regional Government, 10/5/09

Reuters, “Iraq Kurdistan denies wrongdoing in DNO affair,” 10/9/09

Ayatollah Sistani’s Influence On The Open/Closed List Voting System Debate In Iraq

Iraq’s parliament has until October 15, 2009 to come up with a new election law for the January 2010 vote. There are two major issues holding up the bill. First, is the issue of how balloting will take place in Tamim province, home of the disputed city of Kirkuk. The second is whether the country will use an open or closed list voting system. In 2005, Iraq used a closed list system where voters could only pick from lists, which are coalitions, and parties. That gave more control to party bosses who got to choose the politicians that would actually take power. In the January 2009 provincial elections, Iraq used an open list, where people could select either lists or individual candidates. That gave more influence to the voters.

When debate first began on what kind of system was to be adopted for 2010, reports said that many politicians were pushing for a closed list. Those included members of the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council (SIIC), and the two ruling Kurdish parties, the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK). Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was an early opponent.

The entire discussion changed at the beginning of October 2009 when a false story was spread about Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and the voting system. On October 5, it was reported that Ayatollah Sistani would urge a boycott of the 2010 election if parliament did not adopt an open list. That story was quickly denied by Sistani’s office, and Maliki was accused of spreading the rumor since so many of his opponents were for the closed list. The report had its affect however, as almost all of Iraq’s leading politicians and parties have now publicly come out for the open list. On October 6, the Sadrists said they would hold a walk out if parliament held a vote on a closed list. The next day, Vice Presidents Adel Abd Mahdi of the Supreme Council and Tariq al-Hashemi, formerly of the Iraqi Islamic Party, held a joint press conference where they too said they supported an open list. The day after that, the head of the SIIC, Ammar al-Hakim, also came out against the closed list. Finally, on October 10, the Constitution Part of Interior Minister Jawad Bolani, held a demonstration in Basra in support of Sistani’s call for an open list.

If Maliki’s office did spread the false rumor about Sistani and a boycott, then it served its purpose. Most of the major Arab leaders in Iraq are now talking about an open list system. It’s yet to be seen whether this is all just rhetoric or a real sea change in Iraqi politics. The truth will be quickly revealed because if parliament doesn’t pass a new election bill by October 15, Iraq will revert back to the old 2005 legislation, which uses a closed list.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Sadrists firmly reject closed list system,” 10/7/09
- “Sistani aide: Closed list affects democracy,” 10/7/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “Elections draft law completed without agreeing on Kirkuk – MP,” 7/15/09
- “Iraqi Constitutional Party demonstrates for open-slate election,” 10/10/09
- “National blocs want to adopt closed-list system during elections,” 7/3/09
- “Sadrists threaten to walk out of session if vote on closed-list system is held,” 10/6/09
- “SIIC chief asserts adopting open-list system in elections,” 10/8/09
- “Sistani denies boycotting elections in case adopting close-list system,” 10/5/09
- “Vice presidents stress importance of adopting open-list system,” 10/7/09

Gwertzman, Bernard, “Iraq at Crossroads Amid U.S. Disengagement,” Council on Foreign Relations, 6/30/09

Pollack, Kenneth, “The Battle for Baghdad,” The National Interest, September/October 2009

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Iraqi Election Commission Urges Vote Law’s Approval,” 10/7/09

Roads To Iraq, “Election conflict puts Sistani in the middle,” 10/6/09

Synovitz, Ron, “Kurdish-Arab Power Struggle Leads To Calls For Iraq Census Delay,” Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, 8/30/09

Zahra, Hassan Abdul, “Iraq’s top Shiite cleric may urge vote boycott,” Agence France Presse, 10/5/09

Iraq Ready To Blacklist Major Chinese Oil Company, and Maybe South Korean One As Well

China and South Korea have increasingly become involved in Iraq’s petroleum industry. They have signed deals with both the central government in Baghdad and the regional government in Kurdistan. This has placed the Asian businesses in the middle of the on-going dispute between the two sides, which is now playing out with the Oil Ministry warning two companies that they will be blacklisted if they continue to work with the Kurds.

At the beginning of October 2009, Iraq’s Oil Ministry warned China’s Sinopec that it would be banned from all future oil deals unless it ceased its plan to buy a company currently exporting oil from Kurdistan. Sinopec is one of the largest Chinese energy companies. In June 2009 it was reported that it was interested in entering the Kurdish oil market. By the end of that month, they had made a $7.22 billion offer to buy Addax Petroleum, a Swiss-Canadian company that was operating in the Taq Taq field near Irbil city in Kurdistan. If confirmed, it would be the largest take over of a foreign oil company by China. At the same time, Sinopec participated in the first oil bidding round held by Baghdad at the end of June. The Oil Ministry accepted none of Sinopec’s offers however, but it still wanted to take part in the second round of bidding at the end of this year as well. In August, the Oil Ministry made its first warning to Sinopec that if it went ahead with the purchase of Addax it would be blacklisted according to Radio Nawa. Now, Baghdad has threatened to ban Sinopec from the second bidding round.

The Oil Ministry has also singled out South Korea’s SK Energy this month. SK is South Korea’s largest oil refiner, and in November 2007 it joined a consortium operating in Kurdistan. By January 2008 they had been blacklisted by Baghdad as a result, and were banned from buying Iraqi crude. In November, SK said that they would not invest any more money into the venture, and the next month Iraq started selling them oil again. Now the Ministry is not sure whether SK has withdrawn from that Kurdish deal or not. If SK doesn’t clear up the matter, it will be put back on the blacklist.

The Oil Ministry’s threats towards Sinopec and SK Energy are part of its larger dispute with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). The two sides have argued over who has the authority to sign oil contracts, and develop petroleum fields. The KRG believes they can do that on their own, while Baghdad demands that all such dealings go through the Oil Ministry. Blacklisting companies that operate in Kurdistan is a way for the central government to pressure both the KRG and the corporations doing business there. So far, Baghdad has the slight upper hand.

SOURCES

Abbas, Mohammed, “Iraq Central Gov’t, Kurdistan Agree Oil Exports (UPDATE 2),” Reuters, 11/28/08

Agence France Presse, “Chinese oil firms may bid for Iraqi oil fields,” Agence France Presse, 7/7/09

Bradsher, Keith, “As Iraq Stabilizes, China Eyes Its Oil Fields,” New York Times, 6/30/09

Carey, Glen, “Iraq to Start Oil Exports to South Korea’s SK Energy in January,” Bloomberg, 12/24/08

Hoyos, Carola, Warrell, Helen, and Bernard, Steve, “Crude Competition,” Financial Times, 6/30/09

Lando, Ben, “Blacklist enlarged and challenged,” Iraq Oil Report, 10/1/09

Radio Nawa, “The Ministry of Oil announces not to deal with any oil company signed contracts with the Kurdistan Regional Government,” 8/24/09

Salaheddin, Sinan, “Iraq to resume oil sales to South Korean firm SK,” Associated Press, 12/6/08

Webb, Tim, “Oil giants find scramble for Iraq is a game with complex rules,” Observer, 10/19/08

Wighton, David, “Can oil bring peace to the Kurdish region?” Times of London, 6/16/09

Norwegian Company Has Final Word In Kurdish Oil Scandal

On September 21, 2009 the story broke that the Oslo Stock Exchange was investigating a questionable stock sale of shares of the Norwegian DNO oil company involving the Kurdistan Regional Government’s (KRG) Natural Resource Minister. The Minister acted as a middleman in a transaction where Turkey’s Genel Enerji bought $29.7 million worth of shares of DNO in October 2008. The KRG immediately accused DNO and the Stock Exchange of slandering its reputation, by implying that the Resource Minister had acted improperly in the transaction. DNO’s work in Kurdistan was suspended, and they were given an ultimatum to repair the KRG’s image. By October 6, the matter was cleared as DNO was fined for not disclosing all of the particulars about the deal, and the KRG was informed that they were never part of the investigation. DNO was then allowed to continue work at the Tawke field, one of two that are exporting oil from the Kurdish region.

It now appears that the Norwegian company got the last word in the controversy. DNO sent two letters to the KRG on October 5 to apologize. At the end of one of them the company said that it would suspend all of its exports of petroleum, and focus upon domestic production for Kurdistan. In June 2009, the KRG announced that it was to begin selling oil from the Tawke and Taq Taq fields internationally. The Oil Ministry eventually agreed, with the profits being deposited in an account in Baghdad, but there was one major problem. The central government refused to pay the companies, leaving the matter to the Kurds. DNO, and two other companies working on the fields have been pumping oil for the last four months with no compensation. They had been waiting patiently for some kind of payment plan to be worked out between Baghdad and the KRG, but nothing happened as the two sides are deeply divided over who has control over oil deals. In fact, as reported before, the companies could wait years for any money. The KRG’s over reaction to the Oslo Stock Exchange’s investigation seems to have been the last straw for DNO. Petroleum exports from Kurdistan was a symbolic victory for the KRG, but now it is losing one of the two fields involved in this endeavor over a matter that blew over in just a few days. The Resource Minister’s reactions might have also damaged the business environment in Kurdistan as companies must now be worried that their operations could be suddenly closed if they offend any high government official.

SOURCES

Lando, Ben, “DNO’s Iraq operations suspended,” Iraq Oil Report, 9/22/09

Macdougall, Ian, “Norwegian oil company reinstated in Iraq,” Associated Press, 10/6/09

MacNamara, William, “Kurdish oil drama reaches breaking point,” Energy Source, Financial Times, 10/7/09

Reuters, “UPDATE 1-Iraqi Kurdistan suspends DNO’s oil operations,” 9/21/09

Violence In Mosul Takes A Small Dip

Mosul, Iraq's third largest city and second most violent in the country, saw a slight drop in the number of dead and wounded in September 2009. While deaths have gone up and down each month in Iraq overall, violence has basically stayed the same in Mosul. In September there were an average of 2.40 attacks/security incidents per day, compared to 2.48 in August. The real difference was in the casualty counts. There were an average of 2.16 deaths per day last month and 2.00 wounded. In August there were averages of 3.29 deaths and 5.51 wounded each day. September had the lowest deaths since June 2009 when there were an average of 1.93 per day. It also had the lowest wounded count since this blog started following the issue late last year.

Looked at in the long term, there has been a definite pattern over the last four quarters. In the last three months of 2008 there were an average of 2.41 incidents a day, resulting in 2.53 deaths. The average number of attacks has stayed relatively constant since then, but the average number of deaths dipped to 2.03 in the first quarter of 2009, and 1.92 in the second. Only in the third quarter have deaths gone back up to 2.67 per day, largely due to the 102 killed in August. The averages for the number wounded went up and down from 6.71 per day in the last quarter of 2008, to 4.05 in the first quarter of 2009, to 5.25 in the second quarter, to 4.34 per day in the third quarter of this year.

The constant fatalities in the city have led Baghdad to launch its latest security operation in the city called Ninewa Wall on October 1. It's the fourth since 2008, and the first to not include American forces. None of the previous ones has had much of an effect upon casualties in Mosul however. By October 5, more than 200 suspects had been picked up.The provincial council has complained about the operation, saying that they were not informed of it beforehand. A member of the council also said that many of those that have been picked up had no criminal records.

Mosul and Ninewa in general, remain unstable for several reasons. First, insurgents were pushed there during the Surge. Second, it is along one of the main thoroughfares for foreign fighters and money coming from Syria to enter Iraq. Third, the argument between Arabs and Kurds over disputed areas in the province has only increased in recent years. Fourth, Kurdish peshmerga forces occupy part of Mosul and northern regions of Ninewa, to the consternation of many Arabs who consider them occupiers and expansionists. This has allowed the insurgents to portray themselves as protectors of the local Arabs against the Kurds' ambitions, and to take advantage of the security gaps that exist in the city and province between Iraqi and Kurdish troops. Because of all these issues, Mosul is likely to remain unstable for the foreseeable future.

Attack Statistics In Mosul Based Upon Press Reports

	Attacks/ Incidents	Avg. # Of Attacks/ Incidents	Deaths	Avg. # Of Deaths	Wounded	Avg. # Of Wounded
2008
Oct.	92	2.96	112	3.61	188	6.06
Nov.	65	2.16	53	1.76	249	8.3
Dec.	65	2.09	68	2.19	181	5.83
2009
Jan.	52	1.67	56	1.80	56	2.74
Feb.	81	2.89	58	2.00	111	3.96
March	86	2.77	69	2.22	169	5.45
April	79	2.63	53	1.76	191	6.36
May	83	3.06	64	2.06	164	4.70
June	73	2.43	58	1.93	123	4.10
July	73	2.35	79	2.54	169	5.45
Aug.	77	2.48	102	3.29	171	5.51
Sep.	72	2.40	65	2.16	60	2.00
2008 4th Quarter Avg.	74.00/ month	2.41/day	77.66/ month	2.53/ day	206.00/ month	6.71/day
2009 1st Quarter Avg.	73.00/ month	2.43/day	61.00/ month	2.03/ day	121.66/ month	4.05/day
2009 2nd Quarter Avg.	78.30/ month	2.58/day	58.30/ month	1.92/ day	159.33/ month	5.25/day
2009 3rd Quarter Avg.	74.00/ month	2.41/day	82.00/ month	2.67/ day	133.33/ month	4.34/day

SOURCES

Agence France Presse, “Iraq policeman, soldier killed in north,” 9/23/09

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 civilians wounded by sticky bomb in Mosul,” 9/8/09
- “2 IEDs wound soldiers, civilian in Mosul,” 9/2/09
- “4 civilians killed, wounded in Mosul blast,” 9/23/09
- “Blast kills policeman, wounds another in Mosul,” 9/23/09
- “Body found in Mosul,” 9/17/09
- “Bomb targets house of college professor in Mosul,” 9/30/09
- “Car mechanic shot down in Mosul,” 9/2/09
- “Civilian wounded in IED blast in Mosul,” 9/27/09
- “Cop killed, 3 injured in Mosul,” 9/29/09
- “Cop, sons killed, wounded in Ninewa blast,” 9/7/09
- “Disabled policeman injured in eastern Mosul,” 9/28/09
- “Girl, her mother wounded in Mosul,” 9/2/09
- “Gunmen cops killed in clashes with U.S. forces in Mosul,” 9/14/09
- “Gunmen kill former policeman in Mosul,” 9/16/09
- “Gunmen killed while attempting to shoot down traffic cop,” 9/9/09
- “Gunmen shoot down civilian in Mosul,” 9/5/09
- “Gunmen storm mosque, kill 2 prayers in Mosul,” 9/1/09
- “Gunmen wound traffic cop in Mosul,” 9/15/09
- “IED blast kills child, wounds 2 in Mosul,” 9/19/09
- “IED blast targets Ninewa judge’s house,” 9/25/09
- “IED kills, wounds 4 cops in Mosul,” 9/28/09
- “IED wounds 3 soldiers in Mosul,” 9/8/09
- “IED wounds soldier, civilian in Mosul,” 9/16/09
- “Iraqi soldier gunned down in northern Mosul,” 9/14/09
- “Iraqi soldier killed in central Mosul,” 9/19/09
- “Iraqi soldier killed in eastern Mosul,” 9/8/09
- “NOC: Fresh security operations in Mosul,” 10/4/09
- “Officer killed, 7 cops wounded in Mosul blast,” 9/14/09
- “Over 200 arrested under Mosul’s fresh security operations,” 10/5/09

- “Police find body in eastern Mosul,” 9/23/09
- “Policeman killed, child wounded in Ninewa,” 9/3/09
- “Policeman killed in Mosul attack,” 9/6/09
- “Sticky bomb kills army officer, wounds 2 civilians in Mosul,” 9/9/09
- “Traffic cop killed in Mosul blast,” 9/12/09
- “Woman killed, daughter wounded by IED in Mosul,” 9/14/09

DPA, “Report: Four Kurdish militiamen found executed in northern Iraq,” 9/28/09

Al Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq-Thursday 03 September 2009,” 9/3/09

Griffiths, Kathie, “Bradford-based relief agency worker killed,” Telegraph & Argus, 9/11/09

Hammoudi, Laith, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 6 September 2009,” 9/6/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Sunday 27 September 2009,” 9/27/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Tuesday 1 September 2009,” 9/1/09

Issa, Sahar, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Friday 4 September 2009,” 9/4/09
- “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq – Wednesday 23 September 2009,” 9/23/09

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 6,” 9/6/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 8,” 9/8/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 12,” 9/12/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 13,” 9/13/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 17,” 9/17/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 24,” 9/24/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 25,” 9/25/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 26,” 9/26/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 27,” 9/27/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 28,” 9/28/09
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Sep 30,” 9/30/09

Rising, David, “Bombs at Shiite shrine kill 4 Iraqis,” Associated Press, 9/13/09

Williams, Timothy, “U.S. surveillance drone crashes in Iraq,” New York Times, 9/27/09