Monday, February 15, 2010

Casualties In Mosul Continue To Drop In 2010

On a per capita basis, the northern city of Mosul in Ninewa province was the most violent area of Iraq last year. Deaths there have been declining since reaching a yearly high in August 2009. In that month, 102 people were killed, but afterward deaths went to 65 in September, 60 in October, 37 in November, and 44 in December. January 2010 followed that trend with 38 deaths. The number of wounded has gone up and down. Last month 89 were wounded, compared to 108 in December, 71 in November, 82 in October, 60 in September, 171 in August, and 169 in July. In the last two years however, the average number of wounded has steadily declined from 6.92 per day in the first half of 2008 to 3.59 a day in the 2nd half of 2009. For January 2010 there were an average of 2.87 wounded per day. At the same time, the number of attacks has stayed relatively the same in the last seven months at about 2 per day. For the second half of 2009 there was an average of 2.19 per day. Last month there was an average of 1.90 a day. Most of those were small bombings, IEDs, shootings, and occasional attacks on Iraqi security forces.

Mosul remains the last urban outpost of the insurgency, and the Arab-Kurd divide is what they use to justify their continued operations there. At the same time, the election of the al-Hadbaa party in the January 2009 provincial elections has empowered Arabs in Ninewa, and may have led to the decreasing casualty numbers there since last year.

Security Statistics For Mosul - January 2010
59 Attacks/Incidents, avg. 1.90/day
38 Deaths, avg. 1.22/day
89 Wounded, avg. 2.87/day

Averages:

Attacks:
1st Half 2008: 57.50/Month, Avg. 1.89/day
2nd Half 2008: 75.33/Month, Avg. 2.45/day
1st Half 2009: 75.66/Month, Avg. 2.50/day
2nd Half 2009: 67.16/Month, Avg. 2.19/day

Deaths:
1st Half 2008: 88.0/Month, Avg. 2.90/day
2nd Half 2008: 80.83/Month, Avg. 2.63/day
1st Half 2009: 59.66/Month, Avg. 1.97/day
2nd Half 2009: 64.50/Month, Avg. 2.10/day

Wounded:
1st Half 2008: 210.0/Month, Avg. 6.92/day
2nd Half 2008: 168.33/Month, Avg. 5.48/day
1st Half 2009: 135.66/Month, Avg. 4.49/day
2nd Half 2009: 110.16/Month, Avg. 3.59/day

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “2 bombs go off in Mosul,” 1/19/10
- “2 civilians killed separately in Mosul,” 1/17/10
- “2 civilians wounded in Mosul blast,” 1/21/10
- “2 gunmen killed in mortar blast in Mosul,” 1/9/10
- “2 soldiers wounded by gunmen in western Mosul,” 1/29/10
- “3 Christians wounded in Mosul Uni. Blast,” 1/10/10
- “3 soldiers, kid wounded in Mosul blast,” 1/10/10
- “5 civilians injured in thermal bomb blast in Mosul,” 1/4/10
- “5 killed or wounded separately in Mosul,” 1/31/10
- “10 wounded in Mosul explosion,” 1/4/10
- “Army forces kill gunman in Mosul,” 1/4/10
- “Army kills suicide bomber west of Mosul,” 1/21/10
- “Blast inside a restaurant northern Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Body found, man wounded in mortar blast in Mosul,” 1/3/10
- “Bomb kills boy in Mosul,” 1/9/10
- “Bus attack foiled in Mosul,” 1/16/10
- “Christian shot dead by gunmen in Mosul,” 1/17/10
- “Civilian gunned down in eastern Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Civilian gunned down in Mosul,” 1/11/10
- “Civilian killed in Mosul Christian – source,” 1/11/10
- “Civilian, soldier wounded in checkpoint attack,” 1/16/10
- “Civilian wounded in Mosul attack,” 1/26/10
- “Civilian wounded in shooting inside Mosul restaurant,” 1/14/10
- “Cop gunned down in popular cafĂ© in Mosul,” 1/20/10
- “Cop wounded in mortar attack in Mosul,” 1/23/10
- “Eastern Mosul blast casualties up to 36,” 1/20/10
- “Former Iraqi army officer gunned down in Mosul,” 1/26/10
- “Goldsmith kidnapped in Mosul,” 1/14/10
- “Gunman throws hand grenade at police vehicle in Mosul,” 1/4/10
- “Gunmen arrested after attacking patrol in Mosul,” 1/18/10
- “Gunmen kill 3 guards in Mosul,” 1/3/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 1/23/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Gunmen kill civilian in Mosul,” 1/27/10
- “Gunmen kill woman, daughter in Mosul,” 1/25/10
- “Gunmen shoot bank employee in western Mosul,” 1/18/10
- “House blast kills 2 kids, wound another in Mosul,” 1/6/10
- “IED wounds 2 cops in Mosul,” 1/6/10
- “Iraq soldier wounded in IED blast in Mosul,” 1/14/10
- “Iraqi soldier wounded, IED defused in Mosul,” 1/7/10
- “Iraqi soldier wounded in Mosul blast,” 1/2/10
- “Katyusha rocket hits a house in southern Mosul,” 1/12/10
- “Mayor gunned down in Mosul,” 1/27/10
- “Second attack on Christians in Mosul in less than 24 hours,” 1/18/10
- “Sticky bomb kills cop in Mosul,” 1/20/10
- “Sticky device kills civilian in Mosul,” 1/24/10
- “Woman killed inside her house in Mosul,” 1/31/10

DPA, “Two policemen killed, Christian man kidnapped in Iraq,” 1/2/10

Al Dulaimy, Mohammed, “Round-up of Daily Violence in Iraq, Thursday 07 January 2010,” 1/7/10

Iraq Body Count, “Civilian deaths from violence in 2009,” 12/31/09

Reuters, “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 1,” 1/2/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 14,” 1/14/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 22,” 1/22/10
- “FACTBOX-Security developments in Iraq, Jan 27,” 1/27/10

Schreck, Adam, “Iraqi President Orders Probe on Elections,” Associated Press, 1/20/10

Saturday, February 13, 2010

Campaigning Officially Begins In Iraq As Hunt For Baathists Spreads To The Local Level

February 12, 2010 marked the official start of campaigning for the March parliamentary elections in Iraq. Two prominent Sunnis have been banned from the vote however, Saleh al-Mutlaq of the National Dialogue Front and Dhafi Al Ani, the head of the Accordance Front. Both are members of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s National Movement List. Of the 511 candidates that were originally barred from running, over 300 were replaced by their parties, and of the remainder, 160 had their appeals rejected, and only 28 were cleared. This could turn out to be just the latest chapter in this on-going drama, as the banned candidates may not accept these decisions.

The Baathist hysteria has also spread to the local level. On February 11, the Karbala provincial council said that it was forming its own Accountability and Justice Committee to investigate Baathists in the province. The head of the Economic Committee there said that 40 Baathists had already been identified in the local government, and that more would be found. Qadisiyah said that it too was creating an Accountability and Justice Committee. That same day there were protests in Baquba, Baladruz, and Muqdadiyah in Diyala against allowing the banned candidates from participating in the election. On February 10 and 9 there were demonstrations in Karbala and Qadisiyah organized by the provincial councils against Baathists, while a group called the Political Prisoners Foundation led a march in Dhi Qar on February 8. On February 7 Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s Dawa party also put together protests in Basra and Baghdad, Iraq’s two largest cities. Baghdad, Basra, Dhi Qar, Karbala, and Qadisiyah are all ruled by Maliki’s State of Law List, while Diyala has a large Shiite population. These acts at the provincial level are all signs that local politicians want to get in on the anti-Baathist campaign. This suits them well since the State of Law List has not done much since they came into power in the 2009 provincial elections. They have been burdened by large debts left over from the previous governments that have curtailed any hopes that they had of improving services or providing new jobs as they promised when they were running for office. Attacks and deaths have also hit a plateau, and the large mass casualty bombings have weakened Maliki's claim that his party has brought back law and order to the country. That has led them to jump on the deBaathification bandwagon since they have little else to run on.

Even as campaigning for the March elections has officially begun, the Baathist issue just wont go away. The banned candidates that lost their appeals may not be willing to give up, while the State of Law is pushing the hunt for former regime members down to the provincial level to make up for their lack of development and progress. With the vote just a month away, it appears that entire time will be spent focusing upon the crimes of Saddam, rather than the future of Iraq.

SOURCES

AK News, “Demonstration in Diyala against the decision of the Appealing Committee,” 2/11/10
- “Demonstration in Karbala condemns the Discriminatory Committee and Baath return,” 2/10/10
- “Iraqi government: Hussein Sa’eed included within de-Baathification procedures,” 2/12/10
- “Karbala council: 40 Baathists run important governmental posts,” 2/11/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “Demonstration in Diwaniya against Baathists’ return,” 2/9/10
- “Diwaniya council applies Accountability, Justice law,” 2/11/10
- “Karbala forms accountability committee to remove Baathists,” 2/11/10
- “Political prisoners foundation in Thi-Qar protests against Cassation Board’s decision,” 2/8/10

Kami, Aseel, “Bad state services dampen Iraqi appetite to vote,” Reuters, 2/12/10

Myers, Steven Lee, “Iraqi Court Given Time to Review Candidates,” New York Times, 2/8/10

Friday, February 12, 2010

Maliki Steps Into Middle of Governor Dismissal In Salahaddin

Some new details have emerged as to why Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki decided to have the Iraqi Army take over the local government of Salahaddin province in January 2010. Back on September 9, 2009, the provincial council there dismissed the governor, Mutashar Hussein Alawi, for negligence. He refused to step down, and not only appealed his case to the Federal Supreme Court, but sued the head of the council for having a criminal record and faking his school records. The council chief was dismissed by parliament on October 11, but the crisis with the governor continued. The Prime Minister at first said he would not support the removal of Alawi, but when the Federal Court sided with the council, Maliki demanded that he leave office. The provincial council went ahead and elected a new governor, Ahmed Abdul Jabbar Abdul Karim, but Alawi tried to hang on. That prompted the Prime Minister to send in the troops on January 20, 2010. The twist is that the Iraqi Army unit that controls the provincial building has kept everyone out, even the local council. Apparently Maliki wants to name the new governor, and does not want Karim in office either. The U.S. army unit in Salahaddin, along with the Provincial Reconstruction Team there are both supporting the council, and telling them that they have the law on their side, but the Prime Minister has not budged. This is now a three-way test of wills between Maliki, Alawi, and the provincial council over who will control Salahaddin.

SOURCES

Aswat al-Iraq, “Demonstration in Salah el-Din against dismissal of governor,” 9/9/09
- “Parliament dismisses local official in Salah al-Din,” 10/11/09

Myers, Steven Lee and Shadid, Anthony, “Leader Faulted on Using Army in Iraqi Politics,” New York times, 2/11/10

More Information On League Of The Righteous Kidnapping Of American Contractor

As reported before, at the beginning of February 2010, the Iranian backed militant group, the League of the Righteous broke off talks with the Iraqi government. The reason was apparently the arrest of two mid-level League members who were caught during a joint U.S.-Iraqi raid on Moqtada al-Sadr’s new militia, the Promised Day Brigades. Afterward, the League said that they were not only ending reconciliation meetings with Baghdad, but that they held a British and two American hostages. The English captive is likely security guard Alan McMenemy who was taken in a raid on the Finance Ministry in Baghdad in May 2007. The group also claims to have an American they took in 2006. Finally, the League aired a video of Issa Salomi, an Arab linguist who worked with an Army Human Terrain Team that does sociological studies of Iraq, who was kidnapped on January 23, 2010 in the Iraqi capital. A senior U.S. official told the Christian Science Monitor that Salomi’s kidnapping might have been carried out by a breakaway faction of the League who are no longer following the leadership who renounced violence and said that they want to participate in Iraqi politics.

The two League members recently detained are being held by the Iraqi government, so it is up to Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki whether he wants to try to resolve this issue or not. Talks between Baghdad and the League were originally facilitated by the United States who was hoping to turn the Shiite group away from militancy. Since, then the League has split at least once with about 300 members rejoining the mainstream Sadrist Trend. The League also said that it would not run in the March 2010 elections, after flirting with joining Maliki’s State of Law List. The Prime Minister will likely consider whether the League is still relevant, along with pressure from Washington and London to get their nationals released, when thinking about what to do next.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Asaib Ahl Haq kidnaps another American,” 2/8/10

Arraf, Jane, “Kidnapping of American in Iraq sparked by faltering reconciliation talks,” Christian Science Monitor, 2/11/10

Mohammed, Abeer, “Maliki’s Chess Game,” Institute of War & Peace Reporting, 9/10/09

Roads To Iraq, “Leader of “Asaib” militia not released yet,” 1/6/10

Sullivan, Marisa Cochrane, “Iraq’s Parliamentary Election,” Institute for the Study of War, 10/21/09

Thursday, February 11, 2010

Struggle Over Control of Salahaddin Province

There is an on-gowing dispute over control of the northern province of Salahaddin, but few details have been revealed as to just what it is about. The struggle began in January 2010 when Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki sent a letter to the governor of Salahaddin, Mutashar Hussein Alawi, saying that he was dismissed, and that he would have to leave office as soon as another governor was appointed. Under the 2008 Provincial Powers Act the Prime Minister has the authority to remove any governor, but the request must go through the parliament. There is no word whether that latter step has been taken. Governor Alawi responded by saying that he would not step down until he gets orders to do so from the Presidential Council. The Council has to sign off on the decisions of the legislature for them to go into affect.

Despite the procedures laid out under the Provincial Powers Act for the removal of a governor not having been fully implemented yet, on January 20 Maliki ordered the Iraqi Army to take over the provincial council building in Tikrit, Salahaddin’s capital. The soldiers turned away all employees and residents who attempted to enter the offices. The commander of the unit said that he would be running things until a new governor was sworn in. He has been in charge ever since, and he still has not allowed any employees to go back to work. On February 9, he even stopped the provincial council from entering their offices. The standoff led to a demonstration in Tikrit against the dismissal on February 10. Several hundred protestors were said to have come out for the occasion.

Why Prime Minister Maliki decided to dismiss Governor Alawi has not been revealed. Whether Maliki sent his request to get rid of the governor to parliament is also not known. The governor has the ability to protest his dismissal by going to the Supreme Federal Court, and continue with his duties until the judges make a decision, but Alawi has apparently not done this. He is instead insisting that he is still governor until the Presidential Council says otherwise. That’s been made moot by the fact that the security forces are not allowing him to do any of his official duties. Provincial councils also elect the governors, but in this case, the Army has shut them out as well. This is another example of the lack of rule of law in Iraq. The legal procedures laid out in the 2008 Provincial Powers Act are apparently not being followed and the chief executives of the country and Salahaddin are instead resorting to a battle of wills until the other backs down.

SOURCES

AK News, “Security source: Iraqi military force seized Salahaddin Governorate,” 1/21/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “Army forces besiege Salah al-Din council,” 2/9/10
- “Army prevents personnel from entering Salah al-Din building,” 2/7/10
- “Demonstrations in Salah al-Din against security forces,” 2/10/10
- “Security forces surround provincial building in Salah al-Din,” 1/25/10

Iraq Strengthening Provincial and Local Government Program, “PPA Question and Answer Guide,” United States Agency for International Development, 2/27/09

Wednesday, February 10, 2010

Iraqi Politicians Stepping Up Attacks On Each Other As Elections Near

With Iraq’s March 2010 elections just a few weeks away, the country’s top parties and politicians are increasing their attacks upon each other.

First, on February 6, the head of Iraq’s legal committee in parliament sent a request to the Accountability and Justice Commission, the former deBaathification Commission, to look over comments made by Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi while he was visiting Washington D.C. The parliamentarian accused Hashemi of promoting the Baath Party during his trip. On February 9, the committee head went further, calling on parliament to ban Hashemi from running in the election, accusing him of being a Baathist sympathizer. Hashemi is the head of the new Renewal Party, and is part of former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s National Movement List. The head of the legal committee is a Sadrist, which is part of the National Alliance. It controls the Accountability and Justice Commission, and has been at the forefront of banning candidates from the vote.

Next, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki recently gave a speech to sheikhs and leaders from Baghdad’s Sadr City, claiming that he would prevent any Baathists from ever returning to power. He went on to say that there were some political parties that were helping former regime members. The National Alliance took issue with that claiming that the Prime Minister meant them, and accused Maliki of letting 32,000 Baathists back into the government. A spokesman for the Prime Minister’s State of Law List denied that the Alliance was ever mentioned in the speech. Maliki jumped on the Baathist bandwagon when a series of large bombings occurred in Baghdad beginning in August 2009, blaming it on former regime members residing in Syria. His party has also supported the banning of candidates from the upcoming election. This spat with the National Alliance shows that can cut both ways. Since Baathism has become the center of the national campaign, anyone can be charged with helping or sympathizing with them.

These two events show what a free-for-all this year’s election has become. The banning of candidates in January for alleged Baathist ties was the start, but most of those involved were not well known to the public. Now the vice president and prime minister are being attacked, which shows that no one is off limits to these pointless accusations. Once the Baathist rabbit was let out of the hat, anything can happen, and the accusers can quickly become the accused.

SOURCES

AK News, “Iraqi MP Calls for VP ban from polls,” 2/9/10
- “Iraqi MP says: Al Maliki’s Governenment brought the Baathists back to the governmental institutions,” 2/9/10

Alsumaria, “Al Maliki firmly rejects Baathists in power,” 2/9/10

Aswat al-Iraq, “MP proposes debaathification to cover VP Hashemi,” 2/6/10

Only 37 Banned Candidates Can Appeal Their Cases

There are reports coming out of Iraq that only 37 of the more than 500 banned candidates can appeal their cases to a seven-judge panel. Originally 511 candidates were barred from participating in the March 2010 parliamentary elections in January by the Accountability and Justice Commission (the former DeBaathification Commission). Later a few more politicians were added to the list. In early February, the appeals panel said that it would deal with the banned candidates before the election rather than afterward as they originally announced. Officials are now saying that political parties replaced around 300 banned candidates, and that they are now ineligible to have their cases reviewed. Alsumaria TV reported that only 177 banned politicians are left, and that the judges are going through their cases now, having completed 88 so far. Reuters however, notes that of those 177, only 37 lodged their complaints correctly, and the rest have been disqualified.

This is just the latest twist in the drama that is Iraqi politics. The election will continue, and most of the political parties have found substitutes for more than half of their banned candidates, only a few of which were that known to begin with. The campaign for office however, has been hijacked by the National Alliance that controls the Accountability and Justice Commission. They have nothing to run on, so as long as all the talk is about Baathists rather than issues, it suits them well. More importantly, it sets a bad precedent for the future of the country, because it shows that the largest parties can manipulate the entire system to suit their needs, and push around the smaller political entities. Rather than the 2010 ballot being a step forward for Iraq, it could be a reversion to 2005 when sectarianism was one of the driving forces, and the major lists dominated the proceedings.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Appeals panel reviews contests of barred candidates,” 2/9/10

Reuters, “Most banned Iraqi poll candidates’ appeals rejected,” 2/9/10

Salloum, Sa’ad, “commission defends election ban,” Niqash, 1/26/10

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