Despite The Headlines September 2012 Was Not An Extraordinarily Deadly Month

Headlines said that September 2012 was the deadliest month in Iraq for two years. That’s only because Baghdad has been artificially it seems keeping down its death tolls since the end of 2010. Other organizations like Iraq Body Count had September’s casualties being lower than the previous three months, while averaging the statistics found that September was much like July. That goes to show that when the official mortality numbers are released each month for Iraq, they need to be placed in context and analyzed closely.

Despite Iraq’s ministries’ claims, September 2012 was actually not much different from the rest of the summer, which has seen an uptick in attacks due to the on-going offensive by the insurgency. The Defense, Interior, and Health Ministries claimed there were 365 deaths in September. That was a large jump from the 164 reported in August, but close to July’s 325. Last month was the highest official casualty figure since July 2010 when Baghdad claimed 534 casualties. September was also one of the rare occasions when the government’s numbers were higher than Iraq Body Count. It had 356 deaths for the month. That was actually down from August’s 393, July’s 414, and June’s 495. Placing the statistics in context showed that the Iraqi government actually reported believable numbers for September. That month and July were the only two for 2012 that were comparable with Iraq Body Count, which has consistently been the most reliable source for deaths in Iraq since the U.S. invasion in 2003. Otherwise, Baghdad has consistently been keeping its monthly counts below 200. The government is likely doing that on purpose to portray the country as being more secure now that the American military has withdrawn. That trend is highlighted when looking at the ministries’ numbers for 2011 when only five months had less than 200 deaths.

Deaths In Iraq 2010-2012

Month	Iraq Body Count	Iraqi Ministries	Avg. Monthly Deaths	Avg. Daily Deaths
Jan. 2010	260	196	228	7.3
Feb.	301	236	268	9.5
Mar.	335	183	259	8.3
Apr.	381	259	320	10.6
May	377	279	328	10.5
Jun.	377	176	276	9.2
Jul.	424	534	269	8.6
Aug.	516	363	439	14.1
Sep.	252	174	213	7.1
Oct.	311	185	248	8.0
Nov.	302	174	238	7.9
Dec.	217	128	172	5.5
2010 Mo. Avg.	337	240	271	8.8
Jan. 2011	387	259	323	10.4
Feb.	250	167	208	7.4
Mar.	307	247	277	8.9
Apr.	285	211	246	8.2
May	378	177	277	8.9
Jun.	385	271	328	10.9
Jul.	305	259	282	9.0
Aug.	398	239	318	10.2
Sep.	394	185	289	9.6
Oct.	355	258	306	9.8
Nov.	272	187	229	7.6
Dec.	386	155	270	8.7
2011 Mo. Avg.	341	217	279	9.1
Jan. 2012	492	151	321	10.3
Feb.	316	150	233	8.3
Mar.	340	112	226	7.2
Apr.	315	126	220	7.3
May	229	132	180	5.8
Jun.	495	131	313	10.4
Jul.	414	325	369	11.9
Aug.	393	164	278	8.9
Sep.	356	365	360	12.0
2012 Mo. Avg.	372	184	277	9.1

The average of the government and Iraq Body Count’s figures showed the on-going summer offensive by the insurgency. In September, there were an average of 360 deaths, and 12.0 per day. That was up from 278 in August, and 8.9 casualties per day, but comparable to July, which had 369 deaths and 11.9 a day. June was the beginning of the offensive with an average of 313 deaths and 10.4 per day, a large jump from May’s 180 and 5.8 per day. Last year the summer campaign only lasted until October. Hopefully that means militants have a month more left in them before they ramp down their activities. Overall, Iraq’s insurgents have been carrying out around the same number of attacks since the second half of 2011. What has changed is that those acts have grown deadlier with a higher average number of casualties per attack since the 3^rd quarter of 2011. Again, this shows the nuances of violence in Iraq.

Iraq is a country full of contradictions. It is a place with a huge number of terrorist acts, but most of those happen in a few select cities. During certain months violence ramps up, and then taps down. On top of that, it has a government that apparently is trying to cover up the levels of instability that still remain. That’s part of the complicated tapestry that makes up Iraq’s current security situation. It’s these differences that need to be noted every time the monthly death tolls are released, because the raw numbers alone only provide a small picture of what’s going on.

SOURCES

Iraq Body Count

Reuters, “Iraq’s monthly death toll doubles, bloodiest for two years,” 10/1/12

New Public Opinion Poll On Iraqi Kurdistan’s Independence

The issue of Kurdish independence has recently become a hot issue. Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani has started threatening succession due to his dispute with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. Kurdish deals with oil majors have also led commentators to predict that Kurdistan would soon leave Iraq. A recent poll by the Kurdistan Institute for Political Issues found just fewer than 60% of Kurdish respondents supported the idea of independence. While a high amount, it was far below some earlier data collected in the years immediately after the fall of Saddam Hussein. Rather than showing a decline in the belief of the Kurds one day achieving their sovereignty, the poll rather points to greater sophistication amongst inhabitants of the KRG of the problems facing them if they were to take the step of leaving Iraq.

(IRIN)

At the end of September 2012, the Kurdistan Institute for Political Issues released a new public opinion poll. It asked 2,500 people in Irbil, Sulaymaniya, and Dohuk provinces whether Kurdistan should declare its independence. That included 978 people in Sulaymaniya, 892 in Irbil, and 596 in Dohuk. Out of those, 56.3% said they were behind the idea. Dohuk showed the strongest approval with 81.21% saying yes, followed by 54.82% in Irbil, and only 46.42% in Sulaymaniya. When a person said no to the question, they were asked why it was not a good idea. 49.28% said that Kurdistan had to develop further before it was ready to break away from Iraq. After that, 26.37% said that other countries would threaten a new Kurdish state, while 23.1% felt that the U.S. and international community would not guarantee Kurdish sovereignty. While a large percentage obviously supported the drive for Kurdish independence it was not an overwhelming amount. That was especially shown in Sulaymaniya where less than half said yes to the question. For those that said no there appeared a growing realization that will and desire alone would not make a successful new country. Countries that have large Kurdish populations of their own, who do not want them to push for sovereignty for example, surround Kurdistan. They are opposed to Kurdish independence therefore. Being a landlocked region that could prove catastrophic as its economy could be strangled if surrounding powers decided to limit trade as a result. Those are obvious threats however, which the Kurds have faced for decades. More importantly, around 50% said that Kurdistan needed to make more internal progress before it was ready for independence. No specifics were mentioned about just what that meant, but it could be any number of things such as the economy, which is underdeveloped, due to its dependence upon the government, oil, and imports, or any number of other issues. Whatever the reason many people now realize that Kurdistan is not ready for independence yet, despite all the press reports and political statements to that affect that have come out recently.

The 2012 poll is a decided change from previous accounts of Kurdish support for independence. In early 2004 for instance, a petition was circulated, which allegedly garnered 1.7 million signatures demanding Kurdistan’s independence. In January 2005, the Independent Kurdistan Referendum Movement held an informal vote, and claimed that 98-99% of respondents expressed support for breaking away from Iraq. At that time, the exuberance following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein made many Kurds feel that the next step might be their independence. The region’s leaders had other plans however. In March 2005, Jalal Talabani, the head of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, told Time magazine that while many people were pushing for Kurdish sovereignty it was not time yet. Instead, the ruling parties in Kurdistan were going to try to work within the new Iraq. Seven years later, the KRG is still part of the country.

Independence will always remain an issue within the Kurdistan region. Many Kurds do not feel like they are a part of Iraq, the economy is growing, major oil companies have decided to invest there, and President Barzani has brought up the issue several times, because he is not getting along with the prime minister. Still, the poll by the Kurdistan Institute for Political Issues shows that while a majority of those questioned support the idea, there is sobriety about whether it is the right time to do so. Logistically, there are many barriers such as the fact that the Kurdish economy is dominated by the government, which in turn gets 95% of its funds from the national budget making Kurdistan dependent upon the southern oil fields just like the rest of the country. There are also on-going political disputes between the ruling parties, which would likely be exasperated if the KRG moved towards independence. Many Kurds are beginning to realize these issues, which is likely the reason why the Institute received its results.

SOURCES

Abdul-Rahman, Mohammed, “Barzani warns Kurds not ready to live under “dictatorship,”” AK News, 9/22/12

Butters, Andrew Lee, “Revenge of the Kurds,” Time, 3/7/05

Dunlop, W.G., “Oil key to any Iraqi Kurdistan independence bid,” Agence France Presse, 6/23/12

Galbraith, Peter, “Iraq: The Bungled Transition,” New York Review of Books, 9/23/04

- “Iraq: Bush’s Islamic Republic,” New York Review of Books, 8/11/05

International Crisis Group, “Iraq And The Kurds: The High-Stakes Hydrocarbons Gambit,” 4/19/12

Mohammed, Fryad, “Majority of Kurds are for independence,” AK News, 9/27/12

"I Read" Campaign In Baghdad, Iraq

Baghdad recently hosted a literacy event called “I Read” on September 29, 2012, which was put on by local organizations.

Woman reads book during events (Reuters)

Book fair at "I Read" event in Baghdad (Reuters)

(Reuters)

(Reuters)

(Reuters)

(Reuters)

(Reuters)

The Latest Prison Escape In Iraq

 

In recent years Iraq’s prisons have witnessed several successful and attempted escapes. The most recent example was at a facility in Tikrit, Salahaddin in which over 100 inmates were able to get out. In almost every case, the guards and administration were implicated. Iraq’s penal system is simply riddled with corruption, which means these jailbreaks will continue.

On September 27, 2012, armed inmates overwhelmed the Tasfirat prison in Tikrit. The attempt began with a suicide bomber setting off a car bomb in front of the prison. Detainees were then able to get out of their cells, and broke into the facility’s weapons storeroom. It took a day’s worth of fighting before the prison was taken the following morning with Baghdad sending in special forces to help. Over two dozen inmates and members of the security forces were killed in the process. That was not before up to 120 prisoners got out, with around 40 immediately being picked up. Many of the prison’s files were destroyed as well. Some of the escapees included senior members in Al Qaeda in Iraq and its umbrella organization the Islamic State of Iraq. This was not a spontaneous prison riot, which simply got out of hand. The explosion, which set off the escape pointed to an organized operation with outside help. In fact, three more car bombs were discovered near the prison, and defused. The inmates also displayed a high level of organization such as when they destroyed the prison’s records. There was obviously advanced planning, which included militants from the province. There might have been inside help as well. 

The Interior Ministry immediately blamed officials at Tasfirat for helping with the escape. The Ministry accused guards of colluding with the prisoners, and leaving sections of the facility unlocked. It also said that weapons were smuggled into the prison during family visits. Because the prison was in Salahaddin, the home province of Saddam Hussein, this could be a case of the staff being sympathetic to the insurgency. Corruption could have also played a role. Paying off staff members would have been an easy way to get their cooperation in the prison break.

The Tasfirat prison was just the latest in a series of escapes that have happened over the last three years. In 2009, 16 inmates escaped from a bathroom window at Tasfirat. In July 2010, the warden of Karkh Prison drove four high-level Al Qaeda officials out of the facility. In January 2011, 12 Al Qaeda members got out of a prison located in Basra’s Presidential Palace. Guards and the Basra intelligence unit were all suspected, but later it came to light that an official from Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s office might have been involved as well. That same month, a League of the Righteous commander got out of Taji Prison in Salahaddin. In May, Al Qaeda militants started a revolt at an Interior Ministry building in Baghdad in which guards provided them with weapons. That was put down before any could get out. Also in May, five Mahdi Army leaders escaped from Taji as well with guards and politicians being blamed. In April 2012, there was another escape attempt at Tasfirat, which was discovered and squashed. Finally, in July insurgents attacked a prison in Baghdad for five hours in an unsuccessful try to get their compatriots out. Iraq’s prison system obviously has major problems. First, they are not very secure as the number of successful breakouts shows. Second, almost all the attempts included inside assistance. The fact that they took place in southern, central, and northern Iraq would point to more than just support for the insurgency as being the reason. Iraq is notorious for its corruption, so bribes could have played a role. Threats to the staff might have been another means to secure their support.

The breakout at Tasfirat will not be the last time militants get out of one of Iraq’s prisons. The sophistication of the attack, and the large number of prisoners that got out did seem to be a first however. Hopefully that won’t set a precedent, but Salahaddin has seen similar well-planned attacks upon government facilities. The penal authorities also seem incapable of keeping their staff on the straight and narrow. As long as there are determined militants, and corrupt officials these escapes will remain a regular feature of the Iraqi landscape.

SOURCES

AK News, “Over 40 inmates arrested after Tikrit prison break,” 9/28/12

Associated Press, “Iraq’s Interior Ministry: Jailbreak in Saddam’s hometown was inside job, 20 killed,” 9/29/12

- “Al Qaeda suspects escape Iraq prison in deadly break,” 9/28/12

BBC, “Iraq militants attack Tikrit prison, freeing 90 inmates,” 9/28/12

Nabhan, Ali and Dagher, Sam, “Militants Feared Among Iraq Escapees,” Wall Street Journal, 9/28/12

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