24,091 Reported Dead And 39,205 Wounded In Iraq In 2016 (2nd Revision)

Violence in Iraq fluctuated throughout 2016. During the start of the year security incidents were in a steady decline until May and June when they went up slightly during the Islamic State’s spring offensive. They then continued to spiral downwards until August when attacks went up reaching a peak in November, before dipping again in December. In 2015 8,473 security incidents were recorded by tracking over 40 Iraqi, western and Asian media outlets each day. In 2016 there were 7,447, a decline of 1,026 showing overall that violence has declined since its peak in 2014 when the Islamic State swept across northern and central Iraq. Since then the insurgents have continuously been beaten back and their resources to carry out operations has been diminished. During the first three quarters of 2016 the number of incidents shrank from 2,063 the first quarter to 1,936 the second to 1,678 in the third. They then saw an uptick to 1,770 in the fourth, but it was still below the level of the first half of the year.

2015 vs 2016

	Incidents	Killed	Wounded
2015	8,473	26,078	26,021
2016	7,447	24,091	39,205

Violence In Iraq 1^st Qtr 2016

	Incidents	Killed	Wounded
Jan	723	2,418	1,986
Feb	657	1,685	1,724
Mar	683	1,685	2,095
Totals	2,063	5,788	5,805

Violence In Iraq 2^nd Qtr 2016

	Incidents	Killed	Wounded
Apr	630	1,840	1,904
May	675	1,644	2,484
Jun	631	2,111	6,455
Totals	1,936	5,595	10,843

Violence In Iraq 3^rd Qtr 2016

	Incidents	Killed	Wounded
Jul	531	1,329	1,708
Aug	574	1,263	1,376
Sep	573	1,203	1,602
Totals	1,678	3,795	4,686

Violence In Iraq 4^th Qtr 2016

	Incidents	Killed	Wounded
Oct	589	2,965	2,376
Nov	599	4,389	3,972
Dec	582	1,559	11,523
Totals	1,770	8,913	17,871

The decline and rise in violence during the year could also be seen when incidents were averaged out per day. In January there was an average of 23.3 incidents per day, the highest amount of the year. That went down to 21.0 per day in April before going up during the Islamic State’s spring offensive when there were 21.7 incidents in May and 21.0 in June. After that however there was a sharp drop down to 17.1 per day in July. Then things picked up once more with 18.5 in August 19.1 in September, 19.0 in October, and 19.9 in November and 18.7 in December as there was a jump in attacks in Baghdad and then the Mosul campaign got underway.

Avg. Incidents Per Day In Iraq Jan-Sep 2016

Month	Avg. Incidents Per Day
Jan	23.3
Feb	22.6
Mar	22.0
Apr	21.0
May	21.7
Jun	21.0
Jul	17.1
Aug	18.5
Sep	19.1
Oct	19.0
Nov	19.9
Dec	18.7

Baghdad and Ninewa accounted for 63% of the incidents in the country during the year. The Islamic State’s terrorist campaign in Baghdad followed the same pattern as incidents in the rest of Iraq. In January there was an average of 11.6 incidents per day. That dropped to a low of 8.9 per day in June and July before climbing back up to 10.1 in August and 10.8 in September. In October those figures dropped to 8.3 incidents, 7.9 in November, and then way down to 4.7 in Baghdad. It was unclear whether the low numbers at the finish were due to the end of the insurgent’s campaign or due to a lack of media coverage of the capital when the Mosul campaign began. In Ninewa there was a low level of violence, consisting of roughly 50-50 executions by the militants, and attacks upon the Peshmega and security forces. In January there was an average of 2.3. When the spring offensive took off there were 3.0 incidents per day in March, 3.5 in April, and 3.1 in May before going down to 1.6 by July. When the Mosul campaign started that jumped to 5.0 in October, 7.4 in November, and 10.1 in December.

Despite the decrease in incidents the number of casualties actually increased from 2015 to 2016. In 2015 there were 26,078 fatalities and 26,021wounded for a total of 52,099. The number of injured should be 2-5 times higher than the number of deaths, but government censorship of its losses has distorted the figures. The next year there were 24,091 dead and 39,205 injured equaling 63,296. The rise from 2015-2016 was due to the Mosul campaign, which saw a huge number of civilian casualties in the last three months of the year, some of which got reported in the press. The true figures were likely much higher. Unfortunately that meant casualties were no longer a reliable measure of violence in the country. Since 2014 the government has suppressed its losses to maintain morale with none officially reported for any major campaigns such as Tikrit, Ramadi, Baiji or Fallujah. It is likely that thousands of members of the Iraqi forces have been killed and wounded in those battles and have not been officially recognized.

When broken down by province, Ninewa surpassed Baghdad as the deadliest. There were 1,394 incidents reported in the former, leading to 9,559 deaths and 15,367 wounded. That was just 18% of all incidents, but 39% of all casualties in the country. In previous years Baghdad was always the most violence province. In 2016 it still had the most incidents with 3,420, 45% of the total with 5,319 killed and 13,462 injured or 29% of the total. After that Anbar with 898 incidents, 3,846 dead and 6,617 wounded, Kirkuk with 519 incidents, 1,290 deaths and 1,046 injured, and Salahaddin with 465 incidents, 1,116 fatalities and 1,158 wounded had the most losses. All together, Ninewa, Baghdad, Anbar, Kirkuk, and Salahaddin accounted for 87% the violence and 90% of the reported dead and wounded. After those five only Diyala had any significant attacks with 535 incidents, 571 dead and 673 wounded.

Violence By Province In Iraq 2016

Province	Incidents	% Of Total Incidents	Killed	Wounded	% of Total Casualties
Anbar	898	12%	3,846	6,617	16%
Babil	110	1%	242	399	1%
Baghdad	3,420	45%	5,319	13,462	29%
Basra	46	0%	25	27	0%
Dhi Qar	6	0%	14	27	0%
Diyala	535	7%	571	673	1%
Dohuk	3	0%	7	2	0%
Halabja	1	0%	-	1	0%
Irbil	10	0%	13	16	0%
Karbala	7	0%	36	61	0%
Kirkuk	519	6%	1,290	1,046	3%
KRG	10	0%	215	3	0%
Muthanna	4	0%	41	91	0%
Ninewa	1,394	18%	9,559	15,367	39%
Qadisiyah	1	0%	-	-	0%
Salahaddin	465	6%	1,116	1,158	3%
Sulaymaniya	8	0%	1	25	0%
Wasit	3	0%	1	-	0%

Car and suicide bombings have followed the same general pattern as the average number of incidents per day. There was a drop at the start of the year going from 47 in January to 14 in February before a spike in those types of attacks during the spring offensive reaching a high of 63 in May. Then in the summer there was a lull of 16 in July before they slowly rising to 23 in August, 25 in September, 72 in October, 47 in November, and 76 in December. There were likely more from October-December that were not reported, but occurred during the Battle for Mosul.

Car And Suicide Bombers In Iraq Jan-Oct 2016

Month	Car Bombs	Suicide Bombers (Not Including Suicide Car Bombs)
Jan	37	10
Feb	9	5
Mar	18	26
Apr	13	25
May	29	34
Jun	14	13
Jul	7	9
Aug	10	13
Sep	17	8
Oct	38	34
Nov	30	17
Dec	72	4

Violence In Iraq 2016 By Month

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN	723	2,418	1,986
FEB	657	1,685	1,724
MAR	683	1,685	2,095
APR	630	1,840	1,904
MAY	675	1,644	2,484
JUN	631	2,111	6,455
Jul 1-7	120	589	635
Jul 8-14	130	243	316
Jul 15-21	123	168	272
Jul 22-28	115	234	366
Jul 29-31	43	95	119
JUL	531	1,329	1,708
Aug 1-7	109	342	255
Aug 8-14	121	176	245
Aug 15-21	155	388	392
Aug 22-28	134	269	312
Aug 29-31	55	88	172
AUG	574	1,263	1,376
Sep 1-7	119	341	381
Sep 8-14	125	197	313
Sep 15-21	137	172	352
Sep 22-28	159	326	469
Sep 29-30	33	167	87
SEP	573	1,203	1,602
Oct 1-7	129	272	344
Oct 8-14	119	184	350
Oct 15-21	131	618	814
Oct 22-28	158	1,165	658
Oct 29-31	52	726	210
OCT	589	2,965	2,376
Nov 1-7	165	793	751
Nov 8-14	149	589	574
Nov 15-21	126	462	591
Nov 22-28	121	436	1,959
Nov 29-30	38	2,109	97
NOV	599	4,389	3,972
Dec 1-7	126	460	1,045
Dec 8-14	123	448	819
Dec 15-21	136	263	272
Dec 22-28	143	247	3,317
Dec 29-31	54	141	6,070
DEC	582	1,559	11,523
2016	7,447	24,091	39,205

Mosul Campaign Day 77, Jan 1, 2017

Four new neighborhoods were freed in east Mosul, while fighting continued for several others. Karama, Intisar, Younis Sabawi, and Jaffa in the east were freed by a combination of the Golden Division and Federal Police. Salam was being cleared as well, and there was still a struggle for Sumer, Palestine, Siha, Nassir and Shaimaa. The Islamic State was at work as well. At least two people were wounded by mortar fire, and a reporter was injured in a separate incident. A suicide bomber killed four and wounded 11 in Karama, and eleven car bombs were destroyed in Karama, Nassir, and in the southeast. General Abdul Wahab Saadi from the Golden Division claimed that more than 60% of east Mosul had been freed so far. That was an exaggeration, as the Iraqi forces have still not really moved into any new areas yet. Karama, Intisar, etc. have all been fought over for two months. 40% would probably be a more realistic figure.

The army, police, and Hashd were moving forward too outside of Mosul. North of the city Malayeen, Kindi, and Arabi al-Thani were liberated. In the west, Shokran was freed, and the Mosul-Tal Skeif road secured by the Hashd and Federal Police. The latter may not have happened however as the Iraqi forces (ISF) were shelling Islamic State checkpoints on the road. The insurgents carried out three attacks in the north too launching several car bombs.

Agence France Presse reported on the internal displacement within Mosul. Some people were fleeing their neighborhoods, while others were sheltering in place. The government was providing some buses to try to help people get out of their areas. Many times this was happening in the middle of fighting making it very difficult and dangerous for these people.

Rudaw had a piece about rising tensions between the Peshmerga, ISF and Hashd east of Mosul. In the town of Somaqiyah the three forces meet. A Peshmerga commander claimed that the ISF and Hashd were handing out money to people to gain their support, and telling others to leave areas under Kurdish control. The Kurds have occupied a huge amount of land north and northeast of Mosul during the campaign. They claim it all as part of the disputed territories, but they signed an agreement with Baghdad to leave them after Mosul was liberated. The Kurds have gone back and forth over whether they will do that or not however, which was why they were complaining about the ISF and Hashd in Somaqiyah. For now they want to control all of the areas they have occupied.

Finally, since the start of the Mosul campaign on October 17 to December 31, 2016 4,375 deaths and 13,963 wounded have been reported in the press. Because of government censorship of its casualties and lack of access to the frontline by reporters the real figures are likely much higher. The civilian population of Ninewa has taken the brunt of the violence with 3,962 killed and 12,837 wounded. The Islamic State was responsible for executing 2,727 people, and Coalition air strikes were blamed for 315 civilian fatalities and 390 injured.

Mosul Campaign Casualties 10/17/16-12/31/16

4,375 Dead

1 US Sailor

1 Hashd al-Watani

2 Kurd Counterterrorism

16 Police

28 ISF

65 Peshmerga

82 Hashd

218 Soldiers

3,962 Civilians

13,963 Wounded

2 Hashd al-Watani

5 Police

59 Hashd

253 Peshmerga

353 ISF

454 Soldiers

12,837 Civilians

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, “Iraqi forces fully liberate southern Karama neighborhood,” Iraqi News, 1/1/17

Agence France Presse, “Iraq forces have retaken over 60% of east Mosul: commander,” 1/1/17

- “US general hands Iraqis fighting in Mosul vote of confidence,” 1/1/17

Al Alam, “2,000 ISIL Terrorists Killed in Mosul Liberation Operation,” 1/1/17

- “Iraq’s Joint Military Forces Gain Two Strategic ISIS-Held Regions in Mosul City,” 1/1/17

- "Iraqi Drone Attack Kills 20 ISIL Terrorists in Mosul," 1/1/17

- “MOSUL VIDEO: Iraqi Forces in Battle with ISIS Terrorists in Second Phase of Operations,” 1/1/17

- “Top ISIS Leader Killed in Eastern Mosul,” 1/1/17

ARA News, “Iraqi forces target ISIS key supply line north Mosul,” 1/1/17

Buratha News, “Team outlines the military situation in Ninewa We Are Coming operation for Sunday January 1, 2017,” 1/1/17

Coles, Isabel and al-Rubaie, Ali, "Islamic State attacks Iraqi police near Najaf, kills seven," 1/1/17

Dunlop, W.G., “Frightened civilians flee as Iraq forces battle IS in Mosul,” Agence France Presse, 12/31/16

Face Iraq, "Military source: forces took control of the road linking the cities of Mosul and Tal Skeif," 1/1/17

- "Sources: Military Intelligence destroyed two car bombs and killed six terrorists in Argoob," 1/1/17

Al Forat, "Photographer Harbi Hussein al-Khafaji injured on the left coast of Mosul," 1/1/17

Hemid, Leyla, “Iraqi Forces Enter Three More Neighborhoods of Mosul,” Bas News, 1/1/17

Iddon, Paul, “Mosul operation will drag on into early, mid-2017, analysts predict,” Rudaw, 1/1/17

Al Maalomah, "Counter-terrorism forces destroyed five car bombs east Mosul," 1/1/17

- “Defense Ministry announced killing 38 Daesh members southeast Nineveh,” 1/1/17

- "Destroyed several car bombs during the process of Ninewa We Are Coming operation," 1/1/17

- "The martyrdom of four displaced people and injuring 11 in a suicide bombing in Mosul," 1/1/17

- “Ninewa Council: Iraqi forces have not committed any breaches since the start of operations,” 1/1/17

- “Security forces freed Younis Sabawi in Nineveh,” 1/1/17

Al Mada, "Killing 152 Daesh members and destruction of three car bombs in Mosul," 1/1/17

- “Mosul operation resume freeing five neighborhoods with the assistance of the Federal and Rapid Reaction Police,” 1/1/17

Mostafa, Mohamed, “Dead bodies of Islamic State fighters dumped with trash: Nineveh official,” Iraqi News, 1/1/17

- "Iraqi forces recapture more districts in eastern Mosul, kill 19 militants," Iraqi News, 1/1/17

- "Updated: 3 Mosul districts, strategic street recaptured: army, police," Iraqi News, 1/1/17

Rudaw, “’Historic cooperation’ of Kurdish, Iraqi forces not evident in ‘disputed areas,’” 1/1/17

- “’No substantial barriers’ to Iraqi army in E. Mosul, says commander,” 1/1/17

Musings On Iraq In The News

I was cited in “The Fall of Aleppo Is a Huge Gift to ISIS” by Michael Weiss and Hassan Hassan in the Daily Beast and in "Batalle de Mossoul: Des Combats De Rues Sanglants Entre L'Armee Irakienne Et Les Djihadistes De Daech" in France Soir. 

Mosul Campaign Day 76, Dec 31, 2016

There was more progress made inside and out of Mosul on December 31. The second part of Quds and Sinai were freed, and a town outside the city in the north as well. There was contradictory news about the Hadbaa neighborhood in the north. Most reports said that the Iraqi forces hadn’t entered it yet, but one said that it had been liberated. Since November there have been several reports that the area had been reached, but all of those appeared to be exaggerations. Jadaydat al-Mufti and Qadisiyah were also attacked. The Rapid Reaction police arrived in Intisar to help the 9^th Division, and there was still fighting going in Sumer, both in the southeast, and Karama in the east, along with Salam, Nassir, and Shamiaa. The Islamic State on the other hand attacked Wahda, Tamim, Quds, Karama, Sada, and Intisar with several car bombs.

The Associated Press had a story on Nimrod. The town was freed in November and is the site of an ancient Assyrian capital. The Islamic State made a video destroying parts of the place when it conquered it. Today the village is unprotected and people are slowly looting it. With the government still fighting the battle for Mosul there is no telling when or if the place will be secured and its history protected.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "CTS destroys 4 car bombs in eastern Mosul," iraqi News, 12/31/16

- "Federal Police kills IS elite elader in eastern Mosul," Iraqi News, 12/31/16

- "Iraqi forces free 2 neighborhoods in Mosul," Iraqi News, 12/10/16

- "Joint forces continue liberating 6 areas in western coast of Mosul," Iraqi News, 11/17/16

- "Security forces kill 6 IS fighters, destroy car bomb near Mosul," 12/31/16

Agence France Presse, “Elite Iraq units link up for Mosul assault: officers,” 12/31/16

AIN, “Security forces control more neighborhoods of Mosul, killing 220 Daash today,” 12/31/16

Al Alam, “VID: Iraqi Joint Forces Resume Mosul Operation by Advancing from 3 Sides,” 12/31/16

Buratha News, “Recent development in the field of freeing Mosul until 19:40 Saturday 31 12 2016,” 12/31/16

Hinant, Lori, “IS turned Iraq’s history to rubble – now the mess has been left to looters,” Associated Press, 12/31/16

Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul: Dec. 31, 2016,” 12/31/16

Al Maalomah, “Commander of Ninewa Operations: We will declare the liberation of the left coast of Mosul soon,” 12/31/16

- “Counter-terrorism forces kill three Daesh members east Mosul,” 12/31/16

Al Mada, "Freed Aerkkub area north of Mosul," 12/31/16

New Sabah, "A break in the fight against terrorism as Qadisiyah neighborhood in Mosul is completely freed," 11/11/16

NINA, “Federal Police Kill 25 Terrorists In The Left Side Of Mosul,” 12/31/16

- “Int’l Coalition To Bombard Daesh Sites And Security Forces Free Hadbaa Region North Of Mosul,” 12/31/16

- “Security Forces Move Dozens Of Displaced And Repel Three Attacks To Daesh In Mosul,” 12/31/16

Raheem, Kareem and Rasheed, Ahmed, “Baghdad blasts kill 29 as Mosul fighting intensifies,” Reuters, 12/31/16

Rojkan, Mira, "Iraqi Forces Liberate New Areas in Western Mosul," Bas News, 12/31/16

Rudaw, “5,000 US ground troops stationed near Mosul, says Iraqi army commander,” 12/31/16

- "Iraqi army makes gains in Mosul as ISIS suicide blasts kill 28 in Baghdad," 12/31/16

Al Sumaria, “Abadi: Ninewa, we are coming operation entered a decisive phase,” 12/31/16

- “B-52 plans bombed northern Mosul, security forces approaching Hadbaa neighborhood,” 12/31/16

- “Counterterrorism forces liberated Quds 2 neighborhood in Mosul,” 12/31/16