Monday, March 15, 2010

Early Iraqi Election Results Update

Iraq’s Election Commission has updated its partial results from the March 7, 2010 parliamentary elections. The count is uneven across the country. In the southern province of Wasit for example 67% of the votes have been counted, while in Salahaddin only 17% were tallied. As before Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s list is still in first place with the lead in seven provinces Babil, Baghdad, Basra, Karbala, Muthanna, Najaf, and Wasit. Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement/Iraqiya has the second most first place finishes so far in Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa, Salahaddin, and surprisingly Tamim. The Supreme Council-Sadrist led Iraqi National Alliance is in the lead in Dhi Qar, Maysan, and Qadisiyah. Finally, the Kurdish Alliance is in front in Dohuk, Irbil, and Sulaymaniya.

Partial Early Election Results

Winning Lists
State of Law: Babil, Baghdad, Basra, Karbala, Muthanna, Najaf, Wasit
Iraqi National Movement: Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa, Salahaddin, Tamim
Iraqi National Alliance: Dhi Qar, Maysan, Qadisiyah
Kurdish Alliance: Dohuk, Irbil, Sulaymaniya

59% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 122,195
2. Accordance Front 22,546
3. Unity of Iraq 18,321
4. State of Law 2,898
5. Iraqi National Alliance 2,019

34% counted
1. State of Law 72,410
2. Iraqi National Alliance 57,630
3. Iraqi National Movement 33,622
4. Unity of Iraq 5,427
5. Accordance Front 3,059
6. Kurdish Alliance 382

18% counted
1. State of Law 158,763
2. Iraqi National Alliance 108,126
3. Iraqi National Movement 104,810
4. Accordance Front 6,036
5. Unity of Iraq 4,219
6. Kurdish Alliance 3,673
7. Change List 330
8. Kurdish Islamic Union 161

63% counted
1. State of Law 219,657
2. Iraqi National Alliance 121,497
3. Iraqi National Movement 36,093
4. Accordance Front 9,111
5. Unity of Iraq 4,859

Dhi Qar
1. Iraqi National Alliance 120,028
2. State of Law 114,354
3. Iraqi National Movement 20,674
4. Unity of Iraq 10,508
5. Kurdish Alliance 190

17% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 42,648
2. Iraqi National Alliance 10,645
3. State of Law 10,119
4. Kurdish Alliance 7,058
5. Accordance Front 3,923
6. Change List 1,409
7. Unity of Iraq 1,193
8. Kurdish Islamic Union 341

55.6% counted
1. Kurdish Alliance 170,960
2. Kurdish Islamic Union 31,053
3. Change List 12,570
4. Rafidain 2,619
5. Kurdish Islamic Group 1,555
6. Iraqi National Alliance 84

30% counted
1. Kurdish Alliance 96,378
2. Change List 20,691
3. Kurdish Islamic Group 12,444
4. Kurdish Islamic Union 10,401
5. Iraqi National Alliance 71

35% counted
1. State of Law 69,496
2. Iraqi National Alliance 31,992
3. Iraqi National Movement 14,339
4. Unity of Iraq 4,571

23% counted
1. Iraqi National Alliance 29,454
2. State of Law 22,460
3. Iraqi National Movement 3,201
4. Unity of Iraq 1,270

18% counted
1. State of Law 14,981
2. Iraqi National Alliance 11,154
3. Unity of Iraq 4,209
4. Iraqi National Movement 2,886
5. Kurdish Alliance 488
6. Accordance Front 124

34% counted
1. State of Law 55,953
2. Iraqi National Alliance 48,674
3. Iraqi National Movement 9,104
4. Unity of Iraq 2,477
5. Kurdish Alliance 154

15% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 62,212
2. Kurdish Alliance 19,055
3. Accordance Front 7,108
4. Unity of Iraq 4,624
5. Iraqi National Alliance 3,508
6. State of Law 1,812
7. Change List 510
8. Kurdish Islamic Union 431
9. Kurdish Islamic Group 69

10% counted
1. Iraqi National Alliance 2,153
2. State of Law 1,519
3. Iraqi National Movement 651
4. Unity of Iraq 490
5. Kurdish Alliance 14

17% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 34,476
2. Accordance Front 10,110
3. Unity of Iraq 7,601
4. State of Law 6,988
5. Iraqi National Alliance 4,988
6. Kurdish Alliance 3,207
7. Change List 365

63.6% counted
1. Kurdish Alliance 178,071
2. Change List 160,144
3. Kurdish Islamic Union 56,840
4. Kurdish Islamic Group 43,908
5. Iraqi National Alliance 104

61.9% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 123,862
2. Kurdish Alliance 120,664
3. Change List 20,152
4. Kurdish Islamic Union 14,471
5. Accordance Front
6. Kurdish Islamic Alliance 7,887
7. Iraqi National Alliance 7,887
8. State of Law 7,805

67% counted
1. State of Law 66,794
2. Iraqi National Alliance 58,382
3. Iraqi National Movement 22,607
4. Unity of Iraq 8,512
5. Mithal al-Alusi 2,330
6. Kurdish Alliance 361


The Majlis, “Results: Iraq’s 2010 parliamentary election,” 3/15/10

Wall Street Journal, “The Election in Iraq,” 3/15/10


Jason said...

The INA is doing much better than I had hoped.

Look at the Change list in Sulaymania. That's interesting.

Joel Wing said...

Change won Sulaymaniya in the July 09 Kurdish elections. They're also doing well in Irbil. They ran across northern Iraq as well and aren't doing very well in those other provinces despite a concerted effort. They were hoping to do well in Ninewa for example but are currently pulling 7th, but only 15% has been counted there.

Anonymous said...

The NIA is full of Islamist / fanatical parties. No doubt they're on the receiving end of a lot of Iranian support.
The State of Law list is led by a notorious Islamist party, Al Dawa.
I hope the NIM wins the parliamentary elections. They're dedicated to Iraq and to old secular practices, not quasi-Islamism like Dawa and their Iranian supporters are.

The Change List is primarily Kurdish. Sulaymaniya is mostly Kurdish. The numbers are to be expected there.

Jason said...

I keep seeing conflicting reporting about whether it is a majority or 2/3's required to form a government. That would certainly be important to know since it is a huge difference.

Joel Wing said...

It's just a majority

Jason said...

No specifics, but just read a report suggesting that within the INA, Sadr's candidates are handily beating SIIC. What would be the significance of that, both in terms of forming governing coalition and more generally?

I understand Sadr absolutely will not accept Maliki as PM?

Joel Wing said...

Visser has been writing about the Sadrists' showing within the National Alliance. Then the Wall St. Journal just had a piece about it as well. They have said they won't join with Maliki unless their followers are released from prison. That would seem to be an easy demand to meet for him.

Jason said...

Is Allawi really ahead? It's frustrating how bad the reporting is with Journalists' complete failure to acknowledge Iraq's proportional system. If Allawi is ahead in total votes, he should also be ahead in MP's, unless the seats are not properly allocated according to population.

bb said...

An absolute majority. In effect this means 168 votes out of 325 member COR.

Article 76 Iraq Constitution:

Fourth: The Prime Minister-designate shall present the names of his members of the Council of Ministers and the ministerial program to the Council of
Representatives. He is deemed to have gained its confidence upon the approval,by an absolute majority of the Council of Representatives, of the individual
Ministers and the ministerial program.

Jason said...

Unbelievable, Allawi and Maliki now reported in dead tie at 87 MP's. Who gets first chance to form a govt?

Jason said...

Let's look at who are the actual "issue" voters:

(1) Kurds - want to annex large swath of Iraqi territory and oil wealth, which is strongly opposed by Allawi, Maliki, and Sadr voters.

(2) Sadrists - Want to kick Americans out so they can make a run at ruling Iraq as their corrupt fiefdom, which is opposed by Allawi, Maliki, and Kurd voters.

(3) SIIC - Want to form Iran-allied autonomous Shia region in south with religious rule, which is opposed by Allawi, Maliki, and Sadr voters.

(4) Allawi/Maliki (53% of MP's)- Ran on nationalism and security, but on behalf of opposite sides of the sectarian divide.

So forming a govt will be a contest between genuine political issues and sectarianism. Sectarianism won last time. Will it happen again?

My preferred outcome would be an Iraqiya/State of Law alliance where the two figureheads agree on a relative unknown technocrat for PM. Yes, it's a very tall order.

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