Saturday, March 13, 2010

Early Iraqi Election Results And Predictions

The Iraqi Election Commission is slowly releasing some preliminary results for the March 2010 parliamentary balloting. So far the Commission has released partial results for five provinces, Babil, Irbil, Najaf, Diyala, Maysan, and Salahaddin. The Commission has counted 33% of the vote in Babil, 34% in Najaf, 28% in Irbil, and 17% in Diyala and Salahaddin each. The Commission has not reported how much of the vote in Maysan has been processed yet. Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law List was leading in two southern provinces, Babil and Najaf. Its Shiite rival the National Alliance was ahead in Maysan. In Irbil in Kurdistan, the Kurdish Alliance was in first place, while in Diyala and Salahaddin former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s National Movement was the front-runner.

Major Lists In The 2010 Vote
State of Law – Prime Minister Maliki’s Dawa Party
National Alliance – Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, Sadrists, former Prime Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari, Fadhila Party, Iraqi National Congress
National Movement – Former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National List, Iraqi National Dialogue Front
Kurdish Alliance – Kurdistan Democratic Party, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
Unity of Iraq – Interior Minister Jawad Bolani’s Constitution Party, Sheikh Ahmad Abu Risha’s Awakening of Iraq and Independents
Accordance Front – Iraqi Islamic Party
Change – New Kurdish opposition party
Islamic Union – Kurdish Islamic party
Kurdish Islamic Union – Kurdish Islamic party

Winners/% Of Vote Counted By Election Commission
State Of Law – Babil/34%, Najaf/28%
National Movement – Diyala/17%, Salahaddin/17%
Kurdish Alliance – Irbil/28%
National Alliance - Maysan

Early-Partial Results

Babil
1. State of Law
2. National Alliance
3. National Movement
4. Unity of Iraq
5. Kurdish Alliance

Diyala
1. National Movement
2. National Alliance
3. State of Law
4. Kurdish Alliance
5. Unity of Iraq

Irbil
1. Kurdish Alliance
2. Change
3. Islamic Union
4. Kurdish Islamic Union

Maysan
1. National Alliance
2. State of Law
3. National Movement
4. Unity of Iraq

Najaf
1. State of Law
2. National Alliance
3. National Movement
4. Unity of Iraq
5. Kurdish Alliance

Salahaddin
1. National Movement
2. Accordance Front
3. Unity of Iraq
4. State of Law
5. National Alliance

An exit poll by Ayn al Iraq, an election-monitoring group has also been released. It was based upon text messages from 25,565 voters in fifteen of Iraq’s provinces. It didn’t include the three provinces in Kurdistan. Ayn only reported on the top three lists in each governorate. They found that State of Law was ahead in nine provinces, the National Movement held sway in five provinces, while the National Alliance was the winner in Dhi Qar. When compared to the partial results released by the Election Commission, Ayn’s prediction is holding true in Babil, Diyala, and Najaf, but was off in Maysan and Salahaddin. In the former, Ayn had the State of Law coming in first, followed by the National Alliance and the National Movement. The early results show the National Alliance in first, State of Law in 2nd, and the National Movement 3rd. In Salahaddin Ayn found the National Movement 1st, State of Law 2nd and the Unity of Iraq 3rd. The Election Commission has the National Movement in 1st, followed by the Iraqi Consensus, and then the Unity of Iraq.

Winners
State of Law – Babil, Baghdad, Basra, Karbala, Maysan, Muthanna, Najaf, Qadisiyah, Wasit
National Movement – Anbar, Diyala, Ninewa, Salahaddin, Tamim
National Alliance – Dhi Qar

Anbar
National Movement 75%
Unity of Iraq 7%
National Alliance 3%

Babil
State of Law 41%
National Alliance 29%
National Movement 19%

Baghdad
State of Law 35%
National Movement 21%
National Alliance 17%

Basra
State of Law 51%
National Alliance 30%
National Movement 7%

Dhi Qar
National Alliance 38%
State of Law 35%
National Movement 8%

Diyala
National Movement 49%
National Alliance 19%
State of Law 15%

Karbala
State of Law 57%
National Alliance 31%
National Movement 11%

Maysan
State of Law 46%
National Alliance 39%
National Movement 7%

Muthanna
State of Law 44%
National Alliance 31%
National Movement 11%

Najaf
State of Law 49%
National Alliance 30%
National Movement 7%

Ninewa
National Movement 51%
Unity of Iraq 31%
Accordance Front 6%

Qadisiyah
State of Law 40%
National Alliance 31%
National Movement 23%

Salahaddin
National Movement 65%
State of Law 14%
Unity of Iraq 10%

Tamim
National Movement 37%
Kurdish Alliance 34%
State of Law 5%

Wasit
State of Law 49%
National Alliance 34%
National Movement 10%

Overall, if Ayn’s results and the Election Commission’s returns hold up, they would show that Maliki’s State of Law still holds sway over southern Iraq and Baghdad as it did in the January 2009 provincial elections, and the Kurdish Alliance is still in control of Kurdistan. The Sunni vote was divided between various parties in 2009, but this year it has coalesced around Allawi’s list. Finally, the National Alliance has faced its second major defeat. As in 2009, it has lost a lot of its hold over the Shiite electorate, and is finishing second across most of southern Iraq. As reported before, this year’s balloting would solidify the new balance of power amongst Iraq’s major parties that emerged in 2009.

SOURCES

Carlstrom, Gregg, “Latest Iraq Election Results: Erbil, Diyala, Saleheddin Provinces,” The Majlis, 3/12/10

Independent High Electoral Commission, “Results”

Inside Iraq, “Iraqi organization project elections results,” McClatchy Newspapers, 3/10/10

3 comments:

Don Cox said...

It is good to see that votes are really being counted in Iraq. In Iran, the "results" are announced a couple of hours after polls close.

Jason said...

I was hoping INA would do worse, but reducing them from 1st to 3rd will still be a definite improvement.

I know its early and highly speculative, but I have seen one report that Jaafari had mentioned quitting the INA to go with Maliki. It would be a beautiful thing to see INA pulled apart and SIIC and Sadr left out in the cold.

I have also seen reports from virtually every group saying that there are "no red lines" about who they will negotiate with.

Joel Wing said...

I haven't read anything about Jaafari quitting the National Alliance. I he did it probably wouldn't matter because his party is a minor player. I don't think he would have to quit anyway if he wanted an alliance with Maliki, State of Law and the National Alliance were talking about joining back together after the election since late 09. Doesn't mean it'll work out but they'll try.

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