Too Early For Kurds To Claim Victory Over Kirkuk?

After Iraq’s March 7, 2010 parliamentary elections, the Kurdish Alliance made up of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) were claiming victory in Tamim, the home to the disputed city of Kirkuk. They said that early returns showed that they had gotten 50% of the vote, which would give them 7-8 of the 12 seats up for grab in the province. The Kurdish Alliance could use that strong showing to claim that they had a mandate to move forward with the annexation of the Kirkuk, something they have wanted to do since the 2003 overthrow of Saddam. In the negotiations for a new government, which is already including the Kurds, they would demand that Article 140 of the 2005 constitution be implemented. The article called for a return of those displaced from the province by the previous regime, a census, and then a referendum on the fate of the disputed territories by the end of 2007. Obviously that never happened, but the Kurdish Alliance would put forward a renewed effort on that front after the vote.

That may have to be put on hold once again however. Early returns show that former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s National Movement is now in first place in the vote in Tamim. That was predicted in an exit poll done by the Ayn al Iraq monitoring group that found 37% of those polled voted for the National Movement, and 34% supporting the Kurdish Alliance in the governorate. Even if the Kurds ended up winning the vote when the final count is made, their victory would likely be disputed. The local Arabs and Turkmen claim that the Kurdish parties have moved in thousands of Kurdish families that never lived there before to change the demographics of Tamim in their favor. The 2010 election law also allows an investigation of irregularities in the polling in the province with a majority vote in parliament. If that occurred a committee would have one year to look into the ballots.

The Kurdish parties may be as frustrated about Kirkuk after the 2010 vote as they were before. When they joined the Iraqi government in 2005 they were promised that Kirkuk would be dealt with. That never happened. Now they may not even win the vote in the province, which would complicate any demand they make to move forward with Article 140 if they joined the next government. Like many major issues in Iraq, Kirkuk may be caught up in an endless deadlock as a result.

SOURCES

AK News, “Kurdish politicians optimistic about Kirkuk issue,” 3/13/10

BBC, “PM Maliki extends Iraqi poll lead,” 3/14/10

Dagher, Sam, “Iraq Election May Leave Status of Kirkuk Uncertain,” New York Times, 3/12/10

Hilterman, Joost, “Kurds no closer to taking Kirkuk after Iraqi elections,” Middle East Channel, Foreign Policy, 3/8/10

Inside Iraq, “Iraqi organization project elections results,” McClatchy Newspapers, 3/10/10