Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Who’s Ahead In Iraq’s Election?

With around 80% of Iraq’s votes counted Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law list is in a dead heat with former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi’s Iraqi National Movement. A report by Alsumaria TV said that State of Law and the National Movement were tied with 87 seats apiece. The Iraqi National Alliance was third with 67 seats, and the Kurdish Alliance was fourth with 38 seats. Reidar Visser at Iraq and Gulf Analysis has Allawi ahead with 90 seats, followed by Maliki with 88 seats, the National Alliance with 67, and the Kurdish Alliance with 39. A third count by the Institute for the Study of War has Maliki with up to 82 seats, Allawi with up to 74, the National Alliance with up to 63, and the Kurdish Alliance with up to 36. A personal unofficial count has the State of Law with 90 seats, the National Movement with 90, the National Alliance with 66, and the Kurdish Alliance with 39.

A party needs to receive around 30,000 votes to get one seat in parliament. Lists that don’t reach that threshold have their votes distributed amongst the winners. That meant that in Diyala, while 22 lists competed, only eleven got votes, and of those, four will get a place in the legislature.

After many delays, the Iraqi Election Commission seems to be increasing their tabulations and the amount of information that they are releasing. By the end of the week they could have their work almost complete, and give more definitive statistics on how many seats each winning list will receive. After that the new legislature has to elect a speaker and two deputies, and then a president. The Kurdish Alliance has nominated current President Jalal Talabani to the post, while Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi told Al Jazeera a day after the election that an Arab should have the spot. The presidency is an important symbolic position for the Kurds, showing that they still have a prominent role in Baghdad with the central government. As part of the post-election positioning Maliki has been playing up Hashemi’s statements to win favor with the Kurds. They, along with the Iraqi National Alliance, are currently the kingmakers in Iraq. Whichever candidate they support, either Maliki or Allawi, will likely become the next prime minister.

Major Lists In 2010 Election
State of Law: Prime Minister Maliki’s Dawa, Independents, Dawa - Iraq
Iraqi National Movement: Ex-Prime Minister Allawi’s Iraqi National List, Iraqi National Dialogue Front
Iraqi National Alliance: Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, Badr Organization, Sadrists, Fadhila, Ex-Prime Minister Jaafari’s Renewal Party, Iraqi National Congress, Anbar Rescue Council
Kurdish Alliance: Kurdistan Democratic Party, Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
Unity Of Iraq: Interior Minister Bolani’s Constitution Party, Iraq Awakening Conference
Change List: Kurdish opposition party led by co-founder of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
Kurdish Islamic Union: Islamist Kurdish opposition party
Kurdish Islamic Group: Islamist Kurdish opposition party
Liberal Individuals: Independents Parliamentarian Mithal al-Alusi, Sayed Ayad Jamal al-Din
Rafidain: Assyrian Christian Party
National Union Alliance: Tribal based party

Projected Seat Distributions In Parliament

Alsumaria TV Seat Count
State of Law 87 Seats
Iraqi National Movement 87 Seats
Iraqi National Alliance 67 Seats
Kurdish Alliance 38 Seats

Reidar Visser Count
Iraqi National Movement 90 Seats
State of Law 88 Seats
Iraqi National Alliance 67 Seats
Kurdish Alliance 39 Seats
Change List 8 Seats
Accordance Front 4 Seats

Institute for the Study of War Count
State of Law 73-79 Seats
Iraqi National Movement 62-70 Seats
Iraqi National Alliance 56-61 Seats
Kurdish Alliance 33-35 Seats
Change List 9-10 Seats
Accordance Front 5-7 Seats
Unity of Iraq 5-6 Seats
Kurdistan Islamic Union 4 Seats
Unity of Iraq 3 Seats

Musings On Iraq Seat Distribution
State of Law: 90
Iraqi National Movement: 90
Iraqi National Alliance: 66
Kurdish Alliance: 39
Change List: 8
Accordance Front: 4
Kurdish Islamic Union: 4
Unity of Iraq: 3
Kurdish Islamic Group: 3

Early Election Returns

Anbar – 14 Seats
83% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 230,878
2. Accordance Front 42,882
3. Unity of Iraq 34,056
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. State of Law 5,141
5. Iraqi National Alliance 4,139

Babil – 16 Seats
80% counted
1. State of Law 175,753
2. Iraqi National Alliance 138,513
3. Iraqi National Movement 78,996
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. Unity of Iraq 12,892
5. Accordance Front 7,056
6. Kurdish Alliance 914

Baghdad – 68 Seats
78% counted
1. State of Law 663,311
2. Iraqi National Movement 594,053
3. Iraqi National Alliance 409,327
4. Accordance Front 37,986
Not Enough Votes For Seat
5. Unity of Iraq 22,818
6. Kurdish Alliance 15,062
7. Change List 1,256
8. Kurdish Islamic Union 710

Basra – 24 Seats
86% counted
1. State of Law 347,304
2. Iraqi National Alliance 191,925
3. Iraqi National Movement 58,495
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. Accordance Front 13,786
5. Unity of Iraq 7,777

Dhi Qar – 18 Seats
84%
1. Iraqi National Alliance 195,616
2. State of Law 184,607
3. Iraqi National Movement 33,390
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. Unity of Iraq 16,367
5. Kurdish Alliance 289

Diyala – 13 Seats
75% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 173,989
2. Iraqi National Alliance 61,220
3. State of Law 42,218
4. Kurdish Alliance 31,494
Not Enough Votes For Seat
5. Accordance Front 18,286
6. Change List 5,558
7. Unity of Iraq 4,761
8. Justice Association 2,080
9. People Union 1,557
10. National Front 1,537
11. Kurdish Islamic Union 1,516

Dohuk – 10 Seats
70% counted
1. Kurdish Alliance 213,941
2. Kurdish Islamic Union 39,987
Not Enough Votes For Seat
3. Change List 15,834
4. Independent Nasir Toufis Rashid Beg Berwary List 2,706
5. Rafidain 2,619
6. Kurdish Islamic Group 2,048
7. Liberal Individuals 176
8. Iraqi National Alliance 101

Irbil – 14 Seats
73% counted
1. Kurdish Alliance 298,805
2. Change List 73,780
3. Kurdish Islamic Group 45,234
4. Kurdish Islamic Union 37,113
Not Enough Votes For Seat
5. Turkmen Front 1,775
6. Independent Faisal Pasha 811
8. National Union Alliance 422
8. Iraqi National Alliance 313
9. Liberal Individuals 144

Karbala – 10 Seats
74% counted
1. State of Law 122,140
2. Iraqi National Alliance 56,062
Not Enough Votes For Seat
3. Iraqi National Movement 24,914
4. Unity of Iraq 7,637

Maysan – 10 Seats
76% counted
1. Iraqi National Alliance 95,408
2. State of Law 71,591
Not Enough Votes For Seat
3. Iraqi National Movement 10,942
4. Unity of Iraq 3,770

Muthanna – 7 Seats
86% counted
1. State of Law 76,168
2. Iraqi National Alliance 58,269
Not Enough Votes For Seat
3. Unity of Iraq 17,862
4. Iraqi National Movement 14,615
5. Kurdish Alliance 1,145
6. Accordance Front 548

Najaf – 12 Seats
79% counted
1. State of Law 128,978
2. Iraqi National Alliance 113,400
Not Enough Votes For Seat
3. Iraqi National Movement 21,463
4. Unity of Iraq 5,687
5. Kurdish Alliance 401

Ninewa – 31 Seats
80% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 462,784
2. Kurdish Alliance 158,108
3. Accordance Front 47,994
4. Unity of Iraq 39,869
Not Enough Votes For Seat
5. Iraqi National Alliance 28,340
6. State of Law 12,921
7. National Union Alliance 7,558
8. Change List 6,964
9. National Unified Front 5,668
10. Kurdish Islamic Union 3,220
11. People’s Union 2,086
12. Iraqi National Association 1,610
13. Iraqi Freedom Movement 951
14. National Inventors and Experts 935
15. Kurdish Islamic Group 929

Qadisiyah – 11 Seats
85% counted
1. Iraqi National Alliance 107,739
2. State of Law 103,392
3. Iraqi National Movement 42,341
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. Unity of Iraq 10,092
5. Kurdish Alliance 672

Salahaddin – 12 Seats
74% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 165,843
2. Accordance Front 42,841
3. Unity of Iraq 38,322
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. State of Law 24,615
5. Iraqi National Alliance 16,845
6. Kurdish Alliance 14,880
7. Change List 1,692

Sulaymaniya – 17 Seats
80% counted
1. Kurdish Alliance 248,023
2. Change List 220,141
3. Kurdish Islamic Union 79,557
4. Kurdish Islamic Group 61,774
Not Enough Votes For Seat
5. Turkmen Front 518
6. National Union Alliance 552
7. National Welfare Movement 500
8. Iraqi National Alliance 150
9. Liberal Individuals 89

Tamim – 12 Seats
75% counted
1. Iraqi National Movement 147,683
2. Kurdish Alliance 147,667
Not Enough Votes For Seat
3. Change List 24,436
4. Kurdish Islamic Union 18,441
5. Accordance Front 12,671
6. Iraqi National Alliance 9,917
7. State of Law 9,485
8. Kurdish Islamic Group 5,347
9. Arabic National Front 2,853

Wasit – 11 Seats
89% counted
1. State of Law 126,373
2. Iraqi National Alliance 110,652
3. Iraqi National Movement 42,595
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. Unity of Iraq 15,850
5. Liberal Individuals 2,330
6. Kurdish Alliance 743

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “IHEC: 80% of votes show Allawi in the lead,” 3/17/10
- “Iraq first results: Maliki in pole position,” 3/16/10

Alsumaria News, “Maliki wins one million and 757 thousand of the votes of Iraqis, with a 20 thousand difference for the rival Allawi,” 3/16/10

AK News, “Update: New preliminary results of Iraq Vote,” 3/17/10

Hanna, Michael, “The Race for the Iraqi Presidency,” Foreign Policy, 3/11/10

Institute for the Study of War, “Fact Sheet: Iraq’s Preliminary Elections results,” 3/16/10

The Majlis, “Results: Iraq’s 2010 parliamentary election,” 3/17/10

Sowell, Kirk, “Iraq Elections: Maliki’s Path to Re-Election,” World Politics Review, 3/16/10

Visser, Reidar, “Baghdad Projects Based on a 60 Percent Count,” Iraq and Gulf Analysis, 3/16/10
- “Predictions Based on Partial Results: Allawi Emerges as a Possible Front-Runner,” Iraq and Gulf Analysis, 3/16/10

Wall Street Journal, “The Election in Iraq,” 3/17/10

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

Is this a typo? The odds of both SoL and INA having the same vote count seems pretty slim.

Dhi Qar – 18 Seats
84%
1. Iraqi National Alliance 184,607
2. State of Law 184,607
3. Iraqi National Movement 33,390
Not Enough Votes For Seat
4. Unity of Iraq 16,367
5. Kurdish Alliance 289

Joel Wing said...

Yeh, typo and now fixed. That's what you get when you're desperately trying to revise an article in the morning before taking the kid to school and going to work.

Jason said...

Those threshholds are brutal. Who would those Unity of Iraq voters have supported if Bolani had not run on his own?

Jason said...

If SIIC had not partnered with Sadr, it would not have broken a single threshold.

Joel Wing said...

Bolani ran on many of the same issues as Maliki, so some of the Unity voters would've gone to State of Law. Others would've probably voted for Allawi.

Development And Setbacks Of The Current Iraqi Military, Interview with CSU San Marco’s Prof Marashi

(AFP/Getty Images) The Iraqi military has gone through several stages since the 2003 U.S. invasion. There was its disbandment by the Co...