While several small oil fields have fallen under the control
of the Islamic State in northern Iraq the vast majority of the country’s
reserves reside in the south and have been unaffected. In fact, new
infrastructure recently opened that expanded the capacity for southern exports.
That doesn’t mean output can’t continue to fluctuate like it always has. In
June 2014 exports were down from May due to technical issues and an accident.
Problems with docking tankers were the main reason why June
exports decreased. Last month Iraq exported 2.423
million barrels a day compared to 2.582 million barrels in May. All of this
output went through the southern Basra pipeline. There were troubles with
docking tankers at the Basra and Khor Amaya oil terminals along with a tanker
hitting a mooring point that temporarily took it off line. This was the third
lowest output of the year after March’s 2.396 million and January’s 2.228.
Iraq Oil Exports And Profits 2011-2013
|
Month
|
Avg.
Exports
(Mil/
Bar/
Day)
|
Avg. Price Per Barrel
|
Revenue (Bill)
|
|
Jan. 11
|
2.16
|
$90.78
|
$6.082
|
|
Feb.
|
2.20
|
$98.44
|
$6.064
|
|
Mar.
|
2.15
|
$107.13
|
$7.167
|
|
Apr.
|
2.14
|
$114.26
|
$7.342
|
|
May
|
2.22
|
$108
|
$7.47
|
|
Jun.
|
2.27
|
$105.17
|
$7.173
|
|
Jul.
|
2.16
|
$108.79
|
$7.311
|
|
Aug.
|
2.18
|
$104.91
|
$7.124
|
|
Sep.
|
2.10
|
$104.89
|
$6.619
|
|
Oct.
|
2.08
|
$104.04
|
$6.742
|
|
Nov.
|
2.13
|
$106.59
|
$6.833
|
|
Dec.
|
2.14
|
$106.18
|
$7.061
|
|
2011 Avg.
|
2.16
|
$105.00
|
$6.913
|
|
Jan. 12
|
2.10
|
$109.08
|
$7.123
|
|
Feb.
|
2.01
|
$112.92
|
$6.595
|
|
Mar.
|
2.31
|
$117.99
|
$8.472
|
|
Apr.
|
2.50
|
$116.79
|
$8.795
|
|
May
|
2.45
|
$103.03
|
$8
|
|
Jun.
|
2.40
|
$90.09
|
$6.453
|
|
Jul.
|
2.51
|
$97.14
|
$7.577
|
|
Aug.
|
2.56
|
$106.22
|
$8.445
|
|
Sep.
|
2.59
|
$107.59
|
$8.371
|
|
Oct.
|
2.62
|
$105.51
|
$8.578
|
|
Nov.
|
2.62
|
$104.32
|
$8.200
|
|
Dec.
|
2.34
|
$103.72
|
$7.551
|
|
2012
Avg.
|
2.41
|
$106.20
|
$7.846
|
|
Jan. 13
|
2.35
|
$104.92
|
$7.672
|
|
Feb.
|
2.53
|
$107.66
|
$7.644
|
|
Mar.
|
2.41
|
$103.76
|
$7.772
|
|
Apr.
|
2.62
|
$98.70
|
$7.764
|
|
May
|
2.48
|
$97.23
|
$7.477
|
|
Jun.
|
2.32
|
$97.40
|
$6.799
|
|
Jul.
|
2.32
|
$101.00
|
$7.272
|
|
Aug.
|
2.57
|
$104.45
|
$8.356
|
|
Sep.
|
2.07
|
$104.87
|
$6.511
|
|
Oct.
|
2.25
|
$102.57
|
$7.160
|
|
Nov.
|
2.381
|
$102.57
|
$7.324
|
|
Dec.
|
2.341
|
$102.89
|
$7.470
|
|
2013 Avg.
|
2.386
|
$102.33
|
$7.435
|
|
Jan. 14
|
2.228
|
$102.37
|
$6.454
|
|
Feb
|
2.799
|
$102.05
|
$7.159
|
|
Mar
|
2.396
|
$101.03
|
$7.429
|
|
Apr
|
2.509
|
$100.69
|
$7.582
|
|
May
|
2.582
|
$100.69
|
$8.077
|
|
June
|
2.423
|
$102.61
|
$7.47
|
Oil
Exports Through Basra 2012-2013
January 2012 1.711 mil/bar/day
January 2012 1.711 mil/bar/day
February
1.639 mil/bar/day
March 1.917
mil/bar/day
April 2.115
mil/bar/day
May 2.086
mil/bar/day
June 2.085
mil/bar/day
July 2.216
mil/bar/day
August
2.252 mil/bar/day
September
2.178 mil/bar/day
October
2.172 mil/bar/day
November
2.122 mil/bar/day
December
2.022 mil/bar/day
2012 Avg. 2.042 mil/bar/day
January
2013 2.093 mil/bar/day
February
2.196 mil/bar/day
March 2.1
mil/bar/day
April 2.31
mil/bar/day
May 2.19
mil/bar/day
June 2.13
mil/bar/day
July 2.32
mil/bar/day
August 2.30
mil/bar/day
September
1.90 mil/bar/day
October
2.06 mil/bar/day
November
2.281 mil/bar/day
December
2.081 mil/bar/day
2013 Avg. 2.16 mil/bar/day
January
2014 2.036 mil/bar/day
February
2.507 mil/bar/day
March 2.370
mil/bar/day
April 2.509
mil/bar/day
May 2.582
mil/bar/day
June 2.423
mil/bar/day
Oil Exports Through Kirkuk 2012-2013
January 2012
393,500 bar/day
February
375,800 bar/day
March
400,000 bar/day
April
393,300 bar/day
May 364,500
bar/day
June
316,600 bar/day
July
300,000 bar/day
August
312,900 bar/day
September
420,000 bar/day
October
451,600 bar/day
November
426,600 bar/day
December
325,800 bar/day
2012 Avg. 373,300 bar/day
January
2013 264,500 bar/day
February
339,200 bar/day
March
316,100 bar/day
April
306,600 bar/day
May 283,800
bar/day
June
193,300 bar/day
July
180,600 bar/day
August
270,900 bar/day
September
250,000 bar/day
October
193,000 bar/day
November
309,00 bar/day
December
260,000 bar/day
2013 Avg. 264,200 bar/day
January
2014 192,000 bar/day
February
292,000 bar/day
March
25,806 bar/day
April 0
bar/day
May 0
bar/day
June 0 bar/day
At the same time capacity at the southern ports just
expanded. At the beginning of June a third single mooring point
opened. That went along with a new metering
platform that started working in May. The mooring points can’t
all operate at the same time right now, but it does mean that there can be
uninterrupted loading of tankers while repair and other work is being done,
which has cut exports in the past. A fourth platform is scheduled to come on
line by the end of the year. With the current added capacity Oil Minister Abdul
Karim Luaibi announced in mid-July that production was around 3.15
million barrels and exports were over 2.6 million. The opening of the new
mooring points come just as Rumaila, West Qurna 1 and 2, Zubayr, Halfaya, and
Badra fields are expected to increase their output. This added production and
capacity would help make up for the loss of the Kirkuk pipeline, which was
knocked out of commission in March by an insurgent attack, and now mostly lies
in militant hands.
Ironically the summer insurgent offensive has raised oil
prices. In June Iraqi crude sold for $102.61
per barrel, up from $100 per barrel in April and May. June was the highest
price since December 2013’s $102.89. Iraq earned $7.47 billion in June as a
result. That was down from May’s $8.077 billion however, because oil exports
dropped. The continued fighting in Iraq and other unrest in the Middle East
will likely keep crude prices up.
The Oil Ministry is hoping that its exports will rebound in
July. Early figures show that’s already happening. That doesn’t mean technical
problems wont continue to occur in the future leading exports to fluctuate
again. It can only be hoped that overall exports grow over the long run and oil
prices stay at $100 per barrel or more since Baghdad needs as much money as it
can get right now to pay for its on going security and refugee crisis.
SOURCES
Iraq, Ali Abu, Lando, Ben, “Besieged Iraqi oil sector buoyed
by southern expansion,” Iraq Oil Report, 7/20/14
Lando, Ben, “Iraq oil exports drop in June,” Iraq Oil
Report, 7/9/14
- “New Gulf infrastructure opens up export growth,” Iraq Oil
Report, 6/4/14
Lando, Ben, Al-Najaf, Kamaran, “Iraqi exports rebound
despite loss of northern pipeline,” Iraq Oil Report, 5/4/14
New Sabah, “”Oil” launches a new floating platform capacity
of 800 thousand barrels per day,” 6/2/14
Republic of Iraq Ministry of Oil, “Iraq Crude Oil Exports –
June 2014,” 7/24/14
Salaheddin, Sinan, “Iraq says crude oil exports rise
slightly in May,” Associated Press, 6/1/14
Ynewsiq, “Decline in oil exports to 2.423 million barrels
per day,” 7/3/14
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