Casualties Continue To Drop In Iraq 4th Week of March 2015

Casualties continued their downward trend in Iraq during the 4^th week of March 2015. The number of dead and wounded has gone down each week of the month. That was despite a slight increase in attacks. On the battlefront fighting remained stalemated in Anbar. Diyala saw a large jump in violence, some of which might have been by the Hashd al-Shaabi forces. The Kurds continued their push south into Kirkuk, and the Iranian-Hashd plan for Tikrit failed as Baghdad asked for Coalition air strikes. The government forces have regained the initiative in the war, but the fighting shows how hard it will be to clear the insurgents out of their strongholds.

During the 4^th week of March there were 170 reported attacks. That was up from 141 the week before. So far there have been a total of 616 incidents, which means that March will likely end up with roughly the same number as February when there were 655. Since there were fewer days in March however, that means the average number of attacks per day will likely be lower. So far there has been 22.0 attacks per day for March, down from 23.3 in February.

As usual, almost all of the violence was concentrated in the middle of the country. Baghdad led the way with 58 attacks. Then there were 34 in Anbar, 29 in Diyala, 24 in Ninewa, 16 in Salahaddin, 6 in Babil, two in Kirkuk, and one in Basra.

Casualties have been decreasing each week of March. The first week there were 372 deaths, followed by 348 the second, 299 the third, and 235 the fourth. The number of wounded did not follow such a straight line going from 587 the first week to 656 the next, before dropping to 503 the third and 406 the fourth. Like attacks, casualties have been declining as well. There have been 1,254 fatalities so far leading to an average of 44.7 per day, and 2,152 injured or 76.8 per day. In February there were 61.7 killed and 95.8 wounded. At the same time the real numbers are always higher than what gets reported in the press. There have been some very high figures mentioned for the fighting in Tikrit for example.

The 235 dead broke down to 1 peshmerga, 1 sahwa, 7 Hashd, 22 Iraqi Security Forces, and 204 civilians. The 406 wounded were made up of 1 peshmerga, 3 sahwa, 51 ISF, and 320 civilians.

By province Baghdad led the way again with 86 fatalities. There were 50 dead in Anbar, 39 in Salahaddin, 32 in Diyala, 19 in Ninewa, 4 each in Babil and Kirkuk, and one in Basra.

Violence In Iraq By Week Jun. 2014-2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jun 1-7	228	612	1,020
Jun 8-14	234	1,889	890
Jun 15-21	177	804	755
Jun 22-28	207	740	800
Jun 29-30	59	127	236
JUN	905	4,172	3,701
Jul 1-7	203	526	651
Jul 8-14	214	577	628
Jul 15-21	230	444	1,009
Jul 22-28	224	589	801
Jul 29-31	66	163	230
JUL	937	2,299	3,319
Aug 1-8	270	1,122	885
Aug 9-14	180	710	1,152
Aug 15-21	150	731	499
Aug 22-28	156	523	798
Aug 29-31	59	125	289
AUG	815	3,211	3,623
Sep 1-7	169	616	751
Sep 8-14	168	467	731
Sep 15-21	170	625	794
Sep 22-28	157	396	576
Sep 29-30	49	126	287
SEP	713	2,230	3,139
Oct 1-7	175	456	687
Oct 8-14	189	560	880
Oct 15-21	159	499	780
Oct 22-28	160	346	596 + 1,230
Oct 29-31	72	574	227
OCT	755	2,434	3,170 + 1,230
Nov 1-7	154	611	828
Nov 8-14	134	470	607
Nov 15-21	139	323	479
Nov 22-28	139	321	640
Nov 29-30	40	206	535
NOV	606	1,931	3,089
Dec 1-7	148	581	482
Dec 8-14	156	233 + 166	444 + 1,113
Dec 15-21	133	377	340
Dec 22-28	161	558	494
Dec 29-31	91	117	233
DEC	689	2,032	3,106
Jan 1-7	184	434	464
Jan 8-14	170	730	493
Jan 15-21	182	390	515
Jan 22-28	189	466	894
Jan 29-31	90	288	529
JAN	815	2,308	2,895
Feb 1-7	155	380	688
Feb 8-14	170	406	559
Feb 15-21	165	573	364
Feb 22-28	165	371	687 + 386
FEB	655	1,730	2,683
Mar 1-7	172	372	587
Mar 8-14	133	348	656
Mar 15-21	141	299	503
Mar 22-28	170	235	406

Violence By Province In Iraq March 2015

Province	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14
Anbar	24 Incidents 71 Killed: 22 ISF, 31 Sahwa, 18 Civilians 77 Wounded: 31 ISF, 46 Civilians 14 Shootings 1 IED 1 Suicide Car Bomb 3 Mortars 1 Rocket	23 Incidents 58 Killed: 34 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 23 Civilians 147 Wounded: 26 ISF, 8 Sahwa, 113 Civilians 7 Shootings 1 IED 24 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Rocket 3 Mortars
Babil	5 Incidents 8 Killed: 1 Hashd, 7 Civilians 13 Wounded: 2 Hashd, 11 Civilians 1 Shooting 3 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb	4 Incidents 8 Killed: 1 ISF, 7 Civilians 33 Wounded: 4 ISF, 29 Civilians 4 IEDs 1 Car Bomb
Baghdad	56 Incidents 75 Killed: 7 ISF, 4 Hashd, 5 Sahwa, 59 Civilians 229 Wounded: 16 ISF, 13 Sahwa, 16 Hashd, 184 Civilians 15 Shootings 30 IEDs 6 Sticky Bombs 1 Car Bomb 3 Mortars 2 Rockets	47 Incidents 88 Killed: 5 ISF, 83 Civilians 245 Wounded: 10 ISF, 1 US Soldier, 234 Civilians 15 Shootings 25 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs 2 Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Basra	5 Incidents 4 Killed: 4 Civilians 3 Shootings 1 Sticky Bomb	-
Diyala	13 Incidents 17 Killed: 3 Hashd, 14 Civilians 23 Wounded: 3 ISF, 4 Hashd, 16 Civilians 6 Shootings 3 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 1 Car Bomb	2 Incidents 3 Killed: 2 ISF, 1 Civilian 3 Wounded: 3 ISF 1 Shooting 1 IED
Kirkuk	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 ISF 1 Shooting	12 Incidents 103 Killed: 1 ISF, 23 Hashd, 26 Peshmerga, 53 Civilians 105 Wounded: 10 ISF, 5 Hashd, 87 Peshmerga, 3 Civilians 8 Shootings 1 IED 1 Suicide Bomber 4 Car Bombs 1 Mine
Ninewa	31 Incidents 120 Killed: 2 ISF, 118 Civilians 12 Wounded: 12 Civilians 17 Shootings 11 IEDs	20 Incidents 18 Killed: 1 ISF, 17 Civilians 10 Wounded: 1 Peshmerga, 9 Civilians 12 Shootings 5 IEDs
Salahaddin	37 Incidents 76 Killed: 24 ISF, 28 Hashd, 24 Civilians 233 Wounded: 54 ISF, 122 Hashd, 57 Civilians 18 Shootings 14 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 6 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 3 Mortars	25 Incidents 70 Killed: 61 ISF, 3 Hashd, 6 Civilians 113 Wounded: 98 ISF, 6 Hashd, 9 Civilians 9 Shootings 12 IEDs 3 Suicide Bombers 3 Suicide Car Bombs

Province	Mar 15-21	Mar 22-28
Anbar	20 Incidents 50 Killed: 5 ISF, 45 Civilians 80 Wounded: 8 ISF, 72 Civilians 9 Shootings 2 Suicide Bombers 3 Suicide Car Bombs 4 Mortars 2 Rockets	34 Incidents 50 Killed: 6 ISF, 44 Civilians 74 Wounded: 14 ISF, 60 Civilians 21 Shootings 3 Suicide Bombers 7 Suicide Car Bombs 5 Mortars 1 Rockets
Babil	5 Incidents 4 Killed: 2 ISF, 2 Civilians 10 Wounded: 6 ISF, 2 Hashd, 2 Civilians 3 Shootings 1 IED 1 Sticky Bomb	6 Incidents 4 Killed: 4 Civilians 17 Wounded: 3 ISF, 2 Hashd, 12 Civilians 1 Shooting 4 IEDs 1 Sound Bomb
Baghdad	51 Incidents 74 Killed: 6 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 1 Hashd, 66 Civilians 254 Wounded: 21 ISF, 5 Sahwa, 228 Civilians 13 Shootings 34 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs	58 Incidents 86 Killed: 4 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 1 Hashd, 80 Civilians 241 Wounded: 17 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 221 Civilians 15 Shootings 27 IEDs 6 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Bomber 3 Car Bombs 1 Mortar 3 Rockets
Basra	1 Incident 12 Killed: 12 Civilians 30 Wounded: 30 Civilians 1 Truck Bomb	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting
Diyala	7 Incidents 5 Killed: 5 Civilians 4 Shootings 3 IEDs	29 Incidents 32 Killed: 1 ISF, 31 Civilians 7 Wounded: 4 ISF, 3 Civilians 14 Shootings 11 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb
Irbil	1 Incident 1 Rocket	-
Kirkuk	8 Incidents 24 Killed: 20 Peshmerga, 1 Hashd, 3 Civilians 59 Wounded: 50 Peshmerga, 8 Hashd, 1 Civilian 6 Shootings 2 IEDs	2 Incidents 4 Killed: 4 Civilians 2 Shootings
Maysan	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 ISF 1 Shooting	-
Ninewa	19 Incidents 37 Killed: 12 Peshmerga, 25 Civilians 9 Shootings 4 IEDs	24 Incidents 19 Killed: 7 ISF, 12 Civilians 14 Shootings 19 IEDs 1 Mortar 1 Rockets
Salahaddin	28 Incidents 92 Killed: 48 ISF, 6 Hashd, 38 Civilians 70 Wounded: 23 ISF, 26 Hashd, 21 Civilians 15 Shootings 6 IEDs 3 Suicide Bombers 2 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Mortar 1 Rocket	16 Incidents 39 Killed: 4 ISF, 1 Peshmerga, 6 Hashd, 28 Civilians 67 Wounded: 13 ISF, 1 Peshmerga, 29 Hashd, 24 Civilians 9 Shootings 7 IEDs

Car Bombs In Iraq March 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Mar 1
Mar 2	East of Samarra, Salahaddin	4
Mar 3	South of Tikrit, Salahaddin	4	12
Mar 4
Mar 5	Abu Dishir, Baghdad Alam & Tal Ksaiba x3, Salahaddin	7	37
Mar 6
Mar 7	Bastan, Anbar Bani Saad, Diyala Tuz Kharmato, Salahaddin	13	47
Total	10	28	96
Mar 8	Zoba, Anbar Mahmudiya, Babil Jamila, Baghdad	10	32
Mar 9	Mullah Ali x3, Kirkuk	5	30
Mar 10	Mullah Abdullah, Kirkuk Baiji, Salahaddin	2	16
Mar 11	Ramadi x17, Anbar Hurriya, Baghdad Diom, Salahaddin	29	79
Mar 12	Saqlawiya, Anbar	3	5
Mar 13	Diom, Salahaddin	6	11
Mar 14	Ramadi x5, Anbar	11	14
Total	34	66	187
Mar 15	Ramadi, Anbar	5	7
Mar 16
Mar 17	Ramadi, Anbar
Mar 18	Um Qasr, Basra	12	30
Mar 19
Mar 20	Huiysh, Salahaddin		6
Mar 21	Ramadi, Anbar Thar Thar, Salahaddin	2	8
Total	6	19	51
Mar 22
Mar 23	Husseiniya, Madain, Sadr City, Baghdad	12	31
Mar 24	Garma, Japanese Bridge, Khalidiya, Anbar x7	1	14
Mar 25
Mar 26
Mar 27
Mar 28
Total	10	13	45

After a huge surge in Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices (VBIEDs) the second week of March the number has evened out. There were ten the first week, six the third week, and ten the fourth. From March 22-28 all the car bombs occurred on just two days the 23 and 24. On the former there were three in Baghdad hitting Husseiniya, Madain, and Sadr City, and seven the next day in Garma, the Japanese Bridge, and Khalidiya all in Anbar.

Anbar remains the only province where the Islamic State continues to mass its forces and carry out major attacks. During the fourth week of March there was fighting throughout central and southern Ramadi as there has been for over a year now. Howaz was the main district under dispute, but the downtown area has also seen heavy fighting. The government forces have been focused upon re-taking Garma since March 5. Since then the center of the town has been surrounded but no move has been made to take it for several days now. Like Tikrit, it appears that either the ISF and tribes lack the manpower to take the downtown or will maintain or cordon and wait for the insurgents to be degraded over time. The struggle there and in Ramadi show the back and forth nature of the conflict in Anbar. Many of these areas have changed hands several times in the fifteen months since open fighting began there, and will continue to do so until the central government commits more forces there.

Diyala saw a large jump in incidents from 7 from March 15-21 to 29 from March 22-28. Most of these attacks occurred in the center of the province from Baquba to Muqtadiya. The town of Zagnah saw violence four out of the seven days. While the insurgents were responsible for the vast majority of the casualties, Iraq Oil Report found that Hashd al-Shaabi groups might have been carrying out attacks as well. For instance, Hashd forces were blamed for blowing up a house and executing four people on March 25, and then blowing up two houses in Jazeera on March 27. The Hashd claimed that the Islamic State did some of these attacks, some were done by rogue elements, and some were against supporters of the insurgents. Since Badr Organization head Hadi Ameri is in charge of security in the province, nothing will likely be done about these claims.

The Kurds continued their offensive in southern Kirkuk during the week. Twelve villages were cleared as a result. The ultimate goal is to free Hawija, which is the IS stronghold in the province. Otherwise there has been hardly any violence in the province throughout the month with only two reported incidents during the week.

In Ninewa IS continued it rule by fear, while carrying out harassing attacks upon the peshmerga. During the week 19 people were executed in Mosul, Qayara and Shura including five soldiers, two police and a reporter. IS also attacked Kurdish positions in Sinjar three times, Khazar twice, and then smaller towns in the Makhmour area as well. Otherwise the battlefield has not much changed in the governorate in the last few months.

The big news in Iraq during the week was that the stall in the Tikrit operation led the government of Haider Abadi to request U.S. air strikes. The Hashd and Iran planned the taking of Tikrit as a sign that they could take a major Iraqi city without American assistance. While there was steady progress initially, when the center of the city was reached, the advance halted for several days due to the defenses arrayed by the insurgents and mounting casualties. The ISF are now in the lead, which was part of the agreement to begin Coalition missions, while several Hashd forces said they would no longer participate as long as the Americans were involved. They does not mean they have withdrawn, but rather they are holding their positions around the city. Taking Tikrit may take many more days, but it is only a matter of time since there is only a small force of IS fighters defending it.

SOURCES

Al-Atbi, Adam and Van Heuvelen, Ben, “Militias oversee spiking violence in Diyala,” Iraq Oil Report, 3/29/15

Bas News, "Peshmerga Frees 12 Villages in Southern Kirkuk," 3/22/15,

Iraq Times, "A third car bomb explosion in Madain south of Baghdad," 3/23/15

Radio Free Iraq, "24 March 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 2/24/15

Salama, Vivina, "Iraq Officials: Baghdad Bombings Kill 19; Wound 36," Associated Press, 3/23/15