Security In Iraq 3rd Week Of March, 2015

Reported violence was slightly down in the third week of March, 2015 in Iraq. Attacks were roughly the same as the previous week, while casualties dropped. The Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Kurdish peshmerga continued their offensives in eastern Anbar and southern Kirkuk respectively, but the major operation in Tikrit stalled and has been on hold as reinforcements were called up, and a debate appeared to be underway between all the involved groups on how to proceed.

There were 141 security incidents reported in the press. The real number is much higher. That was very close to the previous week when there were 133, and down from the first week of the month when there were 172. That averaged out to 21.2 reported attacks per day, down from 23.3 in February, and 26.2 in January.

For the week Baghdad had the most incidents with 51, followed by 28 in Salahaddin, 20 in Anbar, 19 in Ninewa, 8 in Kirkuk, 7 in Diyala, 5 in Babil, and one each in Basra, Irbil and Maysan. Irbil was a rare occasion, and was the result of the Islamic State firing rockets into the province on March 15, but luckily nothing was hit. Basra was also struck by a truck bomb on March 18 killing 12 and wounding 30. This was the first time southern Iraq was hit by any type of vehicle borne bomb since Najaf at the end of October 2014.

Those attacks led to 299 deaths and 503 wounded. Again, the actual statistics are higher than what gets in the press. The dead broke down to 1 Sahwa, 8 Hashd al-Shaabi, 32 Peshmerga, 62 ISF, and 196 civilians, while the injured were 5 Sahwa, 36 Hashd, 50 Peshmerga, 58 ISF, and 354 civilians. By province that broke down to 92 killed in Salahaddin, 74 in Baghdad, 50 in Anbar, 37 in Ninewa, 24 in Kirkuk, 12 in Basra, 5 in Diyala, 4 in Babil, and one in Maysan. The third week’s totals were down from the previous one’s 348 killed and 656 injured.

For the month there have been an average of 48.5 killed per day and 83.1 wounded. That was down from February’s 61.7 dead and 95.8 injured, and January’s 74.4 fatalities and 93.3 wounded. This continued the trend of casualties declining since the summer.

Violence In Iraq By Week Jun. 2014-2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jun 1-7	228	612	1,020
Jun 8-14	234	1,889	890
Jun 15-21	177	804	755
Jun 22-28	207	740	800
Jun 29-30	59	127	236
JUN	905	4,172	3,701
Jul 1-7	203	526	651
Jul 8-14	214	577	628
Jul 15-21	230	444	1,009
Jul 22-28	224	589	801
Jul 29-31	66	163	230
JUL	937	2,299	3,319
Aug 1-8	270	1,122	885
Aug 9-14	180	710	1,152
Aug 15-21	150	731	499
Aug 22-28	156	523	798
Aug 29-31	59	125	289
AUG	815	3,211	3,623
Sep 1-7	169	616	751
Sep 8-14	168	467	731
Sep 15-21	170	625	794
Sep 22-28	157	396	576
Sep 29-30	49	126	287
SEP	713	2,230	3,139
Oct 1-7	175	456	687
Oct 8-14	189	560	880
Oct 15-21	159	499	780
Oct 22-28	160	346	596 + 1,230
Oct 29-31	72	574	227
OCT	755	2,434	3,170 + 1,230
Nov 1-7	154	611	828
Nov 8-14	134	470	607
Nov 15-21	139	323	479
Nov 22-28	139	321	640
Nov 29-30	40	206	535
NOV	606	1,931	3,089
Dec 1-7	148	581	482
Dec 8-14	156	233 + 166	444 + 1,113
Dec 15-21	133	377	340
Dec 22-28	161	558	494
Dec 29-31	91	117	233
DEC	689	2,032	3,106
Jan 1-7	184	434	464
Jan 8-14	170	730	493
Jan 15-21	182	390	515
Jan 22-28	189	466	894
Jan 29-31	90	288	529
JAN	815	2,308	2,895
Feb 1-7	155	380	688
Feb 8-14	170	406	559
Feb 15-21	165	573	364
Feb 22-28	165	371	687 + 386
FEB	655	1,730	2,683
Mar 1-7	172	372	587
Mar 8-14	133	348	656
Mar 15-21	141	299	503

Violence By Province In Iraq March 2015

Province	Mar 1-7	Mar 8-14
Anbar	24 Incidents 71 Killed: 22 ISF, 31 Sahwa, 18 Civilians 77 Wounded: 31 ISF, 46 Civilians 14 Shootings 1 IED 1 Suicide Car Bomb 3 Mortars 1 Rocket	23 Incidents 58 Killed: 34 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 23 Civilians 147 Wounded: 26 ISF, 8 Sahwa, 113 Civilians 7 Shootings 1 IED 24 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Rocket 3 Mortars
Babil	5 Incidents 8 Killed: 1 Hashd, 7 Civilians 13 Wounded: 2 Hashd, 11 Civilians 1 Shooting 3 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb	4 Incidents 8 Killed: 1 ISF, 7 Civilians 33 Wounded: 4 ISF, 29 Civilians 4 IEDs 1 Car Bomb
Baghdad	56 Incidents 75 Killed: 7 ISF, 4 Hashd, 5 Sahwa, 59 Civilians 229 Wounded: 16 ISF, 13 Sahwa, 16 Hashd, 184 Civilians 15 Shootings 30 IEDs 6 Sticky Bombs 1 Car Bomb 3 Mortars 2 Rockets	47 Incidents 88 Killed: 5 ISF, 83 Civilians 245 Wounded: 10 ISF, 1 US Soldier, 234 Civilians 15 Shootings 25 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs 2 Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Basra	5 Incidents 4 Killed: 4 Civilians 3 Shootings 1 Sticky Bomb	-
Diyala	13 Incidents 17 Killed: 3 Hashd, 14 Civilians 23 Wounded: 3 ISF, 4 Hashd, 16 Civilians 6 Shootings 3 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 1 Car Bomb	2 Incidents 3 Killed: 2 ISF, 1 Civilian 3 Wounded: 3 ISF 1 Shooting 1 IED
Kirkuk	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 ISF 1 Shooting	12 Incidents 103 Killed: 1 ISF, 23 Hashd, 26 Peshmerga, 53 Civilians 105 Wounded: 10 ISF, 5 Hashd, 87 Peshmerga, 3 Civilians 8 Shootings 1 IED 1 Suicide Bomber 4 Car Bombs 1 Mine
Ninewa	31 Incidents 120 Killed: 2 ISF, 118 Civilians 12 Wounded: 12 Civilians 17 Shootings 11 IEDs	20 Incidents 18 Killed: 1 ISF, 17 Civilians 10 Wounded: 1 Peshmerga, 9 Civilians 12 Shootings 5 IEDs
Salahaddin	37 Incidents 76 Killed: 24 ISF, 28 Hashd, 24 Civilians 233 Wounded: 54 ISF, 122 Hashd, 57 Civilians 18 Shootings 14 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 6 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 3 Mortars	25 Incidents 70 Killed: 61 ISF, 3 Hashd, 6 Civilians 113 Wounded: 98 ISF, 6 Hashd, 9 Civilians 9 Shootings 12 IEDs 3 Suicide Bombers 3 Suicide Car Bombs

Province	Mar 15-21
Anbar	20 Incidents 50 Killed: 5 ISF, 45 Civilians 80 Wounded: 8 ISF, 72 Civilians 9 Shootings 2 Suicide Bombers 3 Suicide Car Bombs 4 Mortars 2 Rockets
Babil	5 Incidents 4 Killed: 2 ISF, 2 Civilians 10 Wounded: 6 ISF, 2 Hashd, 2 Civilians 3 Shootings 1 IED 1 Sticky Bomb
Baghdad	51 Incidents 74 Killed: 6 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 1 Hashd, 66 Civilians 254 Wounded: 21 ISF, 5 Sahwa, 228 Civilians 13 Shootings 34 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs
Basra	1 Incident 12 Killed: 12 Civilians 30 Wounded: 30 Civilians 1 Truck Bomb
Diyala	7 Incidents 5 Killed: 5 Civilians 4 Shootings 3 IEDs
Irbil	1 Incident 1 Rocket
Kirkuk	8 Incidents 24 Killed: 20 Peshmerga, 1 Hashd, 3 Civilians 59 Wounded: 50 Peshmerga, 8 Hashd, 1 Civilian 6 Shootings 2 IEDs
Maysan	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 ISF 1 Shooting
Ninewa	19 Incidents 37 Killed: 12 Peshmerga, 25 Civilians 9 Shootings 4 IEDs
Salahaddin	28 Incidents 92 Killed: 48 ISF, 6 Hashd, 38 Civilians 70 Wounded: 23 ISF, 26 Hashd, 21 Civilians 15 Shootings 6 IEDs 3 Suicide Bombers 2 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Mortar 1 Rocket

Car Bombs In Iraq March 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Mar 1
Mar 2	East of Samarra, Salahaddin	4
Mar 3	South of Tikrit, Salahaddin	4	12
Mar 4
Mar 5	Abu Dishir, Baghdad Alam & Tal Ksaiba x3, Salahaddin	7	37
Mar 6
Mar 7	Bastan, Anbar Bani Saad, Diyala Tuz Kharmato, Salahaddin	13	47
Total	10	28	96
Mar 8	Zoba, Anbar Mahmudiya, Babil Jamila, Baghdad	10	32
Mar 9	Mullah Ali x3, Kirkuk	5	30
Mar 10	Mullah Abdullah, Kirkuk Baiji, Salahaddin	2	16
Mar 11	Ramadi x17, Anbar Hurriya, Baghdad Diom, Salahaddin	29	79
Mar 12	Saqlawiya, Anbar	3	5
Mar 13	Diom, Salahaddin	6	11
Mar 14	Ramadi x5, Anbar	11	14
Total	34	66	187
Mar 15	Ramadi, Anbar	5	7
Mar 16
Mar 17	Ramadi, Anbar
Mar 18	Um Qasr, Basra	12	30
Mar 19
Mar 20	Huiysh, Salahaddin		6
Mar 21	Ramadi, Anbar Thar Thar, Salahaddin	2	8
Total	6	19	51

After a yearly high of 34 vehicle borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) in the second week of March, there were just six the third week. Ramadi continued to be the main target with three detonating there from March 15-21. Just like previous weeks as well the security forces and Hashd were the favorite targets with five out of six aimed at them. There were far more VBIEDs that were launched by the Islamic State but were destroyed before reaching their target. The totals of 19 dead and 51 wounded from the 6 car bombs were also probably low as complete numbers for some of the attacks were not reported.

Just like the previous week both the government and Islamic State were carrying out major operations in Anbar. The Islamic State continued its heavy attacks in Ramadi. The government center and Howaz district were assaulted several times during the week. For example, March 15 Howaz was hit by a suicide car bomb on an army base, followed by an infantry assault, along with an attack on the northeast and mortar fire. The next day, the northwest was hit, then the Andalus and Dhobat sections were struck by 2 suicide bombers, a suicide car bomb, followed by an infantry attack on March 17. The government forces on the other hand, were focused upon carrying out the second phase of its clearing sweep through the Garma area. Several villages were cleared in the process. This operation was started in an attempt to end indirect fire on Baghdad’s western suburbs. Despite all the activity the overall situation in the province has been deadlocked for months. IS has made some small advances in Ramadi over the last few months, but many neighborhoods remain contested. The government forces remained undermanned as well, unable to hold territory that it clears.

Baghdad had almost the same number of casualties the third week of March as the second. There were 74 dead and 254 wounded from March 15-21 compared to 88 killed and 245 injured from March 8-14. Since the start of the month there has been 89 improvised explosive devices. These are the major threats to the province accounting for most of the casualties.

Starting last week the Kurdish peshmerga moved out of the disputed territories into southern Kirkuk in a supporting operation to the one in Tikrit, Salahaddin. The Kurds have made steady progress with a number of towns in the Daquq and Bashir area taken. The Hashd forces have also become involved in these maneuvers. The ultimate goal is to take Hawija, which remains the main insurgent stronghold in the governorate.

The major news however was in Salahaddin where the Tikrit operation was put on hold towards the end of the second week of March. The official reason was for civilians to exit the battle zone and for reinforcements to be called up. There were also plenty of reports about divisions between the Iranians, pro-Iranian Hashd groups, the ISF and Baghdad over strategy and tactics. One is over the role of the United States led Coalition. The Americans have not been involved because of the large role played by Iran, which was Tehran’s plan. The Iranians along with their allies amongst the Hashd wanted to show that they could defeat the insurgents without the Coalition. As casualties have mounted and IED fields and snipers have slowed the advance the ISF have been calling for Washington’s help. The head of the Samarra Operations Command for example, General Abdul Wahab al-Saadi was quoted in the press on March 15 saying that he asked the Defense Ministry to request Coalition air strikes. Badr Organization head Hadi Ameri in turn, criticized the army for asking for that help. Prime Minister Haider Abadi is said to support the military in this debate. Iran and the Hashd are also reportedly pushing for a head on assault of Tikrit, while Baghdad and the ISF are looking for an alternative that could reduce casualties. In the meantime Tikrit remains surrounded, and when these differences are resolved the city will fall. The geopolitics of the situation need to be resolved first.

SOURCES

Abdul-Zahra, Qassim and Yacoub, Sameer, “Iraqi commander slams US, hails Iran in fight against ISIS in Tikrit,” Assocaited Press, 3/14/15

AIN, "Urgent: 6 volunteers injured in suicide attack in Samara," 3/21/15

Beale, Jonathan, “Battle for Tikrit key to Iraq’s future,” BBC, 3/23/15

Dunlop, W.G., “Iraqi army says coalition raids needed in Tikrit battle,” Agence France Presse, 3/15/15

Al Forat, "Initial Count: Basra truck bombing kills, injures 43 civilians," 3/18/15

Iraq Times, "Salahuddin operations: the martyrdom and wounding of seven of the popular crowd in clashes with Daash," 3/21/15

Al Mada, “Abadi plans to unify the crowd under his leadership and efforts to engage the international coalition in the battle for Tikrit,” 3/21/15

Morris, Loveday, “Iraqi offensive for Tikrit stalls as casualties mount,” Washington Post, 3/16/15

NINA, "Breaking News..Military Operations To Liberate Karma Area Kicked Off," 3/15/15,

- "The death toll of victims of the indiscriminate shelling of Ramadi by the IS rose to 16 martyrs and wounded," 3/15/15

- "A number of areas liberated in Karma district of Anbar province," 3/21/15

- "Security forces repel an attack by Daash in central Ramadi," 3/17/15

- "A soldier wounded in center of Ramadi," 3/21/15

Prothero, Mitchell, “Operation to retake Tikrit from Islamic State stalled by heavy casualties, discord,” McClatchy Newspapers, 3/20/15

Radio Free Iraq, "15 March 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 3/15/15

- "16 March 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 3/16/15

Al Rayy, "Daash attack thwarted killing six of them in Ramadi," 3/15/15

Salih, Mohammed, “Iran gathers power in Iraq as US further sidelined,” Al Monitor, 3/17/15

Shafaq News, "ISIS bombarding the western borders of Erbil with Katyusha mortar," 3/15/15