Violence Down In Iraq In February 2015

There was a short spike in violence in December 2014 and January 2015, which ended in February. Both attacks and casualties went down last month to the lowest levels since May 2014 despite major operations by the Islamic State in Anbar, Ninewa and Salahaddin. This was part of a larger trend, which has seen security slowly improve across Iraq since the summer.

The press reported 655 security incidents in February 2015. That was lower than January’s 815 and December’s 689. For a short period it looked like the Islamic State was ramping up operations for another major push in the new year. They were still carrying out large scale attacks across the middle of the country in February, but they were not able to sustain the same pace as the previous months. Comparing provincial statistics from January to February showed that. Attacks in Anbar went from 161 to 122, Ninewa went from 128 to 89, and Salahaddin dropped from 128 to 89. Kirkuk had the most dramatic decline with 54 incidents in January compared to just 13 in February. The other governorates either had slight increases or saw roughly the same number of attacks between the two months. Overall, incidents have been on a steady decline since June.

February ended with 1,730 deaths and 2,298 wounded. The latter consisted of 217 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 41 sahwa, 38 peshmerga, and 1,434 civilians. The former was made up of 227 ISF, 19 peshmerga, 8 sahwa, and 2,043 civilians. Anbar had the most fatalities with 577. After that was Baghdad with 437, 317 in Salahaddin, 249 in Ninewa, 91 in Diyala, 33 in Babil, 22 in Kirkuk, and two each in Basra and Wasit. Those figures were down from January’s 2,308 dead and 2,895 injured. February’s numbers were the lowest since 1,462 people died and 2,602 were wounded in May 2012. Like security incidents casualties have been going down since the summer.

Violence In Iraq By Week Jun. 2014-2015

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
Jun 1-7	228	612	1,020
Jun 8-14	234	1,889	890
Jun 15-21	177	804	755
Jun 22-28	206	740	800
Jun 29-30	59	127	236
JUN	904	4,172	3,701
Jul 1-7	203	526	651
Jul 8-14	214	577	628
Jul 15-21	230	444	1,009
Jul 22-28	224	589	801
Jul 29-31	66	163	230
JUL	937	2,299	3,319
Aug 1-8	270	1,122	885
Aug 9-14	180	710	1,152
Aug 15-21	150	731	499
Aug 22-28	156	523	798
Aug 29-31	59	125	289
AUG	815	3,211	3,623
Sep 1-7	169	616	751
Sep 8-14	168	467	731
Sep 15-21	170	625	794
Sep 22-28	157	396	576
Sep 29-30	49	126	287
SEP	713	2,230	3,139
Oct 1-7	175	456	687
Oct 8-14	189	560	880
Oct 15-21	159	499	780
Oct 22-28	160	346	596 + 1,230
Oct 29-31	72	574	227
OCT	754	2,434	3,170 + 1,230
Nov 1-7	154	611	828
Nov 8-14	134	470	607
Nov 15-21	139	323	479
Nov 22-28	139	321	640
Nov 29-30	40	206	535
NOV	606	1,931	3,089
Dec 1-7	148	581	482
Dec 8-14	156	233 + 166	444 + 1,113
Dec 15-21	133	377	340
Dec 22-28	161	558	494
Dec 29-31	91	117	233
DEC	689	2,032	3,106
Jan 1-7	184	434	464
Jan 8-14	170	730	493
Jan 15-21	182	390	515
Jan 22-28	189	466	894
Jan 29-31	90	288	529
JAN	815	2,308	2,895
Feb 1-7	155	380	688
Feb 8-14	170	406	559
Feb 15-21	165	573	364
Feb 22-28	165	371	687 + 386
FEB	655	1,730	2,683

Violence By Province Jan vs. Feb 2015

Province	Jan	Feb
Anbar	161 Incidents 318 Killed: 57 ISF, 67 Sahwa, 194 Civilians 569 Wounded: 69 ISF, 44 Sahwa, 456 Civilians 106 Shootings 4 IEDs 2 Suicide 18 Suicide Car Bombs 14 Mortars 3 Rockets	122 Incidents 577 Killed: 70 ISF, 38 Sahwa, 469 Civilians 241 Wounded: 11 ISF, 8 Sahwa, 222 Civilians 72 Shootings 44 IEDs 8 Suicide Bombers 1 Suicide Motorcycle Bomb 3 Suicide Car Bomb 15 Mortars 3 Rockets 1 Artillery 1 Mine
Babil	29 Incidents 54 Killed: 11 ISF, 1 Sahwa, 42 Civilians 156 Wounded: 7 ISF, 149 Civilians 5 Shootings 15 IEDs 4 Sticky Bobs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Car Bomb	34 Incidents 33 Killed: 8 ISF, 25 Civilians 136 Wounded: 29 ISF, 107 Civilians 1 Shooting 18 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Car Bombs 1 Mine 1 Grenade
Baghdad	205 Incidents 357 Killed: 23 ISF, 6 Sahwa, 328 Civilians 980 Wounded: 45 ISF, 13 Sahwa, 922 Civilians 63 Shootings 118 IEDs 17 Sticky Bombs 1 Motorcycle Bomb 4 Suicide Bombs 2 Car Bombs 1 Grenade 10 Mortars	214 Incidents 437 Killed: 9 ISF, 2 Sahwa, 426 Civilians 1,069 Wounded: 28 ISF, 1,041 Civilians 73 Shootings 110 IEDs 16 Sticky Bombs 4 Suicide Bombers 6 Car Bombs 11 Mortars 4 Rockets
Basra	14 Incidents 10 Killed: 10 Civilians 5 Wounded: 5 Civilians 8 Shootings 2 IEDs	7 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 6 Wounded: 6 Civilians 3 Shootings 1 IED 1 Grenade
Diyala	53 Incidents 298 Killed: 25 ISF, 25 Peshmerga, 2 Sahwa, 246 Civilians 522 Wounded: 11 ISF, 7 Peshmerga, 1 Sahwa, 503 Civilians 34 Shootings 14 IEDs 1 Suicide Bombers 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Car Bomb 6 Mortars	51 Incidents 91 Killed: 10 ISF, 20 Peshmerga, 1 Sahwa, 60 Civilians 113 Wounded: 25 ISF, 2 Peshmerga, 86 Civilians 23 Shootings 15 IEDs 4 Sticky Bombs 2 Suicide Car Bombs 3 Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Irbil	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 6 Wounded: 6 Civilians 1 Mortar	-
Kirkuk	54 Incidents 38 Killed: 23 Peshmerga, 3 Asayesh, 1 Sahwa, 11 Civilians 186 Wounded: 175 Peshmerga, 8 Civilians 26 Shootings 17 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 4 Suicide Bombers 1 Car Bomb 3 Mortars	13 Incidents 22 Killed: 16 Peshmerga, 6 Civilians 12 Wounded: 5 Peshmerga, 7 Civilians 7 Shootings 22 IEDs 4 Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Maysan	4 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 2 Shootings 1 Stun Bomb	-
Ninewa	128 Incidents 691 Killed: 78 ISF, 34 Peshmerga, 26 Asayesh, 8 YPG, 545 Civilians 14 Wounded: 7 Peshmerga, 5 Asayesh, 2 YPG 92 Shootings 30 IEDs 3 Suicide Car Bombs 2 Car Bombs	89 Incidents 249 Killed: 13 ISF, 2 Peshmerga, 234 Civilians 65 Wounded: 12 Peshmerga, 53 Civilians 56 Shootings 94 IEDs 1 Suicide Bombers 1 Suicide Car Bomb 6 Car Bombs 1 Mortar
Qadisiyah	2 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting 1 Sticky Bomb	-
Salahaddin	164 Incidents 538 Killed: 132 ISF, 1 Peshmerga, 405 Civilians 456 Wounded: 178 ISF, 3 Peshmerga, 275 Civilians 73 Shootings 106 IEDs 5 Sticky Bombs 4 Suicide Bombs 14 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb 2 Grenades 8 Mortars	122 Incidents 317 Killed: 107 ISF, 210 Civilians 654 Wounded: 134 ISF, 520 Civilians 70 Shootings 138 IEDs 3 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Bombers 20 Suicide Car Bombs 4 Car Bombs 4 Mortars 1 Rocket
Sulaymaniya	-	1 Incident 2 Grenades
Wasit	-	2 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 Civilian 2 Shootings

Car Bombs In Iraq Feb. 2015

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Feb 1
Feb 2	Khabaz x4, Kirkuk Samarra, Salahaddin	21	26
Feb 3	Karrada x3, Baghdad	5	17
Feb 4	Haditha, Anbar		3
Feb 5	Ramadi, Anbar Jazeera, Salahaddin	13	13
Feb 6
Feb 7	Tigris Axis x7, Ninewa
Totals	18	39	59
Feb 8
Feb 9	Jabber x3 & Siniya, Salahaddin	20	35
Feb 10	Mahmudiya, Babil	4	11
Feb 11	Mahmudiya, Babil Camp Speicher x2, Dijla, Mikishifa, Muthanna Facility, Salahaddin	23	71
Feb 12	Mikishifa, Tikrit x2, Salahaddin	22	27
Feb 13
Feb 14
Totals	14	69	144
Feb 15	Edheim, Diyala	6	21
Feb 16	Abbasid & Camp Speicher, Salahaddin	4	30
Feb 17
Feb 18	Outside Samarra, Salahaddin	7	18
Feb 19
Feb 20
Feb 21	Qazzanah, Diyala		4
Totals	5	17	73
Feb 22	Baya, Baghdad Tikrit, Salahaddin	15	29
Feb 23
Feb 24	Jsir Diyala & Meshahda, Baghdad Sarbzani & Tuz Kharmato, Salahaddin	42	84
Feb 25
Feb 26	Mahmudiya, Babil	2	8
Feb 27
Feb 28	Anbar-Saudi border crossing, Anbar Baladrooz x3, Diyala Sur Nash x3, Salahaddin	41	91
Totals	15	100	212
FEB	52	225	488

The Islamic State picked up its car bomb (Vehicle Borne Improvised Explosive Devices) attacks in February. There were 52 for the month, up from 45 in January despite having three fewer days. There were two waves marked by three straight days or more of VBIED attacks from February 2 to 5 and February 9 to 12. In previous years Baghdad was the main target of car bombs, but that has now changed. For the month the capital province was only struck four times. Instead Salahaddin had the most with 17, and Anbar, Babil and Diyala had three each. The number of casualties caused by these types of attacks went up as well from 151 dead in January to 221 in February and the wounded going from 257 to 446. This was due to several mass casualty attacks throughout the country. For example, on February 9 three suicide bombers hit the headquarters of the 1^st Army Brigade in Jabber, Salahaddin killing 7 and wounding 29 soldiers. February 24, a VBIED followed by an IED went off near a fire station in Jisr Diyala in southeast Baghdad leaving 30 fatalities and 55 injured. Then on February 28 three car bombs detonated in a market in Baladrooz, Diyala taking the lives of 25 people and wounding another 60, while three more VBIEDs hit a checkpoint outside of Samarra, Salahaddin killing 16 and wounding 31 members of the ISF and militias. Before civilians were the main target to spread terror and raise sectarian tensions. Now the pro-government forces are singled out with 27 of 52 VBIEDs being used against them in February. This trend started in the second half of 2014, and has continued to the present day. This was due to a change in strategy as IS had to first concentrate upon seizing territory during its summer offensive, and is now trying to re-take it, which means attacking hard targets rather than civilians.

Even though security incidents went down in Anbar, deaths saw a dramatic increase in February. From January to February incidents went from 161 to 122, while the number killed jumped from 318 to 577. The latter was due to a wave of mass executions by IS. The group has always carried out these types of murders, such as on February 12 when it killed 16 in Anbar including one boy. Then in the middle of the month it took most of Baghdadi and began large scale killings. February 15 it killed three police there, followed by another 27 civilians on February 16. In the following days it executed another 239 in the city, while burning 103 in Hit and Rawa. By the end of the month most of Baghdadi was cleared, but it showed that the insurgents still had large offensive capabilities in the governorate. The ISF and tribes on the other hand remain overextended. Baghdad has watched as most of the province was taken over since December 2013, while doing little about it. It did send in reinforcements from outside of Anbar to retake Baghdadi, but that was because it threatened Assad Air Base, which is right outside the city, and is a major training facility for the United States. Otherwise the pro-government forces’ operations have been largely ineffective, because they lack the manpower to hold any area. For example, since Prime Minister Haider Abadi took power in September 2014, there have been 16 operations in the Ramadi area, yet IS has gained ground there over that same time period. The government is more focused in other parts of the country, and until that changes Anbar will remain in jeopardy.

In Babil the Islamic State is trying to regroup and attacks have slowly crept up as a result. In October IS’s long time base in Jurf al-Sakhr was finally taken by the ISF and militias. That led to a dramatic improvement in security in the governorate. Attacks went from 47 in September to 44 in October to 36 in November and 27 in December. Since then the numbers have been going in the opposite direction with 29 in January and 34 in February. Almost all of these incidents now occur in the north in places like Mahmudiya, Latifiya, and Yusifiya. Still, IS is nowhere near as strong as it once was.

The number of casualties increased in Baghdad due to some mass casualty VBIED attacks. Deaths went from 357 in January to 437 in February, and the wounded went from 980 to 1,069. Shootings, Improvised Explosive Devices and Sticky Bombs remained largely the same between the two months, but car bombs went from 2 to 6. Those resulted in 46 deaths and 98 injured. Still, the main driver of insecurity in the province was IEDs, with more than 100 such detonations in the last two months, the highest amounts in the last 14 months.

In January Badr Organization head Hadi Ameri and a local ISF general claimed that Diyala was free of insurgents. That was a huge exaggeration. The security operation only targeted the Muqtadiya area in the center of the governorate, which temporarily dispersed insurgents from the area, but they quickly regrouped in other parts of Diyala. That was shown by the fact that there were 53 incidents in January and 51 in February. Casualties saw a dramatic drop however from 820 in January to 142 in February, but that was because a number of mass graves were discovered at the start of the year. Otherwise militants are back at work in the governorate.

Where there was a real improvement in security was in Kirkuk. There attacks went from 54 in January to 13 in February. Those occurred on just 10 days out of the month. This was a big change, because the month before IS launched major offensives against the peshmerga in several towns, topped off by an assault upon Kirkuk city itself. IS has either undergone a massive regrouping or it shifted forces to other areas.

IS also continued with its attempt to re-take territory in Ninewa, but with nothing to show for it. Throughout the month it attacked positions to the south and west of Mosul such as Sinjar and Makhmour. Casualties however continue to be led by executions by the Islamists. During the month it executed 84 people mostly in Mosul, while 73 dead Yazidis were discovered in Sinjar and Zummar, and another 23 in a mass grave in Zummar as well. That was 72% of the total deaths during February. This is the deadly price that the province is paying for being occupied by the Islamic State.

Salahaddin was much like Anbar with the ISF, tribes and militias overstretched. In December and January the pro-government forces strung together a number of successful security operations such as in Baiji only to prove unable to hold them. Like in Anbar, insurgents attacked across the province to try to spread out their opponents, and keep them off balance. This included a new round of attacks upon the Samarra area, especially Mikshifa, which was struck ten times during the month. This strategy will be put to the test as the ISF and militias have begun a major campaign to clear Tikrit and the surrounding area in March. IS will continue to attack other areas to draw away forces and threaten supply lines. The government’s forces will also be under scrutiny to see whether it can take a major Sunni city. It should have the advantage in men and material, as the militants have not been able to stand up and stop any previous operations of this size.

SOURCES

AIN, "Car bomb goes off in southwestern Baghdad," 2/22/15

- "ISIL executes 50-year female employee within Nineveh PC," 2/11/15

- "Mass grave seized western Mosul," 2/2/15

Alsumaria, "Daash executed a woman in Mosul," 2/10/15

-"Daash organization executed two doctors in Mosul for refusing to treat its wounded," 2/14/15

eKurd, "Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief - February 24, 2015," 2/24/15

Al Forat, "20 Persons gunned by ISIL in Mosul," 2/8/15

- "Civilians killed, injured in southern Baghdad," 2/26/15

Independent Press Agency, "Daash executed an Iraqi journalist in Mosul," 2/21/15

Iraq Times, "37 Martyrs and wounded in suicide bombings targeting the headquarters of the army in Samarra," 2/9/15

- "Toll rises double bombing in Diyala to 85 martyrs and wounded," 2/28/15

Kurd Press, "IS executes senior army officers in Mosul," 2/12/15

Al Mada, "Daash executed former candidate for parliament in central Mosul," 2/10/15

Mamuzini, Hazhar, "IS Executes 30 People for Refusing to Join Fight," Bas News, 2/14/15

Al Masalah, "A mass grave with the remains of 23 people in Zammar," 2/5/15

Millet, "Peshmerga and Yazidi Mass Graves Found," 2/4/15

NINA, "Daash Executes A Boy For Criticizing Them In Facebook," 2/12/15

- "Daash executed people and cut off the hands of another in central Mosul," 2/13/15

- "Daash Kidnap 28 Police, Three Bodies of Them Found," 2/15/15

- "The IS elements executed a Christian cleric in Mosul," 2/2/15

- "The IS executed a police officer with the rank of Brigade Adnan al-Lahibi south of Mosul," 2/5/15

- "The IS executed five shiekhs of al-Luhaib tribe south of Mosul," 2/19/15

- "The IS executed three lawyers in Mosul," 2/23/15

- "Local residents: Intensive spread of the IS in the city of Mosul, two police officers in Nineveh executed," 2/1/15

- "A suicide Bomber, Driving a Military Vehicle, blows himself Up Near a Border Station Between Iraq and Saudi Arabia," 2/28/15

Radio Free Iraq, "01 February 2015," Daily Updates from Anbar, 2/1/15

Al Rayy, "Daash executed five army officers in central Mosul," 2/9/15

- "Daash execute one of the elders of a mosque in Mosul for refusing to take a sermon under its guidance," 2/13/15

Shafaq News, "Baghdad bomb toll rises to 30 dead and 55 wounded," 2/24/15

- "Iraqi official: Daash executed 27 policemen and threw their bodies in the river," 2/16/15

- "ISIS execute two young men in central Mosul," 2/21/15

Today Online, "Second Yazidi mass grave unearthed in Iraq this week," 2/7/15

Yacoub, Sameer, "Attacks kill 19 people in Iraq," Associated Press, 2/22/15

- "Attacks Kill 37 People in and North of Iraq's Capital," Associated Press, 2/28/15

- "Bombs in Iraq, Including Twin Blasts in Busy Street, Kill 40," Associated Press, 2/24/15