Iraq’s oil exports and earnings saw a slight increase from
January to February 2015. The Kurdish contribution increased during last month,
which was good news given all the wrangling between Irbil and Baghdad. The bad
news was exports via the south continued to be plagued by bad weather. More
importantly, the country was not coming close to the amounts set out in its
2015 budget.
Iraq’s exports went up roughly 60,000 barrels a day last
month. From January
to February the country went from an average of 2.535 million barrels a day
to 2.597 million. The former was actually a revised figure as initially it was
said Iraq exported 2.35 million barrels in January. The increase was due to the
Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) sending
more oil to Turkey for the Oil Ministry. In January it exported an average
of 145,000 barrels a day for Baghdad going up to 304,000 barrels in February.
That was still below its quota of 550,000 barrels set in the 2015 budget, but
Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi praised it as progress. Under the agreement between the
two sides, Kurdistan is to provide 250,000 barrels a day from Kurdish fields
and 300,000 barrels a day from Kirkuk ones it occupied after the insurgent
summer offensive. Iraq Oil Report said that February’s shipments included oil
from both. KRG Natural Resource Minister Ashti Hawrami said that the Kurds would
increase their exports in coming months so that by the end of the year it was
meeting its quota.
While that problem was being worked out the southern ports
continued to be effected by bad weather for a second month. Poor weather
creates rough seas that hinder tankers from docking at Basra’s ports and
mooring stations. That caused exports from the south to dip from 2.76 million
barrels in December to 2.39 million in January and 2.293 million in February.
In January Iraq also suffered from some buyers refusing
shipments. That month the Oil Ministry began including oil from the Halfaya
field in Maysan directly to the ports without mixing them beforehand with output
from other fields to achieve the proper levels.
In February Iraq’s crude went for $47.43 per barrel. That
was up from January’s $41.45. Likewise revenues went from $3.258 billion to
$3.449 billion between the two months. This was down 49% from the country’s
2014 average of $7 billion a month and showed the financial straights it will
be in throughout the year as it is almost completely dependent upon petroleum.
Iraq Oil Exports And Profits
2011-2014
Month
|
Avg.
Exports
(Mil/
Bar/
Day)
|
Avg. Price Per Barrel
|
Revenue (Bill)
|
Jan. 11
|
2.16
|
$90.78
|
$6.082
|
Feb.
|
2.20
|
$98.44
|
$6.064
|
Mar.
|
2.15
|
$107.13
|
$7.167
|
Apr.
|
2.14
|
$114.26
|
$7.342
|
May
|
2.22
|
$108
|
$7.47
|
Jun.
|
2.27
|
$105.17
|
$7.173
|
Jul.
|
2.16
|
$108.79
|
$7.311
|
Aug.
|
2.18
|
$104.91
|
$7.124
|
Sep.
|
2.10
|
$104.89
|
$6.619
|
Oct.
|
2.08
|
$104.04
|
$6.742
|
Nov.
|
2.13
|
$106.59
|
$6.833
|
Dec.
|
2.14
|
$106.18
|
$7.061
|
2011 Avg.
|
2.16
|
$105.00
|
$6.913
|
Jan. 12
|
2.10
|
$109.08
|
$7.123
|
Feb.
|
2.01
|
$112.92
|
$6.595
|
Mar.
|
2.31
|
$117.99
|
$8.472
|
Apr.
|
2.50
|
$116.79
|
$8.795
|
May
|
2.45
|
$103.03
|
$8
|
Jun.
|
2.40
|
$90.09
|
$6.453
|
Jul.
|
2.51
|
$97.14
|
$7.577
|
Aug.
|
2.56
|
$106.22
|
$8.445
|
Sep.
|
2.59
|
$107.59
|
$8.371
|
Oct.
|
2.62
|
$105.51
|
$8.578
|
Nov.
|
2.62
|
$104.32
|
$8.200
|
Dec.
|
2.34
|
$103.72
|
$7.551
|
2012
Avg.
|
2.41
|
$106.20
|
$7.846
|
Jan. 13
|
2.35
|
$104.92
|
$7.672
|
Feb.
|
2.53
|
$107.66
|
$7.644
|
Mar.
|
2.41
|
$103.76
|
$7.772
|
Apr.
|
2.62
|
$98.70
|
$7.764
|
May
|
2.48
|
$97.23
|
$7.477
|
Jun.
|
2.32
|
$97.40
|
$6.799
|
Jul.
|
2.32
|
$101.00
|
$7.272
|
Aug.
|
2.57
|
$104.45
|
$8.356
|
Sep.
|
2.07
|
$104.87
|
$6.511
|
Oct.
|
2.25
|
$102.57
|
$7.160
|
Nov.
|
2.381
|
$102.57
|
$7.324
|
Dec.
|
2.341
|
$102.89
|
$7.470
|
2013 Avg.
|
2.386
|
$102.33
|
$7.435
|
Jan. 14
|
2.228
|
$102.37
|
$7.074
|
Feb
|
2.799
|
$102.05
|
$8.001
|
Mar
|
2.396
|
$101.03
|
$7.507
|
Apr
|
2.509
|
$100.69
|
$7.582
|
May
|
2.582
|
$100.69
|
$8.077
|
Jun
|
2.423
|
$102.96
|
$7.470
|
Jul
|
2.442
|
$102.27
|
$7.742
|
Aug
|
2.375
|
$97.44
|
$7.172
|
Sep
|
2.542
|
$90.76
|
$6.916
|
Oct
|
2.432
|
$81.12
|
$6.120
|
Nov
|
2.51
|
$70.40
|
$5.25
|
Dec
|
2.941
|
$56.59
|
$5.161
|
2014 Avg.
|
2.51
|
$92.39
|
$7.013
|
Jan
|
2.535
|
$41.45
|
$3.258
|
Feb
|
2.597
|
$47.43
|
$3.449
|
While the small increase in exports was good news, and the
fact that the Kurds were shipping more was even better Iraq is still not coming
anywhere close to its marks set in the 2015
budget. That document calls for 3.3 million barrels a day in exports at $56
per barrel. Even if it did meet those figures it is expected to run into a
$21.3 billion deficit that will be difficult to cover. In December
2014 Iraq reached 2.941 million barrels. Roughly 180,000 of that was from the
KRG. That means if the Kurds met their full quota Iraq has the potential to
reach 3.3 million. The problem as ever is that exports are never steady for a
number of reasons whether that be due to the weather or maintenance work or
political disputes. Not only that there is no telling when Iraqi crude will
reach the $56 barrel price. All that means the country will be facing an even
more dire economic situation then it was already planning for with far reaching
consequences as it owes money to oil companies, needs to pay for a huge public
sector, and is in the middle of a very costly war.
SOURCES
Iraq Oil Report, “With compromise
budget, Iraq buys some time,” 1/30/15
Lando, Ben, “Exports, revenues increase in February,” Iraq
Oil Report, 3/3/15
Reuters, “Iraq oil exports rise to 2.597 mln bpd in
February,” 3/1/15
Van Heuvelen, Ben, Lando, Ben, Iraq, Ali Abu, al-Sai’di, Jewdat,
“Oil exports fall in January,” Iraq Oil Report, 2/3/15
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