This is the second article in a series reviewing security in
Iraq. These are based upon the most complete numbers collected by Musings On
Iraq so far. The basis for these figures are 41 newspapers, which are read each
day. These are a collection of Iraq, western, and Arab media outlets. In
addition, Airwars, which documents U.S.-led Coalition air strikes in Iraq and
Syria, Iraq Body Count, and the United Nations are also consulted. This article
covers the fourth quarter of 2015 when there was the last great surge of
violence in Iraq.
From October to December 2015 there was a large increase in
reported security incidents in Iraq. In October there were 598 incidents, 539
in November, before jumping to 659 in December. That would average out to 19.2
per day, 17.9 and 21.2 for those three months. This surge in violence was due
to two factors. First, the Islamic State launched a huge terrorist campaign in
Baghdad in the winter. Second, the Kurds launched an operation to free Sinjar
in western Ninewa setting off heavy fighting there.
As incidents went up so did casualties. In October there
were 1,190 deaths, going up to 1,521 by December. The number wounded actually
went down from 1,567 in October to 1,430. In total, there were 1,796 incidents
reported leading to 3,927 fatalities, and 4,470 injured for the last quarter of
the year. The close alignment between dead and wounded was another sign that
Iraqi authorities were not divulging their losses. The number of injured is
regularly 2-4 times higher than deaths, but in most major clashes casualties
are rarely mentioned, and figures have never been released for any of the large
campaigns to free territory since the war started in June 2014.
Violence In Iraq 4th Qtr 2015
|
|
Incidents
|
Killed
|
Wounded
|
|
Oct
|
598
|
1,190
|
1,567
|
|
Nov
|
539
|
1,216
|
1,473
|
|
Dec
|
659
|
1,521
|
1,430
|
|
Totals
|
1,796
|
3,927
|
4,470
|
During the last quarter of 2015 Baghdad, Diyala, Kirkuk and
Ninewa saw rising violence, while in Anbar the number of attacks was flat, and
going down in Salahaddin. As the Islamic State was losing more territory in the
country it came to focus upon the capital. There, incidents went from 8.4 in
October to 10.8 by December. Similarly, IS began picking up its operations in
Diyala at the same time. In November there was a low of just 0.7 incidents per
day, which then rose to 1.9 by January 2016. Kirkuk had more fluctuations, but
the trend was still upward starting in November when there were 0.5 incidents
per day going up to 2.0 by February. Ninewa is different from Iraq’s other
provinces because incidents there are just as likely IS executions as clashes
with the Iraqi forces. In November however, the Peshmerga started an operation
to free Sinjar, which set off a large number of counterattacks leading security
figures to rise sharply from 1.6 in October to 3.9 by December. Anbar was one
exception to this trend with incidents being flat during the quarter with 2.9
in October, 2.8 in November, and 2.8 in December before going upwards with the liberations
of Ramadi and Fallujah leading an uptick in 2016. In Salahaddin things were
heading downwards after Baiji was freed in September with incidents going from
3.1 in October to 1.5 by December. This was the Islamic State’s last big surge
in attacks as in 2016 overall incidents would steadily decline
even with its spring offensive.
Anbar
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
92 Incidents
187 Killed
105 Wounded
31 Shootings
6 IEDs
3 Suicide Car Bobs
3 Car Bombs
7 Mortars
1 Artillery
1 Rockets
38 Suicide Bombers Killed
29 Suicide Car Bombs
Destroyed
65 Car Bombs Destroyed
|
86 Incidents
80 Killed
113 Wounded
28 Shootings
6 IEDs
1 Suicide Car Bomb
8 Mortars
35 Suicide Bombers Killed
2 Suicide Motorcycle Bombs
Killed
66 Suicide Car Bombs
Destroyed
32 Car Bombs Destroyed
|
89 Incidents
306 Killed
178 Wounded
23 Shootings
2 IEDs
6 Suicide Bombers
12 Suicide Car Bombs
1 Rockets
4 Mortars
29 Suicide Bombers Killed
64 Suicide Car Bombs
Destroyed
24 Car Bombs Destroyed
|
Babil
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
7 Incidents
2 Killed
2 Wounded
1 Shooting
2 IEDs
1 Grenade
1 Car Bomb Destroyed
|
6 Incidents
4 Killed
4 Wounded
3 Shootings
1 IED
1 Sticky Bomb
|
5 Incidents
4 Killed
3 Wounded
2 Shootings
2 IEDs
|
Baghdad
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
262 Incidents
373 Killed
1,040 Wounded
55 Shootings
144 IEDs
22 Sticky Bombs
2 Suicide Bombers
4 Suicide Car Bombs
6 Car Bombs
3 Grenades
2 Rockets
1 Mortar
2 Suicide Bombers Killed
1 Car Bomb Dismantled
|
261 Incidents
374 Killed
968 Wounded
61 Shootings
132 IEDs
27 Sticky Bombs
1 Motorcycle Bomb
8 Suicide Bombers
1 Suicide Car Bomb
1 Car Bomb
2 Mortars
1 Grenade
4 Suicide Bombers killed
1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
2 Car Bombs Dismantled
|
335 Incidents
368 Killed
976 Wounded
84 Shootings
173 IEDs
30 Sticky Bombs
1 Bicycle Bomb
1 Motorcycle Bomb
1 Suicide Bomber
4 Mortars
2 Grenades
4 Suicide Bombers Killed
1 Car Bomb Dismantled
|
Basra
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
5 Incidents
11 Killed
30 Wounded
1 Shooting
1 IED
1 Sound Bomb
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Car Bomb
|
3 Incidents
2 Killed
2 Shootings
1 Sound Bomb
|
5 Incidents
1 Killed
2 Wounded
3 Shootings
2 IEDs
|
Diyala
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
43 Incidents
105 Killed
166 Wounded
10 Shootings
10 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
1 Car Bomb
13 Mortars
2 Car Bombs Destroyed
|
22 Incidents
18 Killed
35 Wounded
8 Shootings
4 IEDs
2 Sticky Bombs
1 Motorcycle Bomb
1 Mortar
1 Suicide Car Bomb Destroyed
|
28 Incidents
22 Killed
32 Wounded
8 Shootings
10 IEDs
2 Sticky Bombs
2 Car Bombs
4 Mortars
|
|
|
|
|
Irbil
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
-
|
1 Incident
1 Shooting
|
-
|
Karbala
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
-
|
-
|
1 Incident
1 Shooting
5 Suicide Bombers Killed
|
Kirkuk
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
35 Incidents
62 Killed
18 Wounded
13 Shootings
7 IEDs
2 Rockets
1 Mine
|
16 Incidents
26 Killed
25 Wounded
8 Shootings
3 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
4 Suicide Bombers
1 Car Bomb
|
25 Incidents
42 Killed
15 Wounded
13 Shootings
1 Mortar
|
KRG
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
2 Incidents
35 Killed
2 Turkish Air Strikes
|
-
|
-
|
Maysan
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
1 Incident
1 Killed
1 Shooting
|
-
|
1 Incident
1 Killed
1 Shooting
|
Najaf
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
-
|
1 Incident
1 Killed
1 Shooting
|
-
|
Ninewa
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
52 Incidents
279 Killed
34 Wounded
16 Shootings
11 IEDs
1 Grenade
4 Rockets
2 Mortars
|
80 incidents
636 Killed
184 Wounded
39 Shootings
8 IEDs
8 Suicide Bombers
1 Suicide Car Bomb
2 Car Bombs
4 Mortars
3 Rockets
29 Suicide Bombers Killed
18 Suicide Car Bombs
Destroyed
|
121 Incidents
737 Killed
183 Wounded
50 Shootings
33 IEDs
6 Suicide Bombers
2 Suicide Car Bombs
10 Car Bombs
7 Mortars
4 Rockets
22 Suicide Bombers Killed
12 Suicide Car Bombs
Destroyed
3 Car Bombs Destroyed
|
Qadisiyah
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
1 Incident
1 Killed
1 Sticky Bomb
|
-
|
1 Incident
1 Sound Bomb
|
Salahaddin
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
97 Incidents
133 Killed
172 Wounded
39 Shootings
20 IEDs
1 Sticky Bomb
2 Suicide Bombers
7 Suicide Car Bombs
5 Mortars
1 Rockets
1 Boat Bomb Destroyed
8 Suicide Bombers Killed
3 Suicide Motorcycle Bombs
Destroyed
16 Suicide Car Bombs
Destroyed
39 Car Bombs Destroyed
|
62 Incidents
75 Killed
143 Wounded
41 Shootings
52 IEDs
1 Suicide Bomber
2 Suicide Car Bombs
1 Mortar
29 Suicide Bombers killed
6 Suicide Car Bombs
Destroyed
29 Car Bombs Destroyed
|
48 Incidents
40 Killed
41 Wounded
24 Shootings
5 IEDs
1 Suicide Bomber
1 Rockets
3 Mortars
10 Suicide Bombers Killed
5 Suicide Car Bombs
Destroyed
9 Car Bombs Destroyed
|
Sulaymaniya
|
Oct
|
Nov
|
Dec
|
|
1 Incident
1 Killed
1 Shooting
|
1 Incident
1 Wounded
1 Sticky Bomb
|
-
|
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