At the start of April 2019 the Islamic State announced a new
campaign to avenge its loss of territory in Syria. That resulted in a huge jump
in attacks during the second week of the month. After that however, incidents
went back down to their previous level. Is more to come or has the offensive
been derailed by the Iraqi forces that captured an insurgent headquarters and
documents detailing its plans?
There were a total of 99 incidents reported in the press.
Two of those were old bodies being found leaving 97 actual attacks during the
month. That was up from the 61 recorded in March, but below the 117 in February
and 114 in January. The figures went up in April because of the 41 incidents in
the 2nd week of the month. The other weeks attacks were in the
teens. Diyala with 30 led the country. The Iraqi forces raided an IS base in
that province, and the Counter Terror Service claimed they disrupted the new
campaign the Islamic State announced. The low weekly figures afterward may
prove that true. Then again, IS usually plans offensives to last for months
from the spring into the summer so it’s too early to tell.
There were 105 deaths and 100 wounded during the month. 36
bodies were found in Ninewa leaving 69 violent deaths during the week. 2 from
the Kurdish Anti-Terror Forces, 8 Hashd al-Shaabi, 15 Iraqi Security Forces
(ISF), and 80 civilians were killed, and 1 Kurd Anti-Terror forces, 18 Hashd,
34 civilians, and 47 ISF were injured. Diyala with 45 casualties had the most
during the week. Ninewa’s 59 included the 36 corpses discovered.
Violence in Anbar has continuously fluctuated. There were 16
incidents in January, 27 in February, all the way down to 5 in March, and then
16 in April. The Islamic State has been moving forces and back forth along the
border with Syria, and most of the violence has taken place in that western
section of the province. For instance, there was a small car bomb targeting
people collecting truffles in Rutba. Still, it remains a secondary front for
the group.
Baghdad is largely a forgotten province to the Islamic
State. Since the start of the year there have been several weeks in a row with
no activity. Then there were five straight weeks of very small and low level
attacks from the end of March into early April. The end of the last month
however, there was again no IS operations. In total, there were 10 incidents in
April, versus 4 in March, 7 in February and 12 in January. All the attacks
happen in the north, south, and west, usually in the outer villages of the
governorate. If violence suddenly surged in the capital that would be a sure
sign that the Islamic State had reached a new point in its rebuilding. For now
however, incidents will likely remain sporadic as the group is focused upon the
areas to the north and east.
Diyala remains the core area for IS. The group never seized
any territory there in 2014 so it immediately reverted back to an insurgency,
giving it more time to work there. In April there were 30 attacks, up from 17
in March, 26 in February, and equal to the 32 seen in January. The militants
have access to all of the rural areas in the province. It has been
concentrating on the Khanaqin district in the northeast, which was one of the
disputed territories taken back by the central government after the 2017
Kurdish independence referendum. Baghdad has not had the troops to secure it
however and the insurgents have taken advantage of that. There are constant
reports of people fleeing towns, IS extorting money from people, and
kidnappings. The environment in Diyala is hospitable to IS’s rebuilding with
the Hamrin Mountains being a long time base, and the groves in the west. During
April there was one attack upon a mukhtar, one town was assaulted, there were
two gun battles with the security forces and 4 checkpoints were attacked.
Attacks have gone down in Kirkuk since the start of the
year. There were 28 in January, 17 in February, 15 in March, and 13 in April. IS
is active in all the districts of the province, and has access to Kirkuk city.
During the month it set up three ambushes for the security forces, a new tactic
that had not been seen for a while.
Ninewa is another province where incidents have gone up and
down. There were 9 in January, up to 20 in February, down to 11 in March, and
then back up to 19 in April. The insurgents have been carrying out attacks in
the west and south. In April there was one gun battle, a mukhtar was attacked
along with two towns, and there were two kidnappings. Like Diyala, there are
increasing stories of people fleeing towns due to IS activity, especially in
the west. Like Anbar, IS has moved its forces from Syria into Ninewa as well.
Incidents have fallen off in Salahaddin recently. There were
14 in January, 18 in February, and then 8 in March and April each. One of those
was an attack upon an ISF convoy and then an assault upon the response forces
that arrived at the scene, again something not seen in a while. The province
includes the Hamrin Mountains that runs into neighboring Diyala, which is an
important IS base. For now it looks like IS is concentrating upon its neighbor
rather than Salahaddin.
Security In Iraq 2018-19
Week
|
Security
Incidents
(Total/By IS)
|
Dead
(Total/By IS)
|
Wounded
(Total/By IS)
|
Jan 1-7
|
62/60
|
45
|
63
|
Jan 8-14
|
58/56
|
58/56
|
66/63
|
Jan 15-21
|
62/59
|
151
|
151
|
Jan 22-28
|
59/51
|
140/136
|
65/63
|
Jan 29-31
|
24
|
21
|
21
|
JAN 2018
|
265/
250 by IS
|
417/
409 by IS
(196 Violent Deaths)
|
366/
361 by IS
|
Feb 1-7
|
58/56
|
192/141
|
62/60
|
Feb 8-14
|
57
|
58
|
91
|
Feb 15-21
|
53/52
|
343
|
43
|
Feb 22-28
|
46/44
|
38/37
|
70/68
|
FEB
|
214/
209 by IS
|
631/
579 by IS
(215 Violent Deaths)
|
266/
262 by IS
|
Mar 1-7
|
68/64
|
115/108
|
79/77
|
Mar 8-14
|
52
|
75
|
59
|
Mar 15-21
|
64/59
|
165/119
|
98
|
Mar 22-28
|
77/64
|
210/87
|
61/60
|
Mar 29-31
|
19/18
|
26/25
|
34
|
MAR
|
280/
257 by IS
|
591/
414 by IS
(446 Violent Deaths)
|
331/
328 by IS
|
Apr 1-7
|
38/34
|
172/140
|
27/25
|
Apr 8-14
|
60/52
|
173/136
|
81/72
|
Apr 15-21
|
43/35
|
63/18
|
72/70
|
Apr 22-28
|
40/31
|
60/30
|
39/33
|
Apr 29-30
|
12/11
|
14/11
|
4
|
APR
|
193/
163 by IS
|
482/
335 by IS
(236 Violent Deaths)
|
223/
204 by IS
|
May 1-7
|
45/39
|
52/43
|
55/54
|
May 8-14
|
55/51
|
68/46
|
49
|
May 15-21
|
35/32
|
55/26
|
80/75
|
May 22-28
|
49/46
|
72/62
|
51/49
|
May 29-31
|
16/13
|
39/30
|
15
|
MAY
|
200/
181 by IS
|
286/
207 by IS
(261 Violent Deaths)
|
250/
242 by IS
|
Jun 1-7
|
50/44
|
96/87
|
29/28
|
Jun 8-14
|
67/59
|
107/47
|
88
|
Jun 15-21
|
40/35
|
82/28
|
19
|
Jun 22-28
|
45/44
|
53/38
|
62
|
Jun 29-30
|
17/15
|
21/16
|
14
|
JUN
|
219/
197 by IS
|
359/
216 by IS
(315 Violent Deaths)
|
212/
211 by IS
|
Jul 1-7
|
50/49
|
56/52
|
90
|
Jul 8-14
|
42/39
|
56/47
|
31
|
Jul 15-21
|
50/45
|
59/42
|
63
|
Jul 22-28
|
29/24
|
61/53
|
19/15
|
Jul 29-31
|
23/21
|
25/13
|
11
|
JUL
|
194/
178 by IS
|
257/
207 by IS
(212 Violent Deaths)
|
214/
210 by IS
|
Aug 1-7
|
43/39
|
49/45
|
30/29
|
Aug 8-14
|
43/42
|
38
|
44
|
Aug 15-21
|
38/35
|
24/21
|
40/37
|
Aug 22-28
|
35/31
|
25/19
|
61
|
Aug 29-31
|
27/24
|
68/30
|
43
|
AUG
|
186/
171 by IS
|
204/
153 by IS
(189 Violent Deaths)
|
218/
214 by IS
|
Sep 1-7
|
38
|
44
|
54
|
Sep 8-14
|
48/43
|
63/55
|
127
|
Sep 15-21
|
44/38
|
90/74
|
70
|
Sep 22-28
|
36/33
|
22/17
|
27/26
|
Sep 29-30
|
9/6
|
19/10
|
29/25
|
SEP
|
175/
158 by IS
|
237/
200 by IS
(179 Violent Deaths)
|
307/
302 by IS
|
Oct 1-7
|
54/49
|
85/25
|
92
|
Oct 8-14
|
43/41
|
161/152
|
41
|
Oct 15-21
|
54/50
|
87/72
|
35
|
Oct 22-28
|
24/23
|
24/20
|
53
|
Oct 29-31
|
23
|
10
|
24
|
OCT
|
198/
186 by IS
|
367/
279 by IS
(177 Violent Deaths)
|
245 by IS
|
Nov 1-7
|
32/31
|
75/69
|
36
|
Nov 8-14
|
39/31
|
111/63
|
19
|
Nov 15-21
|
30/27
|
51/43
|
29
|
Nov 22-28
|
26/21
|
35/25
|
30
|
Nov 29-30
|
9/8
|
4
|
27
|
NOV
|
136/
118 by IS
|
276/
204 by IS
(183 Violent Deaths_
|
141 by IS
|
Dec 1-7
|
22/15
|
21/8
|
11
|
Dec 8-14
|
22
|
15
|
22
|
Dec 15-21
|
23/21
|
23/16
|
17
|
Dec 22-28
|
30/28
|
24/18
|
37
|
Dec 29-31
|
15/14
|
225/220
|
4
|
DEC
|
112/
100 by IS
|
308/
277 by IS
(96 Violent Deaths)
|
91 by IS
|
Jan 1-7
|
32/31
|
17/10
|
24
|
Jan 8-14
|
32/30
|
97/94
|
53
|
Jan 15-21
|
22/18
|
17/11
|
16/14
|
Jan 22-28
|
27/22
|
36/17
|
31
|
Jan 29-31
|
12
|
7
|
6
|
JAN
|
125/
114 by IS
|
174/
139 by IS
(108 Violent Deaths)
|
130/
128 by IS
|
Feb 1-7
|
29/28
|
76
|
30
|
Feb 8-14
|
24
|
26
|
18
|
Feb 15-21
|
40
|
112
|
12
|
Feb 22-28
|
25
|
36
|
70
|
FEB
|
118/
117 by IS
|
250 by IS
(115 Violent Deaths)
|
130 by IS
|
Mar 1-7
|
13
|
22
|
45
|
Mar 8-14
|
19/18
|
75/10
|
37
|
Mar 15-21
|
12/11
|
66/37
|
21/11
|
Mar 22-28
|
13/12
|
8/5
|
1
|
Mar 29-31
|
6
|
8
|
7
|
MAR
|
63/
61 by IS
|
179/
147 by IS
(54 Violent Deaths)
|
111/
101 by IS
|
Apr 1-7
|
20
|
22
|
13
|
Apr 8-14
|
41
|
28
|
42
|
Apr 15-21
|
17/16
|
9/8
|
26
|
Apr 22-28
|
19/18
|
45/10
|
15
|
Apr 29-30
|
2
|
1
|
4
|
APR
|
99 by IS/97
|
105 by IS
(69 Violent Deaths)
|
100 by IS
|
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