Monday, February 7, 2022

IS Attacks On 5 Month Decline In Iraq


Violence went in different directions in Iraq in January 2022. Attacks by the Islamic State continued their half year decline. Pro-Iran groups however started the month off with a bang before tapering off towards the end.

 

There were a total of 84 security incidents reported in Iraq in January. That was up from 78 in December and 67 in November. The increase was due to groups linked with Iran.


 

There were 31 successful attacks by pro-Iran groups during the month along with 9 other incidents. That was up from 21 in December and the highest monthly total by these groups since they started their recent operations. As usual they were focused upon bombing supply convoys working for the Americans. Trucks were hit in Babil (5), Baghdad (6), Basra (1), Dhi Qar (1), Muthanna (4), and Salahaddin (1), and IEDs were dismantled in Babil, Baghdad, Dhi Qar (2), Diwaniya, and Muthanna. Rockets were also fired at Turkish bases in Ninewa three times, Ain al-Asad base in Anbar, and Baghdad International Airport, Camp Victory and the Green Zone in Baghdad. Drones were downed at Ain al-Asad Base and Baghdad airport.

 

There was also political violence by these factions to try to pressure Moqtada al-Sadr and his allies to include the Coordination Framework which is made up of all the major Shiite parties besides Sadr’s into the new government. That led to bombings of the Kurdistan Democratic Party’s offices in Baghdad and the deputy speaker’s office in Kirkuk, rockets fired at Speaker Mohammed Halbusi’s house in Anbar, a Molotov cocktail thrown at a Sadr building in Baghdad, along with an assassination attempt upon a KDP official in the capital, plus grenades thrown at Taqadum and Azm Alliances’ buildings in Baghdad. Finally, two Kurdish banks were bombed in the capital.

 

On the other hand, incidents by the Islamic State have been going down for the last five months. In January there were 46 compared to 55 in December, 55 in November, 65 in October and 70 in September. The Islamic State usually pulls back during the winter, but this represents the lowest number of attacks in Iraq since 2003. It raises the question of whether the group is purposefully holding back to rebuild or whether it has suffered such strategic loses that it is heading for its end.

 

The situation in Iraq’s provinces stayed largely the same during the month. The group focused almost all of its attention upon defensive operations to keep civilians and the government forces out of its areas.



 

Anbar and Ninewa remained logistics hubs with few attacks. There were just three in Anbar and four in Ninewa.


 

Babil saw an attack upon the Hashd in the Jurf al-Sakhr district in the northeast, a bombing of a mosque and an old IED going off.


 

The Islamic State is still active in northern Baghdad province. That led to several incidents in Tarmiya and Taji. There was also a rare bombing in the south in Madain which used to be an insurgent base.



 

Attacks remained at low levels in Kirkuk and Salahaddin. There were 11 incidents in Kirkuk up from 9 in December and 8 in November. Salahaddin went in the other direction with 9 incidents in November, 6 in December and 5 in January. Both governorates have well known IS bases and yet it is not using them for operations. This is part of the dilemma of currently analyzing the group. Are they so low in men and material that they can’t use them more or are they purposely holding back to reconstitute itself?


 

Diyala is the center of IS in Iraq. Even there attacks went down from 27 in December to 14 in January. That included the biggest attack in quite some time when IS assaulted a regimental command center in Edheim in the north which left 11 soldiers dead and another 10 wounded. Usually, most incidents are in the Muqdadiya district in the center and Khanaqin in the northeast but recently the militants have been hitting the northeast along the border with Salahaddin. That area is used to move people back and forth between the two. It appears that IS is trying to assert more control there.

 

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province

Jan 1-7

Jan 8-14

Jan 15-21

Jan 22-28

Jan 29-31

Totals

Anbar

2 Pro-Iran

2

1

1 Pro-Iran

-

6/3 Pro-Iran

Babil

2 Pro-Iran

4/3 Pro-Iran

1

2/1 Pro-Iran

-

9/6 Pro-Iran

Baghdad

4/3 Pro-Iran

10/7 Pro-Iran

1

2 Pro-Iran

1

22/16 Pro-Iran

Basra

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

Dhi Qar

-

2 Pro-Iran

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

3 Pro-Iran

Diwaniya

-

1 Pro-Iran

-

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

Diyala

4

3

3

4

-

14

Kirkuk

2

2

1 Pro-Iran

5

1

12/1 Pro-Iran

Muthanna

1 Pro-Iran

3 Pro-Iran

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

5 Pro-Iran

Ninewa

2/1 Pro-Iran

2

2 Pro-Iran

-

1

7/3 Pro-Iran

Salahaddin

1

2/1 Pro-Iran

2/1 Pro-Iran

1

1

7/2 Pro-Iran

TOTAL

18/9 Pro-Iran

31/17 Pro-Iran

12/5 Pro-Iran

16/4 Pro-Iran

6/2 Pro-Iran

87/41 Pro-Iran

 

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province

Jan 1-7

Jan 8-14

Jan 15-21

Jan 22-28

Jan 29-31

Totals

Anbar

-

4 (1K, 3W)

1 (1W)

2 (2W)

-

7 (1K, 6W)

Babil

-

1 (1W)

-

3 (2K, 1W)

-

4 (2K, 2W)

Baghdad

2 (1K, 1W)

12 (12W)

2 (2K)

-

-

16 (3K, 13W)

Diyala

3 (1K, 2W)

3 (2K, 1W)

22 (11K, 11W)

10 (2K, 8W)

-

38 (16K, 22W)

Kirkuk

1 (1W)

-

-

12 (4K, 8W)

5 (2K, 3W)

18 (6K, 12W)

Ninewa

1 (1K)

-

-

-

-

1 (1K)

Salahaddin

-

1 (1W)

4 (4K)

-

3 (3W)

8 (4K, 4W)

TOTAL

7 (3K, 4W)

21 (3K, 18W)

29 (17K, 12W)

27 (8K, 19W)

8 (2K, 6W)

92 (33K, 59W)

 

Attacks by Pro-Iran Groups

 

December Totals 21 (2) – 4 Killed, 4 Wounded

1/2/22

Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa

1/3/22

2 Drones shot down – Baghdad International Airport

1/4/22

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad

 

Drone shot down – Ain al-Asad Base, Anbar

1/5/22

Rockets – Camp Victory, Baghdad

 

Rockets – Ain al-Asad Base, Anbar

 

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Muthanna, Babil

1/6/22

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil

1/9/22

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil, Baghdad x2, Muthanna, Salahaddin

 

IED dismantled – Baghdad, Dhi Qar, Diwaniya, Muthanna

1/11/22

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Baghdad x2, Muthanna

 

IED Dismantled - Babil

1/12/22

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Babil

1/13/22

Rockets – Green Zone – 3 Wounded

 

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Baghdad

 

IED on KDP offices - Baghdad

 

IED dismantled – Dhi Qar

1/14/22

Assassination attempt on KDP official - Baghdad

 

Grenades thrown at Taqadum and Azm offices - Baghdad

1/15/22

Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa

 

Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa

 

Drones shot down – Balad Air Base, Salahaddin

1/16/22

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Basra

 

IEDs on Cihan Bank and Kurdistan Bank, Baghdad

1/19/22

IED 2nd Dep Speaker’s office - Kirkuk

1/23/22

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Babil

1/26/22

Rockets – Speaker Halbusi’s House, Anbar

 

Molotov cocktail – Sadr office, Baghdad

1/28/22

Rockets – Baghdad International Airport

1/30/22

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US – Dhi Qar, Muthanna

 

January Totals 31 (9) – 3 Wounded

 

Security In Iraq 2021-22

Week

Security

Incidents

(Total/By IS)

Dead

(Total/By IS)

Wounded

(Total/By IS)

Jan 1-7

21/2

13

19

Jan 8-14

17/3

12

6

Jan 15-21

20/3

52

133

Jan 22-28

10/3

13

12

Jan 29-31

9/1

2

6

JAN

77/13

92

176

Feb 1-7

19/2

11

23

Feb 8-14

11/3

4

8

Feb 15-21

20/7

11

23

Feb 22-28

13/4

13

23

FEB

63/16

39

77

Mar 1-7

19/5

5

8

Mar 8-14

12/2

13

15

Mar 15-21

24/6

8

7

Mar 22-28

14/2

8

13

Mar 29-31

9/5

2

1

MAR

79/20

39

44

Apr 1-7

16/10

3

5

Apr 8-14

15/6

6

18

Apr 15-21

32/4

19

44

Apr 22-28

31/6

15

42

Apr 29-30

12/1

11

23

APR

107/27

54

132

May 1-7

36/8

33

37

May 8-14

31/5

14

25

May 15-21

15/2

3

3

May 22-28

20/9

3

24

May 29-31

11

6

11

MAY

113/24

59

100

Jun 1-7

12/5

6

29

Jun 8-14

22/10

7

7

Jun 15-21

24/4

14

14

Jun 22-28

19/2

10

17

Jun 29-30

5

-

21

JUN

83/21

36

87

Jul 1-7

38/9

11

35

Jul 8-14

25/4

7

17

Jul 15-21

20/1

48

75

Jul 22-28

10/1

10

7

Jul 29-31

16/5

30

30

JUL

110/20

106

164

Aug 1-7

44/5

12

19

Aug 8-14

31/6

17

23

Aug 15-21

25/8

12

18

Aug 22-28

21/9

8

10

Aug 29-31

12/2

5

12

AUG

133/30

54

82

Sep 1-7

21/3

12

24

Sep 8-14

28/3

24

36

Sep 15-21

13/1

5

17

Sep 22-28

17/4

13

9

Sep 29-30

2

-

-

SEP

81/11

54

86

Oct 1-7

17

11

22

Oct 8-14

14/1

4

13

Oct 15-21

9/2

3

2

Oct 22-28

21/1/1

36

42

Oct 29-31

11/1

7

7

OCT

72/6/1

61

86

Nov 1-7

20/2

3

20

Nov 8-14

15/1

11

18

Nov 15-21

14/4

2

4

Nov 22-28

15/4

10

14

Nov 29-30

3/1

1

3

NOV

67/12

27

59

Dec 1-7

17/2

29

22

Dec 8-14

14/4

4

6

Dec 15-21

22/8

11

12

Dec 22-28

18/8

11

27

Dec 29-31

7/1

5

4

DEC

78/23

56

67

Jan 1-7, 2022

18/9

3

4

Jan 8-14

35/21

3

18

Jan 15-21

12/5

17

12

Jan 22-28

16/3

8

19

Jan 29-31

6/2

2

6

JAN

87/41

33

59

 

Violence By Province Jan 22/28, 2022

Province

Violence

2018 Avg

2019 Avg

2020 Avg

2021 Avg

Anbar

6/3 Pro-Iran Incidents

1 Killed

1 Hashd

6 Wounded

1 ISF

2 Hashd

3 Civilians

 

1 Shooting

4 IEDs

1 Rockets

12.6 incidents/

month

8.6 incidents/ month

7.0 incidents/ month

4.6 incidents/ month

Babil

9/6 Pro-Iran Incidents

2 Killed

2 Civilians

2 Wounded

1 Civilian

1 Hashd

 

9 IEDs

4.0 incidents/month

3.0 incidents/month

2.75 incidents/month

2.5 incidents/month

Baghdad

22/16 Pro-Iran Incidents

3 Killed

1 ISF

2 Hashd

13 Wounded

6 ISF

7 Civilians

 

4 Shootings

11 IEDs

2 Grenades

1 Molotov Cocktail

2 Drones

2 Rockets

33.0 incidents/month

11.6 incidents/month

7.3 incidents/month

5.6 incidents/ month

Basra

1 Pro-Iran Incident

 

1 IED

 

 

 

 

Dhi Qar

3 Pro-Iran Incidents

 

3 IEDs

 

 

 

 

Diwaniya

1 Pro-Iran Incident

 

1 IED

 

 

 

 

Diyala

14 Incidents

16 Killed

4 Civilians

12 ISF

22 Wounded

1 Civilian

21 ISF

 

11 Shootings

3 IEDs

34.5 incidents/month

30.0 incidents/month

30.6 incidents/month

22.8 incidents/month

Kirkuk

12/1 Pro-Iran Incidents

6 Killed

6 ISF

12 Wounded

1 Peshmerga

2 Civilians

9 ISF

 

4 Shootings

4 IEDs

1 Rockets

36.5 incidents/month

18.6 incidents/month

13.9 incidents/month

11.6 incidents/month

Muthanna

5 Pro-Iran Incidents

 

5 IEDs

 

 

 

 

Ninewa

7/3 Pro-Iran Incidents

1 Killed

1 Hashd

 

3 Shootings

3 Rockets

1 Mortar

20.0 incidents/month

14.0 incidents/month

10.6 incidents/month

8.4 incidents/month

Salahaddin

7/2 Pro-Iran Incidents

4 Killed

4 Civilians

4 Wounded

1 Civilian

3 ISF

 

4 Shootings

1 IED

1 Sticky Bomb

3 Drones

21.7 incidents/month

10.6 incidents/month

11.2 incidents/month

11.5 incidents/month

 

SOURCES

 

Agence France Presse, "Attacks on Iraq political party's HQ, Green Zone raise security fears," 1/15/22

 

Asharq Al-Awsat, "Coalition: 2 Armed Drones Shot Down at Baghdad Airport," 1/3/22

 

Bas News, "Iraqi Sunni MP Survives Assassination in Baghdad," 1/16/22

- “KDP Office in Baghdad Attacked,” 1/13/22

- “KDP Official Survives Assassination Attempt in Baghdad,” 1/14/22

 

eKurd, "Explosions hit two Kurdish-owned banks in Iraqi capital Baghdad," 1/17/22

 

Al Monitor, "Baghdad airport hit with rockets, no one hurt," 1/28/22

 

NINA, "An Explosive Device Explodes Near A Mosque, North Of Babylon," 1/15/22

- "A Member Of PMF Injured North Of Babylon By An IED Explosion," 1/14/22

 

NRT, "Coalition Airbase Comes Under Attack Again In Anbar," 1/5/22

- "Drones Shot Down Targeting Coalition Airbase In Anbar," 1/4/22

- "Eleven Killed In ISIS Attack In Diyala," 1/21/22

- "Rocket Launcher Discovered After

- "Rockets Fired NE Of Fallujah, Likely Targeting Parliament Speaker's Guesthouse," 1/26/22

 

Al Sumaria, "Targeting the office of the second deputy speaker of parliament in Kirkuk," 1/19/22

- "Urgent - 3 people were killed and injured as a result of a war remnant explosion in Babylon," 1/28/22

- "Urgent - An attack on Al-Sadr's Baladiyat headquarters, east of Baghdad … with Molotov cocktails," 1/26/22

 

Xinhua, “Bomb attacks target headquarters of 2 Sunni parliamentary parties in Baghdad,” 1/14/22

 

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