Islamic State Fails To Deliver Ramadan Offensive In Iraq

 

Ramadan ended and the Islamic State failed to launch its annual offensive. This was the first time since 2003 this didn’t happen and marks the latest sign that the insurgency is disappearing in Iraq.

 

The Islamic State did increase incidents in April compared to March but the difference was marginal. In April there were a total of 16 incidents reported in the media. That compared to 9 in March and 17 in February and 25 in January. Attacks steadily declined throughout 2022 and that trend continues into 2023.

 

April’s incidents took place in Anbar (1), Baghdad (1), Diyala (3), Irbil (2), Kirkuk (5), Ninewa (3), and Salahaddin (1).

 

They led to 6 dead and 8 wounded. 1 civilian, 1 Hashd al-Shaabi and 4 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) were killed while 3 Hashd and 5 civilians were injured. All five provinces which saw casualties were in single digits.

 

The only surprise during the month was an IED in Kirkuk city at the end of the month which left 1 policeman dead. This was the first attack within an urban area during the year. IS has lost all its networks into Iraq’s cities which made this a rare occurrence.

 

The other attacks were your usual mix of shootings, assaults on checkpoints and bombings in Iraq’s rural areas.

 

Out of the 16 incidents 3 were offensive in nature. The Islamic State made a probing attack upon the Peshmerga’s defense in the Makhmour district of Ninewa, and there were two incidents in western Diyala where IS is rarely active. This showed how little the insurgency is able to do at this time in Iraq.

 

Each month brings new evidence that the Islamic State is on its death knell in Iraq. The promised rebuilding after its defeat in the war in 2017 has failed to materialize. It is now isolated and has no real impact upon the country. No Ramadan offensive is just another example of how it has fallen.

 

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province	Apr 1-7	Apr 8-14	Apr 15-21	Apr 22-28	Apr 29-30	Totals
Anbar	-	1	-	-	-	1
Baghdad	-	1	1	-	-	1
Diyala	-	-	3	-	-	3
Irbil	-	-	-	2	-	2
Kirkuk	3	-	1	-	1	5
Ninewa	1	2	-	-	-	3
Salahaddin	1	-	-	-	-	1
TOTAL	5	4	5	2	1	16

 

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province	Apr 1-7	Apr 8-14	Apr 15-21	Apr 22-28	Apr 22-28	Totals
Diyala	-	-	2 (2K)	-	-	2 (2K)
Irbil	-	-	-	1 (1K)	-	1 (1K)
Kirkuk	4 (1K, 3W)	-	1 (1K)	-	1 (1K)	6 (3K, 3W)
Ninewa	2 (2W)	1 (1W)	-	-	-	3 (3W)
Salahaddin	2 (2W)	-	-	-	-	2 (2W)
TOTAL	8 (1K, 7W)	1 (1W)	3 (3K)	1 (1K)	1 (1K)	14 (6K, 8W)

 

Security In Iraq 2022-23

Week	Security Incidents (Total/By IS)	Dead (Total/By IS)	Wounded (Total/By IS)
Jan 1-7	18/9	3	4
Jan 8-14	35/21	3	18
Jan 15-21	12/5	17	12
Jan 22-28	16/3	8	19
Jan 29-31	6/2	2	6
JAN	87/41	33	59
Feb 1-7	11/3	1	10
Feb 8-14	14/6	8	3
Feb 15-21	9/1	-	11
Feb 22-28	8/4	1	5
FEB	42/14	10	29
Mar 1-7	7/3	1	-
Mar 8-14	18/3/1	6	5
Mar 15-21	10/4	5	6
Mar 22-28	6/1	7	4
Mar 29-31	4/1	-	5
MAR	46/12/1	19	21
Apr 1-7	16/8	-	6
Apr 8-14	21/7	8	25
Apr 15-21	22/2	10	22
Apr 22-28	44/4	14	44
Apr 29-30	6/1	2	6
APR	111/22	34	103
May 1-7	31/3	8	25
May 8-14	9/2	2	7
May 15-21	18/6	10	6
May 22-28	13/1	21	11
May 29-31	2/1	-	2
MAY	73/13	41	51
Jun 1-7	6/2	-	8
Jun 8-14	12/4	1	9
Jun 15-21	10/2	5	2
Jun 22-28	12/6	1	14
Jun 29-30	-	-	-
JUN	40/14	7	33
Jul 1-7	7/1	6	11
Jul 8-14	3	-	2
Jul 15-21	11/2	14	16
Jul 22-28	18/7	9	21
Jul 29-31	4	4	4
JUL	43/6	33	54
Aug 1-7	9/1	6	15
Aug 8-14	14	2	14
Aug 15-21	7/2	-	6
Aug 22-28	23/4	14	15
Aug 29-31	4	2	4
AUG	57/7/1	24	54
Sep 1-7	11/1	3	20
Sep 8-14	5	-	12
Sep 15-21	12	4	14
Sep 22-28	10/2 M	2	16
Sep 29-30	3/1 M	-	2
SEP	41/1/3 M	9	64
Oct 1-7	9/2 M	6	16
Oct 8-14	8/2/1 M	5	19
Oct 15-21	6	4	7
Oct 22-28	3	2	1
Oct 29-31	2	-	2
OCT	28/2/3 M	17	45
Nov 1-7	7	1	3
Nov 8-14	6	1	8
Nov 15-21	8	7	17
Nov 22-28	2	1	-
Nov 29-30	-	-	-
NOV	23	10	28
Dec 1-7	13/1	6	11
Dec 8-14	6	7	8
Dec 15-21	6	29	15
Dec 22-28	6	-	4
Dec 29-31	2	-	-
DEC	33/1	42	38
Jan 1-7	7	4	2
Jan 8-14	6/1	5	2
Jan 15-21	11/1	2	7
Jan 22-28	5/2	1	2
Jan 29-31	1	-	2
JAN	29/4	12	15
Feb 1-7	6/2	1	5
Feb 8-14	1	-	2
Feb 15-21	4	4	8
Feb 22-28	9/1	7	3
FEB	20/3	12	18
Mar 1-7	3	10	4
Mar 8-14	2	2	1
Mar 15-21	2	1	3
Mar 22-28	1	2	-
Mar 29-31	1	3	-
MAR	9	18	8
Apr 1-7	5	1	7
Apr 8-14	4	-	1
Apr 15-21	5	3	-
Apr 22-28	2	1	-
Apr 29-30	1	1	-
APR	16	6	8

 

SOURCES

 

NINA, "The Army Repels A Terrorist Attack East Of Baquba," 4/18/23

- "An IED explodes on a security patrol in Baquba. No injuries reported," 4/15/23

 

Shafaq News, "Peshmerga forces announce repelling an attack by ISIS militants near the Kurdistan Region," 4/8/23

- "A policeman died of his injures after responding to an attempted bombing in Kirkuk," 4/29/23