Tuesday, October 3, 2023

Iraq Benefits From Large Jump In Oil Prices In Sep


Iraq is the most oil dependent country in the world so when oil prices rise like they did in September it’s good news.

 

Oil exports have hovered around 3.4 million barrels a day since July. That’s impressive because since March the Iraq-Turkey pipeline has been shut down by Ankara which is mad at losing an arbitration case with Baghdad. Iraq has been able to increase production and exports through the south as compensation. The Basra pipelines are at capacity however which is why exports have flatlined.

 

What has changed recently is the sharp rise in oil prices partially due to OPEC+ cutting production. That led to one barrel of Iraqi oil selling for $92.05 in September, the highest since August 2022. In comparison, the year Iraqi crude has been averaging $77.84 per barrel.

 

The result is a 13 month high in revenue with the country earning $9.49 billion. From December 2022 to June 2023 Iraq had been making around $7 billion a month. That changed in July when it passed the $8 billion mark and has continued to go up since then.

 

Iraq just passed the largest budget in its history with a huge projected deficit. Baghdad therefore needs to make as much money as it can while the market is favorable to cover its huge bills.

 

Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2020-2022

Month

Avg Export (Mil)

Avg Price

Earnings (Bil)

Jan 2020

3.306

$60.14

$6.163

Feb

3.391

$51.37

$5.053

Mar

3.391

$32.73

$2.962

Apr

3.438

$13.80

$1.51

May

3.212

$21.00

$2.136

Jun

2.816

$33.86

$2.871

Jul

2.763

$40.70

$3.492

Aug

2.597

$43.69

$3.492

Sep

2.613

$40.40

$3.173

Oct

2.876

$38.48

$3.457

Nov

2.709

$41.77

$3.404

Dec

2.846

$47.76

$4.235

2020 Avg

2.996

$38.80

$3.493

Jan 2021

2.868

$53.29

$4.765

Feb

2.96

$60.33

$5.013

Mar

2.946

$63.32

$5.787

Apr

2.947

$62.77

$5.549

May

2.899

$65.84

$5.917

Jun

2.892

$70.77

$6.143

Jul

2.918

$72.00

$6.476

Aug

3.054

$69.01

$6.553

Sep

3.081

$73.32

$6.777

Oct

3.12

$79.27

$7.666

Nov

3.272

$77.33

$7.611

Dec

3.277

$72.80

$7.391

2021 Avg

3.019

$68.33

$6.303

Jan 2022

3.203

$83.82

$8.323

Feb

3.314

$92.08

$8.544

Mar

3.244

$110.09

$10.913

Apr

3.38

$104.09

$10.554

May

3.3

$111.79

$11.44

Jun

3.373

$113.70

$11.505

Jul

3.303

$103.60

$10.608

Aug

3.286

$96.05

$9.784

Sep

3.292

$89.56

$8.845

Oct

3.382

$88.31

$9.258

Nov

3.329

$82.41

$8.23

Dec

3.332

$73.64

$7.709

2022 Avg

3.311

$95.76

$9.63

Jan

3.266

$75.69

$7.663

Feb

3.184

$76.75

$7.081

Mar

3.255

$73.43

$7.26

Apr

3.288

$79.04

$7.699

May

3.305

$71.49

$7.306

Jun

3.335

$71.11

$7.115

Jul

3.444

$77.69

$8.293

Aug

3.423

$83.35

$8.846

Sep

3.4

$92.05

$9.49

2023 Avg

3.322

$77.84

$7.861

 

SOURCES

Xinhua, “Iraq exports over 103 mln barrels of crude oil in Sept.,” 10/1/23

 

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