Iraq is the most oil dependent country in the world so when oil prices rise like they did in September it’s good news.
Oil exports have hovered around 3.4 million barrels a day since July. That’s impressive because since March the Iraq-Turkey pipeline has been shut down by Ankara which is mad at losing an arbitration case with Baghdad. Iraq has been able to increase production and exports through the south as compensation. The Basra pipelines are at capacity however which is why exports have flatlined.
What has changed recently is the sharp rise in oil prices partially due to OPEC+ cutting production. That led to one barrel of Iraqi oil selling for $92.05 in September, the highest since August 2022. In comparison, the year Iraqi crude has been averaging $77.84 per barrel.
The result is a 13 month high in revenue with the country earning $9.49 billion. From December 2022 to June 2023 Iraq had been making around $7 billion a month. That changed in July when it passed the $8 billion mark and has continued to go up since then.
Iraq just passed the largest budget in its history with a huge projected deficit. Baghdad therefore needs to make as much money as it can while the market is favorable to cover its huge bills.
Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2020-2022
|
Month |
Avg Export (Mil) |
Avg Price |
Earnings (Bil) |
|
Jan 2020 |
3.306 |
$60.14 |
$6.163 |
|
Feb |
3.391 |
$51.37 |
$5.053 |
|
Mar |
3.391 |
$32.73 |
$2.962 |
|
Apr |
3.438 |
$13.80 |
$1.51 |
|
May |
3.212 |
$21.00 |
$2.136 |
|
Jun |
2.816 |
$33.86 |
$2.871 |
|
Jul |
2.763 |
$40.70 |
$3.492 |
|
Aug |
2.597 |
$43.69 |
$3.492 |
|
Sep |
2.613 |
$40.40 |
$3.173 |
|
Oct |
2.876 |
$38.48 |
$3.457 |
|
Nov |
2.709 |
$41.77 |
$3.404 |
|
Dec |
2.846 |
$47.76 |
$4.235 |
|
2020 Avg |
2.996 |
$38.80 |
$3.493 |
|
Jan 2021 |
2.868 |
$53.29 |
$4.765 |
|
Feb |
2.96 |
$60.33 |
$5.013 |
|
Mar |
2.946 |
$63.32 |
$5.787 |
|
Apr |
2.947 |
$62.77 |
$5.549 |
|
May |
2.899 |
$65.84 |
$5.917 |
|
Jun |
2.892 |
$70.77 |
$6.143 |
|
Jul |
2.918 |
$72.00 |
$6.476 |
|
Aug |
3.054 |
$69.01 |
$6.553 |
|
Sep |
3.081 |
$73.32 |
$6.777 |
|
Oct |
3.12 |
$79.27 |
$7.666 |
|
Nov |
3.272 |
$77.33 |
$7.611 |
|
Dec |
3.277 |
$72.80 |
$7.391 |
|
2021 Avg |
3.019 |
$68.33 |
$6.303 |
|
Jan 2022 |
3.203 |
$83.82 |
$8.323 |
|
Feb |
3.314 |
$92.08 |
$8.544 |
|
Mar |
3.244 |
$110.09 |
$10.913 |
|
Apr |
3.38 |
$104.09 |
$10.554 |
|
May |
3.3 |
$111.79 |
$11.44 |
|
Jun |
3.373 |
$113.70 |
$11.505 |
|
Jul |
3.303 |
$103.60 |
$10.608 |
|
Aug |
3.286 |
$96.05 |
$9.784 |
|
Sep |
3.292 |
$89.56 |
$8.845 |
|
Oct |
3.382 |
$88.31 |
$9.258 |
|
Nov |
3.329 |
$82.41 |
$8.23 |
|
Dec |
3.332 |
$73.64 |
$7.709 |
|
2022 Avg |
3.311 |
$95.76 |
$9.63 |
|
Jan |
3.266 |
$75.69 |
$7.663 |
|
Feb |
3.184 |
$76.75 |
$7.081 |
|
Mar |
3.255 |
$73.43 |
$7.26 |
|
Apr |
3.288 |
$79.04 |
$7.699 |
|
May |
3.305 |
$71.49 |
$7.306 |
|
Jun |
3.335 |
$71.11 |
$7.115 |
|
Jul |
3.444 |
$77.69 |
$8.293 |
|
Aug |
3.423 |
$83.35 |
$8.846 |
|
Sep |
3.4 |
$92.05 |
$9.49 |
|
2023 Avg |
3.322 |
$77.84 |
$7.861 |
SOURCES
Xinhua, “Iraq exports over 103 mln barrels of crude oil in Sept.,” 10/1/23
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