Study Of 3 Districts Of Iraq Dealing With Climate Change

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Iraq is facing an environmental crisis with no end in sight. The country is beset by droughts, rising temperatures, desertification, and dust storms. The World Bank counted 15 natural disasters in Iraq over the last 30 years due to climate change. The Berghof Foundation did a study of three districts to look at how things are developing at the local level in the country.

 

The report begins with some devastating numbers on how Iraq’s environment is changing. Water from rain and rivers has delined which led to a 70% drop in wheat production. 40% of households raising livestock have lost their animals. Iraq’s water supply has decline 30% since 1980. The gap between water supply and demand is around 5 billion cubic meters and is expected to rise to 11 billion by 2035. There are plenty of other similar statistics available. They all point to the situation getting worse with no real improvements coming anytime soon.

 

The heart of the Berghof paper studied the Makhmour and Tal Afar districts in Ninewa and Al-Rifai in Dhi Qar.

 

Makhmour is a farming district which is also part of the disputed territories with split administration between Baghdad and Irbil. After 2003 it was taken over by the Kurdistan Democratic Party which expanded its influence during the war versus the Islamic State. After the 2017 Kurdistan independence referendum the central government took back control. The administration is now split between the two which causes all kinds of problems with split authority and contradictory rules. What unites the populations is their complaints about poor government services. No one is satisfied with the levels of water, electricity, etc.

 

Climate change became apparent in Makhmour in 2019 with a rise in temperatures, drought and desertification. The amount of land, pastures and water have declined as a result. The Zab River is a major tributary through the district. It has dropped so much that people can now walk across it. Water quality is also an issue. There have been wildfires that made the situation worse.

 

The government started a water project in the south picking 30 farmers to get irrigation but because of drought and the lack of rainfall there wasn’t enough water. That increased tensions between the population. This is just one of many examples people point to when they complain about the administration being ineffective.

 

Farming overall is facing increasing difficulties in Makhmour. Harvests are down. Costs have increased. Higher temperatures are making it more difficult for people to work the land. Livestock owners have to buy food rather than use natural pastures which cuts into their income. People are having to invest more money into wells to get water. This is all leading many to leave their land to look for jobs elsewhere.

 

The Rifai district in Dhi Qar has faced higher temperatures, longer droughts, desertification and growth of sand dunes and dust storms. Water levels on the Gharraf river are down. The quality of water is getting worse due to rising saline levels. That has led to a drop in harvests for years.

 

Like in Makhmour no one has anything good to say about the government in Rifai. The district started water quotas for each village but people have complained no one is getting enough as a result. That has led to people ignoring the rules and overuse which has increased tribal conflicts. Sometimes those have become violent.

 

Not only have people left their homes and moved to other areas looking for work, but young people have dropped out of school and university as well to look for means to support their families. Some have turned to the drug trade which is a growing concern throughout Iraq.

 

Tal Afar is another disputed territory. It has been divided between Shiite and Sunni Turkmen, Arabs and Kurds. There have been tensions between them since 2003. Like Makhmour part of the district is run by Kurdistan and the rest by Baghdad. Both administrations tend to be ignored by the populace.

 

The Water Ministry offered low interest loans to farmers to dig wells but there was little regulation. There’s also a water pipeline through the district which is not protected by the security forces so it is often illegally tapped into. The Agriculture Ministry decides which farms get to use government subsidized fertilizer based upon old land estimates which people claim is unfair.

 

The district has had a drought for three years. Ironically when rainfall does come it has led to floods because the land can’t absorb the water. This has led to a decrease in farming. The district now has to import food which has increased prices. This comes as people’s buying power has declined due to a drop in the value of the dinar.

 

The Berghof Foundation paints a picture of Iraq as a county with growing trouble but no realistic solutions being offered. Climate change is having a devastating effect. The government has offered policies but none of them have worked. Projects have failed due to bad administration, a lack of money and the scarcity of water. Laws and regulations are regularly ignored. Agriculture is failing and displacement and migration to the cities is increasing. The unexpected consequences are local conflicts which sometime break out into fighting and criminality through the drug trade.

 

SOURCE

 

Berghof Foundation, “Climate change effects on conflict dynamics in Iraq Study of Makhmur, Tal Afar, and Al-Rifai districts,” October 2023