On January 29 an Iraqi government spokesman said that Prime Minister Mohammed al-Sudani wants the U.S. led Coalition to leave Iraq by the end of his term in office. This came after the first meeting between Baghdad and Washington to discuss a withdrawal. The question is whether Iraq is serious about this request or just playing politics with the issue.
The end of December was the first time the premier talked about the Coalition departing the country. His statements were vague at first as he said he wanted to start moving towards a withdrawal. This came after the Biden administration carried out a retaliatory strike upon Kataib Hezbollah for wounding three U.S. soldiers in Irbil. In January the PM announced a committee would be formed to talk about the issue during a ceremony to commemorate the deaths of Iranian General Soleimani and Hashd leader Abu Muhandis.
The circumstances surrounding Sudani’s statements raise questions about his sincerity. The first time he talked about withdrawal was after a U.S. attack upon his country which invoked anger amongst factions within his government. The second time was in front of a crowd of pro-Iran groups who have been pushing for the end of the U.S. presence since the occupation days. It would appear he was talking about withdrawal to appease those elements.
That seemed to be confirmed in an article in Politico. It got a hold of a State Department cable from January 2024 that said Sudani’s advisor told Americans officials that he wanted the U.S. troops to stay and that he was only talking about them leaving to calm down various parties.
His actual steps towards getting the U.S. out are also not rushed. For instance on January 9 the government sent out a text message asking Iraqis whether they supported or opposed the Coalition being in Iraq. The country’s elite are removed from the public and generally non-responsive to their needs so this was pure political theater. Then in mid-January Baghdad said it would form a committee to hold talks over withdrawal. Iraqi committees are notorious for doing nothing. If the PM was serious about having the U.S. leave he could have the cabinet issue a bill to be sent to parliament to officially request them to go but that hasn’t happened. Instead it’s all talk about having talks.
The U.S. could end up leaving Iraq in the end. The Islamic State is barely active in the country today. The government is also one of the closest to Iran since 2003. That being said it could be embarrassing for Iraq to have the U.S. exit under the current circumstances where elements of the government’s security forces aligned with Iran are attacking Iraqi bases that house U.S. troops nearly every day. That would show violence was the way to create policy. Iraq also relies upon the Americans on economic issues which could be complicated. The prime minister’s actions also show no urgency so if the Americans were to depart it is not going to be anytime soon.
SOURCES
Agence France Presse, “Washington, Baghdad open talks on foreign troops in Iraq,” 1/27/24
Chalak, Chenar, “Coalition mission will end during current cabinet: Iraqi govt spox,” Rudaw, 1/29/24
Al Hurra, “After Al-Sudani’s statements .. Is Iraq able to abandon the international coalition?” 12/28/23
- “Poitico: Al-Sudani informed US officials of his desire to negotiate for US forces to remain in Iraq,” 1/11/24
Al-Nashmi, Fadhel, “Iraqi Govt Turns to Survey to Ask Citizens about Continuing Mission of Int’l Coalition,” Asharq Al-Awsat, 1/9/24
NINA, “PM announces the formation of a bilateral committee to schedule the withdrawal of international coalition forces form Iraq/More,” 1/5/24
Reuters, “Iraq, US agree to set up committee to start talks on future of US-led coalition,” 1/25/24
Xinhua, “Iraqi PM reiterates determination to end int’l coalition’s presence,” 1/15/24
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