Pro-Iran groups escalated their attacks upon U.S. troops in Iraq in the middle of January. The Islamic State on the other hand, is back to carrying out semi-regulation operations.
From January 15-21 there were 10 security incidents reported in Iraq in the media. That compared to 7 the week before and 10 the first week of the month.
The Islamic State were responsible for 4 of those incidents. They have carried out 4 incidents in 4 of the last 5 weeks. This is an increase from the end of 2023 when the group went dormant for 5 weeks which was a first since 2003. 4 incidents is still a miniscule amount compared to the past.
In Anbar IS fired at a checkpoint in the Haditha district that killed 3 soldiers and wounded 1 more. There was also a security sweep by the Hashd that came upon a group of insurgents leading to a gun battle that left 2 Hashd dead.
In northwest Ninewa militants fired at two civilians leaving them injured.
Finally in Ninewa another security operation led to a tribal Hashd fighter being killed.
The attack in Haditha appears to be the only offensive act during the week. The others were in response to the government forces or likely aimed at intimidating locals.
Pro-Iran groups carried out 6 attacks including one major one.
In Diyala the Islamic Resistance an umbrella organization for factions aligned with Iran claimed it shot down a U.S. drone. In Salahaddin a drone from one of these groups crashed.
Four drones were also shot down by U.S. forces around Irbil city. The area has been consistently targeted because of U.S. troops are stationed there.
The Resistance claimed another attack upon Israeli forces in the Golan Heights. This is an attempt by these groups to say they are defending Palestinians and hitting Israel itself rather than just its ally the United States. They began attacks on Israel at the start of January.
The big story of the week was 15-20 ballistic missiles being fired at the Ain al-Asad airbase in Anbar. 2 U.S. soldiers and one Iraqi one were wounded as a result. The Resistance had to expect casualties from using such heavy ordinance which was a major escalation.
No rockets or missiles have been used since the third week of December when Asad was also hit two separate times. That could have been because of U.S. warnings of major retaliation if they didn’t halt.
An Iraqi politician told Al-Mada that the Tehran aligned factions believe that they can force the U.S. to withdraw from Iraq. That’s not going to happen without an official request by the Iraqi government which is not making any real effort to do so despite various public statements. Instead the Americans are likely to carry out targeted assassinations of Hashd commanders which has already happened.
At the start of January for instance, the deputy commander for Baghdad Belt Operations for the Hashd and a member of Harakat Al-Nujaba was killed by the U.S. in Baghdad. He was said to be responsible for planning attacks on U.S. troops.
The factions are stuck between feeling like they have to respond to the Gaza War and a false sense of superiority towards the Americans. With that background things could easily get worse.
Security Incidents In Iraq By Province
|
Province |
Jan 1-7 |
Jan 8-14 |
Jan 15-21 |
|
Anbar |
2 Pro-Iran |
- |
3/1 Pro-Iran |
|
Baghdad |
1 |
1 |
- |
|
Diyala |
- |
1 |
1 Pro-Iran |
|
Irbil |
2 Pro-Iran |
2 Pro-Iran |
2 Pro-Iran |
|
Israel |
2 Pro-Iran |
- |
1 Pro-Iran |
|
Ninewa |
- |
1 Pro-Iran |
1 |
|
Salahaddin |
3 |
2 |
2/1 Pro-Iran |
|
TOTAL |
10/6 Pro-Iran |
7/3 Pro-Iran |
10/6 Pro-Iran |
Casualties In Iraq By Province
|
Province |
Jan 1-7 |
Jan 8-14 |
Jan 15-21 |
|
Anbar |
- |
- |
9 (5K, 4W) |
|
Baghdad |
4 (4W) |
|
- |
|
Diyala |
- |
2 (2W) |
- |
|
Ninewa |
- |
- |
2 (2W) |
|
Salahaddin |
10 (5K, 5W) |
4 (3K, 1W) |
1 (1K) |
|
TOTAL |
14 (9K, 5W) |
6 (3K, 3W) |
12 (6K, 6W) |
Security In Iraq 2022-23
|
Week |
Security Incidents (Total/By IS) |
Dead (Total/By IS) |
Wounded (Total/By IS) |
|
JAN 2022 |
87/41 Pro-Iran |
33 |
59 |
|
FEB |
42/14 Pro-Iran |
10 |
29 |
|
MAR |
46/12/1 Pro-Iran |
19 |
21 |
|
APR |
111/22 Pro-Iran |
34 |
103 |
|
MAY |
73/13 Pro-Iran |
41 |
51 |
|
JUN |
40/14 Pro-Iran |
7 |
33 |
|
JUL |
43/6 Pro-Iran |
33 |
54 |
|
AUG |
57/7/1 Pro-Iran |
24 |
54 |
|
SEP |
41/1/3 M |
9 |
64 |
|
OCT |
28/2/3 M |
17 |
45 |
|
NOV |
23 |
10 |
28 |
|
DEC |
33/1 Pro-Iran |
42 |
38 |
|
JAN 2023 |
29/4 Pro-Iran |
12 |
15 |
|
Feb 1-7 |
6/2 Pro-Iran |
1 |
5 |
|
Feb 8-14 |
1 |
- |
2 |
|
Feb 15-21 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
|
Feb 22-28 |
9/1 Pro-Iran |
7 |
3 |
|
FEB |
20/3 Pro-Iran |
12 |
18 |
|
Mar 1-7 |
3 |
10 |
4 |
|
Mar 8-14 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
|
Mar 15-21 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
|
Mar 22-28 |
1 |
2 |
- |
|
Mar 29-31 |
1 |
3 |
- |
|
MAR |
9 |
18 |
8 |
|
Apr 1-7 |
5 |
1 |
7 |
|
Apr 8-14 |
4 |
- |
1 |
|
Apr 15-21 |
5 |
3 |
- |
|
Apr 22-28 |
2 |
1 |
- |
|
Apr 29-30 |
1 |
1 |
- |
|
APR |
16 |
6 |
8 |
|
May 1-7 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
|
May 8-14 |
6 |
4 |
3 |
|
May 15-21 |
3 |
2 |
6 |
|
May 22-28 |
3 |
1 |
3 |
|
May 29-31 |
2 |
- |
3 |
|
MAY |
15 |
8 |
14 |
|
Jun 1-7 |
- |
- |
- |
|
Jun 8-14 |
4 |
7 |
4 |
|
Jun 15-21 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
|
Jun 22-28 |
4 |
2 |
4 |
|
Jun 29-30 |
- |
- |
- |
|
JUN |
10 |
10 |
10 |
|
Jul 1-7 |
1 |
- |
- |
|
Jul 8-14 |
3 |
2 |
1 |
|
Jul 15-21 |
2 |
- |
1 |
|
Jul 22-28 |
2 |
- |
2 |
|
Jul 29-31 |
3/2 Pro-Iran |
- |
- |
|
JUL |
11/2 Pro-Iran |
2 |
4 |
|
Aug 1-7 |
4 |
- |
4 |
|
Aug 8-14 |
2 |
1 |
3 |
|
Aug 15-21 |
2 |
- |
5 |
|
Aug 22-28 |
2 |
- |
2 |
|
Aug 29-31 |
3/1 Pro-Iran |
1 |
9 |
|
AUG |
13/1 Pro-Iran |
2 |
23 |
|
Sep 1-7 |
1 |
- |
1 |
|
Sep 8-14 |
1 |
1 |
- |
|
Sep 15-21 |
2 |
- |
4 |
|
Sep 22-28 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Sep 29-30 |
- |
- |
- |
|
SEP |
5 |
2 |
6 |
|
Oct 1-7 |
- |
- |
- |
|
Oct 8-14 |
- |
- |
- |
|
Oct 15-21 |
7 Pro-Iran |
- |
- |
|
Oct 22-28 |
7/5 Pro-Iran |
- |
8 |
|
Oct 29-31 |
3 Pro-Iran |
- |
- |
|
OCT |
17/15 Pro-Iran |
- |
8 |
|
Nov 1-7 |
11/9 |
4 |
2 |
|
Nov 8-14 |
12/10 |
- |
3 |
|
Nov 15-21 |
6 Pro-Iran |
- |
8 Amer |
|
Nov 22-28 |
4 Pro-Iran |
- |
- |
|
Nov 29-30 |
2 |
11 |
16 |
|
NOV |
35/29 Pro-Iran |
15 |
29 |
|
Dec 1-7 |
10/8 Pro-Iran |
1 |
9 |
|
Dec 8-14 |
8/6 Pro-Iran |
- |
2 |
|
Dec 15-21 |
6/2 Pro-Iran |
1 |
2 |
|
Dec 22-28 |
7/6 Pro-Iran |
- |
3 US |
|
Dec 29-31 |
4 Pro-Iran |
|
|
|
DEC |
35/26 Pro-Iran |
2K |
16W |
|
Jan 1-7 |
10/6 Pro-Iran |
5 |
9 |
|
Jan 8-14 |
7/3 Pro-Iran |
3 |
3 |
|
Jan 15-21 |
10/6 Pro-Iran |
6 |
6 |
SOURCES
Agence France Presse, "Dozen missiles fired at US-led coalition in Iraq's Al-Asad airbase," 1/20/24
Buratha News, "The PMF mourns a member who was martyred in a clash with ISIS in the Anbar desert," 1/18/24
Farrell, James, "At Least 2 U.S. Soldiers Injured In Attack On Iraqi Base, Report Says," Forbes, 1/20/24
Lawrence, J.P., "No US troops injured in latest rocket strike at Iraq base," Stars and Stripes, 12/21/23
Al Mada, “The factions continue to embarrass the government. They expect a repeat of the scenario of America’s escape from Afghanistan,” 1/21/24
Mahmoud, Sinan, "Three soldiers killed in attack in western Iraq," The National, 1/15/24
NINA, "A bomb-laden drone shot down near Erbil International Airport," 1/18/24
- "In pictures: A drone crashed on the approaches to the basin of Imam Wais, northeast of Baqubah," 1/18/24
- "Targeting Ain al-Assad base with missiles," 12/20/23
- "Two civilians seriously injured by unidentified gunmen's bullets northwest of Mosul," 1/17/24
Shafaq News, "A bomb-laden drone fell in Salah al-Din," 1/16/24
- "The Iraqi Resistance claims bombing an Israeli military target in the Golan," 1/21/24
- "The Iraqi Resistance claims shooting down an American drone," 1/19/24
- "Security forces kill two terrorists in violent clashes north of Baghdad," 1/11/24
Al Sumaria, “Not a brigade commander .. Who is the Al-Nujaba leader Abu Taqwa who was martyred today?” 1/4/24
Xinhua, “1st LD-Writethru: Drone attack kills 3 paramilitary members in Baghdad,” 1/4/24
- "3 armed drones shot down near U.S. military base in N. Iraq," 1/16/24
- "4 IS militants, tribal fighter killed in N. Iraq," 1/18/24
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