Musings On Iraq In The News

 

I was mentioned in “Iraqi coalition forces ‘won’t be able to defeat Isis’ until summer,” in The Independent, and Breitbart re-did a Rudaw article I was interviewed in. 

Mosul Campaign Day 83, Jan 7, 2017

For the first time new areas of Mosul were freed by the Iraqi forces (ISF). January 6 Muthanna in the northeast was declared freed by the Golden Division, but there was still fighting there the next day. That was followed by Atibaa 1 and 2 and Rafaq being taken next door. The housing district in Hadbaa farther north was also liberated. In the southeast the Salah and Shafaa Hospitals in Wahda were freed by the Federal Police and Rapid Reaction forces, and the adjoining Ghufran neighborhood by the Golden Division. That unit was also securing the roads leading to the Fourth Bridge the southernmost span across the Tigris in Mosul. A spokesman for the Division said that it was only 500 meters away from the bridge. Reuters saw U.S. advisers near the front working with the ISF, coordinating HIMAR rocket fire from the Qayara base south of the city. Muthanna, Rafaq, Hadbaa, and Wahda had been entered in November and December and been declared freed several times before. The other three neighborhoods were new however.

A member of the Ninewa council claimed that 88% of east Mosul was how under Iraqi control. That might to be too optimistic, but more of the city was now occupied by government forces. He said Islamic State units were still in Sukar, Baladiyat, Hadbaa, Shurta and Mosul University in the east.

As usual there were Islamic State attacks throughout the city. 2 Suicide bombers were killed and 4 car bombs destroyed in Ghufron, and 3 more suicide bombers in Wahda as well. 3 vehicles bombs in Rafaq, 6 in the southeast, and 2 in Hadbaa were blown up, and 8 more dismantled in the last area. 9 people were killed by mortar fire, and 11 by rockets.

Coalition or Iraqi air strikes were blamed for several casualties as well. 15 civilians killed and 12 wounded in one incident, and 5 deaths in another.

Finally, there were more stories of Islamic State members and families trying to flee Mosul.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, “CTS liberate 1^st & 2^nd neighborhoods of Ataba east of Mosul,” Iraqi News, 1/7/17

- “Over 60 IS families fled from western side of Mosul,” Iraqi News, 1/7/17

Agence France Presse, “Iraq forces near Tigris River in Mosul,” 1/7/17

Al Alam, “VIDEO: 50 ISIS Terrorists Killed, Al Muthanna Recaptured in eastern Mosul,” 1/7/17

Bas News, “Iraqi Forces Closest Ever To the Tigris in Mosul,” 1/7/17

- "Iraqi Forces Liberate Further Area in Central Mosul," 1/7/17

BBC, “Mosul battle: Iraqi troops ‘take key district’ from IS,” 1/6/17

Buratha News, “Recent developments in the field during the liberation of Mosul until 16:10 pm: Saturday 07 01 2017,” 1/7/17

Coles, Isabel, “Entering Mosul from north, Iraqi army faces grueling urban combat,” Reuters, 1/7/17

Face Iraq, “Ninewa We Are Coming Operations announced freeing Rafaq and Ghufran on the left coast of Mosul in the fight against terrorism,” 1/7/17

Kalin, Stephen and Rasheed, Ahmed, “Iraqi forces close in on Tigris in Islamic State stronghold Mosul,” Reuters, 1/7/17

Al Maalomah, “Commander of Ninewa Operations: Iraqi troops descended upon Daesh at night,” 1/7/17

- “Federal Police free nine neighborhoods in left coast of Mosul and stresses fully liberate rest of city within 3 days,” 1/7/17

- “Liberation of a number of neighborhoods and killed tens of Daash,” 1/7/17

- “Freed Ghufran neighborhood, former Baath, left coast of Mosul,” 1/7/17

- "Liberation of a number of neighborhoods and killed tens of Daash," 1/7/17

Al Mada, “Army enters Mosul from the north for the first time.. and Daesh attack freed areas with mortars,” 1/8/17

- "Dismantling eight car bombs north Mosul," 1/7/17

- “Federal Police compensate for army setback by taking Salam Hospital from Daesh,” 1/8/17

- "Three suicide bombers killed repelling attack southeast Mosul," 1/7/17

Al Masalah, "The death of 27 civilians in wrong air strike east Mosul," 1/7/17

Mostafa, Mohamed, “Army recaptures eastern Mosul district as anti-IS operations proceed,” Iraqi News, 1/7/17

- “Security forces seize IS command quarters, prisons in eastern Mosul,” Iraqi News, 1/7/17

NINA, “Breaking News…Rapid Reaction Forces Liberate Salam Hospital In Mosul,” 1/6/17

Reuters, “Iraqi forces close in on Tigris in IS stronghold Mosul,” Iraqi News, 1/7/17

Rudaw, “ISIS in Mosul becoming ‘desperate’ as Iraqi forces approach Tigris,” 1/7/17

Salaheddin, Sinan, "Turkish PM visits Iraq amid spat over unauthorized troops," Associated Press, 1/7/17

Shafaaq News, "9 civilians killed in Daesh bombing of Algiers neighborhood in Mosul," 1/17/17

Shafaaq News, "Killing two women and three children in wrong bombing of targets west of Mosul," 1/7/17

- "Urgent..11 people killed in Daesh pounding of residential neighborhood in Mosul," 1/7/17

Al Sumaria, “Member of Nineveh Council: the joint forces tightened their grip almost entirely on left coast of Mosul,” 1/7/17

- “Yarallah: Dawn of Daesh on the fourth bridge in Mosul after our force control the intersection leading to it,” 1/7/17

Xinhua, “Iraqi forces gain ground in Mosul, enter northern city for first time,” 1/7/17

Mosul Campaign Day 82, Jan 6, 2017

The Iraqi forces (ISF) shifted their focus to northeast Mosul on January 6. The 16^th Division seized Mazare neighborhood, while the Golden Division took neighboring Muthanna. That effort began with a surprise night attack into Muthanna that was quickly surrounded. Army brigades also moved into the Hadbaa housing district, which is farther north.

In the southeast the Federal Police finally took the Salam Hospital in Wahda. Next to it the Jund al-Khalifah headquarters of the Islamic State was also seized. The ISF had been targeting the facility since the start of December. Hopefully this meant that the Wahda district in general was cleared of IS elements as well.

Yesterday a Hashd spokesman announced the 6^th stage of its operations in the Tal Afar district. The next day the Hashd took three towns. The insurgents launched a large assault upon the Tal Afar Airport, but were repulsed. The Hashd claimed they secured the Tal Keif road a few days ago, but they continue to shell IS checkpoints along it.

Much has been made of the increased U.S. support for the Mosul campaign. The Americans are not the only nationality involved in the coalition. The French have soldiers deployed with the Iraqi forces as well, and it was reported that it moved some of its artillery from the base in Qayara south of Mosul closer to the front to assist with the new push within the city.

Finally, Agence France Presse was the latest to cover the growing number of people being displaced within Mosul. It talked with a man who escaped west Mosul, which is under control of IS to Intisar in the southeast. He found an abandoned home there and took up residence. The man went on to stay that he did not want to go to a displacement camp calling it a prison because people were not allowed out. Many houses have multiple families inside of them as people are sheltering throughout the city while the battle to liberate it drags on for the fourth month. This process will only continue as the ISF moves deeper into the Mosul.

SOURCES

Al Alam, “Iraqi Army, Popular Forces Advance more in ISIS-Held Mosul City,” 1/6/17

- "Iraqi Forces Thwart ISIS Militants' Attack on Airport near Mosul City," 1/6/17

BBC, "Mosul battle: Iraqi troops 'take key district' from IS," 1/6/17

Buratha News, “Recent developments in the field during the process of liberating Mosul until 18:00 Friday 06 01 2017,” 1/6/17

- “Recent developments in the field during the process of liberating Mosul until 18:30 Friday 06 01 2017,” 1/6/17

Coles, Isabel and Hameed, Saif, “In renewed push, Iraqi forces enter Mosul from north for first time,” Reuters, 1/6/17

Decamme, Guillaume, “For Mosul displaced, shelter is often just down the road,” Agence France Presse, 1/6/17

Face Iraq, “Abdul Wahab al-Saadi: joint forces engaged in heavy fighting for freeing all of the east side of Mosul from Daesh,” 1/6/17

- “French troops deployed artillery guns to hit Daesh strongholds in the center of Mosul,” 1/6/17

- “Military source: forces took control of the road linking the city of Mosul and Tal Skeif,” 1/1/17

- “Security forces continue operations against Daesh terrorists within Ninewa,” 1/6/17

Al Forat, "Federal Police control Salam Hospital in Mosul," 1/6/17

- "Seventh Brigade freed Ahmed and Malah villages southeast of Mosul," 1/6/17

Al Maalomah, "Popular Crowd frees Al Beefij west of Mosul," 1/6/17

- “Security forces free apartments in Hadbaa area north Mosul,” 1/6/17

Al Mada, "Iraqi army frees Mazare district north Mosul," 1/6/17

Al Masalah, “Popular Crowd frees two villages southwest of Mosul,” 1/6/17

Reuters, “Iraqi forces advance against Islamic State in Mosul night raid: spokesman,” 1/6/17

Rudaw, “Iraqi forces cross the Khosr River in east Mosul,” 1/6/17

Mosul Campaign Day 81, Jan 5, 2017

The Wahda district in southeast Mosul was still contested. January 4 the 9^th Division and Federal Police called the neighborhood freed in the morning. At the end of the day fighting was still going on, and the Salam Hospital in the district had not been taken. January 5 the Joint Operations Command said parts of Wahda had been liberated, but continued advances were being held up by snipers. The Federal Police were still 700 meters away from the hospital as well. Salam Hospital was originally taken by the 9^th Division on December 6, but that was a trap set by the Islamic State and the Golden Division had to rescue the soldiers. On December 17 a new push on the facility was made, but that probably stopped when the entire Mosul campaign paused in the middle of the month. It still remains a target of the Iraqi forces (ISF).

January 5 Hadbaa and Kindi in the northeast were attacked. Hadbaa had allegedly been entered several times since November, but none of the stories looked to be true. On December 31 the ISF even claimed that the neighborhood had been freed, another exaggeration.

There was continued clashes in the southeast, and clearing in eastern Mosul and north of the city. The 9^th Division, Federal Police and Rapid Reaction police were in Salam, Palestine, Shaimaa, Dumiz, and Sumer as they have been the last few days. Sumer was declared freed on January 3. The Golden Division was still clearing parts of eastern Mosul they’d liberated, mostly the industrial zone outside of Karama. The northern front was still removing IEDs and booby traps, which they have been doing since November, because they are no longer moving on Mosul.

General Talib Shaghati of the Golden Division declared 65-70% of east Mosul freed. He claimed 44 of 56 districts in the east had been taken. In the middle of December a member of the Ninewa council made a similar statement based upon 30 of 50 neighborhoods being freed. Going through all the previous reporting it looks like 50% of Mosul is currently occupied by the ISF with some of those areas still being contested.

Violence was reported throughout eastern Mosul and outside of it. Two car bombs hit Hadbaa killing 11, with two others being destroyed. Another vehicle bomb in Mithaq left 13 casualties. Five more were destroyed in the southeast. Mortar fire on Wahda left five dead. The Islamic State was also shelling Bakr, Alam, Muharibin, Zuhur, Wahda, and Mithaq with at least 17 fatalities and 13 injured. One photographer was wounded. The insurgents attacked the southern front. IS also released a video of it beheading one victim and drowning another inside the city.

There were more pieces on the Islamic State running into problems. One said that IS stopped paying it fighters, while General Shaghati told the press its leaders and families were fleeing the city. Similar claims have been made since the start of the Mosul campaign in October. So far there are no signs that this has affected the militants’ ability to resist.

Spokesman Ahmed al-Asadi held a press conference about the Hashd’s activities in western Tal Afar. The sixth stage of the liberation of the district was about to begin, but no details about what that entailed were given. The Hashd were also waiting for Prime Minister Haidar Ababi’s orders to enter Mosul. The Hashd have been in a holding pattern outside Tal Afar for weeks now. Baghdad made an agreement with Turkey for the army and police to take the town after Ankara’s repeated complaints and threats about what they would do if the Hashd were to do so. The ISF has shown no sign that they will move on the village however. The Hashd are also to stay out of Mosul out of fear of how that would be interpreted by the population. That means the forces are to stay in place for the foreseeable future. They are obviously getting frustrated leading to statements like these from Asadi.

The Iraq Joint Operations Command lashed out at recent reports about heavy casualties amongst the ISF during the campaign. It stated that such pieces were not only inaccurate, but fabrications affecting Iraqi morale and helping the Islamic State. It singled out one story that the Golden Division was suffering a 50% casualty rate, which threatened the combat effectiveness of the unit. Unlike previous campaigns the Iraqi government is not only not releasing figures on its losses but is actively going after critical reporting. It attacked the United Nations’ casualty figures for November 2016 saying they were exaggerated, and removed embedded reporters with the ISF in Mosul after they ran stories about how tough the fighting was. Baghdad’s case is hurt by the fact that it refuses to release any information about casualties, and its own reporting is dominated by propaganda depicting constant victories. The latter also brings into question whether Iraqi morale is being affected at all by these types of articles since they are a decided minority in the news flow heard every day. Given the constant car bomb attacks, sniper and mortar fire, and IEDs, and slow progress it has made within Mosul it would not be surprising if the ISF were facing heavy casualties, but the truth will likely never be known.

There is more displacement and returns going on inside and outside of Mosul. The Islamic State continued to force people out of their homes near the front to convert them into fighting positions. This was now happening in the northeast after Hadbaa was attacked. Rudaw followed some families that were going back to their homes in Mosul, but noted far more were leaving especially now that the campaign had been renewed. The International Organization for Migration (IOM) counted 132,234 displaced registered with the authorities and aid groups as of January 5. From December 8 to January 5 45,536 people signed up, and from December 29 to January 5 15,942 alone had done so. There are lots more within Mosul who are moving back and forth trying to escape the fighting or the Islamic State that are not registered.

Finally, PBS Newshour had the latest article on the vetting process people go through once they are registered. Every step from when they first come into contact with the Iraqi forces, to when they get to registration areas to the camps they stay in they are screened. There are huge lists of wanted people suspected of being IS members, and claims by people that lead to arrests. Those that get detained are to go before a judge to decide whether they should be further investigated. There are so many people fleeing however that the entire process is backed up. One judge in Qayara south of Mosul said he had a list of more than 40,000 suspects. A Human Rights Watch worker suggested that the government be more transparent by informing families of where their loved ones are, announcing the number of detained, and other steps. That’s unlikely to happen as the Iraqi bureaucracy is run from the top down and is very slow to change. Instead the system will continue as is and slow down more and more.  

PBS also reported that those that have not fled are under duress. It went to a town north of Mosul that was freed in December where the inhabitants decided to stay. They are not allowed out of the village without permission for security reasons, and have no services like electricity or water, and their food supply is running out. People inside Mosul in liberated areas may not be cordoned off by the security forces, but they too are running into deprivations and shortages. The government has attempted to distribute aid to some of these areas, but their efforts have been scattered. As more time passes the situation of these civilians will likely deteriorate as neither the government nor aid groups appear to have the resources to adequately deal with this situation.

SOUCES

Adel, Loaa, "Iraqi forces storm into 3 new neighborhoods in Mosul," Iraqi News, 11/15/16

AIN, “Ninewa We Are Coming: 132 Daash killed and continued advances into the left coast of Mosul [Revised],” 1/5/17

Al Alam, "HORRIFIC VIDEO: ISIS First 2017 Execution Footage," 1/5/17

- “Iraqi Forces Capture 70 Percent of Eastern Mosul from ISIS: Cmdr.,” 1/5/17

- "Iraqi Forces Establish Control over Key Hospital in Western Mosul," 12/6/16

Bas News, “70% of Eastern Mosul Cleared from IS: Official,” 12/12/16

Buratha News, “Recent development in the field during the liberation of Mosul until 18:35 pm Thursday 05 01 2017,” 1/5/17

Emergency Tracking Factsheet 10# - Mosul Operations From 17 October To 5 January,” 1/5/17

Ensor, Josie, “Isil stops paying Mosul fighters’ salaries in hint at funding shortage,” Telegraph, 1/5/17

Face Iraq, “Security forces continue its operation against Daesh terrorists within Ninewa,” 1/5/17

- "Security forces liberated Mithaq, Sumer, Jaffa and stormed Dumiz neighborhood on the left coast of Mosul," 1/3/17

- “Sources: Almost complete cessation of life in areas of right coast of Mosul, warnings of famine such as occurred in Fallujah,” 1/5/17

Al Forat, “Asadi declares near the start of the sixth stage of the liberation of Tal Afar, west of Mosul and the other areas,” 1/5/17

- “Asadi: Popular Crowd awaiting orders by Abadi to enter Mosul,” 1/5/17

- "Ashura Brigades repelled attack by Daesh south of Mosul," 1/5/17

- "Photographer for joint operations command injured in Mosul," 1/5/17

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul, Dec. 17, 2016," 12/17/16

- "Inside Mosul: Jan. 4, 2017," 1/4/17

- "Inside Mosul: Jan. 5, 2017," 1/5/17

Kalin, Stephen and Coles, Isabel, “Iraqi general says 70 percent of east Mosul retaken from Islamic State,” Reuters, 1/5/17

Al Maalomah, “Popular Crowd destroys Daesh criminals near Tal Afar,” 1/5/17

Mohamed, Mostafa, “17 civilians killed in Islamic State shelling east of Mosul: officer,” Iraqi News, 1/5/17

Mostafa, Mohamed, "17 civilians killed in Islamic State shelling east of Mosul: officer," Iraqi News, 1/5/17

NINA, "Int'l Coalition To Bombarded Daesh Sites And Security Forces Free Hadbaa Region North Of Mosul," 12/31/16

- “Joint Special Operations Command: Battle of Mosul comparable to losses in Battles of Anbar and Salahuddin,” 1/4/17

PBS Newshour, “Why Iraqi boys and men are disappearing amid ISIS concerns,” 1/4/17

Perry, Mark, “How Iraq’s Army Could Defeat ISIS in Mosul-But Lose Control of the Country,” Politico, 12/15/16

Roblin, Sebastien, “Baghdad Doesn’t Want You to Know How Many of Its Soldiers Are Dying,” War Is Boring, 1/4/17

Rudaw, “Braving rubble, no services, security risks, some Mosul families return home,” 1/5/17

Al Sumaria, “Counter-Terrorism forces promises surprises in the battle of Mosul,” 1/5/17

Mosul Campaign Day 80, Jan 4, 2017

The two pronged thrust from the east and southeast in Mosul continued. The 9^th Division and Federal police freed Wahda in the southeast. There was one report however that they had not taken the Salam Hospital, which is inside the neighborhood, and another at the end of the day that there was still fighting going on there. The Federal Police also claimed to have cleared Aden and Moalimin, but again there was another statement by the Iraqi forces (ISF) that they were still trying to take the latter. The former had been liberated once before, and Aden, four times. The Golden Division took Siha and Yarmja as well in the east. The Division said it freed Siha at the start of December. The unit was also consolidating its hold over areas it had already seized, namely the industrial districts outside of Karama. Other areas under attack were Judaydat al-Mufti, Muthanna, Salam, Palestine, Shaimaa, Dumiz, and Sumer, which the ISF said they had liberated yesterday. The Iraqi forces have a bad habit of declaring areas freed before they actually are. The Islamic State also has extensive tunnels underneath the city, which it has used to re-infiltrate into neighborhoods.

There were several reported IS counterattacks and casualties. Mithaq was taken yesterday, but today a policeman was killed by gunfire there, and two suicide bombers set off their devices killing 3 and wounding two soldiers. In Wahda a suicide bulldozer bomb detonated leaving 14 dead and 32 injured, a suicide car bomb exploded taking the lives of five and wounding an additional fourteen, and more than three others were destroyed. Sniper fire in Zirahi killed ten, IS beheaded two teenagers in central Mosul accusing them of spying, and a family of five was executed as well. In Moalimin, Sumer, Bakr, and the southeast section of the city several more car bombs were destroyed. The northern front blew up two more vehicle bombs, and one other was knocked out in the Tal Afar district to the west of Mosul.

The commander of the U.S. led Coalition General Steven Townsend told Reuters that the Iraqi forces were coordinating their effort to take Mosul much better now. He said in the first phase of the Battle for Mosul there was little synchronization between units. Now there are meetings every few days between the Iraqi commanders facilitated by the coalition.

Before the second phase of the campaign started there were several reports that U.S. advisers would have a greater role. That was now confirmed. Coalition spokesman Colonel John Dorrian told the press its Special Forces had been inside Mosul to assist the ISF. There are now around 450 Coalition advisers in Iraq from the United States, Australia, New Zealand, France, and other countries. They not only call in air strikes, but also collect intelligence, and help the ISF in other ways as well.

Finally, the Associated Press documented the back and forth of people that is going on inside Mosul. AP talked with two kids who fled Karama when it was attacked by the Iraqi forces. At the same time families were going back to Quds. There is a huge amount of people being displaced within Mosul who are not counted in the figures published by the United Nations or other aid groups because they are on the move and do not register. As the battle has dragged on there are more and more people attempting to escape the fighting. The government has tried to provide buses to ferry people out of conflict zones, as well as food, clothing and other supplies, but these appear to be ad hoc in nature.

SOURCES

AIN, "Cleared Moalimin and Aden in Mosul," 1/4/17,

- “Counterterrorism clearing neighborhoods on left coast of Mosul,” 1/4/17

Associated Press, “At Mosul front, Iraqis fleeing and returning cross paths,” 1/4/17

Bas News, "Iraqi Forces Retake Two More Neighborhoods East of Mosul," 11/17/16

BBC, "Mosul battle: Iraqi special forces enter city limits," 11/1/16

Buratha News, “Recent developments in the field during liberation operation of Mosul until 19:05 pm Wednesday 04 01 2017,” 1/4/17

- “Recent developments in the field during the liberation operation in Mosul until 20:00 Wednesday 04 01 2017,” 1/4/17

Face Iraq, “Security forces liberated Mithaq, Sumer, Jaffa and stormed Dumiz neighborhood on the left coast of Mosul,” 1/3/17

- “Security units continue operations against Daesh terrorists within Nineveh,” 1/4/17

Al Forat, “Federal Police approaching within 900 m of Salam Hospital in south Mosul,” 1/4/17

Hemid, Leyla, "Senior Iraqi Police Commander Killed in Mosul," Bas News, 1/4/17

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul, Dec. 7, 2016," 12/7/16

- “Inside Mosul: Jan. 4, 2017,” 1/4/17

Kalin, Stephen, “Exclusive: Fresh advance in east Mosul to begin within days – U.S. commander,” Reuters, 12/26/16

- “Iraqi forces gaining momentum in Mosul: U.S. coalition chief,” Reuters, 1/4/17

Kalin, Stephen and Coles, Isabel, “More than 2,000 Iraqis a day flee Mosul as military advances,” Reuters, 1/4/17

Al Maalomah, "The martyrdom and wounding of five people, including two soldiers by two suicide bombers east Mosul," 1/4/17

Al Mada, "Anti-terrorism forces free Moalimin neighborhood east Mosul," 11/19/16

- “Joint forces free and roll into five new neighborhoods in east Mosul,” 1/4/17

- "Killing 30 Daesh east Mosul," 1/4/17

Martinez, Luis, “American Military Advisers Have Entered Mosul at Times, US Official Says,” ABC News, 1/4/17

Al Masalah, "Daesh executed an entire family in Mosul," 1/4/17

New Sabah, "Anti-terrorism forces edge up to the Tigris from the Left Coast after the liberation of Akhaa, Zuhur, and Aden," 12/4/16

NINA, "A military source: Completing the liberation of Al-Baker and Aden neighborhoods, and storming the warriors area within the left-coast of the city of Mosul," 11/19/16

Pestano, Andrew, “Iraqi forces draw closer to recapturing Mosul’s city center after taking Mithaq district,” UPI 1/4/17

Rudaw, “Iraqi army in control of eastern suburbs of Mosul after liberating new neighborhoods,” 1/4/17

- “Three-pronged assault on Mosul leaves ISIS stretched thin, says coalition spokesperson,” 1/4/17

Al Sumaria, "Killed and wounded 19 people by a car bomb east Nineveh," 1/4/17

World Bulletin, "2nd massive suicide bombing kills 14 in Iraq's Mosul," 1/4/17

Xinhua, "Iraqi forces free more districts in eastern Mosul," 11/4/16

Mosul Campaign Day 79, Jan 3, 2017

The Iraqi forces (ISF) continued to move forward in east Mosul. The Golden Division freed the industrial area next to Karama in the east. A car bomb was destroyed in the process. The Rapid Reaction forces, Federal Police and army freed Mithaq, Sumer, Morez, and Majma in the southeast. The Federal Police Chief Raed Shaker Jawdat told the press that the Islamic State’s Jund al-Khalifa, Soldiers of the Caliphate, headquarters was destroyed while going through Mithaq. Fighting continued in Dumiz, Shaimaa, Salam, Palestine, Wahda, and Sanah as well in the southeast to east. Karama in the east was declared freed twice in January, but there was a report that it was still contested. The northern front has still not reached the city, and was clearing the areas it had liberated. While much has been made of the renewed push into Mosul the actual strategy appears to be the same as before. The Golden Division backed up by the Federal Police are pushing in from the east, while trying to hook up with the Rapid Reaction forces in the southeast to encircle half of east Mosul. The move from the northeast still appears to be either behind schedule or stalled, and it doesn’t look like the northern or southern fronts are even pushing on the city.

The Islamic State was active across east Mosul. Two car bombs hit the Falah 1 and 2 neighborhoods killing 18 and wounding 13. 10 car bombs were destroyed in Karama and the southeast, and 3 more in Sumer. Mortars hit Noor in the northeast wounding six, sniper fire in Karama wounded four, and rockets killed eleven. Finally, the army in the north outside of Mosul was attacked as well.

Al Jazeera noted the insurgents extensive use of drones in the battle. IS uses them to direct suicide car bomb attacks and mortar fire, gather intelligence, and film propaganda videos. The newest adaptation is attaching small explosive devices to them and dropping them on the Iraqi forces.

There have been several reports recently about how long the siege of Mosul will take. Iraq’s Prime Minister Haidar Abadi originally said that the city would be freed by the end of 2016, but that obviously didn’t happen. He has since revised that to March 2017. The Iraqi parliament’s security committee thought that was too optimistic, while some analysts believe it could take until the summer. Spring or summer seems more realistic. There is no telling how west Mosul will be compared to the east, and the ISF is still largely fighting over areas they have contested since November in the latter. Together that points to a long slog ahead.

The number of displaced from the conflict continued to climb. The average number of people fleeing per day has increased by almost 50% from around 1,600 per day to more than 2,300 according to the United Nations. More than 13,000 people had been displaced from December 29 to January 2. On January 3 the 16^th Division north of Mosul evacuated 300 families alone. Reuters had a story on the increased attempts by people in west Mosul to get out of the city. One man interviewed said that at first people he knew were going to stay put in their homes during the battle, but now that it is dragging on they were changing their minds. Trying to escape is dangerous as the Islamic State has punished and executed people it has caught. The majority of the displaced are also in camps, which they cannot leave due to security concerns. Winter is on which means that the conditions in these camps is deteriorating, leading aid groups to scramble to provide heaters, etc.

Rudaw had a piece about the town of Khursabad to the east of Mosul. The village was liberated by the Peshmerga in late October 2016. Only three families have returned there so far. That’s because the place is largely destroyed from the fighting to capture it, there are many IEDs left behind, and there are no services. This story can be repeated throughout much of Ninewa province. It will likely be some time before large numbers of people go back to their homes.

Finally, there was a story in eKurd about the Kurds attempt to control the areas they freed. Qaraqosh, east of Mosul is controlled by the Ninewa Protection Unit a Christian militia. The Peshmerga however have stopped supplies being sent to them. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) that ran much of northern Ninewa tried to co-opt the various ethnic groups in the province before the Islamic State swept through in 2014. Since then its carrot and stick approach to controlling these groups has been frayed, and now it is attempting to re-assert its hegemony over them.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, "CTS liberates exhibitions and commercial complex areas in Mosul," Iraqi News, 1/3/17

- “Federal Police forces destroy Jund al-Khilafa headquarters near Mosul,” Iraqi News, 1/3/17

- “IS media committee’s official killed near Mosul,” Iraqi News, 1/3/17

- "Rapid Intervention Forces liberate Mithaq area in eastern Mosul," Iraqi News, 1/3/17

Al Alam, “76 ISIS Militants Killed by Iraqi Forces in Mosul,” 1/3/17

- "Iraqi Forces Retake Three ISIS-Held Regions in Eastern Mosul City," 1/3/17

Beck, John, “ISIL ramps up fight with weaponised drones,” Al Jazeera, 1/3/17

Buratha News, “Recent developments in the field during liberation operation of Mosul until 17:20 pm Tuesday 03 01 2017,” 1/3/17

Coles, Isabel, “Smuggled by boat or scaling wrecked bridges, residents escape Mosul’s besieged west,” Reuters, 1/3/17

eKurd, “Iraqi Kurds block aid to Christian militia,” 1/3/17

Face Iraq, "Security forces liberated Mithaq, Sumer, Jaffa and stormed Dumiz neighborhood on the left coast of Mosul," 1/3/17

El-Ghobashy, Tamer and Nabhan, Ali, “Iraqi Forces Shift Tactics in Mosul as Forces Advance on New Fronts,” Wall Street Journal, 12/29/16

Iraq Oil Report, "Inside Mosul: Jan. 3, 2017," 1/3/17

Al Maalomah, “Parliamentary security committee underscores the need for more than three months to resolve the battle of Mosul,” 1/3/17

Al Mada, “The evacuation of 300 families from Mosul to camps in the northeast,” 1/3/17

- “Mosul operations resume freeing five neighborhoods with the assistance of the Federal Police and Rapid Intervention Forces,” 1/1/17

Al Masalah, "The martyrdom and wounding of 31 people in two bombings in Mosul," 1/3/17

McKernan, Bethan, “Iraqi coalition forces ‘won’t be able to defeat Isis’ until the summer,” Independent, 1/3/17

Mostafa, Mohamed, “UPDATED: Iraqi forces storm 3 districts in eastern Mosul, kill 50 militants,” Iraqi News, 1/3/17

Rudaw, “Only three families return to once-thriving village east of Mosul,” 1/3/17

Shafaaq News, "Injuring 10 civilians in Daesh attacks in Mosul," 1/3/17

- "Security commander: Mosul airport and Ghazlani Camp attacked," 1/3/17

- "Urgent..dead and wounded civilians in an unidentified air strike in Mosul," 1/3/17

UN News Service, “Iraq: 13,000 people flee Mosul over five days as anti-terrorist operations intensify,” 1/3/17

Xinhua, “Iraqi forces fight heavy clashes, recapture 2 areas from IS group in Mosul,” 1/4/17

Mosul Campaign Day 78, Jan 2, 2016

The Iraqi forces (ISF) reclaimed two areas of east Mosul and freed a third. Karama and Intisar in east Mosul were declared liberated on January 1, but it appears that was premature. On January 2 the ISF said that the two neighborhoods had finally been cleared. Nassir was also freed, which had been fought over since November. The Golden Division was still trying to free the northern section of Karama. The 16^th Division pushing from the north claimed that it had finally reached the city, but that was an exaggeration. Ninewa officials criticized the division for the third time for missing Islamic State positions and shelling civilian ones instead and causing casualties. On January 2 they shelled three northern neighborhoods of Mosul destroying two car bombs. In the south the army and police have still not moved, but they were shelling Mosul as well.

As usual the Islamic State was counterattacking inside and outside of Mosul. Mortars killed four civilians and wounding two others in two separate incidents, rockets fired on Tamim killed 18 and injured five more, a sniper killed a teenager in Mazra, and a car bomb in Karama left seven fatalities and five wounded. Three car bombs were also destroyed in Yarmja, and two in Karama. U.S. General Joseph Martin told the press that IS had limited resources in east Mosul, and he believed that those were running out. For example, the general said he was seeing fewer car bombs. Coalition air strikes have also been working to diminish the militants’ offensive capabilities with one destroying a suspected car bomb factory in east Mosul. IS attacked the Mosul-Baghdad road temporarily cutting it off. 5 car bombs were also destroyed in the Tal Afar district to the west of Mosul. The Hashd there are still in a holding position, as it appears that the ISF is in no rush to free the town.

SOURCES

Adel, Loaa, “Counter-Terrorism forces liberate northern Karama neighborhood,” Iraqi News, 1/2/17

- "Federal Police forces liberate Intisar neighborhood near Mosul," Iraqi News, 1/2/17

AIN, “Killed 245 Daash freeing new area in Mosul today,” 1/2/17

Al Alam, "68 ISIS Terrorists Killed in Iraqi Army's Military Operations in Nineveh Province," 1/2/17

- “Notorious ISIS Commander Killed by Iraqi Federal Police near Mosul,” 1/2/17

- “VIDEO: Iraqi Forces Rely on Drones as They Advance in Eastern Mosul,” 1/2/17

Buratha News, “Recent development in the field in the liberation process of Mosul until 15:15 Monday 02 01 2017,” 1/2/17

Coles, Isabel and al-Rubaie, Ali, "Islamic State attacks Iraqi police near Najaf, kills seven," 1/1/17

eKurd, "Iraqi Kurdistan News in brief - January 2, 2017," 1/2/17

Face Iraq, "Sources: the martyrdom and wounding of 23 people, including 10 security force members in missile attack by Daesh east Mosul," 1/2/17

Iraq Oil Report, “Inside Mosul: Jan. 2, 2017,” 1/2/17

Kalin, Stephen, “U.S. general sees Islamic State’s capability waning in east Mosul,” Reuters, 1/2/17

Al Mada, "The killing of 10 Daesh members repelling attack on left coast of Mosul," 1/2/17

- “Mosul operations resume freeing five neighborhoods with the assistance of the Federal Police and Rapid Intervention Forces,” 1/1/17

Al Masalah, "Free Nassir neighborhood in Mosul, killing dozens of terrorists," 1/2/17

Mostafa, Mohamed, "Iraqi forces consummate recapture of eastern Mosul district," Iraqi News, 1/2/17

- "Iraqi forces recapture more districts in eastern Mosul, kill 19 militants," Iraqi News, 1/1/17

Raheem, Kareem and Hassan, Ghazwan, "Islamic State kills 24 with Baghdad car bomb, briefly cuts road to Mosul," Reuters, 2/2/17

Xinhua, “Iraqi security forces extend grip on IS stronghold in Mosul,” 1/2/17