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In August Iraq announced that it signed a preliminary deal to import natural gas from Turkmenistan. This is supposed to lesson dependency upon Iranian gas which is used to fuel Iraq’s power plants. The problem is there is no infrastructure connecting the two countries and Tehran will likely be opposed.
One expert told Al Aalem that it could take up to two years to build a pipeline from Turkmenistan to Iraq. That’s seems unfeasible for a number of reasons. For one, a Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline that would go from Turkmenistan to Azerbaijan to Georgia to Turkey and onto Europe has been under discussion since the 1990s. That has a lot of international support and yet it has never been finished. Iran would also probably object to replacing its gas with another’s. It has already said it is against the Trans-Caspian Pipeline. Given Tehran’s influence over Iraq’s ruling parties its views cannot be ignored.
This all makes this agreement largely aspirational. There are major barriers to making this a reality. Building a pipeline is problematic enough. Overcoming Iranian complaints is even bigger given how much pull it has within Baghdad.
SOURCES
Al Aalem, “Turkmenistan gas competes with Iranian gas in Iraq .. Its production is more important than imports,” 8/25/23
Lucente, Adam, “Iraq to receive gas from Turkmenistan,” Al Monitor, 8/24/23
Margheritini, Filippo Maria, “The Future of the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline,” Global Risks Insights, 7/15/22
Pannier, Bruce, “Europe’s Wait for Turkmen Natural Gas Continues,” Foreign Policy Research Institute, 9/13/22
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