New U.S. Report Says Islamic State Only Concerned With Surviving

The latest quarterly report on Operation Inherent Resolve to the United States Congress has just been released. It says that the Islamic State is degraded in both Iraq and Syria and its sole focus is upon survival.

 

According to the Defense Intelligence Agency the Islamic State is at a low point in its history. It carried out fewer attacks during the second quarter of 2023 compared to the same period in 2022. Most of those were small, opportunistic and involved just a few fighters. That’s because the group is no longer capable of large complex operations. Many of its assaults were also thwarted by the Iraqi security forces. Not only that but the group failed to carry out its annual Ramadan offensive this year. Attacks are the most public sign of the organization’s strength or weakness. Its inability to carry out anything but shootings and IEDs and especially the lack of an annual campaign highlight what a poor state IS is currently in.

 

The group is losing its leadership, failing to gain new followers, and is running out of money. It’s top leaders continued to be captured or killed. They are becoming harder to replace as well because of the lack of new recruitment. While IS is still pushing itself as the defenders of Sunnis it has largely failed to draw new members. According to the report its main source of manpower is the Al-Hol displaced camp in eastern Syria. The poor conditions there provide an ideal recruiting ground. In Iraq it has had little success. The organization has also lost much of its financing and has been unable to pay its membership. Without a strong command structure, the low level of support, and its inability to raise money the group finds itself with its back up against the wall. The U.S. believes that it’s only focused upon survival right now.

 

The American findings are supported by security reporting in the Iraqi media. For all but one week in 2023 the group has carried out single digit attacks. For the first time there was even a week with no incidents. The Islamic State once controlled large swaths of northern and western Iraq but today it has no real impact upon the country. It is isolated in desolate areas of the country. It’s hard to see IS making a comeback after the devastation the war left behind. Many Iraqis must feel it’s no longer worthwhile to back the insurgency if it means their homes and services being destroyed, mass displacement, retaliation by the security forces and Shiite domination. The costs simply outweigh the benefits.

 

SOURCES

 

Lead Inspector General, “Operation Inherent Resolve, Lead Inspector General Report To The United States Congress, April 1, 2023-June 30, 2023,” August 2023