In January Iraq was supposed to institute OPEC+ production quotas. Not only did it not do so but its exports increased. Baghdad promised to comply but it has never followed any of the recent agreements.
In March Iraq produced an average of 4.17 million barrels a day of oil. That was 30,000 barrels a day less than February but still 170,000 barrels over its quota. Not only that but the Oil Ministry was fibbing its numbers by not including oil production in Kurdistan.
As a sign of its non-compliance Iraq’s oil exports were higher in February and March than January when the OPEC+ deal was to go into effect. In January Baghdad exported an average of 3.339 million barrels a day. That went up to 3.434 million barrels in February and only slightly decreased to 3.423 million in March.
The reason why Iraq has always cheated is because it is the most oil dependent country in the world. Over 90% of the government’s revenue is based upon exports and the economy is dominated by the state. It therefore cannot afford to seriously cut back its production or sales.
The Oil Ministry has not publicized full figures for the last two months. Iraq Oil Report however estimated that Iraq earned $8.68 billion in March and $7.96 billion in February. This is especially needed now as Baghdad just increased its budget which was already the largest in history.
Federal Oil Exports, Prices, Revenues 2020-2022
|
Month |
Avg Export (Mil) |
Avg Price |
Earnings (Bil) |
|
Jan 2020 |
3.306 |
$60.14 |
$6.163 |
|
Feb |
3.391 |
$51.37 |
$5.053 |
|
Mar |
3.391 |
$32.73 |
$2.962 |
|
Apr |
3.438 |
$13.80 |
$1.51 |
|
May |
3.212 |
$21.00 |
$2.136 |
|
Jun |
2.816 |
$33.86 |
$2.871 |
|
Jul |
2.763 |
$40.70 |
$3.492 |
|
Aug |
2.597 |
$43.69 |
$3.492 |
|
Sep |
2.613 |
$40.40 |
$3.173 |
|
Oct |
2.876 |
$38.48 |
$3.457 |
|
Nov |
2.709 |
$41.77 |
$3.404 |
|
Dec |
2.846 |
$47.76 |
$4.235 |
|
2020 Avg |
2.996 |
$38.80 |
$3.493 |
|
Jan 2021 |
2.868 |
$53.29 |
$4.765 |
|
Feb |
2.96 |
$60.33 |
$5.013 |
|
Mar |
2.946 |
$63.32 |
$5.787 |
|
Apr |
2.947 |
$62.77 |
$5.549 |
|
May |
2.899 |
$65.84 |
$5.917 |
|
Jun |
2.892 |
$70.77 |
$6.143 |
|
Jul |
2.918 |
$72.00 |
$6.476 |
|
Aug |
3.054 |
$69.01 |
$6.553 |
|
Sep |
3.081 |
$73.32 |
$6.777 |
|
Oct |
3.12 |
$79.27 |
$7.666 |
|
Nov |
3.272 |
$77.33 |
$7.611 |
|
Dec |
3.277 |
$72.80 |
$7.391 |
|
2021 Avg |
3.019 |
$68.33 |
$6.303 |
|
Jan 2022 |
3.203 |
$83.82 |
$8.323 |
|
Feb |
3.314 |
$92.08 |
$8.544 |
|
Mar |
3.244 |
$110.09 |
$10.913 |
|
Apr |
3.38 |
$104.09 |
$10.554 |
|
May |
3.3 |
$111.79 |
$11.44 |
|
Jun |
3.373 |
$113.70 |
$11.505 |
|
Jul |
3.303 |
$103.60 |
$10.608 |
|
Aug |
3.286 |
$96.05 |
$9.784 |
|
Sep |
3.292 |
$89.56 |
$8.845 |
|
Oct |
3.382 |
$88.31 |
$9.258 |
|
Nov |
3.329 |
$82.41 |
$8.231 |
|
Dec |
3.332 |
$73.64 |
$7.709 |
|
2022 Avg |
3.311 |
$95.76 |
$9.64 |
|
Jan |
3.266 |
$75.69 |
$7.663 |
|
Feb |
3.184 |
$76.75 |
$7.081 |
|
Mar |
3.255 |
$73.43 |
$7.506 |
|
Apr |
3.288 |
$79.04 |
$7.699 |
|
May |
3.305 |
$71.49 |
$7.325 |
|
Jun |
3.335 |
$71.11 |
$7.115 |
|
Jul |
3.444 |
$77.69 |
$8.295 |
|
Aug |
3.423 |
$83.35 |
$8.998 |
|
Sep |
3.438 |
$91.35 |
$9.422 |
|
Oct |
3.534 |
$87.57 |
$9.594 |
|
Nov |
3.433 |
$82.66 |
$8.512 |
|
Dec |
3.486 |
$77.63 |
$8.316 |
|
2023 Avg |
3.365 |
$78.98 |
$8.127 |
|
Jan |
3.339 |
$77.53 |
$8.026 |
|
Feb |
3.434 |
- |
$7.96 |
|
Mar |
3.423 |
- |
$8.68 |
SOURCES
Bloomberg, “Iraq pumps over OPEC+ oil production target again even after lowering output,” 4/3/24
Salem, Amr, “Iraqi government increases the budget for 2024,” Iraqi News, 3/28/24
Van Heuvelen, Ben, “Iraq crude exports steady in March,” Iraq Oil Report, 4/4/24
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