Major Drop In Violence In Iraq November 2014 As Insurgency Stalls

There was a dramatic decline in violence in Iraq in November 2014. Attacks had been going down since September, but casualties remained high. Last month broke that trend with the fewest attacks, deaths and injured for the year. This was largely due to a major change in fighting in the country. While the Islamic State (IS) was still making a major push in Anbar in the rest of the country it was losing territory and largely regrouping.

In November there were a total of 593 reported security incidents. Baghdad had the most with 177, followed by 140 in Salahaddin, 110 in Anbar, 54 in Ninewa, 42 in Diyala, 35 in Babil, 24 in Kirkuk, four in Basra, three in Maysan, and one each in Irbil and Wasit. Attacks have steadily been going down since August when there were 813 attacks, followed by 690 in September, and 741 in October. That averaged out to 26.2 attacks per day in August, 23.0 attacks in September, 23.9 in October, before hitting 19.7 per day in November. In contrast, there were over 900 attacks per month from February to July averaging out to 31.3 attacks per day. During the start of 2014 the militants were ramping up their operations to soften up targets for their big summer push. Now that has stalled and the insurgents have lost the initiative in much of the country resulting in the decline in incidents.

Casualties dropped in November as well. There were 1,687 deaths for the month and 2,648 wounded. The latter consisted of 308 members of the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), 46 peshmerga, 20 Sahwa, 3 Asayesh, and 1,310 civilians, while the former was made up of 420 ISF, 85 peshmerga, 37 Sahwa, 10 Asayesh, and 2,096 civilians. Anbar had the most deaths at 560, then 488 in Baghdad, 286 in Salahaddin, 129 in Ninewa, 83 in Diyala, 72 in Babil, 51 in Kirkuk, 10 in Irbil, three in Wasit, two in Maysan and Basra each, and one in Qadisiyah. For the month that averaged out to 56.2 deaths per day and 88.2 injured. That broke a trend of very high casualties while attacks were doing down in the second half of the year. From January to May for example, there were an average of 39.5 fatalities per day. That more than doubled from June to October to 90.3 deaths per day. A major cause for the jump was a number of large scale massacres by the Islamic State in its captured territory along with heavy fighting. In November IS killed several hundred members of the Albu Nimr tribe in Anbar, but in the rest of the country it was losing ground causing a decline in both its operations and ability to inflict casualties.

Violence In Iraq By Month 2014

Date	Incidents	Dead	Wounded
JAN	1,014	1,483	2,890
FEB	955	1,285	2,531
MAR	992	1,606	2,889
APR	990	1,456	2,924
MAY	905	1,462	2,602
JUN	901	4,172	3,701
JUL	937	2,299	3,319
AUG	813	2,834	3,623
SEP	690	2,176	3,047
OCT	741	2,347	3,151 + 1,230
NOV	593	1,687	2,648

Violence In Iraq By Province Nov 2014

Province	Oct	Nov
Anbar	174 Incidents 624 Killed: 105 ISF, 24 Sahwa, 495 Civilians 487 Wounded: 69 ISF, 15 Sahwa, 403 Civilians 122 Shootings 14 IEDs 3 Suicide Bombers 6 Suicide Car Bombs 3 Car Bombs	110 Incidents 560 Killed: 96 ISF, 14 Sahwa, 450 Civilians 453 Wounded: 86 ISF, 16 Sahwa, 351 Civilians 65 Shootings 3 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 8 Suicide Car Bombs 3 Car Bombs
Babil	44 Incidents 250 Killed: 22 ISF, 228 Civilians 202 Wounded: 25 ISF, 177 Civilians 17 Shootings 19 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 3 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb	35 Incidents 72 Killed: 15 ISF, 57 Civilians 207 Wounded: 39 ISF, 168 Civilians 6 Shootings 19 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bomb 3 Car Bombs
Baghdad	152 Incidents 590 Killed: 32 ISF, 6 Sahwa, 552 Civilians 1,399 Wounded: 60 ISF, 11 Sahwa, 1,328 Civilians 48 Shootings 73 IEDs 11 Sticky Bombs 7 Suicide Car Bombs 16 Car Bombs	177 Incidents 488 Killed: 35 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 450 Civilians 1,263 Wounded: 63 ISF, 6 Sahwa, 1,194 Civilians 40 Shootings 91 IEDs 13 Sticky Bombs 8 Suicide Car Bombs 18 Car Bombs
Basra	15 Incidents 6 Killed: 6 Civilians 1 Wounded: 1 ISF 6 Shootings 2 IEDs	4 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 2 Shootings
Diyala	57 Incidents 173 Killed: 41 ISF, 42 Peshmerga, 90 Civilians 205 Wounded: 33 ISF, 16 Peshmerga, 2 Sahwa, 154 Civilians 34 Shootings 25 IEDs 2 Suicide Bombers 4 Suicide Car Bombs	42 Incidents 83 Killed: 22 ISF, 25 Peshmerga, 3 Asayesh, 33 Civilians 182 Wounded: 68 ISF, 45 Peshmerga, 10 Asayesh, 59 Civilians 26 Shootings 7 IEDs 2 Sticky Bombs 3 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb
Irbil	-	1 Incident 10 Killed: 2 ISF, 8 Civilians 23 Wounded: 23 Civilians 1 Suicide Car Bomb
Karbala	1 Incident 26 Killed: 26 Civilians 55 Wounded: 55 Civilians 4 Car Bombs	-
Kirkuk	23 Incidents 13 Killed: 1 ISF, 2 Peshmerga, 10 Civilians 56 Wounded: 5 ISF, 8 Peshmerga, 43 Civilians 11 Shootings 6 IEDs 2 Motorcycle Bombs 1 Suicide Car Bomb	24 Incidents 51 Killed: 17 Peshmerga, 34 Civilians 52 Wounded: 40 Peshmerga, 12 Civilians 16 Shootings 5 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Suicide Car Bomb 1 Car Bomb
Maysan	1 Incident 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting	3 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 2 Shootings 1 Stun Bomb
Najaf	1 Incident 1 Car Bomb	-
Ninewa	65 Incidents 201 Killed: 5 ISF, 33 Peshmerga, 163 Civilians 68 Wounded: 2 ISF, 51 Peshmerga, 15 Civilians 40 Shootings 15 IEDs 1 Suicide Bomber 1 Suicide Car Bomb 2 Car Bombs	54 Incidents 129 Killed: 52 ISF, 4 Peshmerga, 73 Civilians 31 Shootings 5 IEDs
Qadisiyah	1 Incident 1 IED	2 Incidents 1 Killed: 1 Civilian 1 Shooting
Salahaddin	205 Incidents 461 Killed: 137 ISF, 22 Sahwa, 2 Peshmerga, 300 Civilians 678 Wounded: 154 ISF, 18 Sahwa, 506 Civilians 90 Shootings 202 IEDs 1 Sticky Bomb 1 Motorcycle Bomb 8 Suicide Bombers 12 Suicide Car Bombs 13 Car Bombs	140 Incidents 286 Killed: 86 ISF, 3 Sahwa, 197 Civilians 453 Wounded: 162 ISF, 15 Sahwa, 276 Civilians 62 Shootings 140 IEDs 10 Suicide Car Bombs 1 Car Bomb
Wasit	2 Incidents 2 Killed: 2 Civilians 2 Shootings	1 Incident 3 Killed: 3 Civilians 15 Wounded: 2 ISF, 13 Civilians 1 IED

Not only did overall attacks go down for the month, but so did the number of car bombs. In October IS was able to launch 75 such attacks, which might have meant a new vehicle borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) campaign was beginning. Instead they dropped to 59 in November, which was in line with the 60 seen in September, 58 in August, 42 in July and 58 in June. In comparison there were 94 in January, 104 in February, 96 in March, 79 in April and 85 in May. Again, at the beginning of the year IS was picking up its attacks in preparation for its offensive. Since then it has used fewer VBIEDs even though it has a huge stockpile of explosives to draw upon from all the ISF bases it capturing during the summer. IS could return to the heavy use of VBIEDs in the future however as it is forced to give up on conventional military operations and return to guerrilla and terrorist tactics.

Car Bomb Attacks In Iraq Nov 2014

Date	Location	Dead	Wounded
Nov 1	Yusifiya, Babil Dora & Palestine St, Baghdad	47	119
Nov 2	Yusifiya, Babil Bayaa, Sadoun St, Sadr City, Baghdad	38	103
Nov 3	Tunis, Baghdad	36
Nov 4
Nov 5	Baiji Refinery, Salahaddin	4	7
Nov 6	Hit & Baghdadi, Anbar Baiji, Salahaddin	18	26
Nov 7	Baghdadi, Anbar Baiji x3, Salahaddin	11	30
1st Wk Totals	16	154	285
Nov 8	Southeast of Hit, Anbar Sadr City, Amin, Amil x2 & Zafaraniya, Baghdad	42	125
Nov 9
Nov 10
Nov 11	Shaab, Baghdad Kirkuk, Kirkuk Tarmiya, Salahaddin	36	27
Nov 12	Yusifiya, Babil Mansour x2 & Rasheed, Baghdad Edheim, Diyala	26	68
Nov 13	Mamil, Baghdad Bani Saad & Kirfri, Diyala	13	33
Nov 14	Ramadi x2, Anbar Adhamiya & Morocco St, Baghdad Baiji & Tikrit, Salahaddin	42	83
2nd Wk Totals	23	159	336
Nov 15	Hamamiyat, Baghdad Taji, Salahaddin	18	54
Nov 16	Abbas Ibn Firmas Sq & Amiriya, Baghdad	2	8
Nov 17	Jubba x2, Anbar Meshtal & Amiriya, Baghdad	14	42
Nov 18
Nov 19	Irbil, Irbil Kirkuk, Kirkuk Tarmiya, Salahaddin	19	37
Nov 20	Ramadi, Anbar	6	7
Nov 21
3rd Wk Totals	12	59	148
Nov 22
Nov 23	Ramadi, Anbar Yusifiya, Babil Outside Sadiya, Diyala	16	41
Nov 24	Trebil, Anbar Shaab, Baghdad	20	44
Nov 25	Dora, Baghdad	5	8
Nov 26	Sadr City, Baghdad	7	15
Nov 27
Nov 28
4th Wk Totals	7	48	68
Nov 29	Outside Samarra, Salahaddin	6	5
Nov 30
NOV TOTALS	59	426	842

Car Bombs In Iraq 2014

Month	Car Bombs
Jan	94
Feb	104
Mar	96
Apr	79
May	85
Jun	58
Jul	42
Aug	58
Sep	60
Oct	75
Nov	59

A comparison between October and November shows how fighting has dramatically changed in Iraq recently. In October, IS scored a major victory when it seized Hit and a military base just outside it and was able to surround other major cities and towns such as Baghdadi and Amiriya Fallujah in Anbar. It also started a concerted effort to take Ramadi in the middle of the month before moving onto other areas of the province. IS also massacred several hundred members of the Albu Nimr tribe at the end of October into early November to intimidate other tribes in Anbar not to oppose it. That backfired as many shiekhs came forward to join the security forces. In November IS returned to attacking Ramadi and fighting went off and on throughout central and western towns. The ISF and tribes on the other hand appeared to be giving a haphazard defense of the province. They have tried to regain lost territory in Ramadi, were able to break the siege of Baghdadi by the end of the month, did hold onto Amiriya Fallujah, but were otherwise focused upon small towns around Hit and the rest of the middle of the province rather than making a big move on any urban center. The government has said a big campaign is in the making, but that may be just talk for now. Ultimately the battle for Anbar is undecided. After the big surge in October IS attacks have stalled and failed to gain any real territory besides some neighborhoods in Ramadi. That leaves the fate of the province still up in the air.

In other governorates the ISF, militias, and peshmerga were able to put the insurgents on the defensive. In Babil, the ISF and militias were able to clear out Jurf al-Sakhr a long time IS stronghold in the northeast section of the province by the end of October. The Islamists are now regrouping in the north, and this has also led to an end of successful car bombs in southern Iraq as well as Jurf al-Sakhr was a major VBIED production area. In Diyala IS made a major push on Qara Tapa in the middle of the governorate and took it for a day, but were forced to withdraw. In comparison, in November it lost control of Edheim Dam, Sadiya and Jalawla, and then the ISF, militias and peshmerga started clearing areas of Qara Tapa. In Ninewa IS was able to surround Mount Sinjar by the second week of October, but the Yazidi and Kurdish forces there have been able to hold out. On the other hand, militants were pushed out of Rabia, Zummar, while the peshmerga picked away at small towns in the Sinjar area and attacked Makhmour and Gwar at the end of the month. Finally, in Salahaddin pro-government forces retook the entire Tuz Kharmato district in the northeast, broke the siege of the Baiji refinery, and started attacks into Balad at the end of November. Militants still appear to have freedom of movement in much of Salahaddin as shown by their capacity to carry out attacks in nearly every district. The overall picture in these provinces is that the insurgents are being pushed out of selected areas, which is curtailing their ability to operate for now.

November was a positive sign for security in Iraq. Attacks and casualties finally both went down for the lowest figures of the entire year. The IS and other groups are losing territory slowly but surely. Only in Anbar, Baghdad and Salahaddin do the armed factions still have the capabilities to attack largely when and where they want. What history shows however is that Iraq’s anti-government groups have amazing staying power and have repeatedly been able to reconstitute themselves after major losses. As IS and others lose territory they’ll likely regroup and restart their campaign all over again, but this time it will be more dispersed.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, "Two people from the popular brigades killed and five others injured by a suicide bombing south of Tikrit," 11/29/14

Al Mada, “Peshmerga popular brigades in Diyala: Daash fought with us,” 11/30/14

NINA, “Five Villages, Northeast Of Baquba, Freed,” 11/29/14

Radio Free Iraq, “29 November 2014,” Daily Updates from Anbar, 11/29/14

Shafaq News, “ISIS lose new locations southern Tikrit and the crowd re-deploy themselves,” 11/30/14

- “Peshmerga liberate surroundings of Kewer and Makhmor completely,” 11/30/14

Dropping Oil Prices And Iraq’s Budget Woes

The sudden decline in world petroleum prices is proving a daunting challenge for Iraq. The country was never able to pass the 2014 budget due to the political maneuverings of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki before the national elections and then due to all the time it took to put together Premier Haider Abadi’s new government. Now with oil prices collapsing Baghdad has decided to draw up a new draft budget leading to another delay.

Iraq is one of the most oil dependent countries in the world, so when prices recently collapsed the country was put into a bind. In October for example, the Oil Ministry exported an average of 2.432 million barrels a day, which was just around the yearly average of 2.472 million, but down from September’s 2.542. The problem was prices dropped from $102.27 per barrel in July to $97.44 in August, $90.76 in September and then $81.12 in October. That meant in that last month the nation earned $6.12 billion, the lowest since February 2011’s $6.064 billion. It also brought down 2014’s average to $98.13 per barrel the first time it has been below $100 for several years.

Iraq Oil Exports And Profits 2011-2014

Month	Avg. Exports (Mil/ Bar/ Day)	Avg. Price Per Barrel	Revenue (Bill)
Jan. 11	2.16	$90.78	$6.082
Feb.	2.20	$98.44	$6.064
Mar.	2.15	$107.13	$7.167
Apr.	2.14	$114.26	$7.342
May	2.22	$108	$7.47
Jun.	2.27	$105.17	$7.173
Jul.	2.16	$108.79	$7.311
Aug.	2.18	$104.91	$7.124
Sep.	2.10	$104.89	$6.619
Oct.	2.08	$104.04	$6.742
Nov.	2.13	$106.59	$6.833
Dec.	2.14	$106.18	$7.061
2011 Avg.	2.16	$105.00	$6.913
Jan. 12	2.10	$109.08	$7.123
Feb.	2.01	$112.92	$6.595
Mar.	2.31	$117.99	$8.472
Apr.	2.50	$116.79	$8.795
May	2.45	$103.03	$8
Jun.	2.40	$90.09	$6.453
Jul.	2.51	$97.14	$7.577
Aug.	2.56	$106.22	$8.445
Sep.	2.59	$107.59	$8.371
Oct.	2.62	$105.51	$8.578
Nov.	2.62	$104.32	$8.200
Dec.	2.34	$103.72	$7.551
2012 Avg.	2.41	$106.20	$7.846
Jan. 13	2.35	$104.92	$7.672
Feb.	2.53	$107.66	$7.644
Mar.	2.41	$103.76	$7.772
Apr.	2.62	$98.70	$7.764
May	2.48	$97.23	$7.477
Jun.	2.32	$97.40	$6.799
Jul.	2.32	$101.00	$7.272
Aug.	2.57	$104.45	$8.356
Sep.	2.07	$104.87	$6.511
Oct.	2.25	$102.57	$7.160
Nov.	2.381	$102.57	$7.324
Dec.	2.341	$102.89	$7.470
2013 Avg.	2.386	$102.33	$7.435
Jan. 14	2.228	$102.37	$7.074
Feb	2.799	$102.05	$8.001
Mar	2.396	$101.03	$7.507
Apr	2.509	$100.69	$7.582
May	2.582	$100.69	$8.077
Jun	2.423	$102.96	$7.470
Jul	2.442	$102.27	$7.742
Aug	2.375	$97.44	$7.172
Sep	2.542	$90.76	$6.916
Oct	2.432	$81.12	$6.120
2014 Avg.	2.472	$98.13	$7.373

This has thrown the whole budget drafting process into chaos. To begin with the government was facing a huge deficit that could be as high as $65 billion. That meant the cabinet and parliament had to drastically cut spending, which had ballooned in recent years, as well as find an appropriate oil price to base the 2015 budget upon. The latter has been drastically revised in just the last few days. On November 27 Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi said that the government would use $80 per barrel. Two days later the cabinet was thinking of anywhere from $64-$70 a barrel, while Finance Minister Hoshyar Zebari said that the total budget would be around $100 billion. Finally, on November 30 Premier Abadi let it be known that with falling oil prices the cabinet would have to draw up an entire new draft budget. The entire process has been plagued by problems from the beginning. Maliki stopped the 2014 budget from being passed so that he could use it against his opponents in that year’s election. Then it took several months for the new government to be formed. It quickly became apparent that the 2014 budget had to be scrapped and attention paid to 2015 instead. Things didn’t go any smoother however as parliament continually said they would bring a draft bill to the table, only to postpone it to another time. Then oil prices collapsed, and things had to start all over again.

The last several years Iraq has benefited from high petroleum prices, but that has now come to an end. Oil production has climbed slowly, and has even gone up this year despite the loss of the Kirkuk pipeline to the insurgency, while prices stayed above $100 per barrel for three years. As a result, Baghdad has passed larger and larger budgets each year. Now it has to deal with austerity as Maliki used up much of the country’s reserves to deal with the security crisis and oil prices are collapsing. That has thrown the entire drafting process out of whack resulting in delay after delay after delay. It’s unclear when a budget will actually be presented to parliament. That actually makes the current situation in line with previous budgets that have regularly been passed late. The questions now are when it becomes a reality will it be based upon realistic predictions about the country’s revenue or will it lead to a huge new deficit as many predict. If handled incorrectly this could create to a brand new foreign debt, which was largely taken care of after 2003.

SOURCES

Al Mada, “The new budget: 35.7 trillion for the army .. not all functions appreciated Minister,” 11/29/14

Ministry of Oil, “Iraq Crude Oil Exports – October 2014,” 10/25/14

New Sabah, “$ 6 billion in oil revenues last October,” 11/2/14

Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, “Iraqi PM Says Low Oil Prices Ruined 2015 Budget,” 11/30/14

Al Rayy, “Cabinet re-pricing of oil in the budget to $ 64 or less to cover the deficit,” 11/29/14

Reuters, “UPDATE 1-Iraq expects 2015 budget based on $80 per barrel oil price – minister,” 11/27/14

Shafaq News, “Parliament agrees to cancel 2014 budget and transfers employment grades and salar scale for 2015,” 11/5/14