Mosul Campaign Day 266 Jul 9 2017

Prime Minister Abadi during his tour of Mosul (Al Sumaria)

The much expected victory announcement in Mosul was delayed for another day. That wasn’t apparent at first. State TV claimed that the city was liberated. The prime minister’s office than released a statement that he was in the city to declare it freed. The premier arrived in Mosul and did a tour to visit with units from the Iraqi forces (ISF) to congratulate them, and said he was in the “liberated city.” He then returned to the Ninewa Operations command without making the actual victory speech. A spokesman for the cabinet told the press that the PM would not give his address until all areas of Mosul were cleared. That’s expected to occur at the Nouri Mosque, where Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi announced the caliphate. The Iraqi forces and government have been anticipating the end of the battle for days now. Many Iraqis are not waiting and there were celebrations throughout the country.

Musings On Iraq In The News

I was interviewed by Hollie McKay in “ISIS defeated, but not destroyed, as terror group still holds strategic swaths of Iraq” for Fox News, and by Paul Iddon in “Anticipating Mosul’s post-Islamic State future” for Al Araby, and by Paul again in "What does Turkey have to fear about Kurdish independence?" for Rudaw. Was quoted by Ben Watson in “What the Largest Battle of the Decade Says About the Future of War” for Defense One.

Mosul Campaign Day 265 Jul 8 2017

Federal Police celebrating in west Mosul (Sky News)

The news of the day was whether Mosul was finally liberated or not. The Joint Operations Command got things underway by saying that the city was free, but then added that there were small pockets of resistance. That last caveat was missed by most leading the command to issue a clarification that there were still a few meters of the city under Islamic State control. It then added that a victory announcement was imminent and that fighting would be over in a few hours. Units of the Iraqi forces (ISF) were seen celebrating in the streets. In fact, at the start of the day there were still three contested neighborhoods, Maidan, Qalahat and Shahwan that were under attack by the Golden Division and the army’s 9^th Division. By nighttime the Islamic State was reduced to small pockets, but were holding a number of civilian captives. It was predicted that by July 9 those would be wrapped up. Prime Minister Haidar Abadi already flew into the Qayara base northeast of Mosul, and was expected to give a victory speech. The campaign took nine long months. It witnessed some of the toughest urban fighting seen in years. While the war against the Islamic State is far from over, this will be a huge symbolic and political victory for the Iraqi government. Three years ago, IS declared its caliphate in Mosul, and now the Iraqi forces are standing over the rubble of its state.

3,230 Dead, 1,128 Wounded In Iraq June 2017

There were 3,320 reported deaths and 1,135 wounded in Iraq in June 2017. Almost all of those casualties occurred in Ninewa because of the Mosul battle. Violence in the rest of the country remains at an all-time low.

Mosul Campaign Day 264 Jul 7 2017

Smoke rises from fighting in west Mosul’s Old City (AP)

The Islamic State is now down to three neighborhoods in the Old City of West Mosul. July 6, they held Bab al-Tob in the south, Qurnish, Shahwan, Maidan, and Najafi Street along the Tigris River. The Iraqi forces (IFS) announced Maidan and Najafi Street were seized. The insurgents were still desperately fighting, and launched a counter attack with 50-100 fighters into Bab al-Lakash, which was recently freed, Bab al-Tob, and Maidan, throwing the ISF back on their heels in some of those areas. Still the end is in sight, and Iraqi commanders continue to try to claim they are nearly done. Federal Police commander General Raed Shakir Jawadat said his forces were 99% finished with their combat missions, which contradicted his own statement on July 3 that they had completed their tasks already. The Golden Division was more circumspect simply stating that things were winding down. Yesterday there were a few reports that Mosul had been completely freed, and Prime Minister Haidar Abadi already congratulated the ISF on their victory in the city. This is the norm for Iraqi propaganda that is obsessed with claiming real and imagined advances.

Mosul Campaign Day 263 Jul 6 2017

The fighting in west Mosul was down to the last five neighborhoods and areas. Bab al-Tob, which was declared freed yesterday, was now cut off and surrounded. It is one of the southern entrances to the Old City district. The other areas still under Islamic State control were all along the Tigris River. That included Qurnish, Shahwan, Najafi Street, and Maidan. There were a few reports that claimed the entire city was freed, but that seemed to be propaganda. Various military and political leaders said that July 6 was the day victory was to be declared in the campaign, but that appeared to be a date set by politics not the situation on the ground.

Mosul Campaign Day 262 Jul 5 2017

Iraqi forces helping a family escape the Islamic State through a hole in a wall in Old City district of West Mosul (Al Jazeera)

The Iraqi forces (ISF) were cleaning up the south in the Old City as well as pushing to the Tigris River in west Mosul. Bab al-Tob, one of the southern entrances to the area was declared freed for the second time. The Federal police took Sargkhana Street, Tawalib, Bab al-Saray again, and Katunya for the third time. Maidan, one neighborhood away from the Tigris, Nujafi, and Shahwan, which is on the Tigris were under siege as well. Federal Police chief General Raed Shakir Jawadat claimed only four neighborhoods were left under Islamic State control, Nujafi, Bab al-Saray, Bab al-Lakash, and Bab al-Jadid. Interestingly, all of those except Nujafi have been cleared before, and he did not include other areas which were still contested.