Violence In Iraq Picks Up As Summer Approaches

Violence in Iraq is currently following a seasonal pattern, and that’s shown in the number of attacks and deaths each month. During the winter, militants have reduced their operations and casualties have gone down, while in the summer, the pace picks up, and so do the death counts. That has meant for the last three months the number of security incidents and people killed have steadily climbed upward.

In June 2011, the three sources for Iraqi deaths showed different trends. Iraq Body Count had 371 deaths, Iraq’s ministries had 271, while icasualties had 204. The first two showed increases from the previous month, while the last went down. On its website, icasualties notes that the actual number of deaths in Iraq are much higher than what they report, and that’s because they only rely upon western sources, which misses dozens of deaths each month. That accounts for the consistently low numbers provided by the group, and its different pattern from the other two. All together, June saw an average of 282 deaths, and 9.4 killed per day. That was up from 8.1 in May, and 7.1 in April. 

Monthly Iraqi Death Counts And Averages Jun. 09 – Jun. 11

Month	Iraq Body Count	Icasualties	Iraqi Ministries	Avg. Monthly Deaths	Avg. Daily Deaths
Jun. 09	491	367	438	432	13.9
Jul.	394	240	275	303	9.7
Aug.	586	439	456	493	15.9
Sep.	300	158	203	220	7.3
Oct.	404	320	410	378	12.1
Nov.	206	106	122	144	4.8
Dec.	457	287	367	370	11.9
Jan. 10	260	135	196	197	6.3
Feb.	297	236	352	295	10.5
Mar.	334	183	367	294	9.5
Apr.	380	259	328	322	10.7
May	377	279	337	331	10.6
Jun.	368	176	284	276	9.2
Jul.	430	534	535	499	16.1
Aug.	517	363	426	435	14.0
Sep.	252	174	273	233	7.7
Oct.	311	185	293	263	8.4
Nov.	302	174	171	215	7.1
Dec.	217	128	151	165	5.3
Jan. 11	387	210	259	285	9.2
Feb.	250	216	167	212	7.5
Mar.	307	171	247	241	7.7
Apr.	285	152	211	214	7.1
May	378	223	177	252	8.1
Jun.	371	204	271	282	9.4

If you look back to the beginning of 2010, a definite pattern emerges for Iraq’s casualties. From January to June, the average number of deaths per day was relatively flat. They started at 6.3 in January, than went up to10.5 in February, before leveling off at 9.5 in March, 10.7 in April, 10.6 in May, and 9.2 in June. In July and August however, deaths spiked to 16.1 for the former and 14.0 in the latter, before going back down to 5.3 in December. 2011 has followed the same trend. In January, there were 9.2 deaths per day, then hitting a plateau at 7.5 in February, 7.2 in March, and 7.1 in April, before slightly going up to 8.1 in May, and 9.4 in June. This up and down pattern follows the seasons with fewer deaths in the winter and higher counts in the spring and summer.

The number of average deaths also mirrors attacks in Iraq. According to estimates based upon charts provided by AKE, a British security firm that operates within the country, which are published in Iraq Business News, militant operations have also gone up and down with the seasons. In the first week of June 2010 for example, there were around 92 attacks. They then went up and down, before steadily declining with 75 in the first week of October, to 65 in November, to 58 in December, and then 30 at the beginning of January 2011. Since then, security incidents have gone up as the temperature has gotten warmer and warmer. At the start of February there were around 41 attacks, 55 in March, 52 in April, 70 in May, and approximately 95 in the opening week of June.

This is a decided change from 2009, which had a monthly ebb and flow. For the twelve months of that year, casualties went up and down every month. For instance, in June 2009 there were an average of 13.9 deaths per day, then 9.7 in July, 15.9 in August, 7.3 in September, 12.1 in October, 4.8 in November, and 11.9 in December.

The reasons for the change in deaths then, has to be related to something other than the weather if 2009 is compared to 2010-2011. Perhaps the cause is due to a weakening of the insurgency, and an increase in Special Group activity. In 2009-2010, almost all of the violence in Iraq was due to Sunni militants. In that first year, they obviously had more capabilities as they were able to pull off larger and more deadly operations every other month, hence the up and down pattern. Starting in 2010 however, they appeared to have lost some of their power. 2011 has been different because Iranian-supported Special Groups have dramatically increased their attacks since the spring to coincide with American pressure on Baghdad to allow a troop extension past the December 31 withdrawal deadline. That is probably the reason why security incidents have steadily increased this year, and casualties along with them. Although the Special Groups concentrate upon American bases and patrols, there is always the chance for collateral damage. Shiite militants can be expected to keep up their pace of operations until the fate of American forces are finally decided upon by Iraq’s politicians. After that, casualties may actually go down as Iran cuts off their supplies to their Iraqi friends, and a weakened insurgency takes back responsibility for most attacks. Despite all these ups and downs, violence is still at its lowest levels in Iraq, and will hopefully remain so for the foreseeable future.

SOURCES

Alsumaria, “Iraq death toll rises to 271 killed in June,” 7/1/11

Drake, John, “Weekly Security Update for 2nd Dec 2010,” 12/2/10
- “Weekly Security Update for 15th December 2010,” Iraq Business News, 12/15/10
- “Weekly Security Update for 30th of June 2011,” Iraq Business News, 6/30/11

icasualties, “Operation Iraqi Freedom”

Iraq Body Count, “Recent Events”