Thursday, October 6, 2022

Islamic State’s Summer Offensive Ends With A Whimper


September 2022 marked the end of the Islamic State’s annual summer offensive. It paled in comparison to previous years in the number and types of attacks the group was able to carry out.

 

There were a total of 41 security incidents reported in the Iraqi media in September. That compared to 57 in August.


 

There was only 1 incident by pro-Iran groups during the month when they fired rockets at Irbil province. In August these factions carried out 5 attacks and 9 in July. The incidents have been declining as the Hashd factions have been more concerned about the formation of the next Iraqi government.

 

There were also 3 mortar and rocket attacks upon the Green Zone in Baghdad. One of them landed right in front a group of Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) wounding 7 of them. The first two incidents came as the Sadrists stormed the Green Zone in an unsuccessful attempt to stop parliament form re-affirming its support for Speaker Halbusi in a move towards picking a new prime minister. It would seem the Sadrists would be behind the shelling of the Green Zone but they denied it. It could still be them however. Moqtada al-Sadr is becoming desperate to try to block his rivals and violence is one of his last tools.

 

That left 37 incidents by the Islamic State. There were 49 in August and 37 in July which was when the summer campaign began. Before that there were 26 incidents in June. In 2021 IS incidents went from 62 in June to 90 in July and 103 in August before dropping to 70 in September. This is the latest sign of the decline of the insurgency which is barely holding on in Iraq.

 

IS incidents took place in Anbar (1), Babil (2), Baghdad (6), Diyala (10), Kirkuk (8), Ninewa (5), Salahaddin (4) and Sulaymaniya (1). They left 9 dead and 57 wounded. 1 Hashd, 3 ISF and 5 civilians were killed along with 13 civilians, 16 Hashd and 28 ISF who were injured.

 

Of the 37 attacks by IS during September only 6 were offensive. Those took place in Babil (2), Kirkuk (1), Salahaddin (2), and Sulaymaniya (1). The other 31 were aimed at keeping people and the government out of IS areas. None were in an urban area. Again this showed how limited the Islamic State is. Even during a campaign it can only increase the same types of operations it usually carries out and only in areas where it's present.

 

Security Incidents In Iraq By Province

Province

Sep 1-7

Sep 8-14

Sep 15-21

Sep 22-28

Sep 29=30

Totals

Anbar

-

-

-

1

-

1

Babil

1

1

-

-

-

2

Baghdad

1

1

1

5/2

0/1 M

9/3 M

Diyala

3

1

3

2

1

10

Irbil

1 Pro-Iran

-

-

-

-

1 Pro-Iran

Kirkuk

3

-

4

1

-

8

Ninewa

-

1

3

-

1

5

Salahaddin

1

1

1

1

-

4

Sulaymaniya

1

-

-

-

-

1

TOTAL

11/1 Pro-Iran

5

12

10/2

3/1

41/1/3

 

Casualties In Iraq By Province

Province

Sep 1-7

Sep 8-14

Sep 15-21

Sep 22-28

Sep 29-30

Totals

Babil

2 (2W)

-

-

-

-

2 (2W)

Baghdad

1 (1K)

3 (3W)

1 (1K)

10 (1K, 9W)

-

15 (3K, 12W)

Diyala

7 (2K, 5W)

1 (1W)

6 (1K, 5W)

4 (1K, 3W)

1 (1W)

19 (4K, 15W)

Kirkuk

5 (5W)

-

-

4 (4W)

-

9 (9W)

Ninewa

-

4 (4W)

11 (2K, 9W)

-

1 (1W)

16 (2K, 14W)

Salahaddin

-

4 (4W)

-

-

-

4 (4W)

Sulaymaniya

8 (8W)

-

-

-

-

8 (8W)

TOTAL

23 (3K, 20W)

12 (12W)

18 (4K, 14W)

18 (2K, 16W)

2 (2W)

73 (9K, 64W)

 

Attacks by Pro-Iran Groups

 

July Total 9

8/5/22

IED – Turkish Mall, Baghdad

8/15/22

Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa

8/21/22

IED on convoy carrying supplies to US - Salahaddin

8/25/22

Rockets – Turkish army base, Ninewa

8/26/22

IED on Australia diplomatic convoy - Baghdad

8/28/22

Rockets found - Sulaymaniya

 

August Total 5 (1)

9/5/22

Rockets – Irbil

 

September Total 1

 

Security In Iraq 2021-22

Week

Security

Incidents

(Total/By IS)

Dead

(Total/By IS)

Wounded

(Total/By IS)

Jan 1-7

21/2

13

19

Jan 8-14

17/3

12

6

Jan 15-21

20/3

52

133

Jan 22-28

10/3

13

12

Jan 29-31

9/1

2

6

JAN

77/13

92

176

Feb 1-7

19/2

11

23

Feb 8-14

11/3

4

8

Feb 15-21

20/7

11

23

Feb 22-28

13/4

13

23

FEB

63/16

39

77

Mar 1-7

19/5

5

8

Mar 8-14

12/2

13

15

Mar 15-21

24/6

8

7

Mar 22-28

14/2

8

13

Mar 29-31

9/5

2

1

MAR

79/20

39

44

Apr 1-7

16/10

3

5

Apr 8-14

15/6

6

18

Apr 15-21

32/4

19

44

Apr 22-28

31/6

15

42

Apr 29-30

12/1

11

23

APR

107/27

54

132

May 1-7

36/8

33

37

May 8-14

31/5

14

25

May 15-21

15/2

3

3

May 22-28

20/9

3

24

May 29-31

11

6

11

MAY

113/24

59

100

Jun 1-7

12/5

6

29

Jun 8-14

22/10

7

7

Jun 15-21

24/4

14

14

Jun 22-28

19/2

10

17

Jun 29-30

5

-

21

JUN

83/21

36

87

Jul 1-7

38/9

11

35

Jul 8-14

25/4

7

17

Jul 15-21

20/1

48

75

Jul 22-28

10/1

10

7

Jul 29-31

16/5

30

30

JUL

110/20

106

164

Aug 1-7

44/5

12

19

Aug 8-14

31/6

17

23

Aug 15-21

25/8

12

18

Aug 22-28

21/9

8

10

Aug 29-31

12/2

5

12

AUG

133/30

54

82

Sep 1-7

21/3

12

24

Sep 8-14

28/3

24

36

Sep 15-21

13/1

5

17

Sep 22-28

17/4

13

9

Sep 29-30

2

-

-

SEP

81/11

54

86

Oct 1-7

17

11

22

Oct 8-14

14/1

4

13

Oct 15-21

9/2

3

2

Oct 22-28

21/1/1

36

42

Oct 29-31

11/1

7

7

OCT

72/6/1

61

86

Nov 1-7

20/2

3

20

Nov 8-14

15/1

11

18

Nov 15-21

14/4

2

4

Nov 22-28

15/4

10

14

Nov 29-30

3/1

1

3

NOV

67/12

27

59

Dec 1-7

17/2

29

22

Dec 8-14

14/4

4

6

Dec 15-21

22/8

11

12

Dec 22-28

18/8

11

27

Dec 29-31

7/1

5

4

DEC

78/23

56

67

Jan 1-7, 2022

18/9

3

4

Jan 8-14

35/21

3

18

Jan 15-21

12/5

17

12

Jan 22-28

16/3

8

19

Jan 29-31

6/2

2

6

JAN

87/41

33

59

Feb 1-7

11/3

1

10

Feb 8-14

14/6

8

3

Feb 15-21

9/1

-

11

Feb 22-28

8/4

1

5

FEB

42/14

10

29

Mar 1-7

7/3

1

-

Mar 8-14

18/3/1

6

5

Mar 15-21

10/4

5

6

Mar 22-28

6/1

7

4

Mar 29-31

4/1

-

5

MAR

46/12/1

19

21

Apr 1-7

16/8

-

6

Apr 8-14

21/7

8

25

Apr 15-21

22/2

10

22

Apr 22-28

44/4

14

44

Apr 29-30

6/1

2

6

APR

111/22

34

103

May 1-7

31/3

8

25

May 8-14

9/2

2

7

May 15-21

18/6

10

6

May 22-28

13/1

21

11

May 29-31

2/1

-

2

MAY

73/13

41

51

Jun 1-7

6/2

-

8

Jun 8-14

12/4

1

9

Jun 15-21

10/2

5

2

Jun 22-28

12/6

1

14

Jun 29-30

-

-

-

JUN

40/14

7

33

Jul 1-7

7/1

6

11

Jul 8-14

3

-

2

Jul 15-21

11/2

14

16

Jul 22-28

18/7

9

21

Jul 29-31

4

4

4

JUL

43/6

33

54

Aug 1-7

9/1

6

15

Aug 8-14

14

2

14

Aug 15-21

7/2

-

6

Aug 22-28

23/4

14

15

Aug 29-31

4

2

4

AUG

57/7/1

24

54

Sep 1-7

11/1

3

20

Sep 8-14

5

-

12

Sep 15-21

12

4

14

Sep 22-28

10/2 M

2

16

Sep 29-30

3/1 M

-

2

SEP

41/1/3 M

9

64

 

Violence By Province Sep, 2022

Province

Violence

2018 Avg

2019 Avg

2020 Avg

2021 Avg

2022 Avg

Anbar

1 Incident

 

1 Gunfire

12.6 incidents/

month

8.6 incidents/ month

7.0 incidents/ month

4.6 incidents/ month

2.75 incidents/month

Babil

2 Incidents

2 Wounded

2 Civilians

 

1 Shooting

1 Mortar

4.0 incidents/month

3.0 incidents/month

2.75 incidents/month

2.5 incidents/month

1.75 incidents/month

Baghdad

9/3 Militia Incidents

3 Killed

1 ISF

2 Civilians

12 Wounded

3 Civilians

9 ISF

 

4 Shootings

4 IEDs

4 Rockets

1 Mortars

33.0 incidents/month

11.6 incidents/month

7.3 incidents/month

5.6 incidents/ month

3.2 incidents/month

Diyala

10 Incidents

4 Killed

2 Civilians

2 ISF

15 Wounded

6 Civilians

9 ISF

 

5 Shootings

5 IEDs

34.5 incidents/month

30.0 incidents/month

30.6 incidents/month

23.2 incidents/month

14.7 incidents/month

Irbil

1 Pro-Iran Incident

 

1 Rockets

 

 

 

 

 

Kirkuk

8 Incidents

9 Wounded

9 ISF

 

3 Shootings

4 IEDs

1 Mortar

36.5 incidents/month

18.6 incidents/month

13.9 incidents/month

11.6 incidents/month

10.1 incidents/month

Ninewa

5 Incidents

2 Killed

1 Civilian

1 Hashd

14 Wounded

2 Civilians

12 Hashd

 

1 Shooting

1 IED

20.0 incidents/month

14.0 incidents/month

10.6 incidents/month

8.4 incidents/month

6.3 incidents/month

Salahaddin

4 Incidents

4 Wounded

4 Hashd

 

2 Shootings

2 IEDs

21.7 incidents/month

10.6 incidents/month

11.2 incidents/month

11.5 incidents/month

6.2 incidents/month

Sulaymaniya

1 Incident

8 Wounded

8 ISF

 

1 Shooting

1 Grenade

 

 

 

 

 

 

SOURCES

 

Reuters, "Rockets hit central Baghdad for second day as unrest escalates," 9/29/22

- "Three rockets land in Iraq's Green Zone: Report," 9/28/22

 

Al Sumaria, "Again .. Shelling of Green Zone," 9/28/22

- "Four missiles fell on Erbil," 9/5/22

 

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